Munster, Siegler, Agreda talk iWatch, iTVs, and Apple's 'groove'

Posted:
in General Discussion edited January 2014
The recent media trend of negative news on Apple is just a phase that will pass according to analyst Gene Munster and pundit MG Siegler, both of whom agree that the coming months will see Apple getting its groove back with a refresh in its product lines, as well as perhaps some new products.

iMacs


Siegler and Munster spoke on a panel along with TUAW's editor-in-chief, Victor Agreda, with all parties agreeing that Apple's sales figures fly in the face of the negative coverage the company has been receiving of late. Part of the problem, Siegler contended, was the considerable success the company has achieved over the past few years.

"I'd say it's mostly a media-driven anomaly right now," Siegler said of the current perception of Apple. "There's definitely some truth to the idea of, you know, success: You're as high as you can go. Where can you go from there?"

Munster backed up Siegler's assertion, saying that a lull in Apple product releases, in combination with a shakeup in the company's corporate structure, may give the impression that the iPhone maker is in trouble.

"I think it's a cycle," Munster said. "They had an abnormally large amount of products that were released at the end of the year. So I do think that that, mixed with the executive shakeup, is changing way that their products are released."

All three panelists agreed that Apple must move to address the low-cost smartphone market in order to continue growing. Munster was upbeat on Apple's chances going forward.

"I think the international markets, the lower-cost markets," Munster said, "are the biggest reason to be excited about Apple over the next few years. They can't continue to expand like this with their current prices. Two hundred dollars in a lot of markets is a ton of money, and I think Apple historically hasn't been very sensitive to that, but they're waking up to that fact."

Munster also went on to discuss the long-rumored Apple TV, saying that checks with his sources, in addition to Apple executive comments, made him certain that the company is working on such a device. The Piper Jaffray analyst said that talks with persons close to Apple lead him to believe that the company is building a television, but that it's simply a question of when it may be released. Asked to hazard a guess, Munster provided a movable target.

"We think it's six months after the App Store comes to Apple TV," Munster said. "Our best guess is that it's late this year. We don't have it in our model right now, but we think it will be announced by the end of this year."

Munster cited a survey conducted by Piper Jaffray, in which respondents were asked if they would purchase an Apple TV. According to Munster, about 50 percent of respondents said they would be interested in buying such a device. When asked if they would still be interested in such a device at a $1,500 price point, that number dropped to 12 percent. Still, Munster holds, the fact that so many were interested in the hypothetical device bodes well for Apple.

The rumored iWatch, which recently drew attention away from a possible Apple TV, was also seen as an area of interest. The commentators agreed that wearable computing could represent a significant area of expansion for the Cupertino company, and even a long-term replacement for the iPhone; Apple, though, would have to solve the battery problem before such a device could replace its best-selling product.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 74
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,399member


    So three people that know nothing whatsoever about a company's internal workings or future products get to talk about them, publicly, and have their opinions (again, based on zero actual information) taken as fact.


     


    Oh, and they don't get sued or go to prison or even fined for this. 


     


    Great.

  • Reply 2 of 74
    isaidsoisaidso Posts: 750member
    "The Piper Jaffray analyst said that talks with persons close to Apple lead him to believe that the company is building a television"

    Yeah, they are building a television.
    What they're NOT building is a television screen. Nobody wants, or needs a "screen" (I have 7 of them from 13" to 50".
  • Reply 3 of 74
    runbuhrunbuh Posts: 315member
    If they were to knowingly convey actual information about future Apple products, that's when they would get in trouble.
  • Reply 4 of 74
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 31,198member
    What "getting it's groove back"? Apple is making money hand over fist. The pummeling of Apple's stock is wholly created by goons like Munster and institutional shorts.
  • Reply 5 of 74
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,399member


    Originally Posted by isaidso View Post

    Yeah, they are building a television.

    What they're NOT building is a television screen. Nobody wants, or needs a "screen" (I have 7 of them from 13" to 50".


     


    Intriguing. Apple would be the company to redefine the industry on both ends by completely change the definition of the name…


     


    Redefine "television" as hardware while redefining "television" as "no longer package content"… 


     


    Shame my dreams are more idealistic than reality would ever be.

