"At least two analysts have estimated that part of the big beat came from units of the iPhone 5C that have been shipped to other retailers – but not necessarily sold through to customers. Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray wrote on Monday that he believes about 3.5 million units of the iPhone 5C represent a “sell-in” to other retailers. Apple recognizes a sale when a customer buys a product through its own store and Web site, as well as when it ships a product to a retail partner. Munster noted that all versions of the iPhone 5C remain available on Apple’s Web site to ship within 24 hours of order."
So, Munster is strongly implying that nearly 40%, FORTY PERCENT of Apple's claimed "9 million sold" is actually inventory sitting on shelves? Ridiculous!!
And, to top that, he's saying that the new 5S and 5C combined, barely outsold the smashing success of the iPhone 5 release a year ago? Apple sold 5 million iPhone 5s at launch, Munster is saying only 5.5 million 5S/5C's actually sold this time. A mere 10% increase over the previous record-breaking launch? (As if that news alone wouldn't be worthy of celebrating.)
Judging only by the 5C plastic shell alone we can assume the 5C is a LOT easier to manufacture than the 5/5S. I can see Apple getting those out the door in greater quantity and having a longer time to prepare inventory for those (since they are much closer internally to the previous model).
But here's another consideration. When you introduce 5 different colors, managing inventory becomes much more challenging, unless you are making them "on demand", or very near to it. I think Apple has a good stock of 5Cs, but is also manufacturing more "to demand", meaning, ramping more on more popular colors.
Although the online shipping still shows 24 hours, many models of the 5C are no longer available for in store pickup. Yellow, Blue and Green in most configurations are no longer available here. So, what does that mean? Are stocks dwindling?
In any case, I think these analysts are doing everything possible to derail Apple's success. So the question is why?
In any case, I think these analysts are doing everything possible to derail Apple's success. So the question is why?
These guys are like defense attorneys, saying anything which may look plausible to try to get them off the hook of eating crow...and now back to your regular scheduled program on the Drama and Reality TV channel; "Apple is Doomed!"
so funny that AAPL dropped last week on news that they did not give sales numbers on 5C pre-sales. ridiculous! Now that the numbers are in and are over the top.. Now they are saying Apple cooked the numbers. Whatever. No scruples these analysts ... just fall on your sword already and be done with it! You were wrong and everyone knows it. Just like last year, and the year before that, and the year before that.
"At least two analysts have estimated that part of the big beat came from units of the iPhone 5C that have been shipped to other retailers – but not necessarily sold through to customers. Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray wrote on Monday that he believes about 3.5 million units of the iPhone 5C represent a “sell-in” to other retailers. Apple recognizes a sale when a customer buys a product through its own store and Web site, as well as when it ships a product to a retail partner. Munster noted that all versions of the iPhone 5C remain available on Apple’s Web site to ship within 24 hours of order."
Dumb reasoning, as Apple being able to ship within 24 hours on its website has nothing to do with retail partners. What, is Apple drop shipping from Walmart? Apple having lots of its own inventory has nothing to do with channel inventory.
The 5Cs may not be as elusive as past iPhones, but honestly, he thinks over 3,500,000 of them are sitting on Walmart et. al. shelves? Asinine.
When I look at that chart, I see "well, it could go up in the upcoming year, or it could go down. Also, it could stay they same."
I would love to see the sophisticated equations they have created for this graph which yields a y-o-y margin of error of 64%.
The stock could be be up $670 or down to $350 in a year from now. In other words, they have no clue nor much confidence in much of anything surrounding Apple in their built in equation. Neither positive or negative. worthless.
I just saw a listing of revisions of analyst price projections made this afternoon:
* Apple : Barclays raises target price to $540 from $525; rating overweight
* Apple : Canaccord Genuity raises price target to $560 from $550; rating buy
* Apple : Deutsche Bank raises price target to $575 from $480; rating buy
* Apple : Goldman Sachs raises price target to $560 from $530; rating buy
* Apple : Susquehanna raises to positive from neutral - Theflyonthewall.com
My favorite is the analyst (I think it was Munster) who has a target of $425 - yet rated the stock a 'hold'.
Huh? It's a 490. So why would you hold it if you expect it to drop to $425?
"Jefferies' Peter Misek is lowering his price target on Apple(Nasdaq: AAPL) from $450 to $425 today, while maintaining a Hold rating on the stock."
That makes absolutely no sense at all. Why in the world would you recommend holding a stock that's at $490 if you believe it's going to drop to $425? Of course, it's funny that his reasoning was "low supply due to touch sensor issues" which has been thoroughly debunked with their record shipments.
