Earnings preview: Modest expectations for Apple's June 2013 quarter
As anticipation grows for Apple's next-generation iPhones and iPads, analysts aren't expecting much this afternoon, when the company will announce the results of its recently concluded June quarter.
With 44 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters, the average estimates for the June quarter call for $35.01 billion in revenue. That would be about flat from a year ago, when sales were $35.02 billion.
But earnings per share are expected to see a sharp decline from the year-ago quarter, from $9.32 in 2012 to an average estimate of $7.32 for June 2013.
As for specific product sales, RBC Capital Markets pegs Wall Street as expecting Apple to have sold 26.1 million iPhones in the June quarter. Like with the market's expected revenue, that number would be about flat year over year.
Investors also expect sales of 17.4 million iPads for the three-month period, a slight increase from the 17 million iPads Apple sold a year ago.
Averaged estimates also call for sales of 3.9 million Macs and 4.9 million iPods. Gross margin is expected to be about 36.7 percent.
Looking forward to the September quarter, RBC's Amit Daryanani expects Apple will offer guidance slightly below Wall Street expectations, with forecasted revenue of $36 billion and earnings per share of $7.50. He believes investors hope to see guidance of $37.9 billion in revenue and $8.12 earnings per share for the September frame.
Investors generally expect that Apple will launch multiple new iPhones toward the end of the September quarter. The company is rumored to be planning both a high end "iPhone 5S" and a new mid-range plastic "iPhone Lite" for launch in the coming months.
If those handsets were to go on sale in September, about a year after the debut of the iPhone 5, it's unlikely that the products would play a significant role in the launch quarter. Instead, the full effect of those launches would be seen in the following December quarter, where the iPhones would be available for the full three months.
Apple will report its results for the concluded June quarter and current September quarter after markets close this afternoon, and a conference call with company executives is scheduled for 5 p.m. Eastern, 2 p.m. Pacific. AppleInsider will have full, live coverage.
With 44 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters, the average estimates for the June quarter call for $35.01 billion in revenue. That would be about flat from a year ago, when sales were $35.02 billion.
But earnings per share are expected to see a sharp decline from the year-ago quarter, from $9.32 in 2012 to an average estimate of $7.32 for June 2013.
As for specific product sales, RBC Capital Markets pegs Wall Street as expecting Apple to have sold 26.1 million iPhones in the June quarter. Like with the market's expected revenue, that number would be about flat year over year.
Investors also expect sales of 17.4 million iPads for the three-month period, a slight increase from the 17 million iPads Apple sold a year ago.
Averaged estimates also call for sales of 3.9 million Macs and 4.9 million iPods. Gross margin is expected to be about 36.7 percent.
Looking forward to the September quarter, RBC's Amit Daryanani expects Apple will offer guidance slightly below Wall Street expectations, with forecasted revenue of $36 billion and earnings per share of $7.50. He believes investors hope to see guidance of $37.9 billion in revenue and $8.12 earnings per share for the September frame.
Investors generally expect that Apple will launch multiple new iPhones toward the end of the September quarter. The company is rumored to be planning both a high end "iPhone 5S" and a new mid-range plastic "iPhone Lite" for launch in the coming months.
If those handsets were to go on sale in September, about a year after the debut of the iPhone 5, it's unlikely that the products would play a significant role in the launch quarter. Instead, the full effect of those launches would be seen in the following December quarter, where the iPhones would be available for the full three months.
Apple will report its results for the concluded June quarter and current September quarter after markets close this afternoon, and a conference call with company executives is scheduled for 5 p.m. Eastern, 2 p.m. Pacific. AppleInsider will have full, live coverage.
Comments
One more time: so when Apple posts $35.00 billion, the stock will drop 40 points.
I am expecting a beat on iphone sales, a miss on ipad sales and a beat on EPS on massive buybacks. I am keeping cash in case of a major drop but I am going in with shares in one account and options leaps in the other.
Last year we had the new ipad 3 for this quarter, being flat this year on ipads would be great news.
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Originally Posted by AppleInsider
Oh God, the stores are empty, no one is buying, Apple is doomed! /s
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou
Last year we had the new ipad 3 for this quarter, being flat this year on ipads would be great news.
Excellent observation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
Excellent observation.
Looks like the analysts are very bullish on ipad mini sales to compensate for the lack of a new ipad. Thats the only bullish estimate they made.
Well, it IS their drummed-up device. They're the ones who thought Apple "needed" it in the first place, so of course they think it will succeed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil
One more time: so when Apple posts $35.00 billion, the stock will drop 40 points.
Assuming Apple meets estimates, guidance is going to be a key factor on price movement.
IF they miss those lowball estimates, the stock will drop hard because that would meen the YoY decline is very severe. We already have a YoY estimate decline of 25%, doing even worst is almost unthinkable and not price in at all.
Wouldn't 'meh' numbers already be priced in to the stock? So really we should only see a big swing if the numbers are much better/worse than the consensus. Of course Wall Street is never rational when it comes to Apple so if they post numbers that everyone is expecting the stock will probably still tank after hours.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBell
It would be nice for an article like this to tell us what Apple's guidance is in relation to the so called analysts. My guess is analysts are at the high end of Apple's guidance range, which if so, is not modest.
They are at the high end on revenue, but estimates on margins are low, so EPS is low at 25% YoY decline. Apple did not provide EPS guidance.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBell
It would be nice for an article like this to tell us what Apple's guidance is in relation to the so called analysts. My guess is analysts are at the high end of Apple's guidance range, which if so, is not modest.
If you squint, you can already see the trolls massing together at the horizon. Brace yourselves.
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou
Assuming Apple meets estimates, guidance is going to be a key factor on price movement..
This. Even the strongest Apple stock bulls expected this to a 'meh' quarter which is why the stock is where it is. Even if Apple were to come in a little lower, it won't matter, the guidance will be the key, as will any hints on when new products can be expected. That's where the 'news' is for the Street.
I love how "meh, not expecting much" is tantamount to sales/revenue/profit that will probably be some of the largest in corporate history, ever, and utterly decimating that of all the other major software/tech companies.
But hey, it's Apple, so "meh" indeed.
Let's face it, if Apple reported $135 billion the stock would drop also, because the 'Law of Large Numbers' was at play. :no:
I hope that the situation of the stock won't make us flabbergasted after the preview. A new precipitous drop in the stock will be excruciating for both the board of Apple and us. However I really abominate the idea that Tim Cook must be expelled. I find him good as a CEO so far.
Exactly. In fact, every tech / software CEO is wishing he/she could report such a 'meh' quarter ... along with the rest of the stuff like, oh I don't know, perhaps the money in the bank, customer satisfaction, P/E ratio ...
I have the vodka close at hand ...