I think they *could* be real, but there is no way to tell one way or the other based on the evidence presented.
The thing is though, what you're saying here is essentially that one picture of a guy in a gorilla suit is a fake, but if there are two pictures … it's a sasquatch.
Last time I check pretty much all of the android phones are plastic. They sell a lot more of those than iphones. I dont think they can go lower if they keep the current iphone 5 internals. It would be better to be between $300 to $400, depends on internatls.
btw there are rumors those are actually the high end phone shells, you better pray they are not.
There's no evidence that "a lot" more Android phones (we're talking flagship phones here, not cheap junk) are sold than iPhones. In the US the top 3 selling phones are all iPhones. Sure, Android phones are more popular in Asia. But they also sell at much lower margin in general. Apple doesn't strike me as about to decide to go for the "high volume, low margin" approach.
And there are "rumors" that these are the high end phone shells? Rumors from where? I can make up a rumor too: There are rumors that Adriana Lima and Alessandra Ambrosio are heading over to my house for a threesome at this very moment! See how easy that was?
Quote:
Originally Posted by nht
All the high end Galaxies are plastic. The S4 is $649 off contract. The Nokia 928 off contract is $449. The HTC OneX was plastic and $549 off contract.
If people are buying the S4 off contract then the answer is yes.
But those are premium phones. Of course they cost a lot. You can buy the iPhone unlocked too.
The question is whether or not a non-premium, non-flagship plastic (and candy colored) iPhone with last year's (at best) internals would sell for $350-$400? The answer, it seems to me, is no.
If you notice the background of the yellow case is a dramatically different hue than the others. I color correct this one adjusting the background to look like the others and voila, the case is the bright yellow we saw in earlier photos.
Who is being "held back" from buying iPhones? See, this is what I don't get. Apple sold nearly 50 MILLION of these things in the first quarter of fiscal 2013. In fiscal 2012 they sold 125M iPhones alone.
That's only a small increase though. What would be telling is whether the rate of growth is slowing or not growing fast enough.
I've read enough reports to believe that there seems to be a wide consensus that sales are slowing down for high-end handsets and that the part of the market served by the iPhone is becoming saturated. Therefore they need to move to other segments of the market to maintain sales, therefore a cheaper iPhone.
Even aside from that though, Apple has said a few times about how they want to "revolutionise the industry," or indeed claimed to have already done so. I don't believe either actually as Apple has done basically squat in this area so far, but if you take them at their word, this will never happen as long as they are cow-towing to the carriers. A cheap, off-contract, but yet top of the line smartphone would break the carrier hold on the consumer to some degree.
Finally, Tim Cook was heard to say at that secret retail meeting last week, that they want to be able to be the main point of sale/introduction for their own products which are for the moment primarily sold by the carriers. He talked about how the carriers do a poor job of selling the iPhone, but yet the majority of sales and the majority of consumer interactions were captured by the carrier stores. He wants for people to be able to come into an Apple store to buy their phone and he wants the majority of the sales to be that way. This would enable them to give better service and to also increase the customers exposure to their other products.
Selling a cheap off-contract phone direct from the Apple stores would go a long way towards that goal also.
I think they *could* be real, but there is no way to tell one way or the other based on the evidence presented.
The thing is though, what you're saying here is essentially that one picture of a guy in a gorilla suit is a fake, but if there are two pictures … it's a sasquatch.
I agree with your first sentence. I disagree with your second. I say "by now" because I've been slowly convinced over the past 2-3 months. The part leaks, comments by Tim Cook, and just plain good business sense of it (as explained in my previous posts in this thread) all combine to make a pretty convincing argument. To me, the evidence, as shaky as it may be, is overwhelmingly in favor of a low-cost iPhone being introduced this fall and these pictures as being actual parts from it.
Played with a larger Samsung screen phone over the weekend. Hated it but sure did like the bigger screen. I do beleive there is a big market that wants a bigger screen that Apple is missing out on now, espeically in Asia.
That's only a small increase though. What would be telling is whether the rate of growth is slowing or not growing fast enough.
