Irrational exuberance drove the stock up and it is driving it down. Apple is the most emotional stock in the world. Predicting what a "normal" stock will do is mostly guesswork, predicting how Apple will perform in pretty much impossible. Buy low sell high is the best you can do with Apple.
Irrational exuberance drove the stock all the way up to a 14 P/E multiple, which is lower than the average for the S&P 500.
I wish Apple would get back on top of the Prosumer Market.. Things had begun to slide even before Cook took the reign. We need new MacPro's... Even though the userbase is small compared to the consumer sector there is still a market and a lot of businesses are heavily invested in OSX. I feel that Apple has lost its mojo in this particular area.
Do you think we are starting to see a saturation in the iDevice category? What is the next big thing? Can Cook really steer the company in a new direction? There is no question the iPhone/iPad was a revolution but can they really sustain the company on asking the faithful to upgrade every two years?
The iWatch, iTV, iCar all seem like lackluster product concepts if they even exist.
It really is about the share price at this point and that is not going to turn around until they announce some killer new product.
I don't understand why everyone thinks Apple is due for a new product category. For 10 years all Apple produced was computers and iPods. The iPhone and iPad came out relatively close in time, but I think that is the exception, not the rule.
Is there anything wrong with Apple Computer selling computers? If I were Tim Cook, I'd be focused on getting out the next iPad. It needs to be lighter and faster. They need to do more to help developers make good software. They need to do more to integrate iPad and iOS with home, car, and personal electronics. I'm sure Tim is busy doing these things and doesn't have time to listen to whiners talk about releasing products that don't need to be released.
Here's what I think Tim should work on:
Retina iPad mini (no weight gain or loss of battery, this will be tough to do but very rewarding for market share)
Reduce the weight and size of the iPad (after the iPad mini, iPad feels like a brick)
Retina display for macbook air (no weight gain, again difficult to do but worth it)
Style change for macbook air (it doesn't need to be drastic, maybe color schemes, or trim)
Continued rapid improvement in Apple maps. Make it easier for individuals to contribute to the map. Partner with social networks to get map data.
Release Apple Maps for Mac OSX, Windows, and Android. This will allow developers to develop for one map (maybe join up with Yahoo to provide Maps on desktop).
Better iCloud management. iCloud is a great idea, but managing it needs to be easier to manage for people with multiple devices and family members.
Great companies focus on the important things. I assure you Apple will make a lot more money by making their current devices and software better than chasing after a category of device for which no market exists just because Wall Street and bloggers like you say they need to do it. The iPad is not even close to being a mature platform. That's where the focus should be.
I wish Apple would get back on top of the Prosumer Market.. Things had begun to slide even before Cook took the reign. We need new MacPro's... Even though the userbase is small compared to the consumer sector there is still a market and a lot of businesses are heavily invested in OSX. I feel that Apple has lost its mojo in this particular area.
The fact that Apple has dropped that ball is another evidence of questionable management: obviously, the prosumer revenues are puny compared to phone revenues, but this would not matter if the Mac Pro operation was a cost center and was running semi-autonomously -- it is a good business, even if smaller than the phone franchise. Jobs ran the company autocratically (and was not well for several years), which is why he just did not have enough attention to devote to this piddling business -- the current management team has no obvious excuse, and with the ill-advised Final Cut X introduction is about to lose its (once core) pro user market entirely.
I wish Apple would get back on top of the Prosumer Market..
Haswell iMac in a few months.
We need new MacPro's...
But you said prosumer.
Originally Posted by igriv
The fact that Apple has dropped that ball is another evidence of questionable management: obviously, the prosumer revenues are puny compared to phone revenues, but this would not matter if the Mac Pro operation was a cost center and was running semi-autonomously -- it is a good business, even if smaller than the phone franchise. Jobs ran the company autocratically (and was not well for several years), which is why he just did not have enough attention to devote to this piddling business -- the current management team has no obvious excuse, and with the ill-advised Final Cut X introduction is about to lose its (once core) pro user market entirely.
And you jump right on that because it's critical of Apple, disregarding the logic used. How unexpected¡
And you jump right on that because it's critical of Apple, disregarding the logic used. How unexpected¡
And you jump on my post because it is written by me, even if it is not particularly critical. How moderating of you. Isn't there some remedial moderating school around?
