Yet Samsung will earn nearly as much as Apple this year, forecasted $51 billion EBITDA versus $60 billion for Apple. Two years ago, they made half as much. Both strategies can work and are. Lower volume / higher margin or higher volume / lower margin both work and we are seeing that. Its the fact that Samsung is growing much more quickly than Apple at this point that have people concerned that Apple's strategy needs a tweak.
Apple:
2011 — $108 billion revenue and $26 billion in net income (24% net profit margin)
2012 — $156.53 billion and $41 billion in net income (26.2% net profit margin)
A growth of 69% in revenue and 63% in profits YoY.
Samsung:
2011 — $220.1 billon revenue and $21.2 billion in net income (9.6% net profit margin)
2012 — $183.6 billon revenue and $26.5 billion in operating income (cant find net profit and unwilling to hunt down each quarter and do the currency conversion)
That's looks like a substantial YoY drop in revenue and only a fraction of Apple's net profits and profit margin. Nice try but you won't get away with that shit on this forum.
Frankly it's hard to understand why we let this tripe be posted.
Why? What evidence is there for "failure" or "doing worse" even when they don't do something that one person by some magical arbitrary definition deems "blockbuster"?
as much as it pains me to admit...TS you were right.....it seems everything news worthy about Apple is some kind of negative news story.
Despite selling out of every product they release....despite being market leaders in about every market the choose to enter.....despite have the best bottom line around......everyone wants to grab headlines and post doom and gloom about Apple.
That's based on stock value which fluctuates independently of how well Apple is actually doing. Heck, it shot up to $704 in September BEFORE the iPhone 5 launch. Then, it dropped because Apple didn't cure cancer, solve world hunger AND create more U.S. jobs. Analysts smoke way to much of something sometimes. At the same time, when Apple reported record profits a few months later... the stock also dropped. Basically any time Apple opens there mouth, the stock drops because it drops a dose of REALITY on these analysts and their wild, crazy, stupid dreams about what Apple would never do anyway didn't come true.
The main reason for this stock swap between Google and Apple is the hedge funds dropping Apple due to tax issues and then picking up Google. That's about it. The money moved, but that doesn't have any effect on Apple. Apple don't give a sh*t. Apple don't care. Apple is the honey badger here so they don't care if the competition thinks they're winning or not. They will flaunt all this wonderful stuff they are going to do, and Apple will show up to the party... maybe a little late... but they don't care... they're going to eat your face anyway.
Analysts are paranoid. Apple has said next to NOTHING about their plans for this year. Nothing. This is driving the analysts nuts and they have nothing to report. So they look for anything they can find. That's why you are getting news in both directions. iOS web usage and video views are 2/3 or greater of all devices... things like that. But since investors have turned bearish, the stock drops on any news. Just wait for Apple to announce what they are doing. They are going to take their time and they will only flaunt it when it's fully baked.
Well, I wouldn't say I'm doing it for free. I am doing it for negative value as I am losing money daily on the stock fort 6 months now. Nobody want to answer the question. When Tim Cook took over, the combined value of Apple/Google/Samsung was $530 billion and Apple was $300 billion of that. Today the combined value is $690 billion and Apple is $265 billion of the total. The total imputed value of the three largest mobile players has increased, Apple has shrunk.
I can give me my reasons, but let's hear yours Flaneur. Why is Apple shrinking as competitors grow?
Sorry you temporarily losing, but the solution is not to add to the negative psychology out there.
My first premise, like others here, e.g. charlituna, Tallest Skil, is that the problem with the stock valuation is psychological, a hysteria spread by "analysts" and tech "journalists" who don't understand what Apple is about and how it works. They in turn are working from a desire to see Apple fail, either from market-manipulative reasons or from some weird jealous, anticipatory schadenfreude.
I think this is undeniably the problem with the market valuation. You are making yourself part of the problem. You have caught the virus. The cure is patience. Tim Cook and Jony Ive know what they're doing.
Apple isn't going to follow Samsung and rush out big-screen glossy trash. IF they make a larger-screen device, it's going to be like their most successful recent product, the iPad mini, something surprisingly desireable, something so much clearly better than the competition, that it will just quietly take over the category. Like the iPad mini has done—but you wouldn't know that by reading the "analysts" or commenters like yourself
And yet you keep your stock in a company run by a "delusional" man and whine on forums, making things up as you go, instead of selling.
I wonder who's really delusional.
As long as they're still making products that people want, services that people want, and making money hand over fist every quarter, the stock can go to $1 a share for all I care. As a stockholder, what you seem to have forgotten as that none of this matters in any respect to a company that cares about innovation. Nor should it.
