I can only really see this being an accessory. There have been hints that Apple is working on a comprehensive system for monitoring aspects of health and sports, so maybe they have something like the Nike fuelband in the works.
So these experts are predicting that Apple will capture 20% of the total combined TV and watches market in the foreseeable future?
Just more inane predictions that appear to be designed to do no more than create unrealistic expectations.
I just checked that source link you included. It appears to reference the global TV industry in its entirety,specifically referencing revenues from content, e.g., pay-per-view and advertising. That's not what this thread is addressing. We're talking hardware, not content. Your source didn't mention hardware at all. I'm not sure if I'm missing some other point in your post.
Well the world is getting rid of watches. An entire generation of people is growing up who never ever worn them. I don't see apple can reach a sizable market with such a product.
The same generation that have been wearing Timex Ironman watches in droves?
I wonder how big the tablet market was when iPad came out
Everyone knows watches exist in all kinds from cheap plastic ones to diamond encrusted ones. How many people believe that the iPad was the first tablet? See the difference?
What comes back are a few actual smartwatches, watches that are mostly Bluetooth displays and/or audio, and some astonishingly inexpensive GSM phones in giant wristwatch like cases.
What comes back are a few actual smartwatches, watches that are mostly Bluetooth displays and/or audio, and some astonishingly inexpensive GSM phones in giant wristwatch like cases.
Well the world is getting rid of watches. An entire generation of people is growing up who never ever worn them. I don't see apple can reach a sizable market with such a product.
Hmmm- Not sure about your view, or lack thereof. This will hardly be a "watch"
I imagine this:
Anticipate It to be a stand alone device, ie, last gen ipod nano, attractive screen, memory. Form will follow function. Will have wireless (Bluetooth?) capabilities to tether to other IOs devices. Sends & receives text, email, etc. Powered and charged via available light SIRI would play a huge role in its design and functionality. All of this technology exists today- much of it owned by Apple. Having all this on my wrist, YES. How wonderful to not have to reach for my phone, which can be at times so awkward and socially lame. Glance at my wrist instead..... whoooahh!
An iWatch will be part of the Apple ecosystem, think of a BlueTooth enabled device that works like a fuel band, lets you read emails, tweets and texts, links to Siri on your iPhone, controls your Apple TV, etc...
I just checked that source link you included. It appears to reference the global TV industry in its entirety,specifically referencing revenues from content, e.g., pay-per-view and advertising. That's not what this thread is addressing. We're talking hardware, not content. Your source didn't mention hardware at all. I'm not sure if I'm missing some other point in your post.
You're absolutely right. The TV hardware sales are much smaller.
This source says that the number is around 50 M units in a quarter - or 200 M units per hear. At $1000 per TV, that's $200 B. Add in the watches and you have $250 B - so the analyst is expecting Apple to capture 1/3 of the total market - which is just plain absurd. Those are both well-established markets with strongly entrenched market leaders and very little profit potential. To think that Apple will come in with a premium priced product and take a third of the market is crazy.
Yes, they did it with iPads, but that was not an strongly established mature markets. Let's look at mobile phones. At launch, Jobs said Apple wanted a couple percent - and the analysts thought that was unreasonable. Even now - after 7 years of the most successful product launches in history and products that completely revolutionized the industry, Apple has around 10% of the entire mobile market.
So why are TVs and watches so different that anyone would reasonably predict Apple to get 1/3 of the entire market? Nothing. It's pure hype intended to create unrealistic expectations.
I tell ya though, I'm thinking really seriously about getting one of those $70 GSM watchphones for my young daughter. Yeah, it's big and ugly, but at least if it's on her wrist, she can't lose it as easily !
On an different note, I remember when IBM came out with their concept of wearable digital jewelry over ten years ago:
And finally, a comment about this "100 person team"... well, they're not very SECRET, are they now? Whatever happened to doubling down on secrecy?
Maybe Apple felt the need to leak the project, because rumors say that Samsung might have a smartwatch (or at least a smart bracelet) coming out soon, perhaps to go with the Galaxy S4
I quit wearing watches years ago because I found them uncomfortable and got the time in my car and from my computer (as people have mentioned). When I got a mobile phone I added it to the time telling mix. I have several nice watches including my grandfathers Hamilton pocket watch and a nice Mondaine Swiss pocket watch along with several wrist watches. I rarely remember to wear or even wind them. While I recognize that the Apple device will be more of a wearable computer/communication device, I'm still not interested. Mostly because I would most likely break it since I have to actually do things with my arms and hands during my work day. I see how many will be fascinated with and that it will find many unexpected uses, much like the iPad did.
