Too many, like our new nervous Nellie jndc123, whom we are going to have to deal with presently, it looks like. He's on the job today again.
As Tim Cook tried to tell everybody, trying to draw any conclusions from supply chan "news" is stupid. He didn't really say "stupid," of course, but that is what he meant.
Another thing that is stupid is basing any long-term prediction on what Apple is NOT doing right now. We will have no idea what Apple's intentions are for its empire until late this year. To be chewing your nails publicly and shrieking fearful demands at Tim Cook, like jndc 123 is doing here—to be doing that at this time is ridiculously premature, or immature.
"Analysts" like Misek and Jeffries of couse make a living at this. jndc 123 is of course doing it for free.
Well, I wouldn't say I'm doing it for free. I am doing it for negative value as I am losing money daily on the stock fort 6 months now. Nobody want to answer the question. When Tim Cook took over, the combined value of Apple/Google/Samsung was $530 billion and Apple was $300 billion of that. Today the combined value is $690 billion and Apple is $265 billion of the total. The total imputed value of the three largest mobile players has increased, Apple has shrunk.
I can give me my reasons, but let's hear yours Flaneur. Why is Apple shrinking as competitors grow?
The overall gross margin for all Samsung phones is about 20% compared to ~50% of Apple. Even at the high end segment (>$500 phones), Samsung is making 30-35%. Apple and Samsung are essentially following two different paths: one chasing biggest profit (Apple takes 65% of industry profit), one chases biggest unit sold number.
While everyone around them is getting better, Apple is getting worse. That is going to be the theme until they change it
But in this case, 'they' are the analysts and hit whores. The real issue are the rumors not the facts. The analysts are the ones that are setting goals too high, they are the ones claiming to know time tables etc. if iPhone sales go into decline it will be because of folks like Jefferies claiming its a fact that the iPhone is going to return to a June release when it likely isn't.
Those that look at the real facts will figure Apple is moving all iOS to fall so all new hardware releases with iOS after developers get the summer to update their apps. They will also have listened to Phil say that Apple doesn't release cheap stuff (ie designed to be cheap with lesser parts etc). And so on. Pity this group is a tiny minority compared to those that think analysts etc speak truth.
The market believes Apple whiffed on a large screen and 'low-cost' iPhone, that they are late to the game.
"The market" also believed that Apple would be an EFFING FAILURE without a 2.5" iPhone that didn't have cellular data or apps of any sort. They also believed that Apple would be an EFFING FAILURE if they didn't introduce a television set. And a tower-based consumer desktop. And Blu-ray. And USB on their iDevices. And an SD card slot on their iDevices. And if Apple doesn't release a DVR, hoo-boy, they're a failure.
The moral of the story is that "the market" isn't the market.
There are nearly daily stories of supply chain problems, delays, etc.
But if you went to their website, you'd see those aren't the case.
...when was the last time Apple was earlier than expected to market with something.
I would imagine constantly, given that no one has ever had any clue whatsoever when Apple internally deigned to release a product, either originally or in actuality.
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh
As much as I am an AAPL fan, the troll posts indicating doom and gloom for Apple's future are important to read.
It gets tiresome having to "seriously consider" the gloom and doom every second of every day. These posts indicate nothing more than a new batch (or single) of people (person) finding our site.
There are a number of people who think Samsung is now more innovative than Apple, and a number of others that would say Google is more innovative.
These people don't know what the word 'innovation' means, so I wouldn't worry about what they think.
I don't understand why people are so unhappy with the lowballing "analysts". If you are a long-term investor and have a reason to believe in your company long-term growth shouldn't you be happy with the stock price falling? Just use that as an opportunity to buy.
Yep, and Apple, too. According to W. Buffett, he and Jobs spoke years ago and he advised Jobs to buy back some company stock. Now's the time, I'd think.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider
Misek came under fire last month when he cited "channel checks" that allegedly indicated Apple was planning a product event in March related to the Apple TV set-top box. But reliable Apple commentator Jim Dalrymple of The Loopquickly refuted those claims and said Apple would not be holding such an event.
...but gives 25 percent "probability" that Apple will miss its guidance due to sales slowing even further in the second half of March.
This guy isn't credible based on his past predictions, why pay attention to him? But I suppose the speculators will see this and the stock will drop further.
Also, I'd like to see his evidence of slowing sales, please. Where's his evidence to make such a claim?