What have I made up? I express the same concerns directly to the company. I think the stock is cheap, but though that awhile ago also.
So Apple deserves to be treated differently than every other company in the world by its investors why? Why should they be allowed to ignore investors when nobody else can. We are talking about the people that own the company. Employees/management actually hold very little of their own stock in this company relative to most (recently changed to force them to hold more), but the people who have no vested interest other than their paychecks and stock options should over rule the true owners of the company? What a bizarre attitude. Akin to being a restaurant owner who has no say in the business because the chef makes good food. Doesn't happen in the real world, only in the fantasy land some live in.
"The market" also believed that Apple would be an EFFING FAILURE without a 2.5" iPhone that didn't have cellular data or apps of any sort. They also believed that Apple would be an EFFING FAILURE if they didn't introduce a television set. And a tower-based consumer desktop. And Blu-ray. And USB on their iDevices. And an SD card slot on their iDevices. And if Apple doesn't release a DVR, hoo-boy, they're a failure.
Well if you look at things some folks would say that your list is why the price is down and not the analysts manipulating it with their smack talk.
Couple of things on that list have been addressed to some device. At least in early steps of addressing.
the only thing I'd like to see is perhaps that simple phone. Or a simple mode. My parents aren't really into tech but the UI of the big keypad, the accessibility features etc might be good for them. I'd love to get them the lowest model iPhone and be able to turn off the apps they would never use so it doesn't confuse them. That would also work with kids. Be able to turn off all built in apps, even downloaded ones, in a simple/kid mode and have the system remember it so if I turn it off so I can use it full out I can flip it back by turning restrictions back on
2011 — $108 billion revenue and $26 billion in net income (24% net profit margin)
2012 — $156.53 billion and $41 billion in net income (26.2% net profit margin)
A growth of 69% in revenue and 63% in profits YoY.
Samsung:
2011 — $220.1 billon revenue and $21.2 billion in net income (9.6% net profit margin)
2012 — $183.6 billon revenue and $26.5 billion in operating income (cant find net profit and unwilling to hunt down each quarter and do the currency conversion)
That's looks like a substantial YoY drop in revenue and only a fraction of Apple's net profits and profit margin. Nice try but you won't get away with that shit on this forum.
Past is the past. Market is pricing in future earnings. Who is growing faster going forward is the issue. If the stock was based on past performance we wouldn't be having this discussion. Nobody cares about the past. All sourced from Bloomberg estimates
Apple
2013 - $181.8 billion revenue, $60 billion EBITDA, $41.7 billion net income
Samsung
2013 - $204 billion revenue, $52 billion EBITDA, $29 billion net income
Seriously, the $260+ billion drop in value has nothing to do with the past, the market expects the future to get a lot harder for Apple and is questioning if they are up to the challenge. The answer is nobody know, even those here bashing me. Unless you are an insider, you know as much as I do about whether they will be able to right the ship and grow earnings again. If not, the stock is going a lot lower.
November 8, 2012: "Apple (AAPL) is reiterated a Buy with $900 price target by Jefferies' Peter Misek, who sees the firm's gross margin issues being positively resolved in Q4. "
When it's hot he predicts more hot, when it's cold he predicts more cold. In other words Misek has no clue.
Well, I wouldn't say I'm doing it for free. I am doing it for negative value as I am losing money daily on the stock fort 6 months now. Nobody want to answer the question. When Tim Cook took over, the combined value of Apple/Google/Samsung was $530 billion and Apple was $300 billion of that. Today the combined value is $690 billion and Apple is $265 billion of the total. The total imputed value of the three largest mobile players has increased, Apple has shrunk.
I can give me my reasons, but let's hear yours Flaneur. Why is Apple shrinking as competitors grow?
You only lose/gain money when you sell.
Hyping the stock in the first place is what pushed it to $700+, which most should have sold then to take profits off the table. Now would be the time to buy as Apple will be rolling out new products and updated products over the coming months which will drive the price, temporarily.
Stocks are not driven by company performance as much as investor manipulation, unless IPOs. That is why the saying "buy on rumor sell on news" came from. Notice how Apple does not build the hype before a product launch, but the investment industry does, so when it comes to fruition, people are already worked up and buy the stock. To which they sell into 'news'.
Then notice that once they hype of a new product dies down with the launch, they are out bashing the product and how Apple is doomed. Again lowering the stock so they can buy it again.
You just have to get on the correct cycle for the stock. If you think Apple has new products in the pipeline, now is the time to buy and then sell into the news to take profit. If you don't think Apple has any new products, or can move current products further out from the competition, then you might want to sell here and buy back one the price is lower.
