ABC, WSJ bloggers explain Apple's record iPhone launch numbers are bad news

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  • Reply 61 of 145
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,686member
    addicted44 wrote: »
    Really? What specs? Heck, the Galaxy S4 barely surpassed the year old iPhone5 when it was released a month ago.

    The iPhone 5s absolutely crushes the latest Androids. Crushes them so bad that Samsung went out and released a press statement Osborning their current product ("Hey, we will have 64 bit soon too!!!").

    Yes. The iPhone 5S crushes the competition. Great Anandtech article on the issue.
  • Reply 62 of 145
    For some time now I've noticed articles in WSJ which seem to target Apple for the apparent reason of discrediting their products and questioning the value of Apple to investors. The article reported on here is perhaps the most egregious of this behavior yet. I keep wondering what is in this practice for WSJ.
  • Reply 63 of 145

    That other guy is just nuts...

  • Reply 64 of 145
    You know what would be refreshing? An analyst who mans up and says, "The numbers are very impressive and I really underestimated the demand as well as supply."

    They might find observers a lot more forgiving if they just admitted to error rather than trying to excuse it.
  • Reply 65 of 145
    So do these analysts slam every single other company that merely refreshes its product line rather than creating entirely new lines every two years? God forbid that Exxon should still be focusing on petro products! And GM, what nerve to continue pushing cars! The horror!
  • Reply 66 of 145
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,686member
    serendip wrote: »
    I believe Munster got confirmation that the 9m number includes channel build up but Apple clearly didn't sell 9m into the inventory channels.

    Here are some constraints...

    Total sales = 5s sell through 5c sell through 5s inventory buildup 5c inventory buildup
    5s inventory buildup 5c inventory buildup = 10m (from this article "without selling a single device")

    Sell in numbers == sell through numbers if the products are sold out. You can't build up inventory if everything is sold immediately. Given that's the case with the iphone5s we can conclude that the 10m in channel inventory that Apple could report "without selling a single device" is actually considerably smaller since there is no channel inventory for the 5s (5s inventory buildup = 0). In addition you'd have to consider that the 5s is selling significantly more then the 5c so if Apple's channel inventory is 10m for 4 weeks you'd have to think that 7-8m of that inventory belongs to the 5s of which there is no channel build up (5s inventory buildup = 7/8m). The 5c also experienced shortages over the weekend so the 2-3m left that could be attributed to the channel buildup of the 5c will be eaten up there as well. So say 1-1.5m ended up filling the 5c channel inventory. Sell through would then be around 7.5-8m.

    I don't think Munster is that far off actually.

    You could reformat that. Apple tends to leave supply constrained quarters with 1-2 weeks of inventory. And they have to build up to that.

    I'm thinking about 1m is 5C inventory. It's also supply constrained - i.e. back orders for the 5C.

    So I get to agree with sentiment in this thread and rubbish DED at the same time.

    And I'm happy because my options look good.
  • Reply 67 of 145
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by FjordPrefect View Post

    Cannold worries, "hasn%u2019t Apple seen how the competition makes fun of these events in commercials?"



    Really? Really?? Really???



    Mr. Cannold, do you not get that Apple DOESN'T CARE that their competitors make fun of them and, in fact, it's actually great advertising for them? Apple doesn't hire these people to sit outside of their stores all night long, they just do it - it's not like Apple can stop people from getting excited about their products. Samsung and Microsoft wish to God they could have the kind of allure Apple does. All of the parodies and fun-pokings can be summed up by these words: Jealous much?

     

    I never thought those ads were really making fun of Apple so much as they were making fun of Apple customers--a biomass of sheeple waiting in line to buy what they insist is an infinitely inferior gadget. Insulting the customers you are trying to woo is an interesting marketing strategy. People are still lining up, so it hasn't seemed to work very well for them.