I wish Apple would get back on top of the Prosumer Market.. Things had begun to slide even before Cook took the reign. We need new MacPro's... Even though the userbase is small compared to the consumer sector there is still a market and a lot of businesses are heavily invested in OSX. I feel that Apple has lost its mojo in this particular area.
I think that you are right that Apple should focus on its current markets, not imaginary products. However, I think you have the wrong device. The focus should be on iPad. iPad is at a very fragile juncture. Apple needs to double down hard on iPad and keep its market share. The iPhone market is maturing. Growth is going to slow in iPhones and/or margins are going to compress. The iPad is slower growing and a little less profitable, but I think it has 10 years of growth ahead of it. If Apple continues to deliver on the iPad, we'll see $700 again.
By the way, I'm not sure whether Apple will take slower growth or reduced margins on the iPhone. Hard to say. Neither is attractive, but one or the other is inevitable.
If any about Tim's chase is true, I don't think it would be about Tim's qualities and his performance.
I'd (lucky) guess it is about some people in shadow who work in their and their only interests. Jobs was so bigger than life that no one dared to try touch him after his "resurrection" (and consequently, Apple's resurrection). While Tim tries to follow Jobs' legacy, he is not Jobs, and it just might be some greedy fingers decided this one can be removed and a puppet CEO enforced in his place.
Some power establishments just don't like capable, intelligent CEO to mess with their agendas. Hurd was removed from HP for really not so major issue and HP just went downspiraling with Leo Apotheker, man with horrible CV (and equally horrible results) that no reasonable company would want for CEO.
This is a reason I tolerate Balmer in MS. Muppet he might be, but he is Microsoft's home-breed muppet. It's a family thing.
Daniel, thank you for keeping it real, I guess we'll see what they announce tomorrow. But people should be going to jail for all the stuff that has been thrown out there. Jail I tell you.
And yes Enderle, to tribalogicals' point, should not be paid to do anything. Ever....
I am not sure about the value of a thumbs-down feature.
In fact, since it cuts both ways, it could backfire. Given how many trolls (and likely lurker-trolls) there are here on AI, think about how easy it would be to do 'drive-by' thumbs-downs of pro-Apple comments and commenters......!
If one dislikes a post, one can always provide a response countering the post.
I'd (lucky) guess it is about some people in shadow who work in their and their only interests. Jobs was so bigger than life that no one dared to try touch him after his "resurrection" (and consequently, Apple's resurrection). While Tim tries to follow Jobs' legacy, he is not Jobs, and it just might be some greedy fingers decided this one can be removed and a puppet CEO enforced in his place.
I think you must have forgotten just how much Steve was bashed since 2001 to his death. For many people out there he could do no right — and he went on ignoring them because he knew what he was doing even if they didn't. It is only since his death that he has been canonised, but before that he took a lot of flack.
I also don't think Tim Cook is doing anything wrong, the quarterly results speak for themselves. There are just people trying to make money by causing stock price fluctuations.
Forget the SEC. If I were a stockholder, I would be looking at identifying a the rumour mongers who have a big stake in the outcome and launching a class action suit against them. The SEC can follow and put them in jail because by then, they’d have no money to pay for a top-notch lawyer.
I bet Apple’s latest quarterly numbers will blow away the competition. Well, they would, if the competition actually reported their numbers. When I last checked, Microsoft was remarkably coy about reporting sales of the Surface line, which you can bet they would be trumpeting from the rooftops if it were not embarrassing, and Samsung never gives a breakdown of sales.
No point speculating further because we should know soon.
At what point does the SEC get involved and start investigating these comments & rumors, especially ones that have no basis in reality and have drastic effects on the stock value?
There's a simple reason for all this: Apple has a lot of cash. Wall Street wants that cash and will stop at nothing to get it.
Or is the reason maybe: Apple has a lot of cash. Wall Street wants that cash spent by Apple on something that will continue Apple's growth trajectory at 2007-2011 levels. Instead, Apple is saving it.
Either Apple is secretly working on a big new thing and saving the cash because they'll need it in the near future, or they really don't know how to spend it. Otherwise, they would've been buying back shares right now (especially if they believe the stock is undervalued themselves).
Comments
Quote:
Originally Posted by WelshDog
Irrational exuberance drove the stock up and it is driving it down. Apple is the most emotional stock in the world. Predicting what a "normal" stock will do is mostly guesswork, predicting how Apple will perform in pretty much impossible. Buy low sell high is the best you can do with Apple.