Personally (which my opinion does not matter at all) I believe Apple has new products in the pipe and will have significant updates to current products this year.
Siri is young and has much to offer yet. The watch will be huge as it is very fashionable with the under 30 crowd. I think Apple will make a final push this year or next to make the iPad family to replace the PC, and anything not an iPad will be in the Macbook family. Bringing all your iDevices together with Siri and iCloud will continue to be the focus.
Most of this is obvious and nothing new, but as a reminder of what is possible.
Yet Samsung will earn nearly as much as Apple this year, forecasted $51 billion EBITDA versus $60 billion for Apple. Two years ago, they made half as much. Both strategies can work and are. Lower volume / higher margin or higher volume / lower margin both work and we are seeing that. Its the fact that Samsung is growing much more quickly than Apple at this point that have people concerned that Apple's strategy needs a tweak.
The key phrase is "at this point". Both strategies can work, but only to a point. The latter can only work so far, it's unsustainable in the long run. It's a race to the bottom. It's basically like burning books in the fireplace to keep yourself warm, it will last for maybe a few minutes and then it will be cold again. If one of the biggest selling points to Samsung phones is price then others will start to eat their lunch by offering even cheaper phones. If Apple holds their ground then they will always come out on top in net earnings over the long run. Fortunately Tim Cook agrees with this thank goodness! Imagine if one of these analyst "geniuses" was in charge instead and decided to make 10 billion phones and sell them to make $1 of profit each! I mean seriously, talk about killing the cash cow here, Apple's strategy has worked beyond the wildest expectations and now people are suggesting they should stop it and do what everyone else is and has been doing of which there are countless examples of failure over the years. I mean, of course that they would love nothing more than Apple to fail.
I personally am not a fan of Tim Cook and think he is delusional if he thinks he can run the company the same way Steve did.
Who says that he is.
Steve took a public dump on the idea of a smaller iPad. Tim released it.
Steve kept his buddy Scott around despite the guy being, it seems, an asshat that hated everyone and took no orders or even feedback from anyone buy Steve. He screwed up big time with the issues in iOS 6 and refused to take the blame and was fired for it as the straw on the camel's back.
Steve for various reasons wasn't big into public charity particularly when it used company money. Tim started the matching program for employee donations.
Steve was a bit sue happy, Tim prefers trying to settle first and sue only when really needed.
The COO, not really the CEO, is the guy that ran the company as he was the one dealing with the details. That was Tim, not Steve.
So how exactly is Tim trying to run the company like Steve did?
If you have an issue with stock value, well. Take your losses and move on to another investment.
Past is the past. Market is pricing in future earnings. Who is growing faster going forward is the issue. If the stock was based on past performance we wouldn't be having this discussion. Nobody cares about the past. All sourced from Bloomberg estimates
Apple
2013 - $181.8 billion revenue, $60 billion EBITDA, $41.7 billion net income
Samsung
2013 - $204 billion revenue, $52 billion EBITDA, $29 billion net income
Seriously, the $260+ billion drop in value has nothing to do with the past, the market expects the future to get a lot harder for Apple and is questioning if they are up to the challenge. The answer is nobody know, even those here bashing me. Unless you are an insider, you know as much as I do about whether they will be able to right the ship and grow earnings again. If not, the stock is going a lot lower.
1) So you're ignoring the two most recent YoY results and replacing actual data with projected data that you either pulled from your own ass or from one or more analysts like some grotesque Russian nesting doll of made up shit. Brilliant¡
2) Even by Bloomberg estimates Apple is increasing their revenue by a larger value and percentage than Samsung which still makes your original comment BS, even ignoring that these estimates still put Samsung $16 billion less than they made back in 2011. At least try to polish the turd you are presenting.
No-Brainer: 4-for-1 stock split right here ( stock isnt going any lower), maintain current $8+ dividend, and buy back another significant chunk of shares?
Then, acquire NFLX or Disney, AND acquire an enterprise or startup focused on big-data visualization/analytics since every executive in business wants real time information and AAPL was initially famous for, and the tool of choice for all graphics designers!
Every old school trader has deemed AAPL the modern day RCA. I don't agree, but it's too bad, and puzzling to me why AAPL execs have let the glitter of their stock price turn into a train wreck while the rest of market(s) seem to be flourishing via financial engineering as well.
What's wrong with rewarding investors and keeping them on board via insane profits and distributions? Isn't that the reason both tech & financial gurus supposedly work together?
