Apple is making a lot of money and released a ton of improved products between March and October 2012. But their execution isn't exactly sterling, and they haven't created big wave in a long time. I'm not a "sky is falling" type by any means - I realize that this is part of their normal product cycle (heck, 6 years between iPod and iPhone).
If we're honest, let's take a look at some less-than-perfect Apple news over the past year:
-new Retail chief Josh Browett screwed up royally. He got sacked, and no one has replaced him
-iPad Minis have a great design but feature mostly iPad 2 specs
-iPhone 5 brings LTE (finally) and a slightly bigger screen, but leaves a big hole in the market for those who want a big-screen, tinkerer types, and developing markets
-iOS 6 is a more mature platform than Android, but is getting very stale in the UI department. Still stuck in an "iPod syncing" frame of reference; content it still too siloed.
-OS X is still solid, but Mountain Lion was a fairly small upgrade. The last big feature upgrade was Leopard (2007), with Snow Leopard (2009) being the epitome of dependability and leanness. Since then it's been adding neat iOS-type features and getting slightly less reliable.
-Apple used to easily trounce competitors in UI. Now they have made "skeuomorphism" a household word.
-iCloud is great for contacts and calendars, but document sharing is extremely limited; general file storage is non-existent
-production of iMacs didn't really catch up to demand til February 2013
-iWork is still on version '09. Siri is still in "beta", whatever that means.
-Maps was pushed out before it was polished to Apple standards. Realistically should have been an optional download for iOS 6 and replaced Google Maps in iOS 7.
Overall, I feel like Apple needs to pull back from its relentless "velvet handcuffs" approach. I think that if Apple can release some NEW products this year, that will certainly help. iOS needs some fresh blood, stat. Again, Apple is not doomed - but we are in a relative lull in product releases, especially when it comes to software & services. I have lots of hope since OS X is due for an upgrade, iOS can't possibly have another iOS 6-type release, and Jony Ive is taking a new look at interfaces.
I agree with most of this. Apple will be unstoppable if they can improve all of these this year, except for the bold part that I disagree whole-heartedly. Skeuomorphism is great. The problem is not with the look but how it functions. Make it function better. Don't change the look.
There's an incredible expectation on Apple to invent new products every 6 months - and then complain because they invent too many new products.
[B]It's true, Apple's track record is phenomenal[/B], there were no [B]real[/B] touch-screen phones, no tablets, no app stores, no online music stores of any consequence, until Apple invented them. And, of course, you can go back further to the personal computer, GUI operating systems etc. etc. Phenomenal. And then what we see is all of the "me too's" simply creating variations of Apple's products. There's little expectation on Samsung to come up with something [B]new[/B] (and even less for Microsoft), these other companies are [B]not expected[/B] to innovate, and yet somehow people expect Apple to keep inventing a new thingamajig that no one has thought of before. It just doesn't happen, at least not that often. For Apple, it's been 4 or 5 unique things that have truly changed the world, for most other companies it [B]never[/B] happens, they contend themselves with a "copy or die" strategy that brings in quick dollars, until they can copy the next thing.
There is an incredible spirit of innovation at Apple, and we [B]will[/B] see new inventions and amazing products, but to expect this on a 6 month basis is ridiculous. There's very little praise given for refining, improving, making something great even greater, but sometimes little steps are needed before giant leaps can be taken. The negativity shown toward Apple recently is certainly unwarranted, and definitely hypocritical, in the light of the low expectations afforded to other tech companies.
The fundamental problem here is that people - you, me, writers, analysts, everyone - got used to Apple doing something nobody expected, didn't know they wanted (and now can't live without). This created a schism in "innovation". There's now Apple style innovation, which gets everyone on the edge of their seat, and there's normal (let's call it Samsung style for fun) innovation. So we expect Apple to give us something amazing that we can't imagine. Like children on Christmas morning wondering what's under the tree for them, certainly something that will make their head explode from excitement. And we know the feeling of disappointment when it doesn't come (and still hope there's a Red Rider BB gun that they didn't see in the corner). But the problem is the inflation of that "something" that grows and grows so big that nobody, not even Apple, can fulfill the expectation. It's really a matter of market maturity, consumer maturity. This market still has to grow up, and realize that you don't always get what you want (or what you didn't know you wanted) on Christmas morning.
