I would have no trouble at all if they did that. I would accept their numbers at face value if they brought it up in a post-earnings analyst conference call.
What you fail to understand is that going public with this kind of disclosure -- even though it is voluntary -- requires you to be as truthful as you can, for otherwise, you run a massive risk of being caught out, with all kinds of negative reputational consequences. Sensible companies simply cannot afford to lie or dissemble with such disclosure.
Doesn't Apple always use qualifiers when they report their channel inventory estimates, perhaps so as to avoid being nailed on specific claims? As a seasoned investor you know more about it than I do.
That they're embarrassed to bring it up since: (i) The numbers are not as good as everyone claims they are (remember "smooth"?); (ii) Their ASP sucks.
So their numbers used to be better and their ASP didn't suck when they reported sales prior to the middle of 2011? It could just be a coincidence I suppose that the timing happened to coincide with the beginning of Apple's lawsuits against Sammie.
Apple was able to slow down its tablet market share freefall with the ipad mini, its needs to move asap on the phone side.
Overwhelming dominance of the tablet market is not 'freefall'. The only reason percentages are dropping is because crapola tablet-shaped readers are being disingenuously called 'tablets'.
of course, when we are not happy with the numbers lets question the source...
Fact is Apple is painting itseft into a niche corner just like it did in the 80's. This year is pretty much last chance for Apple to come out with multiple iphone models that adress the entire market.
Apple was able to slow down its tablet market share freefall with the ipad mini, its needs to move asap on the phone side.
I agree. Apple had a huge lead in every aspect and did a great job exploiting it, but when the lead started shrinking they failed to adjust their strategy until they didnt have a choice. Even moving from a 3.5" screen to a 4" screen was like pulling teeth. Here we are in mid 2013 and a bigger screen and lower end phone are just conjecture. I will be curious to see what they come out with in the fall, but one has to wonder what could have been.
Speaking of sales and screen sizes, I ran across a report of the top UK phones sold last quarter:
The first thing that jumped out to me, is that over 27% of the total phones sold were iPhone models.
The next is that at least 40% of the total phones sold had 4" or larger screens (it could be.. and probably is... more, since this only lists the top ten). At least 18% were 4.3" to 4.8". That's a pretty good market chunk.
Then I decided to chart the relative popularity of only the Android phones in the top ten. Turns out the overwhelming majority of the top sold are $300 and up.
And then only the relative popularity of the five Samsung phones in the top list:
Now, this leaves out the other phones that didn't make it to the top ten list, but it's still interesting to chart the most popular individual models.
They are leaving it a bit late to release new tech but if they release something different this will change and they will be back at the top again. The problem is that there are others that are releasing really good devices with the size screens people want, big. And windows8 phones are going to be a big challenge to beat when they break the the sales wall they have been behind for a few years. Microsoft is investing too much into a phone for it to fail and it does not lag or freeze or need resets like the android devices on tech that is a year old. I can only imagine what it would be like if they release on a device with the top specs. And their app store seems to be growing strongly albeit slowly, some big names have just announced they are going to start building apps for wp8.
I hope that apple can come up with something that lets everyone breath a sigh of relief, otherwise there is a good chance that if the marketshare drops further than developers will be making apple the second choice for apps design.
First, whenever someone opens with "longtime Apple supporter here" I know they're about to disparage Apple history/strategy pretty thoroughly.
Second, when the post turns out to contain literally every familiar, negative 'talking point' -- presented in almost the exact same order! -- as I've seen rolled into a few dozen other posts on AI comment threads recently, I start to detect a pattern of premeditation. Seriously.
I watch this in the political sphere as well. RNC puts out a list of anti-Obama talking points, which then make the rounds as "opinion" on the Sunday talk show circuit, and THOSE quotes are picked up by the 'news outlets' as crazily consistent headlines (even though they're quoting different people, it all ends up being the same meme).
Back to here: the same kind of background noise, based on a consistent "list" of talking points: The competition is 'catching up', Apple is alienating customers, losing mindshare, no Mac Pro in years, the "Final Cut X fiasco", no 'touch capability' in OSX (cue WIndows comparison)… make sure you use certain adjectives and descriptives: narrow, limited, crappy, ditching Apple, limiting, unexciting...