I've read enough reports to believe that there seems to be a wide consensus that sales are slowing down for high-end handsets and that the part of the market served by the iPhone is becoming saturated. Therefore they need to move to other segments of the market to maintain sales, therefore a cheaper iPhone.
iPhone unit sales by fiscal year:
2010: 40B
2011: 72B
2012: 125B
2013: 85B (so far, through 2Qs)
I'm not seeing how that's slow growth, really. Are they supposed to increase sales by 100% every year? Profits are through the roof. Sales are enormous. The ecosystem is thriving.
I'm not seeing how that's slow growth, really. Are they supposed to increase sales by 100% every year? Profits are through the roof. Sales are enormous. The ecosystem is thriving.
What am I missing?
The fact that iPhone's percentage growth is lower than the total smartphone market, thus giving them a smaller overall share of the market every quarter. Nominally they have terrific growth, but relative to the growth of the market, it's lower and slowing down.
The fact that iPhone's percentage growth is lower than the total smartphone market, thus giving them a smaller overall share of the market every quarter. Nominally they have terrific growth, but relative to the growth of the market, it's lower and slowing down.
Can you show me that this is true? Or that it is true for at least semi-premium phones, at least?
I mean, a lot of things count as "smartphones" these days. Something could sell for a 10% margin and be a piece of junk and be called a "smartphone." Do you have numbers on this?
Last time I check pretty much all of the android phones are plastic. They sell a lot more of those than iphones. I dont think they can go lower if they keep the current iphone 5 internals. It would be better to be between $300 to $400, depends on internatls.
btw there are rumors those are actually the high end phone shells, you better pray they are not.
Android plastic phones sell more COMBINED, not one model.
Am I the only one that thinks this new photo looks exactly like the current iPod Touches? Not "matches nicely with" or "resembles" or "generally in the ballpark" but "could as well be iPod Touches"?
Take current iPod Touch cases, put protective plastic film on them, photograph, that's what you'd get.
So is it such a stretch to imagine that that's, in fact, what the cheap iPhone will be? We've been hearing about plastic cases, but that seems to be based on case shots that look glossy (which clearly involve protective plastic wrap) and some assumptions about what cheap means.
But Apple already sells a 32GB Touch with an A5 processor, Retina screen, mic and camera for $300, and that has an anodized aluminum case offered in what appears to be exactly the colors being leaked. Given the vastly larger market for a cheap iPhone, is it really that hard to imagine them adding a cell radio and keeping the price?
I mean, doesn't that sound more likely than all this carrying on about plastic cases and weird colors?
Could even be red herrings planted by Apple in their quest to double down on security.
Will a cheaper iPhone happen? Yes. Will it come this fall? Very likely.
Apple has done a great job of keeping their largest projects quiet so far this year, up until the unveil, so I honestly think this year will have more surprises then we're expecting.
I'm standing by my prediction for an aluminum low cost iPhone this fall, and I think we'll see Steve's original vision behind the iPhone come to fruition as far as the selling of the device.
The new phone won't be bound by carriers. Instead you'll buy it from the Apple store completely unlocked you'll be able to sync your phone with iTunes, choose your carrier, and activate your phone from the comfort of home. This is what Steve wanted but it's taken 6 years for this dream to become a reality.
Apple and more importantly the USER will be put back in control of their iPhone, NOT the greedy selfish Android-loving carriers.
Am I the only one that thinks this new photo looks exactly like the current iPod Touches? Not "matches nicely with" or "resembles" or "generally in the ballpark" but "could as well be iPod Touches"?
Take current iPod Touch cases, put protective plastic film on them, photograph, that's what you'd get.
So is it such a stretch to imagine that that's, in fact, what the cheap iPhone will be? We've been hearing about plastic cases, but that seems to be based on case shots that look glossy (which clearly involve protective plastic wrap) and some assumptions about what cheap means.
But Apple already sells a 32GB Touch with an A5 processor, Retina screen, mic and camera for $300, and that has an anodized aluminum case offered in what appears to be exactly the colors being leaked. Given the vastly larger market for a cheap iPhone, is it really that hard to imagine them adding a cell radio and keeping the price?