Wall St. is obviously flocking out of AAPL just as fast as they flocked to it, mostly because one of the smartest guys in the history of the world, SJ, is gone and the money guys don't believe he can be replaced by anyone or group of people.
And so far Cook & Co. are proving the diissenters right AND creating unnecessary obstacles and challenges to retain their envious and still unchallenged championship title in the world.
But Cook reminds me of Scotty Pippen and Da Bulls without Jordan, they couldn't win a title without MJ, and APPL is tanking without SJ, especially if they miss next quarter, AGAIN!!!
Why is it that BMW can put out several models AND cater to custmoers and investors, but APPL is immune to such hassles? Why doesn't China Mobile have an iPhone? Why?
Sorry you temporarily losing, but the solution is not to add to the negative psychology out there.
My first premise, like others here, e.g. charlituna, Tallest Skil, is that the problem with the stock valuation is psychological, a hysteria spread by "analysts" and tech "journalists" who don't understand what Apple is about and how it works. They in turn are working from a desire to see Apple fail, either from market-manipulative reasons or from some weird jealous, anticipatory schadenfreude.
I think this is undeniably the problem with the market valuation. You are making yourself part of the problem. You have caught the virus. The cure is patience. Tim Cook and Jony Ive know what they're doing.
Apple isn't going to follow Samsung and rush out big-screen glossy trash. IF they make a larger-screen device, it's going to be like their most successful recent product, the iPad mini, something surprisingly desireable, something so much clearly better than the competition, that it will just quietly take over the category. Like the iPad mini has done—but you wouldn't know that by reading the "analysts" or commenters like yourself
Analysts and journalists don't own the stock. As a buyside guy who covered a number of industries, including tech, it is at least my m.o. to not care what the sellside says other than to check my own numbers. You are naive if you think large institutional investors really care what the analyst at Jefferies has to say. They are dumping their shares based on their own modeling, their meetings with management and what they are seeing from competitors. Listen, I have an Apple model, it is very tough to see any earnings growth this year, I think it doesn't happen, but they need to put a foundation in place for 2014 and beyond that the company can grow earnings again and the stock will react in-kind. Every day they say nothing and no new products come out is another day it gets easier to think earnings shrink not just in 2013 but again in 2014 and that is why the stock is acting this way. I don't buy into market manipulation, jealousy, etc., those are just arguments for people that don't want to address legit issues. Most large institutional buyers would be buying the stock up (imagine some are) if they believe this had absolutely nothing to do with fundamentals and was purely psychological. Those are the type of situations you live for where the market over-reacts. There is no evidence the fundamentals are making large buyers comfortable buying yet.
Is psychology part of this drop? Sure. But the reality is the psychology of Apple no longer being innovative, etc. IS to some extent self-inflicted.
Was it over-owned. Yep. Do people need to rebalance and sell. Yep. Are people getting out because its performance is crushing their relative performance vs indices. Yep. All that feeds on itself, but those are issues when a stock turns downward. You are fine being overweight a name that is outperforming.
And so far Cook & Co. are proving the diissenters right AND creating unnecessary obstacles and challenges to retain their envious and still unchallenged championship title in the world.
By… continuing to grow sales and profits. Uh huh.
Why is it that BMW can put out several models AND cater to custmoers and investors, but APPL is immune to such hassles?
This question will be answered once you understand why it can't be asked.
So, Jefferies just revealed the price HE wants to buy in at, in anticipation of a massive jump later in the year%u2026?
One after another, the "anal-ysts" trot out their dire predictions, bumping the stock up or down for a day, and making out like bandits%u2026
What, two weeks ago that other guy whispering about a stock split, then selling off on the resulting spike? Now this, and an immediate 7-point drop results.
Apple COULD end up in trouble if they keep hammering at the market like this%u2026 "Apple is on the ropes", "they are heading out of style", leaving the potential buyer with uncertainty%u2026 and sales decline.
Creating a self-fulfilling narrative isn't following the market, it's manipulating it%u2026.
I bet that if Apple simply uses the name iPhone 6 instead of iPhone 5S that would create enough buzz to shut the naysayers up. Rightly or wrongly people perceive the S versions as a slight tweak instead of an entirely new phone. It just doesn't seem to get people as excited as a whole number change. It can still be the exact same phone they are planning to release, just change the name and that will make most people happy. Perception is reality after all.
That is of course assuming that the planned 5S is the only model that they will release later this year. If they were to also release a cheaper version and/or a larger screen version that would create a lot of excitement again in Apple.
