I keep seeing comments about growth being flat. Where are people getting that from? This quarter revenue was 54B, the same quarter last year it was 46B. That's not flat. . Yes profit was flat but Apple introduced a lot of new stuff at the end of 2012 whereas in 2011 all we had was the 4S, so obviously costs are going to be higher, driving down margins and profit.
No, profits weren't flat, because this year's quarter had one week less than last year's quarter. This year's profits were slightly higher with one less week, when adjusted for the same time frame, this years sales were up 12-13% over last year.
Actually, profits per share BEAT Wall Street expectations, it was revenue and number of iPhone units sold that were slightly below expectations.
But first the street hammered the stock for expecting lower margins, and then when they have higher than expected margins they hammer the stock again, because it fell slightly short on ridiculously high and arbitrarily chosen sales targets, even though Apple was quite forward about production constraints, which by the way, lead multiple times to price adjustments for the stock (even though these are not fundamental issues with the company, but temporary impediments).
So the 10% drop cannot be described as anything else but mass hysteria, because all potentially bad news about the quarterly numbers was actually less bad than people feared,and had already priced into the stock. Rationally speaking the stock should have stayed steady or risen, either because there was no surprise data, or because the "bad" news was less "bad" than expected, if one can talk about bad news in the context of double-digit earnings and sales growth.
And the constantly repeated meme that Apple has shown that it stopped being a growth company... Hello? Most so called growth companies are lucky to get into the high single-digit growth figures consistently.
Possibly an expectation of the Next Big Thing has been priced in to Apple's stock for some time now, and as time goes by more investors lose faith. But someone (such as a true Apple fan) who still believes they will come up with it could hang on to their stock and come up roses.
That's the big mistake people make: Apple's stock with the current performance is already undervalued. There is no need of a next-big-thing for the stock to hold the levels it had last year, and certainly right before the earnings announcement.
Adjusted for cash, divident payment, value of the brand and patent portfolio, you already end up with more value than what the stock price is at.
Also people don't know how to count "next big things". iPod touch, iPhone, iPad, are essentially all the same, adjusted and optimized for different use patterns. SO the big things Apple/Jobs had were: Apple II, Mac, (NeXT) => Mac OS X, iPod, iOS.
People for some reason take iPhone, iPod touch, iPad as "big" steps, but then they deride iPad mini as "nothing new" even though it sells like mad, and many iPhone and iPad users notice that it fills a usage gap (e.g. eBook reading) that the neither the iPad nor the iPhone are particularly good for. So people use iPhone on the go, iPad mini for eBooks, bigger navigation screen, cheaper device for kids, etc., and the iPad for more serious work, photo albums, video watching, etc.
In any case, historically speaking the "next big thing" doesn't come with the frequency that people irrationally expect, and something like an iTV, given the market's nature, is not something one can simply announce; the failure of GoogleTV should serve as a clear reminder of that.
There are so many areas that Apple can go into with their technology and make a difference, but they will do it at their own pace, and they have to do it at a pace technology and production capabilities allow for. Anything else is foolish, and to talk about the demise of Apple is just the same BS as I have heard over and over in the context of that company.
I concur, Apple needs to have a plan on buying back stocks and go private. They won't need to deal with silly stockholders that lacks abilities to understand where Apple is heading or doing. Does Wall Street care any other company would be glad to take half of Apple's numbers? Really!
SO the big things Apple/Jobs had were: Apple II, Mac, (NeXT) => Mac OS X, iPod, iOS.
Yep. He even said so himself (sans OS X, but he was just talking about hardware then)
People for some reason take iPhone, iPod touch, iPad as "big" steps…
I don't know of anyone that claims the iPod touch as being a distinct "step". The iPad certainly is. The iPad mini is not. It's to the iPad what the iPod touch is to the iPhone.
In any case, historically speaking the "next big thing" doesn't come with the frequency that people irrationally expect…, and something like an iTV, given the market's nature, is not something one can simply announce; the failure of GoogleTV should serve as a clear reminder of that.
There are so many areas that Apple can go into with their technology and make a difference, but they will do it at their own pace, and they have to do it at a pace technology and production capabilities allow for. Anything else is foolish, and to talk about the demise of Apple is just the same BS as I have heard over and over in the context of that company.