I mean, doesn't that sound more likely than all this carrying on about plastic cases and weird colors?
Excellent point. Not quite as straight forward as you spell out, but not that far of a stretch.
Whatever the white balance issues might be here, this latest batch of colours seem a bit more classy than the garish ones they've shown so far and much closer to the iPod touch shades. Although comparing one for one the iPod touch appears more 'expensive' but that's because anodised metal always looks of better quality than plastic. And yes, I think this model will replace the 4, the iPhone 5 the 4S with the 5S obviously becoming the flagship. Still wish they'd launch a '5X' above the 5S with a larger 5 inch screen, but that's not going to happen this year - maybe next year then with the iPhone 6.
As for signal1's theory above - plastic film on a metal casing, that would be nice but is unlikely. You can see by the photos that there is indeed a layer of film over the casings (there is visible bubbles) but metal can't transfer radio signals so there would need to be a transmission window like on the iPod touch, but there isn't. I wonder if it is at all possible that Apple might use neither metal nor plastic for the casing but ceramic instead? It can easily transfer radio like plastic without the need for a window, and they did file a patent a while back concerning the use of ceramic for smartphone cases. But unless they've developed some new manufacturing technique, I'd imagine it would be rather expensive to do it that way...anyway a couple more months and all will be revealed.
Remember the device is just an entry point to there ecosystem.. Once someone get the Apple iOS feel be it in a cheaper device, they are going to be tempted to go for a more premium phone next year perhaps. I think the strategy just helps the ecosystem broaden.
Very good point. I remember, back in the day, coveting the G3 silver (Titanium-?) laptops but could only afford a G3 white plastic iBook. I came to really like the white color as opposed to the "pallbearer gray" and "funeral black" of all the other laptops. Nevertheless, the white ibooks did start looking dated and I now really like the MBA's.
I never did get a MBP or MP....but I sure bought into the ecosystem. First intel iMac, first intel MB, first ATV, first shuffle, mini, and first iteration of the iPhone, (3GS and now 4S) and an iPad2!
I think the white high end phone and the colors of the new phone will go quite well with the iO7 color scheme!
Whatever the white balance issues might be here, this latest batch of colours seem a bit more classy than the garish ones they've shown so far and much closer to the iPod touch shades. Although comparing one for one the iPod touch appears more 'expensive' but that's because anodised metal always looks of better quality than plastic. And yes, I think this model will replace the 4, the iPhone 5 the 4S with the 5S obviously becoming the flagship. Still wish they'd launch a '5X' above the 5S with a larger 5 inch screen, but that's not going to happen this year - maybe next year then with the iPhone 6.
As for signal1's theory above - plastic film on a metal casing, that would be nice but is unlikely. You can see by the photos that there is indeed a layer of film over the casings (there is visible bubbles) but metal can't transfer radio signals so there would need to be a transmission window like on the iPod touch, but there isn't. I wonder if it is at all possible that Apple might use neither metal nor plastic for the casing but ceramic instead? It can easily transfer radio like plastic without the need for a window, and they did file a patent a while back concerning the use of ceramic for smartphone cases. But unless they've developed some new manufacturing technique, I'd imagine it would be rather expensive to do it that way...anyway a couple more months and all will be revealed.
Then again, these cases also don't have the normal "Designed by Apple etc" text, so it's not entirely clear what we're looking at. Prototypes? Mockups? Fakes? Re-purposed Touches?
At any rate, I think the existing Touch makes it clear that Apple need not turn to plastic to hit a price point. Seems like a 16 GB Touch based iPhone could easily sell for $300 (in that that's what a 32 GB Touch goes for).
And as far as an antenna window goes, Apple has got a lot of experience now with their external antenna. Perhaps they've worked out a way to incorporate such a thing into a Touch like enclosure.
At any rate, I think the existing Touch makes it clear that Apple need not turn to plastic to hit a price point.
+1
As others have said plastic wont save them much money anyway so I don't see what the point would be.