Stock prices are rarely about fundamentals or even profits. They are about possibilities and predictions and ultimately about hype and buzz. Even Apple commercials recently seem a bit lacking. To channel Jerry Seinfeld for a minute, what's the deal with those new iPad commercials showing the words with the annoying background music? At the very least Apple needs to spend some of that horde of cash of a new ad campaign for their iOS and OS X product lines and bring back a bit of the cool factor they seem to have lost in advertising.
I express my concerns as a very worried stockholder wanting this downward spiral to reverse. With quite a bit of skin in the game I very much want Apple to succeed. If I didn't own any Apple shares I might view things differently or be more willing to give them the benefit of the doubt and be more patient. Women's basketball is also very good at the fundamentals but don't get many fans in the stands to watch. They need more than fundamentals, they need to recapture and claim ownership of cool once again.
I hope Apple has a few surprises in store this year because I just don't think a 4" iPhone 5S and new iPads will stop the stock decline. One bright spot though may be an iPhone for China Mobile, DoCoMo in Japan, T-Mobile, and possibly a few more large carriers overseas.
Comments
Apple:
2012 — $156.53 billion and $41 billion in net income (26.2% net profit margin)
A growth of 69% in revenue and 63% in profits YoY.
Samsung:
2012 — $183.6 billon revenue and $26.5 billion in operating income (cant find net profit and unwilling to hunt down each quarter and do the currency conversion)
That's looks like a substantial YoY drop in revenue and only a fraction of Apple's net profits and profit margin. Nice try but you won't get away with that shit on this forum.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil
Frankly it's hard to understand why we let this tripe be posted.
Why? What evidence is there for "failure" or "doing worse" even when they don't do something that one person by some magical arbitrary definition deems "blockbuster"?
as much as it pains me to admit...TS you were right.....it seems everything news worthy about Apple is some kind of negative news story.
Despite selling out of every product they release....despite being market leaders in about every market the choose to enter.....despite have the best bottom line around......everyone wants to grab headlines and post doom and gloom about Apple.
That's based on stock value which fluctuates independently of how well Apple is actually doing. Heck, it shot up to $704 in September BEFORE the iPhone 5 launch. Then, it dropped because Apple didn't cure cancer, solve world hunger AND create more U.S. jobs. Analysts smoke way to much of something sometimes. At the same time, when Apple reported record profits a few months later... the stock also dropped. Basically any time Apple opens there mouth, the stock drops because it drops a dose of REALITY on these analysts and their wild, crazy, stupid dreams about what Apple would never do anyway didn't come true.
The main reason for this stock swap between Google and Apple is the hedge funds dropping Apple due to tax issues and then picking up Google. That's about it. The money moved, but that doesn't have any effect on Apple. Apple don't give a sh*t. Apple don't care. Apple is the honey badger here so they don't care if the competition thinks they're winning or not. They will flaunt all this wonderful stuff they are going to do, and Apple will show up to the party... maybe a little late... but they don't care... they're going to eat your face anyway.
Analysts are paranoid. Apple has said next to NOTHING about their plans for this year. Nothing. This is driving the analysts nuts and they have nothing to report. So they look for anything they can find. That's why you are getting news in both directions. iOS web usage and video views are 2/3 or greater of all devices... things like that. But since investors have turned bearish, the stock drops on any news. Just wait for Apple to announce what they are doing. They are going to take their time and they will only flaunt it when it's fully baked.
Sorry you temporarily losing, but the solution is not to add to the negative psychology out there.
My first premise, like others here, e.g. charlituna, Tallest Skil, is that the problem with the stock valuation is psychological, a hysteria spread by "analysts" and tech "journalists" who don't understand what Apple is about and how it works. They in turn are working from a desire to see Apple fail, either from market-manipulative reasons or from some weird jealous, anticipatory schadenfreude.
I think this is undeniably the problem with the market valuation. You are making yourself part of the problem. You have caught the virus. The cure is patience. Tim Cook and Jony Ive know what they're doing.
Apple isn't going to follow Samsung and rush out big-screen glossy trash. IF they make a larger-screen device, it's going to be like their most successful recent product, the iPad mini, something surprisingly desireable, something so much clearly better than the competition, that it will just quietly take over the category. Like the iPad mini has done—but you wouldn't know that by reading the "analysts" or commenters like yourself
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil
And yet you keep your stock in a company run by a "delusional" man and whine on forums, making things up as you go, instead of selling.
I wonder who's really delusional.
As long as they're still making products that people want, services that people want, and making money hand over fist every quarter, the stock can go to $1 a share for all I care. As a stockholder, what you seem to have forgotten as that none of this matters in any respect to a company that cares about innovation. Nor should it.
What have I made up? I express the same concerns directly to the company. I think the stock is cheap, but though that awhile ago also.
