Editorial: Can Apple survive 2013?

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  • Reply 141 of 273
    asciiascii Posts: 5,936member


    Analysts are so down on Apple because they have this idea stuck in their heads that manufacturing is the past, and software (Microsoft) and services (Google) are the future.


     


    But in some ways software is commoditizing too. Operating systems are certainly a commodity (Android and Linux). There's a variety of office types apps. And services are just software (admittedly big data software): running on a server. It's hard to set up a data centre, but a startup can just rent one from Amazon.


     


    The point I am making is that Tim is right: the value these days is at the *intersection* of hardware/software/services: in making them all work together. Not in any one of the 3 alone. Making them work smoothly together is the non-commoditized challenge humanity currently faces. Just like in the 80s compatibility was the challenge and Microsoft solved that (these days the Internet solves it and MS is no longer solving valuable problem). So investors/analysts should really be bullish on Apple as they are at today's value point.

  • Reply 142 of 273

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Gazoobee View Post


     


    Totally agree.  


     


    I think with good editing (and an attitude that would allow him to allow someone else to edit his stuff), DED could be one of the best writers in the industry because his ideas are great, his research is usually better than most and he has insight and a sense of humour.  However, sloppy mistakes and being overly wordy, kill the mood and turn off the reader.  



     


    I'll fix that for you, for free: However, sloppy mistakes and being overly wordy, kill the mood and turn off the superficial reader.  


    Competent readers and enquirers go for the essence, the core message and disregard all else...

  • Reply 143 of 273
    vadaniavadania Posts: 425member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by jguther View Post





    Your post is based on a fundamental mistake.





    What you say is "value".



    What you mean is "market valuation".





    These are two completely different things.


    Yes, and recently (in my life time at least) those of us in America had a president escape Impeachment due to the definition of the word "is".


     


    I'm very well versed in the stock exchange.  There should be a separate forum for such topics.

  • Reply 144 of 273
    vadaniavadania Posts: 425member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by ascii View Post


    software (Microsoft) and services (Google) are the future.


     


    But in some ways software is commoditizing too. Operating systems are certainly a commodity (Android and Linux). There's a variety of office types apps. And services are just software (admittedly big data software) 


     


    The point I am making is that Tim is right: the value these days is at the *intersection* of hardware/software/services: in making them all work together. Not in any one of the 3 alone. Making them work smoothly together is the non-commoditized challenge humanity currently faces. Just like in the 80s compatibility was the challenge and Microsoft solved that (these days the Internet solves it and MS is no longer solving valuable problem). So investors/analysts should really be bullish on Apple as they are at today's value point.



    The non-comoditized item is what I call the (Under O.S.)  An operating system that can run anything quote "below it".


     


    I know people who are developing this and it will be a bain/pain to Google, MS, and APPL.  It's the highest common denominator.


     


    I honestly didn't give anything away that wasn't already cemented.  Besides what I already deleted.

  • Reply 145 of 273

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by ascii View Post


    Analysts are so down on Apple because they have this idea stuck in their heads that manufacturing is the past, and software (Microsoft) and services (Google) are the future.


     


    But in some ways software is commoditizing too. Operating systems are certainly a commodity (Android and Linux). There's a variety of office types apps. And services are just software (admittedly big data software): running on a server. It's hard to set up a data centre, but a startup can just rent one from Amazon.


     


    The point I am making is that Tim is right: the value these days is at the *intersection* of hardware/software/services: in making them all work together. Not in any one of the 3 alone. Making them work smoothly together is the non-commoditized challenge humanity currently faces. Just like in the 80s compatibility was the challenge and Microsoft solved that (these days the Internet solves it and MS is no longer solving valuable problem). So investors/analysts should really be bullish on Apple as they are at today's value point.



     


    Agree both with you and the analysts, but while manufacturing may well be the past and SaaS the future, Vertical Integration (Apple and Samsung), which is a brilliant combination of both approaches, is very much the present, and a solid foundation from which to prepare for the future.


     


    From this perspective, Samsung has a ways to go on the software integration side (Tizen or possibly a fork of Android in mobile, weaning itself off Windows on the desktop, etcetera) while Microsoft and Google either need to concentrate on their core software/services competencies, or make more convincing efforts at creating an impression on the hardware front (XBox, Surface, Nexus and Glass are yet to gain sufficient traction in the market to boost their prospects). Apple on the other hand, already established hardware- and retail-wise, is well on the way to fusing its mobile (iOS) and desktop (OS X) software offerings in the iCloud, with big data infrastructure projects well under way in the USA (no doubt overseas expansion will follow  hard on the heels of their worldwide retail forays).


