I've seen this happen before. December 28, 2007 AAPL closed at 199.83. By February 22, 2008, AAPL closed at $119.46. This is a 41.3% drop in less than two months.
AAPL is manipulated intentionally - no doubt. This article in WSJ was definitely a contract hit on AAPL. SEC really needs to be investigating articles like this. I'm loaded on AAPL shares (probably more than I should be), and I can tell you that (the first time I had witnessed such a sharp drop in my portfolio) in early 2008 I was scared. But I stuck around and did well over the following years, continuing to buy AAPL. So, this is just one of those times when AAPL goes on sale before it takes off again. I would not be saying this now, but I have seen this happen many times since I started investing in AAPL in 2007.
It looks scary every time, and those who cannot stand the heat, sell at a loss, and the shrewd ones scoop up those shares at a discount and profit tremendously. So, I'm not worried this time, but Apple does need to innovate more - iOS is a fine product, but without innovation, competitors are going to build a product that is at least as good or even better. I'm hoping this year is going to be revolutionary (not evolutionary) for Apple.
The same bullshit happened last year about iPhone 4S weak demand and Apple cut the parts order .
They are trying to get maximum F.U.D. for opex.
Now that being said, Apple is still decelerating pretty heavily. The iphone 4 sold twice the number of phones as the 3gs, the iphone 4s sold twice the number of phones the 4, but the iphone 5 is expected to barely sell 20% more than the 4s. Thats one hell of a drop on "growth".
We will see the real number at earnings, but even if they beat 50 millions, keep in mind they launch in many more countries for the first quarter of the iphone sales, and this include China. To give you an example , to keep the same paste Apple needs to sell over 80 millions iphones.
My estimates are for 48 millions phones with all the new countries included.
On the bright side I see 25 millions ipads, mostly due by the huge succes of the mini but counter by severe drop in sales of the regular ipad. Apple should had sold 25 millions big ipads this year, but without the mini I think they would had barely made last year numbers of 17 millions. With the mini, I think they sold about 15 millions 10" ipads and about 10 millions ipad mini, for a total of 25 millions.
if memory serves me correctly, this happened before, a rumor came out based on supply firms having orders temporariliy cut, only to be informed later that this is quite normal fluctuation in the supply lines due to the fact that components at the foxcon factory assemby lines were stockpiled to meet demand. It later came out that the rumor mill knew this and that the traders latching on to the data knew it too, but were using the knowledge to scare investors into dumping so they can buy at lower prices. This is quite normal behavoir at wall street. NO NEWS HER
This is an actual representation of the true value of Apple at any one time¡ There's nothing going on here except standard trading¡
That is absolutely false.
The SEC can investigate and punish people for manipulation of stock prices. So if it turns out that someone is intentionally manipulating stock value, it could be a felony.
It won't be easy to prove, but your claim that there's nothing here but standard trading is just plain false.
The SEC can investigate and punish people for manipulation of stock prices. So if it turns out that someone is intentionally manipulating stock value, it could be a felony.
It won't be easy to prove, but your claim that there's nothing here but standard trading is just plain false.
The SEC can investigate and punish people for manipulation of stock prices. So if it turns out that someone is intentionally manipulating stock value, it could be a felony.
It won't be easy to prove, but your claim that there's nothing here but standard trading is just plain false.
Good. For a second I was starting to believe what he told me. Thanks!
The SEC can investigate and punish people for manipulation of stock prices. So if it turns out that someone is intentionally manipulating stock value, it could be a felony.
It won't be easy to prove, but your claim that there's nothing here but standard trading is just plain false.
He was being sarcastic. Notice the upside-down exclamation points.
Christmas is in the 1st quarter and the 2nd quart is Jan-Mar. All numbers in millions
2008
Q1 2.351
Q2 1.703
2009
Q1 4,363
Q2 3,793
2010
Q1 8,737
Q2 8,752
2011
Q1 16,240
Q2 18,650
2012
Q1 37.044
Q2 35,100
Most years, the sales dropped significantly from Q1 to Q2. The exceptions were when they had new product introductions in Q1 - which isn't the case this year so isn't really applicable.
Of course it is obviously stock manipulation. Of course nothing is going to happen. The reason for this is that the manipulators (big banks, hedge funds, insurance companies etc) are the ones who own the government and so have basically got a license to do whatever they want. Mom and Pop investors get their lunch eaten. Nothing new here.
The iphone 5 is just not that a great phone. I think the 4S is a better looking and I found worked better IMO. The sleek lines and chamfered edges of the 5 is so prone to chipping, a case is a requirement. I am on my third. The first was a dud due to the touch screen, the second a chip on the edge.