So Apple deserves to be treated differently than every other company in the world by its investors why? Why should they be allowed to ignore investors when nobody else can. We are talking about the people that own the company. Employees/management actually hold very little of their own stock in this company relative to most (recently changed to force them to hold more), but the people who have no vested interest other than their paychecks and stock options should over rule the true owners of the company? What a bizarre attitude. Akin to being a restaurant owner who has no say in the business because the chef makes good food. Doesn't happen in the real world, only in the fantasy land some live in.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil
"The market" also believed that Apple would be an EFFING FAILURE without a 2.5" iPhone that didn't have cellular data or apps of any sort. They also believed that Apple would be an EFFING FAILURE if they didn't introduce a television set. And a tower-based consumer desktop. And Blu-ray. And USB on their iDevices. And an SD card slot on their iDevices. And if Apple doesn't release a DVR, hoo-boy, they're a failure.
Well if you look at things some folks would say that your list is why the price is down and not the analysts manipulating it with their smack talk.
Couple of things on that list have been addressed to some device. At least in early steps of addressing.
the only thing I'd like to see is perhaps that simple phone. Or a simple mode. My parents aren't really into tech but the UI of the big keypad, the accessibility features etc might be good for them. I'd love to get them the lowest model iPhone and be able to turn off the apps they would never use so it doesn't confuse them. That would also work with kids. Be able to turn off all built in apps, even downloaded ones, in a simple/kid mode and have the system remember it so if I turn it off so I can use it full out I can flip it back by turning restrictions back on
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX
Apple:
2011 — $108 billion revenue and $26 billion in net income (24% net profit margin)
2012 — $156.53 billion and $41 billion in net income (26.2% net profit margin)
A growth of 69% in revenue and 63% in profits YoY.
Samsung:
2011 — $220.1 billon revenue and $21.2 billion in net income (9.6% net profit margin)
2012 — $183.6 billon revenue and $26.5 billion in operating income (cant find net profit and unwilling to hunt down each quarter and do the currency conversion)
That's looks like a substantial YoY drop in revenue and only a fraction of Apple's net profits and profit margin. Nice try but you won't get away with that shit on this forum.
Past is the past. Market is pricing in future earnings. Who is growing faster going forward is the issue. If the stock was based on past performance we wouldn't be having this discussion. Nobody cares about the past. All sourced from Bloomberg estimates
Apple
2013 - $181.8 billion revenue, $60 billion EBITDA, $41.7 billion net income
Samsung
2013 - $204 billion revenue, $52 billion EBITDA, $29 billion net income
Seriously, the $260+ billion drop in value has nothing to do with the past, the market expects the future to get a lot harder for Apple and is questioning if they are up to the challenge. The answer is nobody know, even those here bashing me. Unless you are an insider, you know as much as I do about whether they will be able to right the ship and grow earnings again. If not, the stock is going a lot lower.
When it's hot he predicts more hot, when it's cold he predicts more cold. In other words Misek has no clue.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123
Well, I wouldn't say I'm doing it for free. I am doing it for negative value as I am losing money daily on the stock fort 6 months now. Nobody want to answer the question. When Tim Cook took over, the combined value of Apple/Google/Samsung was $530 billion and Apple was $300 billion of that. Today the combined value is $690 billion and Apple is $265 billion of the total. The total imputed value of the three largest mobile players has increased, Apple has shrunk.
I can give me my reasons, but let's hear yours Flaneur. Why is Apple shrinking as competitors grow?
You only lose/gain money when you sell.
Hyping the stock in the first place is what pushed it to $700+, which most should have sold then to take profits off the table. Now would be the time to buy as Apple will be rolling out new products and updated products over the coming months which will drive the price, temporarily.
Stocks are not driven by company performance as much as investor manipulation, unless IPOs. That is why the saying "buy on rumor sell on news" came from. Notice how Apple does not build the hype before a product launch, but the investment industry does, so when it comes to fruition, people are already worked up and buy the stock. To which they sell into 'news'.
Then notice that once they hype of a new product dies down with the launch, they are out bashing the product and how Apple is doomed. Again lowering the stock so they can buy it again.
You just have to get on the correct cycle for the stock. If you think Apple has new products in the pipeline, now is the time to buy and then sell into the news to take profit. If you don't think Apple has any new products, or can move current products further out from the competition, then you might want to sell here and buy back one the price is lower.
Personally (which my opinion does not matter at all) I believe Apple has new products in the pipe and will have significant updates to current products this year.