     


    So yes, the market should be far more bullish on Apple's prospects than they currently are, a travesty of a mystery that only time will justify or condemn as the future unfolds.

  • Reply 146 of 273
    asciiascii Posts: 5,936member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Vadania View Post


    The non-comoditized item is what I call the (Under O.S.)  An operating system that can run anything quote "below it".


     


    I know people who are developing this and it will be a bain/pain to Google, MS, and APPL.  It's the highest common denominator.


     


    I honestly didn't give anything away that wasn't already cemented.  Besides what I already deleted.



    Doesn't VMware/hypervisor kind of already solve that? It's not one OS that can run any app, but it lets you run any app just by having e.g. a Windows VM, a Linux VM, a Mac VM all on the same machine. As I said compatibility is not a valuable problem to solve any more, the Internet already lets people swap data amongst heterogeneous platforms. Integration is today's hard problem.

  • Reply 147 of 273
    asciiascii Posts: 5,936member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by airmanchairman View Post


    So yes, the market should be far more bullish on Apple's prospects than they currently are, a travesty of a mystery that only time will justify or condemn as the future unfolds.



    I honestly don't get it myself. It's either financial games, or the analysts really don't grok Tim's point about the value being in integration: they can only think about software OR services OR hardware and not realise there is a fourth thing: the relationship between them. But people aren't that stupid, so it must be some sort of finance move/scheme.

  • Reply 148 of 273
    graxspoograxspoo Posts: 162member
    Android is a great phone OS. I was an iPhone user for years, but I jumped to the Android side of things because I'm a cheapskate (saved over 2k over 2 years switching to Android on Virgin Mobile). I can do everything on my Android phone I could do on my iPhone. In some ways its more capable. I like being able to download stuff from the internet, for example. It's nice having a small file system on my phone that you can actually access. I like the way Google Voice integrates into the phone (Someone stalking you? Block their calls. Permanently.) I prefer Google services over Apple services, and mobile is a lot about the service back-bone rather than the actual device or OS. I think it's absolutely crazy that Apple is trying to do all this stuff (map service, cloud service etc etc) on their own. It leaves their customers with less choice, and it means that Apple has to devote significant resources to maintaining aspects of their operations which are not profit centers (how exactly are they going to monetize their map service?)
    Apple makes fantastic hardware (though the glass on the back of the iPhone 4 and 5 is plain stupid) and their OS is solid (though I hate the games they play with developers and the app store) so it's a nice solution for a lot of people.
    On the other hand, Android, while less reliable and more "tweaky", gets the job done as well, and is actually a better choice for people that want maximum flexibility, the best access to Google services, and are maybe even a little cheap. Plus, Widgets!
  • Reply 149 of 273


    Very astute argument Dan. It absolutely staggers me that none of the big IT companies have had the sense to do what Steve Jobs started at Apple with the iMac and Mac OSX, and that the shareholders of those companies have not started demanding the heads of their overpaid and under-performing CEOs. Sadly, it will be many years before Apple has a serious competitor because it takes many years to do what Steve Jobs did at Apple. And by then Apple will be many years in advance of where they are now. People seem to love nit-picking at Apple products, but the real genius of Apple is the design process, not just of individual products, but of the entire 'ecosystem'. That is very, very hard to copy, let alone beat.

  • Reply 150 of 273
    poksipoksi Posts: 482member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by graxspoo View Post



    Android is a great phone OS. I was an iPhone user for years, but I jumped to the Android side of things because I'm a cheapskate (saved over 2k over 2 years switching to Android on Virgin Mobile). I can do everything on my Android phone I could do on my iPhone. In some ways its more capable. I like being able to download stuff from the internet, for example. It's nice having a small file system on my phone that you can actually access. I like the way Google Voice integrates into the phone (Someone stalking you? Block their calls. Permanently.) I prefer Google services over Apple services, and mobile is a lot about the service back-bone rather than the actual device or OS. I think it's absolutely crazy that Apple is trying to do all this stuff (map service, cloud service etc etc) on their own. It leaves their customers with less choice, and it means that Apple has to devote significant resources to maintaining aspects of their operations which are not profit centers (how exactly are they going to monetize their map service?)

    Apple makes fantastic hardware (though the glass on the back of the iPhone 4 and 5 is plain stupid) and their OS is solid (though I hate the games they play with developers and the app store) so it's a nice solution for a lot of people.

    On the other hand, Android, while less reliable and more "tweaky", gets the job done as well, and is actually a better choice for people that want maximum flexibility, the best access to Google services, and are maybe even a little cheap. Plus, Widgets!


     


    I wouldn't know about saving money with Android, but I am pretty much sure you don't understand the Apple offering so it makes sense your are using Google's.