Meanwhile the Samsungs of the world never set expectations very high, never gave us anything other than a next gen processor. So when they make a bigger screen, those same people disappointed with Apple channel their excitement into that, or a stylus for crying out loud.
Never underestimate the similarities between childhood and market analysis. It's all there.
Samsung also sold a record number of phones, as did Huawei, Lenovo and ZTE etc. Apple's market share is shinking, so is the IOS ecosystem. [/quote] ] No one but Samsung knows how many they sold and they aren't telling. The estimates leaked about numbers shipped since 2010 are much lower than what they reported as sold in the trial with Apple. The usage numbers don't add up either of Android either. How can they ship so many more phones than Apple in the US, but when the major carriers report their numbers, Apple controls their sales? the real question is why no one points this out in the media.
@tallest skill: the only imporant idea here is "do they benefit from drumming up these opinions". If not, they're like you. You publicly make your (sometimes exact, sometimes retarded) opinions. I'm not calling for you to be imprisonned even though you fail to see the light of the Android way
The host shouldn't have ambushed one of his guests with that wager at the end, that was quite inappropriate I thought. If they were having a conversation between mates sure, but not on a stage in front of an audience.
Only a sucker would believe the sh** those two clowns were saying. How can you say Apple is in a rut when they posted the best quarter in their history? The stock price dropped while Apple was making billions. GTFO! No debt and bling for days in their overseas bank account. Munster is trolling for the sap investors. Wall Street speculated on Apple and they lost. Not Apple.
If what you claim is true you can post some figures. Show me yours and I'll show you mine but I guarantee that my iPhone numbers far exceed the Galaxy S III numbers which are the highest shipping high-end Android-based device on the market today.
It's always the same samdung sold more s3 phones. But how do they know if no figures are released, just guesses.
I cannot fathom how they sit at a keyboard and write these blatant lies. What's in it for them.
I guess it's mental jack-off of some sorts.
It's like they live in Bizzaro world where what is wrong is right and what is right is wrong. Sheesh.
There's an incredible expectation on Apple to invent new products every 6 months - and then complain because they invent too many new products.
It's true, Apple's track record is phenomenal, there were no real touch-screen phones, no tablets, no app stores, no online music stores of any consequence, until Apple invented them. And, of course, you can go back further to the personal computer, GUI operating systems etc. etc. Phenomenal. And then what we see is all of the "me too's" simply creating variations of Apple's products. There's little expectation on Samsung to come up with something new (and even less for Microsoft), these other companies are not expected to innovate, and yet somehow people expect Apple to keep inventing a new thingamajig that no one has thought of before. It just doesn't happen, at least not that often. For Apple, it's been 4 or 5 unique things that have truly changed the world, for most other companies it never happens, they contend themselves with a "copy or die" strategy that brings in quick dollars, until they can copy the next thing.
There is an incredible spirit of innovation at Apple, and we will see new inventions and amazing products, but to expect this on a 6 month basis is ridiculous. There's very little praise given for refining, improving, making something great even greater, but sometimes little steps are needed before giant leaps can be taken. The negativity shown toward Apple recently is certainly unwarranted, and definitely hypocritical, in the light of the low expectations afforded to other tech companies.
You're either young and don't know any better or grossly misinformed but the fact is Apple DID NOT invent all those things. What they did do was take existing technology and services and combine them in ways no one had thought of before offering a user experience exponentially better than it's predecessors.
I believe in Apple, they have came out with some of the most amazing devices. Yes, they have stumbled a bit, Maps and some others, but I have faith and are eagerly awaiting their next amazing device. The only tech company that innovates and believes in their customers. Lots of speculations but I know they won't disappoint.