  • Reply 6 of 74
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 31,198member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


    So three people that know nothing whatsoever about a company's internal workings or future products get to talk about them, publicly, and have their opinions (again, based on zero actual information) taken as fact.


     


    Oh, and they don't get sued or go to prison or even fined for this. 


     


    Great.



     


    You know what they say, "Opinions are like ********... everyone has one." I guess having an opinion just isn't enough to get fined or imprisoned.

  • Reply 7 of 74
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,399member


    Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

    You know what they say, "Opinions are like ********... everyone has one." I guess having an opinion just isn't enough to get fined or imprisoned.


     


    When the opinion can drum up a fantasy product that loses a company 100 billion when it doesn't (nor was it ever going to) exist, I think there should be at least some sort of accountability. The Amish system really doesn't work on that level… 

  • Reply 8 of 74
    bushman4bushman4 Posts: 804member


    If Gene Munster, agrees with the assertions being made, we are all better off betting against it.


    Munsters track record is so poor that it speaks for itself. Enough said!!

  • Reply 9 of 74
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,705member
    I don't think an Apple TV set is in the cards. Lots of people have tvs already and thise last 10-15 years. Now a AppleTV App Store looks promising.

    Enough with a new low cost iPhone. The 4 will probably be altered with lightning and will be that low cost phone when the 5S/6 is released.
  • Reply 10 of 74
    nagrommenagromme Posts: 2,834member
    I can see how Apple's in a severe slump. The new stuff they might otherwise have released in the first part of the year they released early--late last year--and now they're floundering with only 70% of phone profits, the top 2 best-selling smartphones, the best-selling tablets both large and small, massive mindshare and developer support, a healthy PC business other companies would kill to have, and the only music and media store with widespread international reach.

    Apple released groundbreaking products (slammed by the media each and every time) every few years under Steve Jobs. But now that kind of "big shocking ad-baiting media bombshell" HAS to happen every few months... for some reason. And Apple can't have a mix of small and large successes, they have to have ONLY large ones. Other companies can be ground breaking with nothing but a bullet-list, a marketing department and a photocopier, but Apple can't survive without releasing, at the very least, a time machine. Yesterday.

    Lots of insanity. I'm not sure I agree that the insanity will pass... but I'm sure Apple won't! Not in the foreseeable years ahead.
  • Reply 11 of 74

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by nagromme View Post



    I can see how Apple's in a severe slump. The new stuff they might otherwise have released in the first part of the year they released early--late last year--and now they're floundering with only 70% of phone profits, the top 2 best-selling smartphones, the best-selling tablets both large and small, massive mindshare and developer support, a healthy PC business other companies would kill to have, and the only music and media store with widespread international reach.



    Apple released groundbreaking products (slammed by the media each and every time) every few years under Steve Jobs. But now that kind of "big shocking ad-baiting media bombshell" HAS to happen every few months... for some reason. And Apple can't have a mix of small and large successes, they have to have ONLY large ones. Other companies can be ground breaking with nothing but a bullet-list, a marketing department and a photocopier, but Apple can't survive without releasing, at the very least, a time machine. Yesterday.



    Lots of insanity. I'm not sure I agree that the insanity will pass... but I'm sure Apple won't! Not in the foreseeable years ahead.


    Well, if they had a time machine for real, they actually could release it yesterday.

  • Reply 12 of 74
    gtrgtr Posts: 3,231member
    "Apple is Doomed".

    (I abbreviated that for you)
  • Reply 13 of 74
    pkn2ndpkn2nd Posts: 2member
    I agree Apple is doomed. The iWatch IS the low cost iPhone. The iPanel TV is a 4K retinaTV with app store subscription model. (If it ever happens.) Oh, and then they're going to release a special edition low cost iPhone that looks like a Startrek communicator, with siri too! I just hope they don't try to make the robot from Rocky 3. With a little creativity anyone can predict the future of Apple Products. Apple, I'll be waiting for that job offer in the creativity dept.
  • Reply 14 of 74
    enzosenzos Posts: 344member


    How on earth would a watch replace a touch-phone? [doh!]