When you look at the nexus 4 in comparison or the Sammy they are I hate to say it cheaper and have better functionality.
So when the earnings call comes it will be interesting to revisit this topic and see if the WSJ was correct.
I think you are missing the big picture here. Everybody does not upgrade on the month of a new version of a phone. There is a staggered number of phones due for upgrade every month. If Apple does not produce an updated phone every 6 months then a well timed upgrade like the SGIII can take market share away for over 3 or 4 months until the next refresh comes along. Apple does not want to be selling year old tech when they can update on a more regular basis. There are trade offs involved. The new phone will be an evolutionary improvement not a big step up like in the past. Apple can respond to Samsung just like they are responding to Apple.
As far as the drop in orders, I am not at all clear on whether this rumor is substantive. If the order change is a real reflection of Apples revised expectation there are several possibilities: China mobile does not want the iPhone 5, or wants an option for a less expensive iPhone, The problems producing the iMac may be causing a drop in orders if this is screens in general rather than just the iPhone5. Demand may be dropping for the Apple display since knock off displays with the 27 inch screens are making it into the market. Apple may have over estimated demand for the iPhone 5, or a switch from the Samsung displays maybe slowed by quality control issues. IPad sales 4 could be lower because of the iPad mini which uses a much lower quality display. The Retina macbook may be having a slow down in sales waiting for the Haswell update. This list is endless and that is the point.
All of the above is speculation, not facts. We will get facts from the conference call. Until then the stock is vulnerable to rumors because the amount of money at stake is so damn large. Apple is 15% of the nasdaq 100. A $3 billion swing in sales which is relatively small given the total quarterly profits Apple makes (approx 10-15 billion in Q1) would have an outsized effect on Apple's stock price. A company which makes 10 Billion in one quarter may see its stock drop by another 30%. There are a lot of people who have already made a lot of money on Apple and see no reason not to take profits before the conference call. When 25 million shares are traded in one day only 3% of the companies shares have traded hands. It would be interesting to see what percentage of Apple's shares are held over the long term. Short term investors could only hold 10% of the company and still determine the direction of the stock. Over the long term earnings will always solve this problem if there is growth in income. Which brings us back to the coming earnings announcement. If it shows that Apple has been doing quite well, I would think that an investigation of this type of rumor would definitely be in order.
The iphone 5 is just not that a great phone. I think the 4S is a better looking and I found worked better IMO. The sleek lines and chamfered edges of the 5 is so prone to chipping, a case is a requirement. I am on my third. The first was a dud due to the touch screen, the second a chip on the edge.
When you look at the nexus 4 in comparison or the Sammy they are I hate to say it cheaper and have better functionality.
So when the earnings call comes it will be interesting to revisit this topic and see if the WSJ was correct.
There is no Android device that can match the User Experience of an Apple device.
There's a lot more to Apple domination of consumer satisfaction (for every single iPhone that has ever existed) than a bullet-list of features. As for this "decreased iPhone 5 demand" nonsense, I don't buy it. Not after What Apple's been doing in the rest of the mobile space with the iPad. And certainly not in light of the continued strength of Apple's mindshare. Why would anything change with the iPhone 5? It wouldn't, because the iPhone 5 is best iPhone Apple has ever made. In fact, the experience - with all the enhancements, is markedly different from the 4 and 4S. After using the 5, I couldn't go back.
As for the look of the iPhone 5, it's easily the most elegant on the market.
Christmas is in the 1st quarter and the 2nd quart is Jan-Mar. All numbers in millions
2008
Q1 2.351
Q2 1.703
2009
Q1 4,363
Q2 3,793
2010
Q1 8,737
Q2 8,752
2011
Q1 16,240
Q2 18,650
2012
Q1 37.044 14 WEEK QUARTER
Q2 35,100
Most years, the sales dropped significantly from Q1 to Q2. The exceptions were when they had new product introductions in Q1 - which isn't the case this year so isn't really applicable.
Yep, if there's anything fund managers hate it's making money.
I was talking about them writing the calls, not owning them.
Quote:
Writing a naked call is an options strategy that has significant risks since the stock might move upwards. By its nature, writing a naked call is a bearish strategy that aims for a profit by collecting only the option premium. Due to the risks involved, most investors hedge their bets by protecting some of their downside with stock or other call options (at higher strike prices).
Comments
AAPL is manipulated intentionally - no doubt. This article in WSJ was definitely a contract hit on AAPL. SEC really needs to be investigating articles like this. I'm loaded on AAPL shares (probably more than I should be), and I can tell you that (the first time I had witnessed such a sharp drop in my portfolio) in early 2008 I was scared. But I stuck around and did well over the following years, continuing to buy AAPL. So, this is just one of those times when AAPL goes on sale before it takes off again. I would not be saying this now, but I have seen this happen many times since I started investing in AAPL in 2007.