     


    There are 2 opposite contexts, 2 opposite mentalities and therefore approaches. Let me show you how I feel about things you pointed out:


     


    - free downloading of files without control from app scares a hell out of me, I wouldn't want it for security and hygienic reasons (I have to clean up disk drive from my Mac every now and then, for example...) and I really see not case, where this could be useful to me also on mobile device...concept is different, phone and tablets are not squeezed notebooks..


    - access file system from outside? read my points above and beside, I expect my files to be accessible from cloud everywhere, not from my mobile device as some twisted idea of portable disk drive...


    - blocking the calls? it is no issue for me, if it was, i can activate app or it can be new feature in iOS7 (old for you, you will most probably say, Apple is waaaaayyy behind Android and stuff like that...) but I really se no value in this feature, it is a gadget-like feature. Can be there, but I don't miss it at all...


    - Apple could stay with Google maps, however Google was the one that started omitting features for iOS in spite of the fact that vast majority of Google's revenue comes from iOS. Apple simple realized that Google are the bastards and that they have to get rid dependency on the, Similarly to Samsung. I think Apple has done a great job with maps in only one year and content will improve substantially very soon, they still haven't learned the process of quality assurance in this area. But they will.


    - Cloud services?  Apple has opposite idea to others. Apple sees Cloud as way for application to communicate to each other and not just sharing and storing files. Apps that support iCloud are waaaaaay more efficient in it that anything from Google I have seen and used. However, it is not opened as Google's. I would like to have document share in iCloud, but not in a way that Google has, where a stupid colleague can do a lot of damage. Still, above all I would like to have Xcode projects in iCloud, hope to see that soon...


    - do you honestly believe Apple cannot and won't monetize on Maps service? How long after introduction has monetizing of Google's Maps started?


    - "...though I hate the games they play with developers and the app store..." I like those games they play with us on app store. I am much better developer since I started to develop on iOS that I was ever before on any platform. I also like idea my software is not being pirated by stupid geek who think stealing a piece for dollar is an achievement to show of in front of girls in school...


    - "... the best access to Google services..." see, you answered to yourself: Google are thieves and disloyal, dishonest "partners", Apple must go away from them.


    - "...Plus, Widgets!..."  that is actually hilarious :))


     


    So, summarized, you just wrote your perception without any real argument, except "open and flexible" which is already well knowing blablabla and serves nothing. I develop in team of iOS and Android and I know what the problems of Android and iOS are. Apple has really different approach to problems: if the cannot solve them, they don't show them. That's why Apple works for people.

  • Reply 151 of 273
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    ascii wrote: »

    It's a fairly standard thing in software dev for developers to receive a requirements document specifying functionality, including what the GUI will look like, and they're expected to just implement it. I don't think devs would quit over the design team giving them a GUI specification, it would just seem normal practice.
    Well I haven't heard any rumors of software design/human interface team members revolting over iOS 7. And as I said, watching some of the WWDC developer videos, the Apple software engineers hosting them sure seemed excited about what they were showing off. I didn't get the feeling any of them were going through the motions pretending to be excited or embarrassed about what they had to show.
    ascii wrote: »
    But we did. Before WWDC13 Gruber came out and said iOS 7 would be "polarising." At that point, before it was publicly available, who could have been polarised but the people at Apple?
    http://www.macrumors.com/2013/06/09/ios-7-all-the-leaks-are-wrong/
    Well Gruber wasn't right as all the leaks weren't wrong. Most of the leaks from 9to5Mac were accurate. Also as far as "polarizing", Gruber didn't mean that people at Apple were polarized but that they knew the public probably would be because its such a big change and so different from iOS 6 visually. But so far none of them have reported any internal revolt at Apple over iOS 7. Considering we got a number of leaks prior to WWDC if there was anything like that it would've leaked somehow. Just like that article in Fast Company last year that claimed some employees (Including Ive) were against the skeuomorphic design language. This article came about a month or so before Forstall was let go.

    http://www.fastcodesign.com/1670760/will-apples-tacky-software-design-philosophy-cause-a-revolt
  • Reply 152 of 273
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    bwhagain wrote: »
    A
    Android has been catching up for the past 5 years, by making it look and more and more like iOS. iOS is never about feature piling, remember iPhone did not even have 3G. Only iOS 4 added multi tasking. Blackberry had that well before 2007. Those things are NOT important. iOS has always excelled on intuitiveness and fluidity, which Android could never match. Some idiots deride Apple was for non tech people, that is actually the highest compliments for developer/designers, because they took pains to make their product easy to use. iOS 7 has neither. It is stupid and ugly. After using it a day I switched back to iOS 6 and could not be happier.
    Then stay on iOS 6. I'm sure Scott Forstall will be pleased.