The overall gross margin for all Samsung phones is about 20% compared to ~50% of Apple. Even at the high end segment (>$500 phones), Samsung is making 30-35%. Apple and Samsung are essentially following two different paths: one chasing biggest profit (Apple takes 65% of industry profit), one chases biggest unit sold number.
Yet Samsung will earn nearly as much as Apple this year, forecasted $51 billion EBITDA versus $60 billion for Apple. Two years ago, they made half as much. Both strategies can work and are. Lower volume / higher margin or higher volume / lower margin both work and we are seeing that. Its the fact that Samsung is growing much more quickly than Apple at this point that have people concerned that Apple's strategy needs a tweak.
Because people are fooled by big screens, and they are not consciously repelled by glossy, greasy-shiny plastic. But I believe many are subliminally repelled by greasy-shiny over a longer period of time, and when quality again falls into their hands, they'll respond correctly. Apple's product design is based on this belief in people's innate good taste. Samsung's designs are based on people's venal attraction to shiny, glossy things.
They're not getting worse, but I'd dare say they've been moving slow and competitors are catching up quickly.
But what's better, taking it slow to get their footing after losing one of their best friends and a key public figure, showing that they can hold the boat upright while they figure out the course.
Or pushing ahead full speed, gunning the engines even, and slamming into an ice berg they couldn't really avoid because they were going too fast to get out of the way.
Given their situation and that much of the current 'wow' tech is still untested or standardized, I'd say taking it slow and waiting for the dust to settle on the tech IS an innovative way of thing. It's not the same 'add it to say you have it' that the other kiddies are doing which could fail in the end. Or at least not really help them (other than the bragging rights)
Well, I wouldn't say I'm doing it for free. I am doing it for negative value as I am losing money daily on the stock fort 6 months now. Nobody want to answer the question. When Tim Cook took over, the combined value of Apple/Google/Samsung was $530 billion and Apple was $300 billion of that. Today the combined value is $690 billion and Apple is $265 billion of the total. The total imputed value of the three largest mobile players has increased, Apple has shrunk.
I can give me my reasons, but let's hear yours Flaneur. Why is Apple shrinking as competitors grow?
AAPL still takes the lion's share of profits. Please define "shrinking" without using stock price as an indicator.
I don't understand why people are so unhappy with the lowballing "analysts". If you are a long-term investor and have a reason to believe in your company long-term growth shouldn't you be happy with the stock price falling? Just use that as an opportunity to buy.
Because these guys keep lowballing and talking like the stock won't ever go back up. Buying low is only great if you have faith you'll make some money. Most folks don't understand how or have the faith in trying to short a stock for profit (and that really works best if it drops fast)
Frankly it's hard to understand why we let this tripe be posted.
Why? What evidence is there for "failure" or "doing worse" even when they don't do something that one person by some magical arbitrary definition deems "blockbuster"?
"Frankly it's hard to understand why we let this tripe be posted."
Oh come on, I'm not being rude or inflammatory. I own the stock. I am unhappy. I am generally disclosing 'market concerns' not my concerns.
The fact of the matter this company has dropped hundred of billions of value. It is a fair and legitimate discussion to have to ask why and what they can do to change. I personally am not a fan of Tim Cook and think he is delusional if he thinks he can run the company the same way Steve did.
We all have out line in the sand. Stock drops another 50%, Google and Samsung surpass it in value while Tim says nothing and will you be happy?
AAPL still takes the lion's share of profits. Please define "shrinking" without using stock price as an indicator.
Earnings last fiscal 2Q = 12.54/share; earnings this year same quarter, likely less than $10. That is my definition of shrink, an earnings drop of 20%. Annual earnings at best flat, more likely ~5% below last year. "Shrink" - when something decreases, like Apple's earnings per share are.
Frankly it's hard to understand why we let this tripe be posted.
Its not that hard at all. It's called Freedom of Speech, something the board owners believe in affording to all members even if they aren't American. Although they would likely rather members, especially moderators, avoid simply calling names and actually enter into a discussion about posted comments
As for your second comment, I agree that many folks, particularly in this and other similar boards/sites post based on their definition of what they want to see without thought to whether it really fits Apple's game plan as evidenced by what they have done (actions not rumors). As a pro editor I would like to see the return of Shake, either alone or in something else, but I don't expect it to ever happen. Some features did stick around but not the whole thing. And I live with this because I can see from really paying attention that Apple isn't using pros as their touchstone anymore. Haven't in a while in fact. Many folks want to see the iOS with account functions. I don't see it. Apple seems to be considering iOS devices as single user. And so on.