It looks scary every time, and those who cannot stand the heat, sell at a loss, and the shrewd ones scoop up those shares at a discount and profit tremendously. So, I'm not worried this time, but Apple does need to innovate more - iOS is a fine product, but without innovation, competitors are going to build a product that is at least as good or even better. I'm hoping this year is going to be revolutionary (not evolutionary) for Apple.
Quote:
Originally Posted by crazy_mac_lover
The same bullshit happened last year about iPhone 4S weak demand and Apple cut the parts order .
They are trying to get maximum F.U.D. for opex.
Now that being said, Apple is still decelerating pretty heavily. The iphone 4 sold twice the number of phones as the 3gs, the iphone 4s sold twice the number of phones the 4, but the iphone 5 is expected to barely sell 20% more than the 4s. Thats one hell of a drop on "growth".
We will see the real number at earnings, but even if they beat 50 millions, keep in mind they launch in many more countries for the first quarter of the iphone sales, and this include China. To give you an example , to keep the same paste Apple needs to sell over 80 millions iphones.
My estimates are for 48 millions phones with all the new countries included.
On the bright side I see 25 millions ipads, mostly due by the huge succes of the mini but counter by severe drop in sales of the regular ipad. Apple should had sold 25 millions big ipads this year, but without the mini I think they would had barely made last year numbers of 17 millions. With the mini, I think they sold about 15 millions 10" ipads and about 10 millions ipad mini, for a total of 25 millions.
if memory serves me correctly, this happened before, a rumor came out based on supply firms having orders temporariliy cut, only to be informed later that this is quite normal fluctuation in the supply lines due to the fact that components at the foxcon factory assemby lines were stockpiled to meet demand. It later came out that the rumor mill knew this and that the traders latching on to the data knew it too, but were using the knowledge to scare investors into dumping so they can buy at lower prices. This is quite normal behavoir at wall street. NO NEWS HER
That is absolutely false.
The SEC can investigate and punish people for manipulation of stock prices. So if it turns out that someone is intentionally manipulating stock value, it could be a felony.
It won't be easy to prove, but your claim that there's nothing here but standard trading is just plain false.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta
That is absolutely false.
The SEC can investigate and punish people for manipulation of stock prices. So if it turns out that someone is intentionally manipulating stock value, it could be a felony.
It won't be easy to prove, but your claim that there's nothing here but standard trading is just plain false.
http://appleinsider.com/articles/10/11/23/apple_analysts_under_sec_investigation_for_channel_checks.html
Originally Posted by jragosta
That is absolutely false.
The SEC can investigate and punish people for manipulation of stock prices. So if it turns out that someone is intentionally manipulating stock value, it could be a felony.
It won't be easy to prove, but your claim that there's nothing here but standard trading is just plain false.
Good. For a second I was starting to believe what he told me. Thanks!
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta
That is absolutely false.
The SEC can investigate and punish people for manipulation of stock prices. So if it turns out that someone is intentionally manipulating stock value, it could be a felony.
It won't be easy to prove, but your claim that there's nothing here but standard trading is just plain false.
He was being sarcastic. Notice the upside-down exclamation points.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta
That's nonsense. Apple sales ALWAYS drop after Christmas ....
Not iPhones. Not for the last three years, at least.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:IPhone_sales_per_quarter_simple.svg
You're reading it wrong.
Christmas is in the 1st quarter and the 2nd quart is Jan-Mar. All numbers in millions
2008
Q1 2.351
Q2 1.703
2009
Q1 4,363
Q2 3,793
2010
Q1 8,737
Q2 8,752
2011
Q1 16,240
Q2 18,650
2012
Q1 37.044
Q2 35,100
Most years, the sales dropped significantly from Q1 to Q2. The exceptions were when they had new product introductions in Q1 - which isn't the case this year so isn't really applicable.
But add a recent launch just before the quarter started and you'll end up with lower sales the following quarter.
Of course nothing is going to happen. The reason for this is that the manipulators (big banks, hedge funds, insurance companies etc) are the ones who own the government and so have basically got a license to do whatever they want. Mom and Pop investors get their lunch eaten. Nothing new here.
The iphone 5 is just not that a great phone. I think the 4S is a better looking and I found worked better IMO. The sleek lines and chamfered edges of the 5 is so prone to chipping, a case is a requirement. I am on my third. The first was a dud due to the touch screen, the second a chip on the edge.
