I agree. I can't see any way that the 5C outsold the 5S. Several reasons:
1. The 5S is a big step up from the previous version. The 5C is largely last year's phone in a new case. While I don't doubt that a lot of people would want to buy it, I can't imagine that many people rushing out to grab one on opening weekend. People stand in line to buy the latest gadgets. They don't stand in line to buy last year's gadget.
2. The 64 GB model has accounted for 10-25% of sales of previous phones. Lack of a 64 GB 5C puts the 5S at an advantage.
3. The price difference is modest for people in most countries (or buying unsubsidized phones in the US).
Kuo is projecting that 25% more of the 5C were sold? I don't buy it.
However, the wild card is availability. A quick check this morning found few 5S phones in stock anywhere, but most stores had at least a couple of 5C models. So it's possible that the demand for the 5S really was 3 times higher than the 5C, but there just weren't enough to meet the demand. But that doesn't sound right, either. When the iPhone 5 came out, there were endless stories about the shortages, but those stories haven't appeared this time.
In the end, I don't believe Kuo knows, but, then, neither does anyone else outside of Apple.
Your caveat at the end could be what makes Kuo right. People may want the 5s in far larger quantities than we able to be sold. The 5C is unconstrained. I too am skeptical though. People usually want the latest and greatest in an evolving tech world. Especially with Touch ID on the new version.
I think MIng-Chi Kuo's prediction is based on him being tied in to the supply chain. He is likely estimating based on the amount of supplies suppliers have given to Apple. I for one believe his prediction is probably close to being accurate. It is true early adopters are likely opting for the 5S. However, there are plenty of people who were just waiting for a new phone until the new ones were released. It also makes sense that the supply chain for the 5S is constrained, while the 5C is more available.
The problem is that he doesn't know the entire supply chain. At best, he has contact with one piece of it. Cook highlighted the complexity of the supply chain earlier this year.
Simplest example. Let's say that Kuo knows one company which makes 5S cases and one which makes 5C cases. Each company told him that they shipped 4 M cases to Apple. That makes it sound like the two phones sold in similar quantities. But perhaps there are 3 suppliers for 5S cases, but only one for 5C cases. The actual numbers would be quite different than what Kuo projects.
Remember also that it was these supply chain 'sources' who said that the new phones would be severely constrained and that sales would be low because of that.
Your caveat at the end could be what makes Kuo right. People may want the 5s in far larger quantities than we able to be sold. The 5C is unconstrained. I too am skeptical though. People usually want the latest and greatest in an evolving tech world. Especially with Touch ID on the new version.
If that's the case, then the 5S could have sold 10 M or more on opening weekend. I'm skeptical of that, too.
I have trouble believing it independent web traffic analysis show a lot more 5S than 5C popping up. I guess one could argue that the 5C's aren't be used like the 5S but then I would doubt that, and one says that then one has to consider that all those trillion of Android-based apparently being activated per minute may actually exist. Seems unlikely to me.
Apple sold all its 5S's opening weekend. If sales if 9M were split, that would mean Apple initiated sales with only 4.5 M iPhone 5S's available. Do you think Apple would kick off sales of the 5S with fewer on hand than they sold 5's a year ago? I don't.
There's no way Apple had fewer than 5 M 5S's available to sell opening weekend. And probably they had more than that.
Probably Apple store sold way more 5S than 5C. But other retailers got small orders of 5S. Walmart sold a TON of 5C's in my area. They were out of stock in several colors. For the non-tech people its a really hot phone.
I didn't go to the Apple store to purchase my 5s. I went to Target, but their mobile store didn't open until 11. So I noticed the line at the AT&T store, which opened early just to sell the iPhone. They sold the last two 5s about three spots ahead of me. The two people in line in front of me were upgrading from 3Gs. They passed on the 5c's, which were still available (I was kinda surprised by that). So I walked over the the Radio Shack, which opened at 10 (it was about 9) and waited for them to open (all three stores are in the same mall, and there is no Apple store in my part of town). So when Radio Shack opened, I bought my 5s (they had a total of 16, I got the first one, AT&T had 50). While I was in the store, another customer from AT&T, where the 5c was easily available, came in to buy a 5s.
I know there is a audience for the 5c and I am sure that Apple sold a good amount of 5c's over the weekend, but I can't see it being about half of the 9 million sold.
Do we have to keep mentioning Android (or Samsung)? Please stop.
You are right, of course. I should use the usual code names. However, I could't help alluding to ridiculously big market share of crap for a country being relatively rich as Germany. They stand out by amount of crap.