I personally am not a fan of Tim Cook and think he is delusional if he thinks he can run the company the same way Steve did.
And yet you keep your stock in a company run by a "delusional" man and whine on forums, making things up as you go, instead of selling.
I wonder who's really delusional.
We all have out line in the sand. Stock drops another 50%, Google and Samsung surpass it in value while Tim says nothing and will you be happy?
As long as they're still making products that people want, services that people want, and making money hand over fist every quarter, the stock can go to $1 a share for all I care. As a stockholder, what you seem to have forgotten as that none of this matters in any respect to a company that cares about innovation. Nor should it.
Because people are fooled by big screens, and they are not consciously repelled by glossy, greasy-shiny plastic. But I believe many are subliminally repelled by greasy-shiny over a longer period of time, and when quality again falls into their hands, they'll respond correctly. Apple's product design is based on this belief in people's innate good taste. Samsung's designs are based on people's venal attraction to shiny, glossy things.
One is transitory, the other long-term.
Your opinion only... of course.
... but at least you stayed on argument and gave a reason why Samsung's sales are growing.
Because its cheap and many folks will buy into notion that its basically the same as iPhone etc but half the price. By the time they figure out its not its too late to return the phone for many and for the rest, the sales aren't adjusted for that return since Samsung posts channel sales which generally can't return the phone to Samsung but have to try to resell it as a refurb etc
Because its cheap and many folks will buy into notion that its basically the same as iPhone etc but half the price. By the time they figure out its not its too late to return the phone for many and for the rest, the sales aren't adjusted for that return since Samsung posts channel sales which generally can't return the phone to Samsung but have to try to resell it as a refurb etc
Now that's silly.
Samsung is up to S4 and sales are still growing. Same with the Note 2. If what you say is true then sales should be shrinking by now.
[oh, and by the way... the 2 mentioned... not what you would really call cheap]
Comments
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flaneur
Too many, like our new nervous Nellie jndc123, whom we are going to have to deal with presently, it looks like. He's on the job today again.
As Tim Cook tried to tell everybody, trying to draw any conclusions from supply chan "news" is stupid. He didn't really say "stupid," of course, but that is what he meant.
Another thing that is stupid is basing any long-term prediction on what Apple is NOT doing right now. We will have no idea what Apple's intentions are for its empire until late this year. To be chewing your nails publicly and shrieking fearful demands at Tim Cook, like jndc 123 is doing here—to be doing that at this time is ridiculously premature, or immature.
"Analysts" like Misek and Jeffries of couse make a living at this. jndc 123 is of course doing it for free.
Well, I wouldn't say I'm doing it for free. I am doing it for negative value as I am losing money daily on the stock fort 6 months now. Nobody want to answer the question. When Tim Cook took over, the combined value of Apple/Google/Samsung was $530 billion and Apple was $300 billion of that. Today the combined value is $690 billion and Apple is $265 billion of the total. The total imputed value of the three largest mobile players has increased, Apple has shrunk.
I can give me my reasons, but let's hear yours Flaneur. Why is Apple shrinking as competitors grow?
Quote:
Originally Posted by zoffdino
The overall gross margin for all Samsung phones is about 20% compared to ~50% of Apple. Even at the high end segment (>$500 phones), Samsung is making 30-35%. Apple and Samsung are essentially following two different paths: one chasing biggest profit (Apple takes 65% of industry profit), one chases biggest unit sold number.
That wasn't the argument but nice try.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123
While everyone around them is getting better, Apple is getting worse. That is going to be the theme until they change it
But in this case, 'they' are the analysts and hit whores. The real issue are the rumors not the facts. The analysts are the ones that are setting goals too high, they are the ones claiming to know time tables etc. if iPhone sales go into decline it will be because of folks like Jefferies claiming its a fact that the iPhone is going to return to a June release when it likely isn't.
Those that look at the real facts will figure Apple is moving all iOS to fall so all new hardware releases with iOS after developers get the summer to update their apps. They will also have listened to Phil say that Apple doesn't release cheap stuff (ie designed to be cheap with lesser parts etc). And so on. Pity this group is a tiny minority compared to those that think analysts etc speak truth.
Originally Posted by jdnc123
Apple is stagnating. Innovation is lacking.
Uh………. huh.
That being said
And ignored…
The market believes Apple whiffed on a large screen and 'low-cost' iPhone, that they are late to the game.