I do believe Apple will make the Next Big Thing and their stock should be higher. And I think I know what it will be. Warning: crazy theory of the week coming up. This is not based on inside info, just their past patterns.
- Steve always liked "democratising" technology: the GUI to let *everyone* use a computer, desktop publishing to let anyone publish, the App store to let anyone publish an app, "The computer for the rest of us." Steve is gone but this is still in Apple's values.
- They like products where they can provide the whole widget/whole ecosystem
- Typically they go after markets where there is already an established market, but the products are still rudimentary/hard to use, and leverage their UX genius to make them easy to use.
- Typically they go after things that attach to a computer in some way.
- The thing they go after has to be something the CEO cares about, or it won't succeed. Tim doesn't care about TV, I bet he never even watches it. He loves operations and manufacture though.
Therefore I think there Next Big Thing they will do is 3d printers/prototypers for the masses:
- Democratize manufacturing itself
- Use brick and mortar Apple Stores to sell ink, use App Store to download blueprints to print. The next big market is not songs or movies or games but blueprints.
- Market exists but is still primitive. Much of the software is clunky Java apps. Use Apple software knowhow to make easier to use.
- The CEO knows all about manufacturing so even though he's not a product guy he should be able to get enthusiastic about this.
Tim probably watches TV, but not as much as other do, he's probably too busy dealing with Apple. He might even have an Apple TV prototype he's playing around with. I would if I were the CEO of Apple.
I am interested to see Jony emerge at these product announcements.
Those prices are discounted. Isn't the unlocked SIII 16G model have a retail list price of $699 before any discounting? I think Samsung is discounting to move product since they're sales are slowly eroding, which is normal when a product becomes over 6 months old. It's reaching it's end of flagship status and will become a cheaper phone when Samsung releases the S4.
Amazon lists the unlocked SIII at $899 (???) which seems pretty high. Didn't find unlocked prices on Samsung's site.
Amazon also lists the iPhone 5 at $749 unlocked when it's $649 from Apple's site so I'm not exactly sure. But yeah it belabors the point that Samsung and those guys don't want an end to subsidies, either.
Comments
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan
I keep seeing comments about growth being flat. Where are people getting that from? This quarter revenue was 54B, the same quarter last year it was 46B. That's not flat.
No, profits weren't flat, because this year's quarter had one week less than last year's quarter. This year's profits were slightly higher with one less week, when adjusted for the same time frame, this years sales were up 12-13% over last year.
Actually, profits per share BEAT Wall Street expectations, it was revenue and number of iPhone units sold that were slightly below expectations.
But first the street hammered the stock for expecting lower margins, and then when they have higher than expected margins they hammer the stock again, because it fell slightly short on ridiculously high and arbitrarily chosen sales targets, even though Apple was quite forward about production constraints, which by the way, lead multiple times to price adjustments for the stock (even though these are not fundamental issues with the company, but temporary impediments).
So the 10% drop cannot be described as anything else but mass hysteria, because all potentially bad news about the quarterly numbers was actually less bad than people feared,and had already priced into the stock. Rationally speaking the stock should have stayed steady or risen, either because there was no surprise data, or because the "bad" news was less "bad" than expected, if one can talk about bad news in the context of double-digit earnings and sales growth.
And the constantly repeated meme that Apple has shown that it stopped being a growth company... Hello? Most so called growth companies are lucky to get into the high single-digit growth figures consistently.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ascii
Possibly an expectation of the Next Big Thing has been priced in to Apple's stock for some time now, and as time goes by more investors lose faith. But someone (such as a true Apple fan) who still believes they will come up with it could hang on to their stock and come up roses.
That's the big mistake people make: Apple's stock with the current performance is already undervalued. There is no need of a next-big-thing for the stock to hold the levels it had last year, and certainly right before the earnings announcement.
Adjusted for cash, divident payment, value of the brand and patent portfolio, you already end up with more value than what the stock price is at.