And then the big fail finish: "Apple just hasn't been EXCITING for a long time"...
I almost expect them to cue Samsung Ad copy: SAMSUNG has the MOST EXCITING products available today!
Either you are paid to be posting here, or you have drunk the Glenn Beck-styled koolaid from the paid-PR 'news' cycle…
Whether or not Apple has lost a couple of points of global market share is almost immaterial. Their products remain hugely in demand, margins (even adjusted) still above the competition by multiples, and their product mix, although appearing "limited" to some, actually satisfies any real needs people have in computing/telephony, etc...
When the hype and gimmicks have faded, Apple still stands as the most used, the highest quality, and the most consistent across the board… I find that pretty exciting myself...
Cheers dude! Very good troll hunting ;¬)
100 % with you on this... If it’s a paid person that does this for a living, what a lame life... And if they truly believe their own garbage nonsense, seriously lame hobby, I mean to troll around enthusiasts’ sites like that without even getting paid to do it (very sad).
No doubt your analytics firm is infinitely more successful than "idiots" like Gartner, but kindly tell us: for the period covered, what do you imagine is the difference between "sales" and "shipments", and what is the source for your data?
The truth is that Samsung and all the other firms are not really selling any phone! They just "ship" the phones to the stores then take them back in the middle of the night and throw them into the ocean! Everything is a lie! There are no Android phones, just iPhones! It's just a lie, lie, lie and a big conspiracy against Apple!
…windows8 phones are going to be a big challenge to beat…
Challenge? Beat 'em with one hand; they'll break pretty easily.
…when they break the the sales wall they have been behind for a few years.
Except they're never going to do this. People hate Windows 8 desktop, they hate it on the tablet, and they hated Windows Phone 7.
Microsoft is investing too much into a phone for it to fail…
Except it will, if their "success" over the last few years is any indicator… Amount invested has nothing to do with success.
I hope that apple can come up with something that lets everyone breath a sigh of relief, otherwise there is a good chance that if the marketshare drops further than developers will be making apple the second choice for apps design.
More false concern and FUD… Don't you people have anything better to do?
Just curious. Where/how do you trade your Apple shares sitting as a (I assume) retail investor in Europe? Also, in which country do you live?
Do you think you have to live in US to trade Apple shares? Everybody in the world can trade at NYSE. You just open an account with a US broker and start trading.
What bothers me most about this kind of reporting, is that it doesn't attempt to determine the accuracy of the information, nor any relationship between the parties. First it should have been mentioned that Samsung does not disclose actual retail sales, but only products shipped. Apple only discloses sales that are completed and delivered to a purchaser. Samsung can ship as many phones as they make, but can they actually sell them? Secondly, Gartner is notorious for their inaccurate numbers. Appleinsider has reported in the past on these inaccuracies, including an article In April of 2011 where Gartner predicted that Windows phones would control about the same amount of market as Apple by 2012. Finally, there is an ongoing financial and business relationship between Samsung and Gartner. About 6 months ago Gartner put on The Gartner Symposium/ITxpo 2012 with Samsung as the Premier Sponsor. To add to this, the very researchers that deliver these figures that the press reports without question, are many times ex-Samsung employees. The research director for Gartner covering Samsung and its competitors, was Samsung's product marketing manager for mobile application processors immediately prior to working for Gartner. It is one thing for a company to continue to put out information called research that is a veiled advertisement for Samsung, but a very sad commentary on the fourth estate, the press, to blindly distribute the information without any research and verification.
...It is one thing for a company to continue to put out information called research that is a veiled advertisement for Samsung, but a very sad commentary on the fourth estate, the press, to blindly distribute the information without any research and verification.
Because for the most part, there is no "press" such as you describe anymore. The lure of free content on click-bait advertising sites has virtually wiped out news reporting and analysis. We got what we paid for, and we're stuck with it.
ps: gargle analytics tells me that you forgot to brush your teeth after lunch, again.
