Apple projected to ship nearly 65M 'iWatch' units priced at $199 in first year

Posted:
in Future Apple Hardware edited September 2014
Apple is rumored to be gearing up to partner with Inventec in 2014 to manufacture a massive 63.4 million smart watches priced at $199, according to a new report.

Wearable Device
AppleInsider was first to discover an Apple patent filing describing a watch design with flexible display.


Analyst Wang Wanli of CIMB Securities Limited revealed in a new interview with the Commercial Times that he believes Apple will launch its so-called "iWatch" in the second half of 2014. He expects annual shipments are projected to reach 63.4 million in the first year of availability ??a sum that would approach total iPod sales from 2008 to 2010.

Most of the "iWatch" manufacturing is expected to have been won by Taiwan's Inventec, which Wanli said is presumed to receive about 60 percent of Apple's orders. His projections were highlighted on Wednesday by Macotakara.

As for the pricing, the analyst expects Apple will position the new device in between the entry-level $149 iPod nano and $229 16-gigabyte iPod touch. He sees an average selling price of $199 as the sweet spot for an "iWatch."

If Apple were to sell more than 60 million "iWatch" units in the first year, it would be a number more than 4 times above the 14.8 million iPads Apple sold in that product's first 12 months. However, the iPad carried an entry level price of $499 in its first year, while Wanli expects the "iWatch" to cost less than half of that.

iWatch
Artist's rendition of purported Apple smartwatch. | Source: Yrving Torrealba


The analyst's expected launch window aligns with earlier rumors that pegged an Apple smart watch for a 2014 debut. It's been claimed that the new product will focus on biometrics, offering users feedback on health and activity by acting as a pedometer, heart rate monitor, and possibly more.

The new wearable device from Apple is rumored to feature either a 1.5- or 2-inch touchscreen panel. The device would enter a rapidly growing market that already features popular startups like Pebble, while major players such as Samsung, which is expected to launch a smart watch dubbed Galaxy Gear on Sept. 4, are also making moves.

Apple has even gone as far as to file for ownership of the "iWatch" name in a number of countries around the world, potentially signaling its plans to release such a product. The company has also made a number of key hires, including fitness expert Jay Blahnik, who consulted on Nike's FuelBand.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 112


    65M at $200 per watch is $13B in revenue. If we assume a 20% profit margin (somewhat less than Apple's average), that equals $2.6B. At a P/E ratio of 15x (higher, given that this would be seen as a growth segment), that's an extra $39B in market cap, or $40 - $45 per share. Pretty big.


     


    I doubt that Apple will achieve anywhere close to 65M.

  • Reply 2 of 112


    How can you project shipments of a product that doesn't exist yet?

  • Reply 3 of 112
    How can you project shipments of a product that will never exist?
  • Reply 4 of 112
    This rumor seems fake. But if it is real, maybe Apple should realize that people don't wear nor want watches anymore. Maybe they should start with 100,000 iWatches and see how it goes.
  • Reply 5 of 112
    Are there 65 million people left in the world who would wear a new watch? Neither of my kids have ever worn any of the watches I have bought them, and none of their friends do either. Unless this replaces their phones I don't see how this rumour is possible.
  • Reply 6 of 112
    How can you project shipments of a product that doesn't exist yet?
    So that when Apple doesn't sell that many, they can say they somehow failed. I do agree with $199 being a sweet spot price. I seem to remember Phil Schiller saying that when the iPod touch 8GB was $199.
  • Reply 7 of 112
    neilmneilm Posts: 598member
    And how can you project it to three significant figures?
  • Reply 8 of 112
    mhiklmhikl Posts: 471member
    I'm more interested in the little Volkswagen Slimesung is going to slap on the wrists of the world. We need more chuckles to lighten the day. 8-)
  • Reply 9 of 112
    Apple's new teleporter will be wrist mounted and link with satellites over head. You will speak your destination and be transported there. The new data centers were never for iTunes, they were to store the kiloquads of data that are required to disassemble your atoms and re assemble them at the destination.