I could see an aluminum iPhone with rounded edges being very popular and profitable for Apple.
If the cheaper phone is aluminum I could see Apple simply branding this new phone as simply "iPhone" and the 5S and subsequent higher end models as "iPhone Pro".
Plastic simply doesn't fit in Apple's ethos and it doesn't fit with anything else they sell.
Comments
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smiles77
Pretty sure these things are real by now.
...
I think they *could* be real, but there is no way to tell one way or the other based on the evidence presented.
The thing is though, what you're saying here is essentially that one picture of a guy in a gorilla suit is a fake, but if there are two pictures … it's a sasquatch.
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou
Last time I check pretty much all of the android phones are plastic. They sell a lot more of those than iphones. I dont think they can go lower if they keep the current iphone 5 internals. It would be better to be between $300 to $400, depends on internatls.
btw there are rumors those are actually the high end phone shells, you better pray they are not.
There's no evidence that "a lot" more Android phones (we're talking flagship phones here, not cheap junk) are sold than iPhones. In the US the top 3 selling phones are all iPhones. Sure, Android phones are more popular in Asia. But they also sell at much lower margin in general. Apple doesn't strike me as about to decide to go for the "high volume, low margin" approach.
And there are "rumors" that these are the high end phone shells? Rumors from where? I can make up a rumor too: There are rumors that Adriana Lima and Alessandra Ambrosio are heading over to my house for a threesome at this very moment! See how easy that was?
Quote:
Originally Posted by nht
All the high end Galaxies are plastic. The S4 is $649 off contract. The Nokia 928 off contract is $449. The HTC OneX was plastic and $549 off contract.
If people are buying the S4 off contract then the answer is yes.
But those are premium phones. Of course they cost a lot. You can buy the iPhone unlocked too.
The question is whether or not a non-premium, non-flagship plastic (and candy colored) iPhone with last year's (at best) internals would sell for $350-$400? The answer, it seems to me, is no.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AaronJ
...
Who is being "held back" from buying iPhones? See, this is what I don't get. Apple sold nearly 50 MILLION of these things in the first quarter of fiscal 2013. In fiscal 2012 they sold 125M iPhones alone.
That's only a small increase though. What would be telling is whether the rate of growth is slowing or not growing fast enough.
I've read enough reports to believe that there seems to be a wide consensus that sales are slowing down for high-end handsets and that the part of the market served by the iPhone is becoming saturated. Therefore they need to move to other segments of the market to maintain sales, therefore a cheaper iPhone.
Even aside from that though, Apple has said a few times about how they want to "revolutionise the industry," or indeed claimed to have already done so. I don't believe either actually as Apple has done basically squat in this area so far, but if you take them at their word, this will never happen as long as they are cow-towing to the carriers. A cheap, off-contract, but yet top of the line smartphone would break the carrier hold on the consumer to some degree.
Finally, Tim Cook was heard to say at that secret retail meeting last week, that they want to be able to be the main point of sale/introduction for their own products which are for the moment primarily sold by the carriers. He talked about how the carriers do a poor job of selling the iPhone, but yet the majority of sales and the majority of consumer interactions were captured by the carrier stores. He wants for people to be able to come into an Apple store to buy their phone and he wants the majority of the sales to be that way. This would enable them to give better service and to also increase the customers exposure to their other products.
Selling a cheap off-contract phone direct from the Apple stores would go a long way towards that goal also.
I agree with your first sentence. I disagree with your second. I say "by now" because I've been slowly convinced over the past 2-3 months. The part leaks, comments by Tim Cook, and just plain good business sense of it (as explained in my previous posts in this thread) all combine to make a pretty convincing argument. To me, the evidence, as shaky as it may be, is overwhelmingly in favor of a low-cost iPhone being introduced this fall and these pictures as being actual parts from it.
I see covers on most the iphones I see so not sure why colors would be such a big deal.