"The market" also believed that Apple would be an EFFING FAILURE without a 2.5" iPhone that didn't have cellular data or apps of any sort. They also believed that Apple would be an EFFING FAILURE if they didn't introduce a television set. And a tower-based consumer desktop. And Blu-ray. And USB on their iDevices. And an SD card slot on their iDevices. And if Apple doesn't release a DVR, hoo-boy, they're a failure.
The moral of the story is that "the market" isn't the market.
There are nearly daily stories of supply chain problems, delays, etc.
But if you went to their website, you'd see those aren't the case.
...when was the last time Apple was earlier than expected to market with something.
I would imagine constantly, given that no one has ever had any clue whatsoever when Apple internally deigned to release a product, either originally or in actuality.
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh
As much as I am an AAPL fan, the troll posts indicating doom and gloom for Apple's future are important to read.
It gets tiresome having to "seriously consider" the gloom and doom every second of every day. These posts indicate nothing more than a new batch (or single) of people (person) finding our site.
There are a number of people who think Samsung is now more innovative than Apple, and a number of others that would say Google is more innovative.
These people don't know what the word 'innovation' means, so I wouldn't worry about what they think.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Plagen
I don't understand why people are so unhappy with the lowballing "analysts". If you are a long-term investor and have a reason to believe in your company long-term growth shouldn't you be happy with the stock price falling? Just use that as an opportunity to buy.
Yep, and Apple, too. According to W. Buffett, he and Jobs spoke years ago and he advised Jobs to buy back some company stock. Now's the time, I'd think.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider
Misek came under fire last month when he cited "channel checks" that allegedly indicated Apple was planning a product event in March related to the Apple TV set-top box. But reliable Apple commentator Jim Dalrymple of The Loop quickly refuted those claims and said Apple would not be holding such an event.
...but gives 25 percent "probability" that Apple will miss its guidance due to sales slowing even further in the second half of March.
This guy isn't credible based on his past predictions, why pay attention to him? But I suppose the speculators will see this and the stock will drop further.
Also, I'd like to see his evidence of slowing sales, please. Where's his evidence to make such a claim?
Quote:
Originally Posted by zoffdino
The overall gross margin for all Samsung phones is about 20% compared to ~50% of Apple. Even at the high end segment (>$500 phones), Samsung is making 30-35%. Apple and Samsung are essentially following two different paths: one chasing biggest profit (Apple takes 65% of industry profit), one chases biggest unit sold number.
Yet Samsung will earn nearly as much as Apple this year, forecasted $51 billion EBITDA versus $60 billion for Apple. Two years ago, they made half as much. Both strategies can work and are. Lower volume / higher margin or higher volume / lower margin both work and we are seeing that. Its the fact that Samsung is growing much more quickly than Apple at this point that have people concerned that Apple's strategy needs a tweak.
Because people are fooled by big screens, and they are not consciously repelled by glossy, greasy-shiny plastic. But I believe many are subliminally repelled by greasy-shiny over a longer period of time, and when quality again falls into their hands, they'll respond correctly. Apple's product design is based on this belief in people's innate good taste. Samsung's designs are based on people's venal attraction to shiny, glossy things.
One is transitory, the other long-term.
Quote:
Originally Posted by techguy911
They're not getting worse, but I'd dare say they've been moving slow and competitors are catching up quickly.
But what's better, taking it slow to get their footing after losing one of their best friends and a key public figure, showing that they can hold the boat upright while they figure out the course.
Or pushing ahead full speed, gunning the engines even, and slamming into an ice berg they couldn't really avoid because they were going too fast to get out of the way.
Given their situation and that much of the current 'wow' tech is still untested or standardized, I'd say taking it slow and waiting for the dust to settle on the tech IS an innovative way of thing. It's not the same 'add it to say you have it' that the other kiddies are doing which could fail in the end. Or at least not really help them (other than the bragging rights)
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123
Well, I wouldn't say I'm doing it for free. I am doing it for negative value as I am losing money daily on the stock fort 6 months now. Nobody want to answer the question. When Tim Cook took over, the combined value of Apple/Google/Samsung was $530 billion and Apple was $300 billion of that. Today the combined value is $690 billion and Apple is $265 billion of the total. The total imputed value of the three largest mobile players has increased, Apple has shrunk.
I can give me my reasons, but let's hear yours Flaneur. Why is Apple shrinking as competitors grow?
AAPL still takes the lion's share of profits. Please define "shrinking" without using stock price as an indicator.