I have the nike fuel band. Can't tell you how many young people ask "what is that?" "that is so cool" It's a watch and a bit more. Tim Cook wears one. Something is coming . . . . . . The fuel band is just a tiny beginning.
On an different note, I remember when IBM came out with their concept of wearable digital jewelry over ten years ago:
This isn't a new concept. I'm sure if Apple does enter the wearable computer market there will be a huge number of new posters here showing us all this "prior art" that shows that Apple just copied this or that idea. The more revolutionary and successful the product the more claims that Apple didn't invent shit.
As I always say success in technology isn't about being first but having the right product and the right time, which often means knowing what to exclude. I can't imagine that Apple doesn't have teams working on wearable computers. I fully expect some new product category this year but until recently I could only conceive of an HEC device of some sort would be viable.
And finally, a comment about this "100 person team"... well, they're not very SECRET, are they now? Whatever happened to doubling down on secrecy?
Maybe Apple felt the need to leak the project, because rumors say that Samsung might have a smartwatch (or at least a smart bracelet) coming out soon, perhaps to go with the Galaxy S4
I see no need to leak anything. The original cites two people familiar with their plans. if they are late in the progress they've gone through a lot of stages with a lot of companies so it might now have been an internal leak, assuming it's even true as it's unverifiable as we've seen no components that could be for such a device. Remember the first touchscreen iPod Nano? We saw that display for months for it launched.
As for doubling down, that has says nothing specific. How do you make something doubly secure? Twice the funding for security? Twice as many lawyers writing up contracts with supplies? They could be putting in a lot more effort but that doesn't mean it will be a success. And as far we know they've simply changed how they look at security and have made it considerably more secure without spending an extra dime. It could be huge investments to get away from using Samsung which will take time.
One thing we do know is that we had no idea about Mountain Lion until they told us (or allowed a tech writer to release their information). I suspect the same thing will happen again this year… and shortly.
This iWatch will take sales away from the iPhone...
You are so true, but remember that Apple has no fear of cannibalization of their own products. They see (as I do) that the iPhone has a shelf life (just like the iPod) and they are laying the groundwork NOW to make that transition before others can take the momentum away from them. It will take a few iterations before the iWatch will be a functional replacement for the iPhone, just like it will take a few more iterations before the iPad is a complete replacement for the MacBook.
Imagine that the best way to beat Samsung is first to take away billions of dollars in funding by not doing business with them, not allowing them insight into "the next big thing" by letting them manufacture your products, and finally to move on to another market while they are just ramping up to compete in the previous market. Apple loves to off-put their competitors and make them scramble. The iWatch (or whatever it will be called) is just the opening salvo to a whole range of wearable computers that people will look to Apple as the market developer and leader for years to come.
When Cook said they were doubling down on secrecy, THIS is what he was talking about, not the stuff that was already known.
Well the world is getting rid of watches. An entire generation of people is growing up who never ever worn them. I don't see apple can reach a sizable market with such a product.
Just like when the world was getting rid Walkman's in the 90's... there was no point in Apple producing a pocket music device.
This isn't a new concept. I'm sure if Apple does enter the wearable computer market there will be a huge number of new posters here showing us all this "prior art" that shows that Apple just copied this or that idea. The more revolutionary and successful the product the more claims that Apple didn't invent shit.
This iWatch will take sales away from the iPhone...
You are so true, but remember that Apple has no fear of cannibalization of their own products.
I think an iWatch would unlikely replace the iPhone. Perhaps years from now that will be feasible but right now the cost would be high (think of an iPhone but with even more miniaturized components). And how much battery life would you get from an always-on cellular device on your wrist? Then there is the complete lack of an app ecosystem as you can't get a 3.5 or 4" display on your wrist without it looking ridiculous, not to mention you one ever have one hand to operate it.
I tink the most likely is using BLE to create an accessory that adds to your iPhone or other iDevice, not replace it.
This looks like a winner. How could you be any more trendy, fashionable and technologically advanced than with an Ive designed iWatch.
"Recuperation in demand for luxury watches post recession, robust demand from developing markets especially Asia-Pacific and rising popularity of fashionable, vintage and innovative models are forecast to drive market growth."