Played with a larger Samsung screen phone over the weekend. Hated it but sure did like the bigger screen. I do beleive there is a big market that wants a bigger screen that Apple is missing out on now, espeically in Asia.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gazoobee
That's only a small increase though. What would be telling is whether the rate of growth is slowing or not growing fast enough.
I've read enough reports to believe that there seems to be a wide consensus that sales are slowing down for high-end handsets and that the part of the market served by the iPhone is becoming saturated. Therefore they need to move to other segments of the market to maintain sales, therefore a cheaper iPhone.
iPhone unit sales by fiscal year:
2010: 40B
2011: 72B
2012: 125B
2013: 85B (so far, through 2Qs)
I'm not seeing how that's slow growth, really. Are they supposed to increase sales by 100% every year? Profits are through the roof. Sales are enormous. The ecosystem is thriving.
What am I missing?
The fact that iPhone's percentage growth is lower than the total smartphone market, thus giving them a smaller overall share of the market every quarter. Nominally they have terrific growth, but relative to the growth of the market, it's lower and slowing down.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smiles77
The fact that iPhone's percentage growth is lower than the total smartphone market, thus giving them a smaller overall share of the market every quarter. Nominally they have terrific growth, but relative to the growth of the market, it's lower and slowing down.
Can you show me that this is true? Or that it is true for at least semi-premium phones, at least?
I mean, a lot of things count as "smartphones" these days. Something could sell for a 10% margin and be a piece of junk and be called a "smartphone." Do you have numbers on this?
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou
Last time I check pretty much all of the android phones are plastic. They sell a lot more of those than iphones. I dont think they can go lower if they keep the current iphone 5 internals. It would be better to be between $300 to $400, depends on internatls.
btw there are rumors those are actually the high end phone shells, you better pray they are not.
Android plastic phones sell more COMBINED, not one model.
Am I the only one that thinks this new photo looks exactly like the current iPod Touches? Not "matches nicely with" or "resembles" or "generally in the ballpark" but "could as well be iPod Touches"?
Take current iPod Touch cases, put protective plastic film on them, photograph, that's what you'd get.
So is it such a stretch to imagine that that's, in fact, what the cheap iPhone will be? We've been hearing about plastic cases, but that seems to be based on case shots that look glossy (which clearly involve protective plastic wrap) and some assumptions about what cheap means.
But Apple already sells a 32GB Touch with an A5 processor, Retina screen, mic and camera for $300, and that has an anodized aluminum case offered in what appears to be exactly the colors being leaked. Given the vastly larger market for a cheap iPhone, is it really that hard to imagine them adding a cell radio and keeping the price?
I mean, doesn't that sound more likely than all this carrying on about plastic cases and weird colors?
I'm still convinced these are fake.
Could even be red herrings planted by Apple in their quest to double down on security.
Will a cheaper iPhone happen? Yes. Will it come this fall? Very likely.
Apple has done a great job of keeping their largest projects quiet so far this year, up until the unveil, so I honestly think this year will have more surprises then we're expecting.
I'm standing by my prediction for an aluminum low cost iPhone this fall, and I think we'll see Steve's original vision behind the iPhone come to fruition as far as the selling of the device.
The new phone won't be bound by carriers. Instead you'll buy it from the Apple store completely unlocked you'll be able to sync your phone with iTunes, choose your carrier, and activate your phone from the comfort of home. This is what Steve wanted but it's taken 6 years for this dream to become a reality.
Apple and more importantly the USER will be put back in control of their iPhone, NOT the greedy selfish Android-loving carriers.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tundraboy
It looks to me they still have the protective plastic film on them, that's why they have that cheap shiny look.
Yep. You can see a few bubbles under the protective film.
Quote:
Originally Posted by signal1
Am I the only one that thinks this new photo looks exactly like the current iPod Touches? Not "matches nicely with" or "resembles" or "generally in the ballpark" but "could as well be iPod Touches"?
Take current iPod Touch cases, put protective plastic film on them, photograph, that's what you'd get.
So is it such a stretch to imagine that that's, in fact, what the cheap iPhone will be? We've been hearing about plastic cases, but that seems to be based on case shots that look glossy (which clearly involve protective plastic wrap) and some assumptions about what cheap means.