How much should we trust an analyst that admits he was wrong by a factor of 50%?
Analyst=congenitally challenged
Quote:
Originally Posted by Plagen
I don't understand why people are so unhappy with the lowballing "analysts". If you are a long-term investor and have a reason to believe in your company long-term growth shouldn't you be happy with the stock price falling? Just use that as an opportunity to buy.
Because these guys keep lowballing and talking like the stock won't ever go back up. Buying low is only great if you have faith you'll make some money. Most folks don't understand how or have the faith in trying to short a stock for profit (and that really works best if it drops fast)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil
Frankly it's hard to understand why we let this tripe be posted.
Why? What evidence is there for "failure" or "doing worse" even when they don't do something that one person by some magical arbitrary definition deems "blockbuster"?
"Frankly it's hard to understand why we let this tripe be posted."
Oh come on, I'm not being rude or inflammatory. I own the stock. I am unhappy. I am generally disclosing 'market concerns' not my concerns.
The fact of the matter this company has dropped hundred of billions of value. It is a fair and legitimate discussion to have to ask why and what they can do to change. I personally am not a fan of Tim Cook and think he is delusional if he thinks he can run the company the same way Steve did.
We all have out line in the sand. Stock drops another 50%, Google and Samsung surpass it in value while Tim says nothing and will you be happy?
Quote:
Originally Posted by allenbf
AAPL still takes the lion's share of profits. Please define "shrinking" without using stock price as an indicator.
Earnings last fiscal 2Q = 12.54/share; earnings this year same quarter, likely less than $10. That is my definition of shrink, an earnings drop of 20%. Annual earnings at best flat, more likely ~5% below last year. "Shrink" - when something decreases, like Apple's earnings per share are.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil
Frankly it's hard to understand why we let this tripe be posted.
Its not that hard at all. It's called Freedom of Speech, something the board owners believe in affording to all members even if they aren't American. Although they would likely rather members, especially moderators, avoid simply calling names and actually enter into a discussion about posted comments
As for your second comment, I agree that many folks, particularly in this and other similar boards/sites post based on their definition of what they want to see without thought to whether it really fits Apple's game plan as evidenced by what they have done (actions not rumors). As a pro editor I would like to see the return of Shake, either alone or in something else, but I don't expect it to ever happen. Some features did stick around but not the whole thing. And I live with this because I can see from really paying attention that Apple isn't using pros as their touchstone anymore. Haven't in a while in fact. Many folks want to see the iOS with account functions. I don't see it. Apple seems to be considering iOS devices as single user. And so on.
Originally Posted by jdnc123
I personally am not a fan of Tim Cook and think he is delusional if he thinks he can run the company the same way Steve did.
And yet you keep your stock in a company run by a "delusional" man and whine on forums, making things up as you go, instead of selling.
I wonder who's really delusional.
We all have out line in the sand. Stock drops another 50%, Google and Samsung surpass it in value while Tim says nothing and will you be happy?
As long as they're still making products that people want, services that people want, and making money hand over fist every quarter, the stock can go to $1 a share for all I care. As a stockholder, what you seem to have forgotten as that none of this matters in any respect to a company that cares about innovation. Nor should it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flaneur
Because people are fooled by big screens, and they are not consciously repelled by glossy, greasy-shiny plastic. But I believe many are subliminally repelled by greasy-shiny over a longer period of time, and when quality again falls into their hands, they'll respond correctly. Apple's product design is based on this belief in people's innate good taste. Samsung's designs are based on people's venal attraction to shiny, glossy things.
One is transitory, the other long-term.
Your opinion only... of course.
... but at least you stayed on argument and gave a reason why Samsung's sales are growing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit
Then why are Samsung's sales growing.
Because its cheap and many folks will buy into notion that its basically the same as iPhone etc but half the price. By the time they figure out its not its too late to return the phone for many and for the rest, the sales aren't adjusted for that return since Samsung posts channel sales which generally can't return the phone to Samsung but have to try to resell it as a refurb etc
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna
Because its cheap and many folks will buy into notion that its basically the same as iPhone etc but half the price. By the time they figure out its not its too late to return the phone for many and for the rest, the sales aren't adjusted for that return since Samsung posts channel sales which generally can't return the phone to Samsung but have to try to resell it as a refurb etc
Now that's silly.
Samsung is up to S4 and sales are still growing. Same with the Note 2. If what you say is true then sales should be shrinking by now.
[oh, and by the way... the 2 mentioned... not what you would really call cheap]