     


    The thing about a watch is that it's always 'at hand' (!); the thing about a phone is that it's always in your trouser pocket, which isn't a good arrangement if you're driving etc. So the watch becomes a device for accessing the iPhone, a telemeter, a channel-changer for the telly and/or iTunes, a reminder / time piece, a GPS compass for walking etc. Make it compellingly simple and easy-to-use and they will sell more iPhones, iPads, iPods, etc.., not less.  

  • Reply 15 of 74
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


    So three people that know nothing whatsoever about a company's internal workings or future products get to talk about them, publicly, and have their opinions (again, based on zero actual information) taken as fact.


     


    Oh, and they don't get sued or go to prison or even fined for this. 


     


    Great.



    Well Apple doesn't send anyone to these kinds of events so they get other people to talk about Apple instead.

  • Reply 16 of 74
    pkn2ndpkn2nd Posts: 2member
    enzos wrote: »
    How on earth would a watch replace a touch-phone? [doh!]

    The thing about a watch is that it's always 'at hand' (!); the thing about a phone is that it's always in your trouser pocket, which isn't a good arrangement if you're driving etc. So the watch becomes a device for accessing the iPhone, a telemeter, a channel-changer for the telly and/or iTunes, a reminder / time piece, a GPS compass for walking etc. Make it compellingly simple and easy-to-use and they will sell more iPhones, iPads, iPods, etc.., not less.  

    Great! Now Apple is going call you instead of me. What was thinking I thinking??
  • Reply 17 of 74
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by isaidso View Post



    "The Piper Jaffray analyst said that talks with persons close to Apple lead him to believe that the company is building a television"



    Yeah, they are building a television.

    What they're NOT building is a television screen. Nobody wants, or needs a "screen" (I have 7 of them from 13" to 50".


    Hmm...you work at Apple and know their product plans?  

  • Reply 18 of 74
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,399member


    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

    Well Apple doesn't send anyone to these kinds of events so they get other people to talk about Apple instead.


     


    Do they? These guys are sanctioned by the most secretive company in the industry to talk about future products?

  • Reply 19 of 74
    drblankdrblank Posts: 3,383member
    When they say a low cost model, what price range are they referring to? And how would that be smart for Apple?

    Apple typically does not go after the low priced products market place. For instance, Apple has never sold a $500 laptop. I don't think they are interested in that market. The least expensive desktop is $600 for a Mac Mini, but that's about as inexpensive as they've reached.

    Apple has still not sold their products through as many markets as Android phones. Apple doesn't sell in as many countries or as many carriers. They can only make so many phones per day and if they are maxed out in terms of how many phones they can make in a day, they need to have more assembly plants and they have to be able to get enough components to make them.

    Now, what does Apple really need to do in order to not only increase Gross and Net Revenue and keep consistent profit margins? They need to make more of the higher end products. Well, First, they need to make a larger iPhone to attract those that are buying the 4.5inch and larger screen sized phones. They would probably increase the number of units because they might sell 30 or so Million of those a year in addition to what they are currently selling.

    In addition, if they opened up China Mobile, that would basically almost double their sales demand. But do they have enough people and can they get enough components to make enough product to meet demand?

    Look at companies such as Mercedes Benz. Are there any "low cost" Mercedes Benz that compete against the Ford Focus/Fiesta or Honda Civic models? NOPE. Their cheapest models are A class and B Class and they might start in the mid-20K price range. Hardly cars that sell for the $15K to $19K price range. Yeah, Mercedes Benz owns the Smart cars, but those are selling to those that want those micro small cars, but those things start at $13K and actually get up to $20K once you add options. But those aren't marketed under the Mercedes Benz name.

    I think the cheapest phone Apple would make would be something that's maybe $350 for an unlocked phone, but I don't think Apple is going to go after the $99 for an unlocked phone. I don't know how those companies can make any money from a phone that retails for $99 for an unlocked model. Not unless they get a percentage of the cell service, which i highly doubt they are.

    If you look at year to year sales, Apple is already still in growth mode. All I see Apple really needing to do is upgrade their Top of Line models and bring out at least 3 different screen sizes. and then drop the prices when they get replaced with the next model year product.
  • Reply 20 of 74
    peter236peter236 Posts: 254member


    Apple is probably studying how to copy the Samsung new phone. They better release a bigger screen phone and a more affordable, otherwise companies like Huawei, Lenovo and ZTE will take market share away as they did in 2012 in a big way.

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