    In related news, Apple buys several third world nations and flys its "flying saucer" headquarters there, totally bypassing us tax and DOJ efforts. Wall Street responds by tripling the stock value to 3000 per share, then in a big mood change, kills the stock totally.

    Apple responds by buying Wall Street and replacing everyone with one new Mac Pro.

    Just saying.
  • Reply 10 of 112

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by eldernorm View Post



    Apple's new teleporter will be wrist mounted and link with satellites over head. You will speak your destination and be transported there. The new data centers were never for iTunes, they were to store the kiloquads of data that are required to disassemble your atoms and re assemble them at the destination.



    In related news, Apple buys several third world nations and flys its "flying saucer" headquarters there, totally bypassing us tax and DOJ efforts. Wall Street responds by tripling the stock value to 3000 per share, then in a big mood change, kills the stock totally.



    Apple responds by buying Wall Street and replacing everyone with one new Mac Pro.



    Just saying.


    Now this was a good read ... :)

  • Reply 11 of 112

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by johnnyb0731 View Post


    How can you project shipments of a product that doesn't exist yet?



    or even a year they will start shipping... 

  • Reply 12 of 112
    wigbywigby Posts: 688member
    Not sure why so many have a problem understanding how Apple operates. They look at existing products and disrupt or create an entirely new market. The iWatch is obviously coming within a year or two. The key to success (which Samsung, Google, etc. will never understand) is making customers want the product they didn't even think they did. That sounds like every naysayer in this forum so I predict you will all be customers of this iWatch.

    Now how do they successfully do that? Apple needs to strike the right balance between form (jewelry) and function (connectivity). Since a wrist watch is a statement that you cannot hide in your pocket like a phone, it must be 60% jewelry and 40% iPhone peripheral. Apple has been in the digital lifestyle business for years but have not relied on anything like this before. They must sell the public on the iWatch as a fashion accessory before the technology. That is the only way to gain market penetration and win over all the people that think they don't want to wear a watch...until it becomes a fashion statement that also enhances your iPhone experience too.
  • Reply 13 of 112
    smiles77smiles77 Posts: 668member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by boriscleto View Post



    How can you project shipments of a product that will never exist?


     


    You'd be fooling yourself to believe an Apple wearable device (like that referred to above as iWatch) won't be released next year.


     


    Quote:

    Originally Posted by scotty321 View Post



    This rumor seems fake. But if it is real, maybe Apple should realize that people don't wear nor want watches anymore. Maybe they should start with 100,000 iWatches and see how it goes.




    Originally Posted by Mark Dodel View Post



    Are there 65 million people left in the world who would wear a new watch? Neither of my kids have ever worn any of the watches I have bought them, and none of their friends do either. Unless this replaces their phones I don't see how this rumour is possible.


     


    Funny that that's the very thing Tim Cook talked about at the D11 conference:


     


    "[Tim Cook] said that “the wrist is interesting,” but noted that it comes with his own challenges, as evidenced by the fact that many people of younger generations don’t wear watches anymore. “For something to work here, you first have to convince people that it’s so incredible, they want to wear it,” he said."

  • Reply 14 of 112
    MacProMacPro Posts: 18,166member
    eldernorm wrote: »
    Apple's new teleporter will be wrist mounted and link with satellites over head. You will speak your destination and be transported there. The new data centers were never for iTunes, they were to store the kiloquads of data that are required to disassemble your atoms and re assemble them at the destination.

    In related news, Apple buys several third world nations and flys its "flying saucer" headquarters there, totally bypassing us tax and DOJ efforts. Wall Street responds by tripling the stock value to 3000 per share, then in a big mood change, kills the stock totally.

    Apple responds by buying Wall Street and replacing everyone with one new Mac Pro.

    Just saying.