Samsung also sold a record number of phones, as did Huawei, Lenovo and ZTE etc. Apple's market share is shinking, so is the IOS ecosystem.
That might be troublesome if the market stayed the same size, but the market is growing at a fast pace. All they have is a slightly smaller piece of a much bigger pie.
Don't be fooled by the many theories on why Apple shares fell from $700 to $425. It has nothing to do with Samsung eating Apple's lunch. It has nothing to do with a lack of innovation. It has nothing to do with losing Steve Jobs as their visionary.
It has everything to do with a small group of market makers who have an extremely large influence on the stock market. The decisions of these few influential financial institutions can make or break a company and it can make an individual investor rich or broke. Check out this TED talk so you understand what's really going on:
I believe in Apple, they have came out with some of the most amazing devices.
Yes, they have stumbled a bit, Maps and some others, but I have faith and are eagerly awaiting their next amazing device. The only tech company that innovates and believes in their customers.
Lots of speculations but I know they won't disappoint.
Yes but what? What piece of CE is there that Apple can come and redefine? Apple has spoiled us since the iPod, and have changed the game several times but that can only happen so many times eventually one has to become just another player in the game they changed, and there's absolutely nothing wrong with that because they'll still outplay all challengers.
Twitters, blogs, media pundits, analysts and evangelists. People who generate noise for a living. They have to have something to talk about. Even if it is out of their arses.
You're either young and don't know any better or grossly misinformed but the fact is Apple DID NOT invent all those things. What they did do was take existing technology and services and combine them in ways no one had thought of before offering a user experience exponentially better than it's predecessors.
He did say "of any consequence".
Just because the parts exist, doesn't mean that putting them together in new and interesting ways isn't in the spirit of invention.
I'm not sure it's all that deep. Stock prices have little to do with current value, and much more to do with anticipated growth. So the question is not whether Apple is currently profitable, or even it it's likely to remain profitable going forward (it likely will).
Instead the question is simply whether Apple can continue to have the same rate of growth going forward that it's had in recent years. Yes, there will be growth, but with the smartphone market as a whole moving toward saturation (not there of course, just moving toward it), and with the competition heating up, it doesn't seem all that unreasonable that Apple's growth rates, while remaining quite positive for years to come, may not be at the same steep slope we've seen in recent years.
That's so simplistic that it's useless.
Stock prices are not determined on the basis of anticipated growth. They are determined based on an investor's estimate of net present value of future results. Anticipated growth is only one element of those results.
By that standard (pretty much by ANY standard), Apple is undervalued.
Look at the market average. The market is trading about around 16 times earnings and the average company has about a 3-5% growth rate. Since that's the average of thousands of companies, the market has determined that a P/E of 16 is a fair level for a company growing at a few percent.
Apple's growth rate is greater than that and its multiple is around 7. So even if Apple's growth were to slow down to the market average, they're still less than half of what the market has determined is a fair multiple.
Stock prices are not determined on the basis of anticipated growth. They are determined based on an investor's estimate of net present value of future results. Anticipated growth is only one element of those results.
By that standard (pretty much by ANY standard), Apple is undervalued.
Look at the market average. The market is trading about around 16 times earnings and the average company has about a 3-5% growth rate. Since that's the average of thousands of companies, the market has determined that a P/E of 16 is a fair level for a company growing at a few percent.
Apple's growth rate is greater than that and its multiple is around 7. So even if Apple's growth were to slow down to the market average, they're still less than half of what the market has determined is a fair multiple.
How would you explain Amazon? Or the Facebook IPO? Or even Facebook today for that matter.
Comments
Quote:
Originally Posted by acslater017
Apple is making a lot of money and released a ton of improved products between March and October 2012. But their execution isn't exactly sterling, and they haven't created big wave in a long time. I'm not a "sky is falling" type by any means - I realize that this is part of their normal product cycle (heck, 6 years between iPod and iPhone).