I would believe that if people were in the market for the 5c on opening weekend, they would avoid the chaos at the Apple store and go straight to one of their many local retailers first. Especially Walmart who was discounting them at $79 instead of $99. Why stand in line at the Apple store; which is always crowded as it is ?
This theory jives with reports of lines at the Apple store just waiting for 5s and tons of 5c being sold at Walmart. Pretty sure there are a lot more Walmarts, Targets and best buys than there are Apple stores. If most of those are selling 5c over 5s then I can believe the more even split.
Ha, and now Gene Munster is out there saying Apple is going to adjust iPhone pricing in emerging markets. Sure that could happen but it seems to be another case of Munster getting something wrong and refusing to admit it.
Opening weekend iPhone 5s, 5c sales may have been split 50-50, insider says
SEE. SEE. I TOLD YOU. I TOLD you that they’d demand half and half. And when it comes out that it wasn’t, Apple will have “failed” in making the 5C at all.
Isn't it exactly the 5, with minor improvemets, but in a plastic case?
It's priced as the 5 would be priced.
It wouldn't be the first time Apple completely redesigned a case and retained the same product name, even confusingly so -- witness anyone trying to figure out which MacBook they own for support.
The iPhone 5 isn't being sold anywhere else is it?
I just don't get it. It's counter to Apple's usual simplicity of product labeling, and leads to a bunch of unnecessary suffixes. What harm comes from someone just saying they have an "iPhone 5" when referring to the 5c? Aside from the plastic case, it's virtually the exact same phone! And what happens when the iPhone 6 comes out? Will the 5c get bumped down to the "free" model and the 5s get repackaged in the plastic case and rebranded as the 5sc (or 5cs)? Talk about confusing.
Is this a prelude of things to come? Larger screens get a new model number? It's not the way Apple traditionally has done things.
When I went to the Apple store to buy my 5s, I asked the sales guy generally about their stock levels. He said they had 5c's "coming out their ears" and they received "at most 20" gold 5s's. Based on the activation and sales data I think it's a pretty good bet that virtually all the 5s's reported sold are in or in transit to customer's hands, but that there are a significant number of "sold" 5c's that are still sitting in AT&T, Verizon, etc stores and warehouses. Nine million sold in a weekend is still an amazing feet even if a million or two of those are 5c's that have been purchased by carriers but not yet by consumers.
As a (small time) AAPL shareholder Cook and team seem to be doing a solid job. Really impressed how well they implemented TouchID. I do wish they would have hit the $49 on contract / $499 off contract price point on the 5c. Even though it's only $50 there is a big psychological difference between $49 and $99 and by getting below the $500 mark off contract. I think we may see some unofficial discounts on the 5c in the coming months.
Yeah, I always give my kids 600 euro gifts for christmas.... not...
If you do, you got your priorities wrong in my opinion.
The previous poster was probably thinking of people purchasing their kids an iPhone 5C utilizing a subsidy, something that enough countries offer that it could indeed be a very strong Xmas choice. I already have 2 5Cs for my young daughters, but I don't plan on giving these to them until Xmas morning. Note, therefore, the phones are not yet activated, so they wouldn't be counted in any of the methodologies that utilize post-activation data. I wonder how many other 5C units are in a similar condition of limbo. (Sitting on MY shelf, as opposed to on resellers' shelves.)
Munster said that Tim Cook is a damn liar and that Apple sold only a little more than 6 million and the rest were sitting on the Apple retail store shelves. Munster said that those iPhones may get sold and maybe they won't. Munster is sure Apple is trying to fudge iPhone sales numbers to fool investors but he swore he wasn't going to let Apple get away with it. He says he's knows Apple's sales capabilities far better than Tim Cook and by Munster's exemplary understanding of Apple's distribution methods he surmised that his estimate was much more accurate than Tim Cook's exaggerated numbers.
Gene Munster went on TV to prove he was right and Apple was wrong and he knew Tim Cook couldn't prove him wrong. Munster went on to announce his predictions about Apple almost always turned out 100% correct. If he predicted Apple would sell 6 million iPhones then it wouldn't be possible for Apple to sell millions more. Wall Street believed him and Apple's share price momentum came to an immediate halt. As a result of Munster's "proof" Apple's share price still hasn't be able to get back over $500 and YTD Apple's share price is still in negative territory.
C is for color. Do I think it's different from last year's 5. Yes, yes I do. Do I care that it has same internals as the 5? No. Why does it matter. It looks and feels completely different than last years 5.
I agree. I can't see any way that the 5C outsold the 5S. Several reasons:
1. The 5S is a big step up from the previous version. The 5C is largely last year's phone in a new case. While I don't doubt that a lot of people would want to buy it, I can't imagine that many people rushing out to grab one on opening weekend. People stand in line to buy the latest gadgets. They don't stand in line to buy last year's gadget.