    Utopia!
  • Reply 15 of 112
    ppietrappietra Posts: 171member
    Clearly this guy is making wild speculations!
    That kind of revenue would represent about 30% of all watches sold in the world in value, and completely eclipse sales of other smartwatches, a market that no one knows where its going.
    The number of devices sold would represent about 40-50% of iPhone sales during the year, and since we can assume that it would require some recent iDevice to get the full experience it would also represent about 20% of all potential costumers in just the first year. That kind of market penetration would be unbelievable for something that probably needs another device and that people can live without.
  • Reply 16 of 112
    MacProMacPro Posts: 18,166member
    wigby wrote: »
    Not sure why so many have a problem understanding how Apple operates. They look at existing products and disrupt or create an entirely new market. The iWatch is obviously coming within a year or two. The key to success (which Samsung, Google, etc. will never understand) is making customers want the product they didn't even think they did. That sounds like every naysayer in this forum so I predict you will all be customers of this iWatch.

    Now how do they successfully do that? Apple needs to strike the right balance between form (jewelry) and function (connectivity). Since a wrist watch is a statement that you cannot hide in your pocket like a phone, it must be 60% jewelry and 40% iPhone peripheral. Apple has been in the digital lifestyle business for years but have not relied on anything like this before. They must sell the public on the iWatch as a fashion accessory before the technology. That is the only way to gain market penetration and win over all the people that think they don't want to wear a watch...until it becomes a fashion statement that also enhances your iPhone experience too.

    Only problem with your theory, which is. Good one, is people only feel fashion accessories are good if they are ludicrously expensive.
  • Reply 17 of 112
    mbchpmbchp Posts: 2member


    You just went full retard. Never go full retard.


     


    just saying.

  • Reply 18 of 112

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by boriscleto View Post



    How can you project shipments of a product that will never exist?


    That one is harder to grok.


     


    It is obvious that 'wearables' are the next trend down in personal consumer computing.


    Minimally an extension of a more complete 'compute platform' (be it cloud, a mobile device, or a local WiFi enabled platform (iTV)...


     


    Google has 'specced' out (pun intended), the 'high ground' (pun 2), in google glass.   It is apparent that is geek/nerd centric and is less likely for general consumer appeal, although, I think 'HUD' will become standard in many viewing environments (overlays on TV, comp Monitors, windshields), if not for anything else 'augmenting' based on your desires, the current 'view'  (in TV parlance, you may want the twitter feed running on the 'crawler'; we already get 'notification' on MacOSX and iOS... why not put who's calling my phone on my computer screen/TV screen?)


     


    Three things wearables will likely provide


    1) telemetry - bios... HR, pulse, eventually even critical diagnostics... ekg, blood sugar, BP


          in remote areas, the ability to store events and upload will greatly improve health care for chronic or acute issues... uploading to a care provider will be the norm in 'wellness/prevention' (better to detect MI precursors and warn the wearer, and even alert care givers of progressive symptoms, than a 100K heart attack)


    2) Location aware: Direction aware... Pedometer, routing, even detailed location like grocery store aisle ("PING:  SALE on your favorite Ice Cream... look left!")


    3) smart alerts/alarms... Like In Like Flint... having a more subtle alert system


     


    All of these are in the 'I don't think I'd like that mode.''   But for most of us... 40 years ago, most of us would say "I can't see a need to 'carry' a computer to check my email all the time."   or... "Why would I feel like I need to tweet my feelings about this rhubarb pie"


     


    The technology will drive the new social application.

  • Reply 19 of 112

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post





    Only problem with your theory, which is. Good one, is people only feel fashion accessories are good if they are ludicrously expensive.


    Not true... Fashion accessories are OF VALUE, if it makes OTHER PEOPLE seeing them on me, WANT TO BE ME, BECAUSE MY LIFE IS BETTER THAN THEIRS.


     


    It's not about expense... it's about value. Maybe Vanity, Definitely Ego/Narcissism... but it's a value statement.


     


    The iPod Shuffle is a classic 'must have'  accessory.   at $79 not expensive... almost like 'fashion jewelry' in that regard, but the function made other people want it as much as the form.  And Apple made it to be 'wearable'  so people could flaunt it as a brand affiliation (I'm not tech, but I Like Apple)

  • Reply 20 of 112

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by scotty321 View Post



    This rumor seems fake. But if it is real, maybe Apple should realize that people don't wear nor want watches anymore. Maybe they should start with 100,000 iWatches and see how it goes.


    Please leave this forum.

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