Siri is young and has much to offer yet. The watch will be huge as it is very fashionable with the under 30 crowd. I think Apple will make a final push this year or next to make the iPad family to replace the PC, and anything not an iPad will be in the Macbook family. Bringing all your iDevices together with Siri and iCloud will continue to be the focus.
Most of this is obvious and nothing new, but as a reminder of what is possible.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123
Yet Samsung will earn nearly as much as Apple this year, forecasted $51 billion EBITDA versus $60 billion for Apple. Two years ago, they made half as much. Both strategies can work and are. Lower volume / higher margin or higher volume / lower margin both work and we are seeing that. Its the fact that Samsung is growing much more quickly than Apple at this point that have people concerned that Apple's strategy needs a tweak.
The key phrase is "at this point". Both strategies can work, but only to a point. The latter can only work so far, it's unsustainable in the long run. It's a race to the bottom. It's basically like burning books in the fireplace to keep yourself warm, it will last for maybe a few minutes and then it will be cold again. If one of the biggest selling points to Samsung phones is price then others will start to eat their lunch by offering even cheaper phones. If Apple holds their ground then they will always come out on top in net earnings over the long run. Fortunately Tim Cook agrees with this thank goodness! Imagine if one of these analyst "geniuses" was in charge instead and decided to make 10 billion phones and sell them to make $1 of profit each! I mean seriously, talk about killing the cash cow here, Apple's strategy has worked beyond the wildest expectations and now people are suggesting they should stop it and do what everyone else is and has been doing of which there are countless examples of failure over the years. I mean, of course that they would love nothing more than Apple to fail.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123
I personally am not a fan of Tim Cook and think he is delusional if he thinks he can run the company the same way Steve did.
Who says that he is.
Steve took a public dump on the idea of a smaller iPad. Tim released it.
Steve kept his buddy Scott around despite the guy being, it seems, an asshat that hated everyone and took no orders or even feedback from anyone buy Steve. He screwed up big time with the issues in iOS 6 and refused to take the blame and was fired for it as the straw on the camel's back.
Steve for various reasons wasn't big into public charity particularly when it used company money. Tim started the matching program for employee donations.
Steve was a bit sue happy, Tim prefers trying to settle first and sue only when really needed.
The COO, not really the CEO, is the guy that ran the company as he was the one dealing with the details. That was Tim, not Steve.
So how exactly is Tim trying to run the company like Steve did?
If you have an issue with stock value, well. Take your losses and move on to another investment.
1) So you're ignoring the two most recent YoY results and replacing actual data with projected data that you either pulled from your own ass or from one or more analysts like some grotesque Russian nesting doll of made up shit. Brilliant¡
2) Even by Bloomberg estimates Apple is increasing their revenue by a larger value and percentage than Samsung which still makes your original comment BS, even ignoring that these estimates still put Samsung $16 billion less than they made back in 2011. At least try to polish the turd you are presenting.
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit
Samsung is up to S4 and sales are still growing. Same with the Note 2. If what you say is true then sales should be shrinking by now.
Channel sales. How many of those go into and stay in the hands of a consumer. Who knows but it might not be as good as Samsung wants us to think
Originally Posted by jdnc123
What have I made up?
Apple is stagnating. Innovation is lacking.
unfortunately, a 5S won't change
they will miss.
Complete and utter garbage that Cook likes to shove down the throats of people who aren't smart or diligent enough to read the fine print.
The market and I get it that he was lying to us
And this is just the stuff that can't be interpreted as an 'opinion'.
Then, acquire NFLX or Disney, AND acquire an enterprise or startup focused on big-data visualization/analytics since every executive in business wants real time information and AAPL was initially famous for, and the tool of choice for all graphics designers!
Every old school trader has deemed AAPL the modern day RCA. I don't agree, but it's too bad, and puzzling to me why AAPL execs have let the glitter of their stock price turn into a train wreck while the rest of market(s) seem to be flourishing via financial engineering as well.
What's wrong with rewarding investors and keeping them on board via insane profits and distributions? Isn't that the reason both tech & financial gurus supposedly work together?
Wall St. is obviously flocking out of AAPL just as fast as they flocked to it, mostly because one of the smartest guys in the history of the world, SJ, is gone and the money guys don't believe he can be replaced by anyone or group of people.
And so far Cook & Co. are proving the diissenters right AND creating unnecessary obstacles and challenges to retain their envious and still unchallenged championship title in the world.
But Cook reminds me of Scotty Pippen and Da Bulls without Jordan, they couldn't win a title without MJ, and APPL is tanking without SJ, especially if they miss next quarter, AGAIN!!!