Irrational exuberance drove the stock all the way up to a 14 P/E multiple, which is lower than the average for the S&P 500.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone
Do you think we are starting to see a saturation in the iDevice category? What is the next big thing? Can Cook really steer the company in a new direction? There is no question the iPhone/iPad was a revolution but can they really sustain the company on asking the faithful to upgrade every two years?
The iWatch, iTV, iCar all seem like lackluster product concepts if they even exist.
It really is about the share price at this point and that is not going to turn around until they announce some killer new product.
I don't understand why everyone thinks Apple is due for a new product category. For 10 years all Apple produced was computers and iPods. The iPhone and iPad came out relatively close in time, but I think that is the exception, not the rule.
Is there anything wrong with Apple Computer selling computers? If I were Tim Cook, I'd be focused on getting out the next iPad. It needs to be lighter and faster. They need to do more to help developers make good software. They need to do more to integrate iPad and iOS with home, car, and personal electronics. I'm sure Tim is busy doing these things and doesn't have time to listen to whiners talk about releasing products that don't need to be released.
Here's what I think Tim should work on:
Retina iPad mini (no weight gain or loss of battery, this will be tough to do but very rewarding for market share)
Reduce the weight and size of the iPad (after the iPad mini, iPad feels like a brick)
Retina display for macbook air (no weight gain, again difficult to do but worth it)
Style change for macbook air (it doesn't need to be drastic, maybe color schemes, or trim)
Continued rapid improvement in Apple maps. Make it easier for individuals to contribute to the map. Partner with social networks to get map data.
Release Apple Maps for Mac OSX, Windows, and Android. This will allow developers to develop for one map (maybe join up with Yahoo to provide Maps on desktop).
Better iCloud management. iCloud is a great idea, but managing it needs to be easier to manage for people with multiple devices and family members.
Great companies focus on the important things. I assure you Apple will make a lot more money by making their current devices and software better than chasing after a category of device for which no market exists just because Wall Street and bloggers like you say they need to do it. The iPad is not even close to being a mature platform. That's where the focus should be.
Quote:
Originally Posted by simtub
I wish Apple would get back on top of the Prosumer Market.. Things had begun to slide even before Cook took the reign. We need new MacPro's... Even though the userbase is small compared to the consumer sector there is still a market and a lot of businesses are heavily invested in OSX. I feel that Apple has lost its mojo in this particular area.
The fact that Apple has dropped that ball is another evidence of questionable management: obviously, the prosumer revenues are puny compared to phone revenues, but this would not matter if the Mac Pro operation was a cost center and was running semi-autonomously -- it is a good business, even if smaller than the phone franchise. Jobs ran the company autocratically (and was not well for several years), which is why he just did not have enough attention to devote to this piddling business -- the current management team has no obvious excuse, and with the ill-advised Final Cut X introduction is about to lose its (once core) pro user market entirely.
Originally Posted by simtub
I wish Apple would get back on top of the Prosumer Market..
Haswell iMac in a few months.
We need new MacPro's...
But you said prosumer.
Originally Posted by igriv
The fact that Apple has dropped that ball is another evidence of questionable management: obviously, the prosumer revenues are puny compared to phone revenues, but this would not matter if the Mac Pro operation was a cost center and was running semi-autonomously -- it is a good business, even if smaller than the phone franchise. Jobs ran the company autocratically (and was not well for several years), which is why he just did not have enough attention to devote to this piddling business -- the current management team has no obvious excuse, and with the ill-advised Final Cut X introduction is about to lose its (once core) pro user market entirely.
And you jump right on that because it's critical of Apple, disregarding the logic used. How unexpected¡
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil
Haswell iMac in a few months.
But you said prosumer.
And you jump right on that because it's critical of Apple, disregarding the logic used. How unexpected¡
And you jump on my post because it is written by me, even if it is not particularly critical. How moderating of you. Isn't there some remedial moderating school around?
Quote:
Originally Posted by simtub
I wish Apple would get back on top of the Prosumer Market.. Things had begun to slide even before Cook took the reign. We need new MacPro's... Even though the userbase is small compared to the consumer sector there is still a market and a lot of businesses are heavily invested in OSX. I feel that Apple has lost its mojo in this particular area.