Computer business is not the car business. You must maintain critical mass to keep the ecosystem going on. IF Apple gets to low it will start losing its devs.
Okay, I agree it's not like the car business. So how do you start-up as a new company with a new product? If it's not possible, then perhaps it's time to change the rules. Somehow.
This reminds me of when HP said its numbers for the webOS Tablet were in line with what it expected and everyone was speculating a million or more sold initially--only to find out that the initial run was only 90,000 (although they made more for some reason and then had a fire sale).
Such examples are very short-lived, usually only one or two quarters at most before they're exposed. Samsung has continued to report revenue increases and sales milestones for a couple of years now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
Here's what I predict the response will be, to the two questions: (i) We don't report volumes shipped because Korean reporting standards do not require us to; (ii) We don't know (or are not sure of) how to estimate channel inventory.
Even American standards don't require reporting channel inventory. Heck, Apple only started mentioning it in their voice calls months after the iPhone went on sale, and only then because suddenly people were asking where millions of sold iPhones were disappearing to, since carrier activations didn't jibe with Apple's numbers. (It turned out to be partly inventory buildup, and partly unlocked phones being sent overseas.)
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnarpy
First it should have been mentioned that Samsung does not disclose actual retail sales, but only products shipped.
Samsung does not disclose products shipped, either, but they do disclose revenue from which extrapolations can be made, partly from their public milestone announcements for major products.
Quote:
Secondly, Gartner is notorious for their inaccurate numbers.
Definitely Gartner can be terrible at predictions. They seem to be much better at past numbers.
I hope that apple can come up with something that lets everyone breath a sigh of relief, otherwise there is a good chance that if the marketshare drops further than developers will be making apple the second choice for apps design.
Developers care about making money. iOS makes more money for them than Android whether it be for paid apps or ad impressions.
Comments
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy
How did you read their statements message? What risks to their business are they likely referring to in your opinion?
That they're embarrassed to bring it up since: (i) The numbers are not as good as everyone claims they are (remember "smooth"?); (ii) Their ASP sucks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
Just curious. Where/how do you trade your Apple shares sitting as a (I assume) retail investor in Europe? Also, in which country do you live?
Luxembourg.
I visit Germany and France very often :-)
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
I would have no trouble at all if they did that. I would accept their numbers at face value if they brought it up in a post-earnings analyst conference call.
What you fail to understand is that going public with this kind of disclosure -- even though it is voluntary -- requires you to be as truthful as you can, for otherwise, you run a massive risk of being caught out, with all kinds of negative reputational consequences. Sensible companies simply cannot afford to lie or dissemble with such disclosure.
Doesn't Apple always use qualifiers when they report their channel inventory estimates, perhaps so as to avoid being nailed on specific claims? As a seasoned investor you know more about it than I do.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
That they're embarrassed to bring it up since: (i) The numbers are not as good as everyone claims they are (remember "smooth"?); (ii) Their ASP sucks.
So their numbers used to be better and their ASP didn't suck when they reported sales prior to the middle of 2011? It could just be a coincidence I suppose that the timing happened to coincide with the beginning of Apple's lawsuits against Sammie.
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou
Apple was able to slow down its tablet market share freefall with the ipad mini, its needs to move asap on the phone side.
Overwhelming dominance of the tablet market is not 'freefall'. The only reason percentages are dropping is because crapola tablet-shaped readers are being disingenuously called 'tablets'.
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou
of course, when we are not happy with the numbers lets question the source...
Fact is Apple is painting itseft into a niche corner just like it did in the 80's. This year is pretty much last chance for Apple to come out with multiple iphone models that adress the entire market.
Apple was able to slow down its tablet market share freefall with the ipad mini, its needs to move asap on the phone side.
I agree. Apple had a huge lead in every aspect and did a great job exploiting it, but when the lead started shrinking they failed to adjust their strategy until they didnt have a choice. Even moving from a 3.5" screen to a 4" screen was like pulling teeth. Here we are in mid 2013 and a bigger screen and lower end phone are just conjecture. I will be curious to see what they come out with in the fall, but one has to wonder what could have been.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Teamracer
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
Just curious. Where/how do you trade your Apple shares sitting as a (I assume) retail investor in Europe? Also, in which country do you live?