Why is it that BMW can put out several models AND cater to custmoers and investors, but APPL is immune to such hassles? Why doesn't China Mobile have an iPhone? Why?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flaneur
Sorry you temporarily losing, but the solution is not to add to the negative psychology out there.
My first premise, like others here, e.g. charlituna, Tallest Skil, is that the problem with the stock valuation is psychological, a hysteria spread by "analysts" and tech "journalists" who don't understand what Apple is about and how it works. They in turn are working from a desire to see Apple fail, either from market-manipulative reasons or from some weird jealous, anticipatory schadenfreude.
I think this is undeniably the problem with the market valuation. You are making yourself part of the problem. You have caught the virus. The cure is patience. Tim Cook and Jony Ive know what they're doing.
Apple isn't going to follow Samsung and rush out big-screen glossy trash. IF they make a larger-screen device, it's going to be like their most successful recent product, the iPad mini, something surprisingly desireable, something so much clearly better than the competition, that it will just quietly take over the category. Like the iPad mini has done—but you wouldn't know that by reading the "analysts" or commenters like yourself
Analysts and journalists don't own the stock. As a buyside guy who covered a number of industries, including tech, it is at least my m.o. to not care what the sellside says other than to check my own numbers. You are naive if you think large institutional investors really care what the analyst at Jefferies has to say. They are dumping their shares based on their own modeling, their meetings with management and what they are seeing from competitors. Listen, I have an Apple model, it is very tough to see any earnings growth this year, I think it doesn't happen, but they need to put a foundation in place for 2014 and beyond that the company can grow earnings again and the stock will react in-kind. Every day they say nothing and no new products come out is another day it gets easier to think earnings shrink not just in 2013 but again in 2014 and that is why the stock is acting this way. I don't buy into market manipulation, jealousy, etc., those are just arguments for people that don't want to address legit issues. Most large institutional buyers would be buying the stock up (imagine some are) if they believe this had absolutely nothing to do with fundamentals and was purely psychological. Those are the type of situations you live for where the market over-reacts. There is no evidence the fundamentals are making large buyers comfortable buying yet.
Is psychology part of this drop? Sure. But the reality is the psychology of Apple no longer being innovative, etc. IS to some extent self-inflicted.
Was it over-owned. Yep. Do people need to rebalance and sell. Yep. Are people getting out because its performance is crushing their relative performance vs indices. Yep. All that feeds on itself, but those are issues when a stock turns downward. You are fine being overweight a name that is outperforming.
Originally Posted by TJRSV
And so far Cook & Co. are proving the diissenters right AND creating unnecessary obstacles and challenges to retain their envious and still unchallenged championship title in the world.
By… continuing to grow sales and profits. Uh huh.
Why is it that BMW can put out several models AND cater to custmoers and investors, but APPL is immune to such hassles?
This question will be answered once you understand why it can't be asked.
Why doesn't China Mobile have an iPhone?
Ask the Chinese.
One after another, the "anal-ysts" trot out their dire predictions, bumping the stock up or down for a day, and making out like bandits%u2026
What, two weeks ago that other guy whispering about a stock split, then selling off on the resulting spike? Now this, and an immediate 7-point drop results.
Apple COULD end up in trouble if they keep hammering at the market like this%u2026 "Apple is on the ropes", "they are heading out of style", leaving the potential buyer with uncertainty%u2026 and sales decline.
Creating a self-fulfilling narrative isn't following the market, it's manipulating it%u2026.
That is of course assuming that the planned 5S is the only model that they will release later this year. If they were to also release a cheaper version and/or a larger screen version that would create a lot of excitement again in Apple.
Stock prices are rarely about fundamentals or even profits. They are about possibilities and predictions and ultimately about hype and buzz. Even Apple commercials recently seem a bit lacking. To channel Jerry Seinfeld for a minute, what's the deal with those new iPad commercials showing the words with the annoying background music? At the very least Apple needs to spend some of that horde of cash of a new ad campaign for their iOS and OS X product lines and bring back a bit of the cool factor they seem to have lost in advertising.
I express my concerns as a very worried stockholder wanting this downward spiral to reverse. With quite a bit of skin in the game I very much want Apple to succeed. If I didn't own any Apple shares I might view things differently or be more willing to give them the benefit of the doubt and be more patient. Women's basketball is also very good at the fundamentals but don't get many fans in the stands to watch. They need more than fundamentals, they need to recapture and claim ownership of cool once again.
I hope Apple has a few surprises in store this year because I just don't think a 4" iPhone 5S and new iPads will stop the stock decline. One bright spot though may be an iPhone for China Mobile, DoCoMo in Japan, T-Mobile, and possibly a few more large carriers overseas.