I think that you are right that Apple should focus on its current markets, not imaginary products. However, I think you have the wrong device. The focus should be on iPad. iPad is at a very fragile juncture. Apple needs to double down hard on iPad and keep its market share. The iPhone market is maturing. Growth is going to slow in iPhones and/or margins are going to compress. The iPad is slower growing and a little less profitable, but I think it has 10 years of growth ahead of it. If Apple continues to deliver on the iPad, we'll see $700 again.
By the way, I'm not sure whether Apple will take slower growth or reduced margins on the iPhone. Hard to say. Neither is attractive, but one or the other is inevitable.
Originally Posted by igriv
And you jump on my post because…
Well, you didn't bring up the Mac Pro/prosumer contradiction and did bring up the Final Cut Pro X "debacle" falsehood.
Never mind the "dropped the ball" nonsense.
Steve Jobs had the no Bozo Rule, and he ran a pretty tight ship. It's hard to imagine that TC could have escaped scrutiny.
Analysts need to blame someone for the decline in price, they certainly aren't going to blame themselves for their incessant bashing.
I'd (lucky) guess it is about some people in shadow who work in their and their only interests. Jobs was so bigger than life that no one dared to try touch him after his "resurrection" (and consequently, Apple's resurrection). While Tim tries to follow Jobs' legacy, he is not Jobs, and it just might be some greedy fingers decided this one can be removed and a puppet CEO enforced in his place.
Some power establishments just don't like capable, intelligent CEO to mess with their agendas. Hurd was removed from HP for really not so major issue and HP just went downspiraling with Leo Apotheker, man with horrible CV (and equally horrible results) that no reasonable company would want for CEO.
This is a reason I tolerate Balmer in MS. Muppet he might be, but he is Microsoft's home-breed muppet. It's a family thing.
Wall Street shill bait. They want a CEO that conforms to their needs, so they're at full attack to discredit Cook.
Short termed, small thinking people.
And yes Enderle, to tribalogicals' point, should not be paid to do anything. Ever....
This post deserves a 'thumbs up'.
The post was...
I am not sure about the value of a thumbs-down feature.
In fact, since it cuts both ways, it could backfire. Given how many trolls (and likely lurker-trolls) there are here on AI, think about how easy it would be to do 'drive-by' thumbs-downs of pro-Apple comments and commenters......!
If one dislikes a post, one can always provide a response countering the post.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nikon133
I'd (lucky) guess it is about some people in shadow who work in their and their only interests. Jobs was so bigger than life that no one dared to try touch him after his "resurrection" (and consequently, Apple's resurrection). While Tim tries to follow Jobs' legacy, he is not Jobs, and it just might be some greedy fingers decided this one can be removed and a puppet CEO enforced in his place.
I think you must have forgotten just how much Steve was bashed since 2001 to his death. For many people out there he could do no right — and he went on ignoring them because he knew what he was doing even if they didn't. It is only since his death that he has been canonised, but before that he took a lot of flack.
I hope TC has the same thick skin.
I also don't think Tim Cook is doing anything wrong, the quarterly results speak for themselves. There are just people trying to make money by causing stock price fluctuations.
Forget the SEC. If I were a stockholder, I would be looking at identifying a the rumour mongers who have a big stake in the outcome and launching a class action suit against them. The SEC can follow and put them in jail because by then, they’d have no money to pay for a top-notch lawyer.
I bet Apple’s latest quarterly numbers will blow away the competition. Well, they would, if the competition actually reported their numbers. When I last checked, Microsoft was remarkably coy about reporting sales of the Surface line, which you can bet they would be trumpeting from the rooftops if it were not embarrassing, and Samsung never gives a breakdown of sales.
No point speculating further because we should know soon.
More on my blog.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave MacLachlan
At what point does the SEC get involved and start investigating these comments & rumors, especially ones that have no basis in reality and have drastic effects on the stock value?
Quote:
Originally Posted by poke
There's a simple reason for all this: Apple has a lot of cash. Wall Street wants that cash and will stop at nothing to get it.
Or is the reason maybe: Apple has a lot of cash. Wall Street wants that cash spent by Apple on something that will continue Apple's growth trajectory at 2007-2011 levels. Instead, Apple is saving it.
Either Apple is secretly working on a big new thing and saving the cash because they'll need it in the near future, or they really don't know how to spend it. Otherwise, they would've been buying back shares right now (especially if they believe the stock is undervalued themselves).
http://macdailynews.com/2013/04/22/apples-iwatch-imminent/