    I'm certainly glad you're not the one making decisions at Apple. Btw, the multitasking in iOS 7 (along with control center) got some of the loudest cheers at WWDC keynote. So obviously developers don't agree that these things are not important. And after Apple ran the video on iOS 7 it got a standings ovation from some of the developers in the audience. So not everyone thinks its stupid and ugly.
  • Reply 153 of 273
    matrix07matrix07 Posts: 1,993member
    cash907 wrote: »
    Can they survive? Sure. Can they prospect at Apple-esque levels? Not if they don't start releasing some bleep bleep products already. A MacBook Air refresh that doesn't even run at the wireless speeds advertised thanks to handicapping at the OS level? Yawn. Next.

    Here a food for thought. Might be able to enlighten you if you're not too thick already.

    "MacBook Air has impacted their (owner) lives. It's a game changer."

    http://thenextweb.com/apple/2013/06/30/we-asked-8-new-macbook-air-owners-how-the-extended-battery-has-impacted-their-life-heres-what-they-said/?awesm=tnw.to_t5qm&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Spreadus&utm_campaign=social media
  • Reply 154 of 273
    eyeakeleyeakel Posts: 11member
    I get so tired of the Wall Street, talking heads, always up in Apple's sh--. Apple will always make unique, very well made products. So funny, if Apple isn't tidal waving the category the press and Wall Street go crazy. I love Appleinsider, so don't jump on that money whore bandwagon guys.
  • Reply 155 of 273
    ruel24ruel24 Posts: 432member


    I'm late to this conversation, but Apple has the highest customer loyalty of any brand, period. There's no doubt they'll be successful this year and for years to come. As much crap as I give them here, I have a hard time leaving them because not only are their products damn good, but their service is just out of this world. If anything Samsung will suffer thinner margins this year and rake in smaller profits, if not a loss, on Android products. I think they just have too many products on the market. Apple has only 4 iOS products on the market and doing very well.

  • Reply 156 of 273
    a_greera_greer Posts: 4,594member


    Lots of BB users switched to android lately because BB just didnt keep up, but with BB10 they are back and with the q10 we have a modern smartphone with a high quality physical portrate orientation  keyboard so I think within a year we will see a sales split of abut 35% iphone, 40% android, 22% BB and 3% win phone 


     


    I doubt I'm the only person who misses the real keyboard from BB, I could type so fast, without looking at the kb, would be nice to get tht back...

  • Reply 157 of 273
    sirdirsirdir Posts: 188member
    Well, I'm sure Apple will still be strong some more years. But I think it's lost it's magic (or common sense) and the growth will quicky slow down%u2026
    I haven't seen so many (in my opinion) bad decisions from Apple the last 15 years as in the last few months. At least I am concerned.
    I already started looking for alternatives, something I haven't done the last 10 years.
  • Reply 158 of 273
    a_greera_greer Posts: 4,594member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by charlituna View Post



    Total pile of BS and FUD.



    Apple is constantly showing u in headline after headline about adoption of iPads and sometimes even iPhones by this or that company or school. Reports of developers creating for iOS but got Android etc



    Apple will do just fine against this Android threat.


    People who buy ipads for large school systems and to a lesser extent companies are either fanboys or ignorant suckers, possibly both...How are the students in LA public schools supposed to write term papers on their iPads? with pages.app and no file system? good luck with that...

  • Reply 159 of 273
    mhiklmhikl Posts: 471member
    ascii wrote: »
    Analysts are so down on Apple because they have this idea stuck in their heads that manufacturing is the past, and software (Microsoft) and services (Google) are the future.

    . . .

    The point I am making is that Tim is right: the value these days is at the *intersection* of hardware/software/services: in making them all work together. . . .

    Clearly put.

    Poetry can be difficult to comprehend. Apple makes the art look simple.
    (I write for Hallmark.) :smokey:
  • Reply 160 of 273
    mj1970mj1970 Posts: 9,002member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post



    Android is regarded a omniscient deity that gets credit for everything positive that ever happens without also getting blamed for all of the ugly cruelty and suffering in the world. Apple is more like the scientist who cures cancer, only to hear complaints of "why didn't you do that last year?" and "so you're not going to cure my obesity? What a jerk!"


     


    Holy shit. Are you serious? The two straw men and obvious partisanship aside here, my goodness this is an incredibly childish and overly simplistic characterization.


     


    I mean I guess it is an editorial, but at least it could be a good one.


     


    And I'm an Apple fan!


     


    P.S. The subtle jab at people of faith is not lost either. Sheesh. Grow up.

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