But Apple already sells a 32GB Touch with an A5 processor, Retina screen, mic and camera for $300, and that has an anodized aluminum case offered in what appears to be exactly the colors being leaked. Given the vastly larger market for a cheap iPhone, is it really that hard to imagine them adding a cell radio and keeping the price?
I mean, doesn't that sound more likely than all this carrying on about plastic cases and weird colors?
Excellent point. Not quite as straight forward as you spell out, but not that far of a stretch.
As for signal1's theory above - plastic film on a metal casing, that would be nice but is unlikely. You can see by the photos that there is indeed a layer of film over the casings (there is visible bubbles) but metal can't transfer radio signals so there would need to be a transmission window like on the iPod touch, but there isn't. I wonder if it is at all possible that Apple might use neither metal nor plastic for the casing but ceramic instead? It can easily transfer radio like plastic without the need for a window, and they did file a patent a while back concerning the use of ceramic for smartphone cases. But unless they've developed some new manufacturing technique, I'd imagine it would be rather expensive to do it that way...anyway a couple more months and all will be revealed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nikilok
Remember the device is just an entry point to there ecosystem.. Once someone get the Apple iOS feel be it in a cheaper device, they are going to be tempted to go for a more premium phone next year perhaps. I think the strategy just helps the ecosystem broaden.
Very good point. I remember, back in the day, coveting the G3 silver (Titanium-?) laptops but could only afford a G3 white plastic iBook. I came to really like the white color as opposed to the "pallbearer gray" and "funeral black" of all the other laptops. Nevertheless, the white ibooks did start looking dated and I now really like the MBA's.
I never did get a MBP or MP....but I sure bought into the ecosystem. First intel iMac, first intel MB, first ATV, first shuffle, mini, and first iteration of the iPhone, (3GS and now 4S) and an iPad2!
I think the white high end phone and the colors of the new phone will go quite well with the iO7 color scheme!
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1983
Whatever the white balance issues might be here, this latest batch of colours seem a bit more classy than the garish ones they've shown so far and much closer to the iPod touch shades. Although comparing one for one the iPod touch appears more 'expensive' but that's because anodised metal always looks of better quality than plastic. And yes, I think this model will replace the 4, the iPhone 5 the 4S with the 5S obviously becoming the flagship. Still wish they'd launch a '5X' above the 5S with a larger 5 inch screen, but that's not going to happen this year - maybe next year then with the iPhone 6.
As for signal1's theory above - plastic film on a metal casing, that would be nice but is unlikely. You can see by the photos that there is indeed a layer of film over the casings (there is visible bubbles) but metal can't transfer radio signals so there would need to be a transmission window like on the iPod touch, but there isn't. I wonder if it is at all possible that Apple might use neither metal nor plastic for the casing but ceramic instead? It can easily transfer radio like plastic without the need for a window, and they did file a patent a while back concerning the use of ceramic for smartphone cases. But unless they've developed some new manufacturing technique, I'd imagine it would be rather expensive to do it that way...anyway a couple more months and all will be revealed.
Then again, these cases also don't have the normal "Designed by Apple etc" text, so it's not entirely clear what we're looking at. Prototypes? Mockups? Fakes? Re-purposed Touches?
At any rate, I think the existing Touch makes it clear that Apple need not turn to plastic to hit a price point. Seems like a 16 GB Touch based iPhone could easily sell for $300 (in that that's what a 32 GB Touch goes for).
And as far as an antenna window goes, Apple has got a lot of experience now with their external antenna. Perhaps they've worked out a way to incorporate such a thing into a Touch like enclosure.
+1
As others have said plastic wont save them much money anyway so I don't see what the point would be.
I could see an aluminum iPhone with rounded edges being very popular and profitable for Apple.
If the cheaper phone is aluminum I could see Apple simply branding this new phone as simply "iPhone" and the 5S and subsequent higher end models as "iPhone Pro".
Plastic simply doesn't fit in Apple's ethos and it doesn't fit with anything else they sell.