Luxembourg.
I visit Germany and France very often :-)
So what platform do you use to make retail trades in the US?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy
It could just be a coincidence I suppose ....
I think you suppose right.
Speaking of sales and screen sizes, I ran across a report of the top UK phones sold last quarter:
The first thing that jumped out to me, is that over 27% of the total phones sold were iPhone models.
The next is that at least 40% of the total phones sold had 4" or larger screens (it could be.. and probably is... more, since this only lists the top ten). At least 18% were 4.3" to 4.8". That's a pretty good market chunk.
Then I decided to chart the relative popularity of only the Android phones in the top ten. Turns out the overwhelming majority of the top sold are $300 and up.
And then only the relative popularity of the five Samsung phones in the top list:
Now, this leaves out the other phones that didn't make it to the top ten list, but it's still interesting to chart the most popular individual models.
I hope that apple can come up with something that lets everyone breath a sigh of relief, otherwise there is a good chance that if the marketshare drops further than developers will be making apple the second choice for apps design.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
So what platform do you use to make retail trades in the US?
A can purchase stocks from my online-banking at the main stock markets.
For american stocks the purchases are made via nasdaq
Quote:
Originally Posted by tribalogical
First, whenever someone opens with "longtime Apple supporter here" I know they're about to disparage Apple history/strategy pretty thoroughly.
Second, when the post turns out to contain literally every familiar, negative 'talking point' -- presented in almost the exact same order! -- as I've seen rolled into a few dozen other posts on AI comment threads recently, I start to detect a pattern of premeditation. Seriously.
I watch this in the political sphere as well. RNC puts out a list of anti-Obama talking points, which then make the rounds as "opinion" on the Sunday talk show circuit, and THOSE quotes are picked up by the 'news outlets' as crazily consistent headlines (even though they're quoting different people, it all ends up being the same meme).
Back to here: the same kind of background noise, based on a consistent "list" of talking points: The competition is 'catching up', Apple is alienating customers, losing mindshare, no Mac Pro in years, the "Final Cut X fiasco", no 'touch capability' in OSX (cue WIndows comparison)… make sure you use certain adjectives and descriptives: narrow, limited, crappy, ditching Apple, limiting, unexciting...
And then the big fail finish: "Apple just hasn't been EXCITING for a long time"...
I almost expect them to cue Samsung Ad copy: SAMSUNG has the MOST EXCITING products available today!
Either you are paid to be posting here, or you have drunk the Glenn Beck-styled koolaid from the paid-PR 'news' cycle…
Whether or not Apple has lost a couple of points of global market share is almost immaterial. Their products remain hugely in demand, margins (even adjusted) still above the competition by multiples, and their product mix, although appearing "limited" to some, actually satisfies any real needs people have in computing/telephony, etc...
When the hype and gimmicks have faded, Apple still stands as the most used, the highest quality, and the most consistent across the board… I find that pretty exciting myself...
Cheers dude! Very good troll hunting ;¬)
100 % with you on this... If it’s a paid person that does this for a living, what a lame life... And if they truly believe their own garbage nonsense, seriously lame hobby, I mean to troll around enthusiasts’ sites like that without even getting paid to do it (very sad).
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacRulez
No doubt your analytics firm is infinitely more successful than "idiots" like Gartner, but kindly tell us: for the period covered, what do you imagine is the difference between "sales" and "shipments", and what is the source for your data?
The truth is that Samsung and all the other firms are not really selling any phone! They just "ship" the phones to the stores then take them back in the middle of the night and throw them into the ocean! Everything is a lie! There are no Android phones, just iPhones! It's just a lie, lie, lie and a big conspiracy against Apple!
Originally Posted by Billandben
…windows8 phones are going to be a big challenge to beat…
Challenge? Beat 'em with one hand; they'll break pretty easily.