If Apple was interested to satisfy 0.1% of the population (most reach people on the planet), iPhone would have been golden plated with the diamond Apple logo on the back.
Comments
I can only really see this being an accessory. There have been hints that Apple is working on a comprehensive system for monitoring aspects of health and sports, so maybe they have something like the Nike fuelband in the works.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta
Hmm. The total global watches market is $46.6 B. The total global TV market is 290 B Euro (about $400
So these experts are predicting that Apple will capture 20% of the total combined TV and watches market in the foreseeable future?
Just more inane predictions that appear to be designed to do no more than create unrealistic expectations.
I just checked that source link you included. It appears to reference the global TV industry in its entirety,specifically referencing revenues from content, e.g., pay-per-view and advertising. That's not what this thread is addressing. We're talking hardware, not content. Your source didn't mention hardware at all. I'm not sure if I'm missing some other point in your post.
The same generation that have been wearing Timex Ironman watches in droves?
Everyone knows watches exist in all kinds from cheap plastic ones to diamond encrusted ones. How many people believe that the iPad was the first tablet? See the difference?
For fun, and to see the current state of the art, go to amazon.com and search for "smart watch". <-- or click here.
What comes back are a few actual smartwatches, watches that are mostly Bluetooth displays and/or audio, and some astonishingly inexpensive GSM phones in giant wristwatch like cases.
Eww...
http://www.amazon.com/Version-Ultra-thin-Quad-band-Mobile-Camera/dp/B0036WHNVS/ref=sr_1_5?ie=UTF8&qid=1360724946&sr=8-5&keywords=smartwatch
Quote:
Originally Posted by jason98
Well the world is getting rid of watches. An entire generation of people is growing up who never ever worn them. I don't see apple can reach a sizable market with such a product.
Hmmm- Not sure about your view, or lack thereof. This will hardly be a "watch"
I imagine this:
Anticipate It to be a stand alone device, ie, last gen ipod nano, attractive screen, memory. Form will follow function. Will have wireless (Bluetooth?) capabilities to tether to other IOs devices. Sends & receives text, email, etc. Powered and charged via available light SIRI would play a huge role in its design and functionality. All of this technology exists today- much of it owned by Apple. Having all this on my wrist, YES. How wonderful to not have to reach for my phone, which can be at times so awkward and socially lame. Glance at my wrist instead..... whoooahh!
There's a generation of wrists that need iWatches
You're absolutely right. The TV hardware sales are much smaller.
This source says that the number is around 50 M units in a quarter - or 200 M units per hear. At $1000 per TV, that's $200 B. Add in the watches and you have $250 B - so the analyst is expecting Apple to capture 1/3 of the total market - which is just plain absurd. Those are both well-established markets with strongly entrenched market leaders and very little profit potential. To think that Apple will come in with a premium priced product and take a third of the market is crazy.
Yes, they did it with iPads, but that was not an strongly established mature markets. Let's look at mobile phones. At launch, Jobs said Apple wanted a couple percent - and the analysts thought that was unreasonable. Even now - after 7 years of the most successful product launches in history and products that completely revolutionized the industry, Apple has around 10% of the entire mobile market.
So why are TVs and watches so different that anyone would reasonably predict Apple to get 1/3 of the entire market? Nothing. It's pure hype intended to create unrealistic expectations.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX
Eww...
http://www.amazon.com/Version-Ultra-thin-Quad-band-Mobile-Camera/dp/B0036WHNVS/ref=sr_1_5?ie=UTF8&qid=1360724946&sr=8-5&keywords=smartwatch
*laughing* Yes there are some bad ones.
I tell ya though, I'm thinking really seriously about getting one of those $70 GSM watchphones for my young daughter. Yeah, it's big and ugly, but at least if it's on her wrist, she can't lose it as easily !
On an different note, I remember when IBM came out with their concept of wearable digital jewelry over ten years ago:
And finally, a comment about this "100 person team"... well, they're not very SECRET, are they now? Whatever happened to doubling down on secrecy?
Maybe Apple felt the need to leak the project, because rumors say that Samsung might have a smartwatch (or at least a smart bracelet) coming out soon, perhaps to go with the Galaxy S4
I quit wearing watches years ago because I found them uncomfortable and got the time in my car and from my computer (as people have mentioned). When I got a mobile phone I added it to the time telling mix. I have several nice watches including my grandfathers Hamilton pocket watch and a nice Mondaine Swiss pocket watch along with several wrist watches. I rarely remember to wear or even wind them. While I recognize that the Apple device will be more of a wearable computer/communication device, I'm still not interested. Mostly because I would most likely break it since I have to actually do things with my arms and hands during my work day. I see how many will be fascinated with and that it will find many unexpected uses, much like the iPad did.