    Anyway, don't let perceived stupidity bother you. These analysts know exactly what they are doing. Anything they say is diversioniary "filler" language, because they can't come out and say that they are trying to manipulate the market price. The analyses are meant to distract and manipulate investors--nothing more. That is what we should really be upset about.
  • Reply 68 of 145
    Pure unadulterated click bait. They've gotten all of us to read a article that really says nothing but 'what if?'.
  • Reply 69 of 145
    Ok so what he's saying is Apple with only a refresh iPhone with new iOS is not only scaring the competition but beating them in true sales.
    Also are moving forward step by step with initiatives , "they" don't understand, until it's to late!
    Wow factor of new products iMac and MacPro wether you like it or not these are pushing the standard thinking of computing.

    Ofcourse there's also the OS, Cloud and that forth leg.
  • Reply 70 of 145
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,926member
    serendip wrote: »
    I believe Munster got confirmation that the 9m number includes channel build up but Apple clearly didn't sell 9m into the inventory channels.

    Well unless he got confirmation from my father's brother's nephew's cousin's former roommate, it means nothing.
  • Reply 71 of 145
    So could a single point investor like myself bring suit or SEC investigation against these big shot valuation companies and their "analysts" for this intentional destruction of value? I feel like if you had a hot shot lawyer you could actually make a case? I mean it would cost a ton -- but still...
  • Reply 72 of 145
    drblankdrblank Posts: 3,385member
    You should read that ABC News story carefully, She prefaced the article saying "Now before Apple lovers pillory me and say that I have no idea what I am talking about, hear me out."

    Go ahead it's in the top portion of the article.

    That's how STUPID ABC NEWS is, they have to drag some STUPID IDIOT that probably spends her time in Obits.
  • Reply 73 of 145
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by flux8 View Post



    You know what would be refreshing? An analyst who mans up and says, "The numbers are very impressive and I really underestimated the demand as well as supply."



    They might find observers a lot more forgiving if they just admitted to error rather than trying to excuse it.

     

     

    For much of them to be honest?

    You are asking too much.

     

    How  many people lost their job and houses because of a paper published by Reinhart and Rogoff?

    To this day, they did not not say sorry.

  • Reply 74 of 145

    I don't understand why Apple gets bashed for not being "innovative". What about every other company?! What has Samsung come up with? Samsung tried to be "innovative" when it came out the the Galaxy Gear, and we see how that went. What has Google done that is "innovative" and game changing. 

     

    I guess everyone is so used to Apple having the best products that when they have not came out with a new category in a while analyst get upset.

  • Reply 75 of 145
    Apple is damned if they do, damned if they don't. Apparently.
  • Reply 76 of 145
    polymniapolymnia Posts: 1,080member
    This all makes perfect sense: apple wouldn't be making so much money if it wasn't making so much money!
  • Reply 77 of 145
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,926member
    polymnia wrote: »
    This all makes perfect sense: apple wouldn't be making so much money if it wasn't making so much money!

    I think it's "making analysts look bad with great numbers" is bad for Apple.
  • Reply 78 of 145
    They forgot to include Chicken Little's article - 'Why the sky falling would be bad for Apple, it's users, and pretty much everyone else.'
  • Reply 79 of 145
    polymniapolymnia Posts: 1,080member
    jungmark wrote: »
    I think it's "making analysts look bad with great numbers" is bad for Apple.

    I don't buy that spin.

    I was just making a funny with my post.

    I couldn't care less what analysts say and I do not believe them being embarrassed by apple will be bad for apple.

    You know what would be bad for apple? Having analysts be correct (and pleased with their predictions).
  • Reply 80 of 145
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,686member
    Good article from asuncion on shipped vs sold here.

    http://www.asymco.com/2012/05/28/shipped-and-sold-a-brief-introduction/

    He seems to indicate that apple leaves a quarter with 5% inventory. So unless we are assuming massive inventory build up for the 5C - which would be diverting from actual sell through in online orders - then most of the 9 million sales were sell through.
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