Comments
Old friend Gene Munster. http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/09/24/apples-big-iphone-beat-may-have-gotten-boost-from-unsold-5cs/
"At least two analysts have estimated that part of the big beat came from units of the iPhone 5C that have been shipped to other retailers – but not necessarily sold through to customers. Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray wrote on Monday that he believes about 3.5 million units of the iPhone 5C represent a “sell-in” to other retailers. Apple recognizes a sale when a customer buys a product through its own store and Web site, as well as when it ships a product to a retail partner. Munster noted that all versions of the iPhone 5C remain available on Apple’s Web site to ship within 24 hours of order."
So, Munster is strongly implying that nearly 40%, FORTY PERCENT of Apple's claimed "9 million sold" is actually inventory sitting on shelves? Ridiculous!!
And, to top that, he's saying that the new 5S and 5C combined, barely outsold the smashing success of the iPhone 5 release a year ago? Apple sold 5 million iPhone 5s at launch, Munster is saying only 5.5 million 5S/5C's actually sold this time. A mere 10% increase over the previous record-breaking launch? (As if that news alone wouldn't be worthy of celebrating.)
Judging only by the 5C plastic shell alone we can assume the 5C is a LOT easier to manufacture than the 5/5S. I can see Apple getting those out the door in greater quantity and having a longer time to prepare inventory for those (since they are much closer internally to the previous model).
But here's another consideration. When you introduce 5 different colors, managing inventory becomes much more challenging, unless you are making them "on demand", or very near to it. I think Apple has a good stock of 5Cs, but is also manufacturing more "to demand", meaning, ramping more on more popular colors.
Although the online shipping still shows 24 hours, many models of the 5C are no longer available for in store pickup. Yellow, Blue and Green in most configurations are no longer available here. So, what does that mean? Are stocks dwindling?
In any case, I think these analysts are doing everything possible to derail Apple's success. So the question is why?
In any case, I think these analysts are doing everything possible to derail Apple's success. So the question is why?
These guys are like defense attorneys, saying anything which may look plausible to try to get them off the hook of eating crow...and now back to your regular scheduled program on the Drama and Reality TV channel; "Apple is Doomed!"
so funny that AAPL dropped last week on news that they did not give sales numbers on 5C pre-sales. ridiculous! Now that the numbers are in and are over the top.. Now they are saying Apple cooked the numbers. Whatever. No scruples these analysts ... just fall on your sword already and be done with it! You were wrong and everyone knows it. Just like last year, and the year before that, and the year before that.
Dumb reasoning, as Apple being able to ship within 24 hours on its website has nothing to do with retail partners. What, is Apple drop shipping from Walmart? Apple having lots of its own inventory has nothing to do with channel inventory.
The 5Cs may not be as elusive as past iPhones, but honestly, he thinks over 3,500,000 of them are sitting on Walmart et. al. shelves? Asinine.
When I look at that chart, I see "well, it could go up in the upcoming year, or it could go down. Also, it could stay they same."
I would love to see the sophisticated equations they have created for this graph which yields a y-o-y margin of error of 64%.
The stock could be be up $670 or down to $350 in a year from now. In other words, they have no clue nor much confidence in much of anything surrounding Apple in their built in equation. Neither positive or negative. worthless.
My favorite is the analyst (I think it was Munster) who has a target of $425 - yet rated the stock a 'hold'.
Huh? It's a 490. So why would you hold it if you expect it to drop to $425?
ETA - I guess it was Misek, not Munster. Thanks, msuberly. Here's the link:
http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+PT+Change/Jefferies+Cuts+PT+on+Apple+(AAPL)+to+$425;+'Terrible'+Yields+on+Touch+Sensors+=+Lower+Shipments/8686014.html
"Jefferies' Peter Misek is lowering his price target on Apple(Nasdaq: AAPL) from $450 to $425 today, while maintaining a Hold rating on the stock."
That makes absolutely no sense at all. Why in the world would you recommend holding a stock that's at $490 if you believe it's going to drop to $425? Of course, it's funny that his reasoning was "low supply due to touch sensor issues" which has been thoroughly debunked with their record shipments.
Munster $640, Misek $425.
Here's the problem:
Huberty adjusts Apple's expected earnings per share for the fourth quarter of 2013 upward from $7.51 to $8.00,
while holding the line on the stock's 'Overweight' rating and $540.00 price target.
A predicted 6.5% rise in earnings (earnings, not sales!), provides an increase of 0% in predicted stock price. Bullshit.
I can at least believe someone is being honest if they think earnings and stock price are going down (or up), but her "adjustments" are bullshit.