I have the nike fuel band. Can't tell you how many young people ask "what is that?" "that is so cool" It's a watch and a bit more. Tim Cook wears one. Something is coming . . . . . . The fuel band is just a tiny beginning.
This isn't a new concept. I'm sure if Apple does enter the wearable computer market there will be a huge number of new posters here showing us all this "prior art" that shows that Apple just copied this or that idea. The more revolutionary and successful the product the more claims that Apple didn't invent shit.
As I always say success in technology isn't about being first but having the right product and the right time, which often means knowing what to exclude. I can't imagine that Apple doesn't have teams working on wearable computers. I fully expect some new product category this year but until recently I could only conceive of an HEC device of some sort would be viable.
I see no need to leak anything. The original cites two people familiar with their plans. if they are late in the progress they've gone through a lot of stages with a lot of companies so it might now have been an internal leak, assuming it's even true as it's unverifiable as we've seen no components that could be for such a device. Remember the first touchscreen iPod Nano? We saw that display for months for it launched.
As for doubling down, that has says nothing specific. How do you make something doubly secure? Twice the funding for security? Twice as many lawyers writing up contracts with supplies? They could be putting in a lot more effort but that doesn't mean it will be a success. And as far we know they've simply changed how they look at security and have made it considerably more secure without spending an extra dime. It could be huge investments to get away from using Samsung which will take time.
One thing we do know is that we had no idea about Mountain Lion until they told us (or allowed a tech writer to release their information). I suspect the same thing will happen again this year… and shortly.
Quote:
Originally Posted by peter236
This iWatch will take sales away from the iPhone...
You are so true, but remember that Apple has no fear of cannibalization of their own products. They see (as I do) that the iPhone has a shelf life (just like the iPod) and they are laying the groundwork NOW to make that transition before others can take the momentum away from them. It will take a few iterations before the iWatch will be a functional replacement for the iPhone, just like it will take a few more iterations before the iPad is a complete replacement for the MacBook.
Imagine that the best way to beat Samsung is first to take away billions of dollars in funding by not doing business with them, not allowing them insight into "the next big thing" by letting them manufacture your products, and finally to move on to another market while they are just ramping up to compete in the previous market. Apple loves to off-put their competitors and make them scramble. The iWatch (or whatever it will be called) is just the opening salvo to a whole range of wearable computers that people will look to Apple as the market developer and leader for years to come.
When Cook said they were doubling down on secrecy, THIS is what he was talking about, not the stuff that was already known.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jason98
Well the world is getting rid of watches. An entire generation of people is growing up who never ever worn them. I don't see apple can reach a sizable market with such a product.
Just like when the world was getting rid Walkman's in the 90's... there was no point in Apple producing a pocket music device.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX
This isn't a new concept. I'm sure if Apple does enter the wearable computer market there will be a huge number of new posters here showing us all this "prior art" that shows that Apple just copied this or that idea. The more revolutionary and successful the product the more claims that Apple didn't invent shit.
Don't ya just know it!
I think an iWatch would unlikely replace the iPhone. Perhaps years from now that will be feasible but right now the cost would be high (think of an iPhone but with even more miniaturized components). And how much battery life would you get from an always-on cellular device on your wrist? Then there is the complete lack of an app ecosystem as you can't get a 3.5 or 4" display on your wrist without it looking ridiculous, not to mention you one ever have one hand to operate it.
I tink the most likely is using BLE to create an accessory that adds to your iPhone or other iDevice, not replace it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit
The world is getting rid of watches?
Here, get educated:
http://www.prweb.com/releases/watches_market/clocks_market/prweb9400315.htm
This looks like a winner. How could you be any more trendy, fashionable and technologically advanced than with an Ive designed iWatch.
"Recuperation in demand for luxury watches post recession, robust demand from developing markets especially Asia-Pacific and rising popularity of fashionable, vintage and innovative models are forecast to drive market growth."
If Apple was interested to satisfy 0.1% of the population (most reach people on the planet), iPhone would have been golden plated with the diamond Apple logo on the back.
Wonder if there will be a law suit over the other watch that has been announced recently?