Also people don't know how to count "next big things". iPod touch, iPhone, iPad, are essentially all the same, adjusted and optimized for different use patterns. SO the big things Apple/Jobs had were: Apple II, Mac, (NeXT) => Mac OS X, iPod, iOS.
People for some reason take iPhone, iPod touch, iPad as "big" steps, but then they deride iPad mini as "nothing new" even though it sells like mad, and many iPhone and iPad users notice that it fills a usage gap (e.g. eBook reading) that the neither the iPad nor the iPhone are particularly good for. So people use iPhone on the go, iPad mini for eBooks, bigger navigation screen, cheaper device for kids, etc., and the iPad for more serious work, photo albums, video watching, etc.
In any case, historically speaking the "next big thing" doesn't come with the frequency that people irrationally expect, and something like an iTV, given the market's nature, is not something one can simply announce; the failure of GoogleTV should serve as a clear reminder of that.
There are so many areas that Apple can go into with their technology and make a difference, but they will do it at their own pace, and they have to do it at a pace technology and production capabilities allow for. Anything else is foolish, and to talk about the demise of Apple is just the same BS as I have heard over and over in the context of that company.
Originally Posted by rcfa
SO the big things Apple/Jobs had were: Apple II, Mac, (NeXT) => Mac OS X, iPod, iOS.
Yep. He even said so himself (sans OS X, but he was just talking about hardware then)
People for some reason take iPhone, iPod touch, iPad as "big" steps…
I don't know of anyone that claims the iPod touch as being a distinct "step". The iPad certainly is. The iPad mini is not. It's to the iPad what the iPod touch is to the iPhone.
In any case, historically speaking the "next big thing" doesn't come with the frequency that people irrationally expect…, and something like an iTV, given the market's nature, is not something one can simply announce; the failure of GoogleTV should serve as a clear reminder of that.
There are so many areas that Apple can go into with their technology and make a difference, but they will do it at their own pace, and they have to do it at a pace technology and production capabilities allow for. Anything else is foolish, and to talk about the demise of Apple is just the same BS as I have heard over and over in the context of that company.
Yep!
Quote:
Originally Posted by ascii
I do believe Apple will make the Next Big Thing and their stock should be higher. And I think I know what it will be. Warning: crazy theory of the week coming up. This is not based on inside info, just their past patterns.
- Steve always liked "democratising" technology: the GUI to let *everyone* use a computer, desktop publishing to let anyone publish, the App store to let anyone publish an app, "The computer for the rest of us." Steve is gone but this is still in Apple's values.
- They like products where they can provide the whole widget/whole ecosystem
- Typically they go after markets where there is already an established market, but the products are still rudimentary/hard to use, and leverage their UX genius to make them easy to use.
- Typically they go after things that attach to a computer in some way.
- The thing they go after has to be something the CEO cares about, or it won't succeed. Tim doesn't care about TV, I bet he never even watches it. He loves operations and manufacture though.
Therefore I think there Next Big Thing they will do is 3d printers/prototypers for the masses:
- Democratize manufacturing itself
- Use brick and mortar Apple Stores to sell ink, use App Store to download blueprints to print. The next big market is not songs or movies or games but blueprints.
- Market exists but is still primitive. Much of the software is clunky Java apps. Use Apple software knowhow to make easier to use.
- The CEO knows all about manufacturing so even though he's not a product guy he should be able to get enthusiastic about this.
Tim probably watches TV, but not as much as other do, he's probably too busy dealing with Apple. He might even have an Apple TV prototype he's playing around with. I would if I were the CEO of Apple.
I am interested to see Jony emerge at these product announcements.
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank
Those prices are discounted. Isn't the unlocked SIII 16G model have a retail list price of $699 before any discounting? I think Samsung is discounting to move product since they're sales are slowly eroding, which is normal when a product becomes over 6 months old. It's reaching it's end of flagship status and will become a cheaper phone when Samsung releases the S4.
Amazon lists the unlocked SIII at $899 (???) which seems pretty high. Didn't find unlocked prices on Samsung's site.
Amazon also lists the iPhone 5 at $749 unlocked when it's $649 from Apple's site so I'm not exactly sure. But yeah it belabors the point that Samsung and those guys don't want an end to subsidies, either.
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