When you look at the nexus 4 in comparison or the Sammy they are I hate to say it cheaper and have better functionality.
So when the earnings call comes it will be interesting to revisit this topic and see if the WSJ was correct.
I think you are missing the big picture here. Everybody does not upgrade on the month of a new version of a phone. There is a staggered number of phones due for upgrade every month. If Apple does not produce an updated phone every 6 months then a well timed upgrade like the SGIII can take market share away for over 3 or 4 months until the next refresh comes along. Apple does not want to be selling year old tech when they can update on a more regular basis. There are trade offs involved. The new phone will be an evolutionary improvement not a big step up like in the past. Apple can respond to Samsung just like they are responding to Apple.
As far as the drop in orders, I am not at all clear on whether this rumor is substantive. If the order change is a real reflection of Apples revised expectation there are several possibilities: China mobile does not want the iPhone 5, or wants an option for a less expensive iPhone, The problems producing the iMac may be causing a drop in orders if this is screens in general rather than just the iPhone5. Demand may be dropping for the Apple display since knock off displays with the 27 inch screens are making it into the market. Apple may have over estimated demand for the iPhone 5, or a switch from the Samsung displays maybe slowed by quality control issues. IPad sales 4 could be lower because of the iPad mini which uses a much lower quality display. The Retina macbook may be having a slow down in sales waiting for the Haswell update. This list is endless and that is the point.
All of the above is speculation, not facts. We will get facts from the conference call. Until then the stock is vulnerable to rumors because the amount of money at stake is so damn large. Apple is 15% of the nasdaq 100. A $3 billion swing in sales which is relatively small given the total quarterly profits Apple makes (approx 10-15 billion in Q1) would have an outsized effect on Apple's stock price. A company which makes 10 Billion in one quarter may see its stock drop by another 30%. There are a lot of people who have already made a lot of money on Apple and see no reason not to take profits before the conference call. When 25 million shares are traded in one day only 3% of the companies shares have traded hands. It would be interesting to see what percentage of Apple's shares are held over the long term. Short term investors could only hold 10% of the company and still determine the direction of the stock. Over the long term earnings will always solve this problem if there is growth in income. Which brings us back to the coming earnings announcement. If it shows that Apple has been doing quite well, I would think that an investigation of this type of rumor would definitely be in order.
Quote:
Originally Posted by morgajx
The iphone 5 is just not that a great phone. I think the 4S is a better looking and I found worked better IMO. The sleek lines and chamfered edges of the 5 is so prone to chipping, a case is a requirement. I am on my third. The first was a dud due to the touch screen, the second a chip on the edge.
When you look at the nexus 4 in comparison or the Sammy they are I hate to say it cheaper and have better functionality.
So when the earnings call comes it will be interesting to revisit this topic and see if the WSJ was correct.
There is no Android device that can match the User Experience of an Apple device.
There's a lot more to Apple domination of consumer satisfaction (for every single iPhone that has ever existed) than a bullet-list of features. As for this "decreased iPhone 5 demand" nonsense, I don't buy it. Not after What Apple's been doing in the rest of the mobile space with the iPad. And certainly not in light of the continued strength of Apple's mindshare. Why would anything change with the iPhone 5? It wouldn't, because the iPhone 5 is best iPhone Apple has ever made. In fact, the experience - with all the enhancements, is markedly different from the 4 and 4S. After using the 5, I couldn't go back.
As for the look of the iPhone 5, it's easily the most elegant on the market.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta
You're reading it wrong.
Christmas is in the 1st quarter and the 2nd quart is Jan-Mar. All numbers in millions
2008
Q1 2.351
Q2 1.703
2009
Q1 4,363
Q2 3,793
2010
Q1 8,737
Q2 8,752
2011
Q1 16,240
Q2 18,650
2012
Q1 37.044 14 WEEK QUARTER
Q2 35,100
Most years, the sales dropped significantly from Q1 to Q2. The exceptions were when they had new product introductions in Q1 - which isn't the case this year so isn't really applicable.
No. I am not reading anything wrong.
I repeat. "Last three years"
deleted
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacRulez
Yep, if there's anything fund managers hate it's making money.
I was talking about them writing the calls, not owning them.
Quote:
Writing a naked call is an options strategy that has significant risks since the stock might move upwards. By its nature, writing a naked call is a bearish strategy that aims for a profit by collecting only the option premium. Due to the risks involved, most investors hedge their bets by protecting some of their downside with stock or other call options (at higher strike prices).
Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/optioninvestor/122701.asp#ixzz2Hzccs3hg
Ok, but why did Google stock drop 2.26% ?