If we're honest, let's take a look at some less-than-perfect Apple news over the past year:
-new Retail chief Josh Browett screwed up royally. He got sacked, and no one has replaced him
-iPad Minis have a great design but feature mostly iPad 2 specs
-iPhone 5 brings LTE (finally) and a slightly bigger screen, but leaves a big hole in the market for those who want a big-screen, tinkerer types, and developing markets
-iOS 6 is a more mature platform than Android, but is getting very stale in the UI department. Still stuck in an "iPod syncing" frame of reference; content it still too siloed.
-OS X is still solid, but Mountain Lion was a fairly small upgrade. The last big feature upgrade was Leopard (2007), with Snow Leopard (2009) being the epitome of dependability and leanness. Since then it's been adding neat iOS-type features and getting slightly less reliable.
-Apple used to easily trounce competitors in UI. Now they have made "skeuomorphism" a household word.
-iCloud is great for contacts and calendars, but document sharing is extremely limited; general file storage is non-existent
-production of iMacs didn't really catch up to demand til February 2013
-iWork is still on version '09. Siri is still in "beta", whatever that means.
-Maps was pushed out before it was polished to Apple standards. Realistically should have been an optional download for iOS 6 and replaced Google Maps in iOS 7.
Overall, I feel like Apple needs to pull back from its relentless "velvet handcuffs" approach. I think that if Apple can release some NEW products this year, that will certainly help. iOS needs some fresh blood, stat. Again, Apple is not doomed - but we are in a relative lull in product releases, especially when it comes to software & services. I have lots of hope since OS X is due for an upgrade, iOS can't possibly have another iOS 6-type release, and Jony Ive is taking a new look at interfaces.
I agree with most of this. Apple will be unstoppable if they can improve all of these this year, except for the bold part that I disagree whole-heartedly. Skeuomorphism is great. The problem is not with the look but how it functions. Make it function better. Don't change the look.
[B]It's true, Apple's track record is phenomenal[/B], there were no [B]real[/B] touch-screen phones, no tablets, no app stores, no online music stores of any consequence, until Apple invented them. And, of course, you can go back further to the personal computer, GUI operating systems etc. etc. Phenomenal. And then what we see is all of the "me too's" simply creating variations of Apple's products. There's little expectation on Samsung to come up with something [B]new[/B] (and even less for Microsoft), these other companies are [B]not expected[/B] to innovate, and yet somehow people expect Apple to keep inventing a new thingamajig that no one has thought of before. It just doesn't happen, at least not that often. For Apple, it's been 4 or 5 unique things that have truly changed the world, for most other companies it [B]never[/B] happens, they contend themselves with a "copy or die" strategy that brings in quick dollars, until they can copy the next thing.
There is an incredible spirit of innovation at Apple, and we [B]will[/B] see new inventions and amazing products, but to expect this on a 6 month basis is ridiculous. There's very little praise given for refining, improving, making something great even greater, but sometimes little steps are needed before giant leaps can be taken. The negativity shown toward Apple recently is certainly unwarranted, and definitely hypocritical, in the light of the low expectations afforded to other tech companies.
Meanwhile the Samsungs of the world never set expectations very high, never gave us anything other than a next gen processor. So when they make a bigger screen, those same people disappointed with Apple channel their excitement into that, or a stylus for crying out loud.
Never underestimate the similarities between childhood and market analysis. It's all there.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil
Do they? These guys are sanctioned by the most secretive company in the industry to talk about future products?
No I'm referring to the organizers, not Apple.
Samsung also sold a record number of phones, as did Huawei, Lenovo and ZTE etc. Apple's market share is shinking, so is the IOS ecosystem.
[/quote]
]
No one but Samsung knows how many they sold and they aren't telling. The estimates leaked about numbers shipped since 2010 are much lower than what they reported as sold in the trial with Apple. The usage numbers don't add up either of Android either. How can they ship so many more phones than Apple in the US, but when the major carriers report their numbers, Apple controls their sales? the real question is why no one points this out in the media.