…when they break the the sales wall they have been behind for a few years.
Except they're never going to do this. People hate Windows 8 desktop, they hate it on the tablet, and they hated Windows Phone 7.
Microsoft is investing too much into a phone for it to fail…
Except it will, if their "success" over the last few years is any indicator… Amount invested has nothing to do with success.
I hope that apple can come up with something that lets everyone breath a sigh of relief, otherwise there is a good chance that if the marketshare drops further than developers will be making apple the second choice for apps design.
More false concern and FUD… Don't you people have anything better to do?
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
Just curious. Where/how do you trade your Apple shares sitting as a (I assume) retail investor in Europe? Also, in which country do you live?
Do you think you have to live in US to trade Apple shares? Everybody in the world can trade at NYSE. You just open an account with a US broker and start trading.
What bothers me most about this kind of reporting, is that it doesn't attempt to determine the accuracy of the information, nor any relationship between the parties. First it should have been mentioned that Samsung does not disclose actual retail sales, but only products shipped. Apple only discloses sales that are completed and delivered to a purchaser. Samsung can ship as many phones as they make, but can they actually sell them? Secondly, Gartner is notorious for their inaccurate numbers. Appleinsider has reported in the past on these inaccuracies, including an article In April of 2011 where Gartner predicted that Windows phones would control about the same amount of market as Apple by 2012. Finally, there is an ongoing financial and business relationship between Samsung and Gartner. About 6 months ago Gartner put on The Gartner Symposium/ITxpo 2012 with Samsung as the Premier Sponsor. To add to this, the very researchers that deliver these figures that the press reports without question, are many times ex-Samsung employees. The research director for Gartner covering Samsung and its competitors, was Samsung's product marketing manager for mobile application processors immediately prior to working for Gartner. It is one thing for a company to continue to put out information called research that is a veiled advertisement for Samsung, but a very sad commentary on the fourth estate, the press, to blindly distribute the information without any research and verification.
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnarpy
...It is one thing for a company to continue to put out information called research that is a veiled advertisement for Samsung, but a very sad commentary on the fourth estate, the press, to blindly distribute the information without any research and verification.
Because for the most part, there is no "press" such as you describe anymore. The lure of free content on click-bait advertising sites has virtually wiped out news reporting and analysis. We got what we paid for, and we're stuck with it.
ps: gargle analytics tells me that you forgot to brush your teeth after lunch, again.
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou
Computer business is not the car business. You must maintain critical mass to keep the ecosystem going on. IF Apple gets to low it will start losing its devs.
Okay, I agree it's not like the car business. So how do you start-up as a new company with a new product? If it's not possible, then perhaps it's time to change the rules. Somehow.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damn_Its_Hot
This reminds me of when HP said its numbers for the webOS Tablet were in line with what it expected and everyone was speculating a million or more sold initially--only to find out that the initial run was only 90,000 (although they made more for some reason and then had a fire sale).
Such examples are very short-lived, usually only one or two quarters at most before they're exposed. Samsung has continued to report revenue increases and sales milestones for a couple of years now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
Here's what I predict the response will be, to the two questions: (i) We don't report volumes shipped because Korean reporting standards do not require us to; (ii) We don't know (or are not sure of) how to estimate channel inventory.
Even American standards don't require reporting channel inventory. Heck, Apple only started mentioning it in their voice calls months after the iPhone went on sale, and only then because suddenly people were asking where millions of sold iPhones were disappearing to, since carrier activations didn't jibe with Apple's numbers. (It turned out to be partly inventory buildup, and partly unlocked phones being sent overseas.)
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnarpy
First it should have been mentioned that Samsung does not disclose actual retail sales, but only products shipped.
Samsung does not disclose products shipped, either, but they do disclose revenue from which extrapolations can be made, partly from their public milestone announcements for major products.
Quote:
Secondly, Gartner is notorious for their inaccurate numbers.
Definitely Gartner can be terrible at predictions. They seem to be much better at past numbers.
Developers care about making money. iOS makes more money for them than Android whether it be for paid apps or ad impressions.