The host shouldn't have ambushed one of his guests with that wager at the end, that was quite inappropriate I thought. If they were having a conversation between mates sure, but not on a stage in front of an audience.
The stock price dropped while Apple was making billions. GTFO! No debt and bling for days in their overseas bank account.
Munster is trolling for the sap investors. Wall Street speculated on Apple and they lost. Not Apple.
I cannot fathom how they sit at a keyboard and write these blatant lies. What's in it for them.
I guess it's mental jack-off of some sorts.
It's like they live in Bizzaro world where what is wrong is right and what is right is wrong. Sheesh.
You're either young and don't know any better or grossly misinformed but the fact is Apple DID NOT invent all those things. What they did do was take existing technology and services and combine them in ways no one had thought of before offering a user experience exponentially better than it's predecessors.
Yes, they have stumbled a bit, Maps and some others, but I have faith and are eagerly awaiting their next amazing device. The only tech company that innovates and believes in their customers.
Lots of speculations but I know they won't disappoint.
That might be troublesome if the market stayed the same size, but the market is growing at a fast pace. All they have is a slightly smaller piece of a much bigger pie.
Hey People,
Don't be fooled by the many theories on why Apple shares fell from $700 to $425. It has nothing to do with Samsung eating Apple's lunch. It has nothing to do with a lack of innovation. It has nothing to do with losing Steve Jobs as their visionary.
It has everything to do with a small group of market makers who have an extremely large influence on the stock market. The decisions of these few influential financial institutions can make or break a company and it can make an individual investor rich or broke. Check out this TED talk so you understand what's really going on:
http://www.ted.com/talks/james_b_glattfelder_who_controls_the_world.html
Yes but what? What piece of CE is there that Apple can come and redefine? Apple has spoiled us since the iPod, and have changed the game several times but that can only happen so many times eventually one has to become just another player in the game they changed, and there's absolutely nothing wrong with that because they'll still outplay all challengers.
Twitters, blogs, media pundits, analysts and evangelists. People who generate noise for a living. They have to have something to talk about. Even if it is out of their arses.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69
You're either young and don't know any better or grossly misinformed but the fact is Apple DID NOT invent all those things. What they did do was take existing technology and services and combine them in ways no one had thought of before offering a user experience exponentially better than it's predecessors.
He did say "of any consequence".
Just because the parts exist, doesn't mean that putting them together in new and interesting ways isn't in the spirit of invention.
deleted
That's so simplistic that it's useless.
Stock prices are not determined on the basis of anticipated growth. They are determined based on an investor's estimate of net present value of future results. Anticipated growth is only one element of those results.
By that standard (pretty much by ANY standard), Apple is undervalued.
Look at the market average. The market is trading about around 16 times earnings and the average company has about a 3-5% growth rate. Since that's the average of thousands of companies, the market has determined that a P/E of 16 is a fair level for a company growing at a few percent.
Apple's growth rate is greater than that and its multiple is around 7. So even if Apple's growth were to slow down to the market average, they're still less than half of what the market has determined is a fair multiple.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta
That's so simplistic that it's useless.
Stock prices are not determined on the basis of anticipated growth. They are determined based on an investor's estimate of net present value of future results. Anticipated growth is only one element of those results.
By that standard (pretty much by ANY standard), Apple is undervalued.
Look at the market average. The market is trading about around 16 times earnings and the average company has about a 3-5% growth rate. Since that's the average of thousands of companies, the market has determined that a P/E of 16 is a fair level for a company growing at a few percent.
Apple's growth rate is greater than that and its multiple is around 7. So even if Apple's growth were to slow down to the market average, they're still less than half of what the market has determined is a fair multiple.
How would you explain Amazon? Or the Facebook IPO? Or even Facebook today for that matter.
deleted