2. The 64 GB model has accounted for 10-25% of sales of previous phones. Lack of a 64 GB 5C puts the 5S at an advantage.
3. The price difference is modest for people in most countries (or buying unsubsidized phones in the US).
Kuo is projecting that 25% more of the 5C were sold? I don't buy it.
However, the wild card is availability. A quick check this morning found few 5S phones in stock anywhere, but most stores had at least a couple of 5C models. So it's possible that the demand for the 5S really was 3 times higher than the 5C, but there just weren't enough to meet the demand. But that doesn't sound right, either. When the iPhone 5 came out, there were endless stories about the shortages, but those stories haven't appeared this time.
In the end, I don't believe Kuo knows, but, then, neither does anyone else outside of Apple.
I don't know why there aren't endless stories about the shortage of iPhone 5S, but two things are clear:
(1) there is, in fact, such a shortage. Just try to order one, or be prepared to plan a visit the retail location of your choice just before opening every day until you succeed, and
(2) there have been endless stories about shortages of the fingerprint sensor
I truly hope that Apple is successful in ramping up production to meet demand. I look forward to hearing stories of that success as the weeks go by.
Ming-Chi Kuo might be able to predict new products, though he got the new MacBook Pro in June wrong, but is there any previous history to suggest he can predict specific iPhone model opening weekend sales?
No one can, because no one has a clue.
Yet, ratios like 9:1 and 8:1 have been trotted out, so why not 1:1.....
Comments
His most recent prediction on a new thinner Retina MacBook Pro model in June was incorrect. He needs to be held accountable for his misses too:
but then he would just be plain old Analyst, Ming, instead of honourable noted analyst Ming.
I agree. I can't see any way that the 5C outsold the 5S. Several reasons:
1. The 5S is a big step up from the previous version. The 5C is largely last year's phone in a new case. While I don't doubt that a lot of people would want to buy it, I can't imagine that many people rushing out to grab one on opening weekend. People stand in line to buy the latest gadgets. They don't stand in line to buy last year's gadget.
2. The 64 GB model has accounted for 10-25% of sales of previous phones. Lack of a 64 GB 5C puts the 5S at an advantage.
3. The price difference is modest for people in most countries (or buying unsubsidized phones in the US).
Kuo is projecting that 25% more of the 5C were sold? I don't buy it.
However, the wild card is availability. A quick check this morning found few 5S phones in stock anywhere, but most stores had at least a couple of 5C models. So it's possible that the demand for the 5S really was 3 times higher than the 5C, but there just weren't enough to meet the demand. But that doesn't sound right, either. When the iPhone 5 came out, there were endless stories about the shortages, but those stories haven't appeared this time.
In the end, I don't believe Kuo knows, but, then, neither does anyone else outside of Apple.
Your caveat at the end could be what makes Kuo right. People may want the 5s in far larger quantities than we able to be sold. The 5C is unconstrained. I too am skeptical though. People usually want the latest and greatest in an evolving tech world. Especially with Touch ID on the new version.
The problem is that he doesn't know the entire supply chain. At best, he has contact with one piece of it. Cook highlighted the complexity of the supply chain earlier this year.
Simplest example. Let's say that Kuo knows one company which makes 5S cases and one which makes 5C cases. Each company told him that they shipped 4 M cases to Apple. That makes it sound like the two phones sold in similar quantities. But perhaps there are 3 suppliers for 5S cases, but only one for 5C cases. The actual numbers would be quite different than what Kuo projects.
Remember also that it was these supply chain 'sources' who said that the new phones would be severely constrained and that sales would be low because of that.
If that's the case, then the 5S could have sold 10 M or more on opening weekend. I'm skeptical of that, too.
There's no way Apple had fewer than 5 M 5S's available to sell opening weekend. And probably they had more than that.
Just two cents.
I didn't go to the Apple store to purchase my 5s. I went to Target, but their mobile store didn't open until 11. So I noticed the line at the AT&T store, which opened early just to sell the iPhone. They sold the last two 5s about three spots ahead of me. The two people in line in front of me were upgrading from 3Gs. They passed on the 5c's, which were still available (I was kinda surprised by that). So I walked over the the Radio Shack, which opened at 10 (it was about 9) and waited for them to open (all three stores are in the same mall, and there is no Apple store in my part of town). So when Radio Shack opened, I bought my 5s (they had a total of 16, I got the first one, AT&T had 50). While I was in the store, another customer from AT&T, where the 5c was easily available, came in to buy a 5s.
I know there is a audience for the 5c and I am sure that Apple sold a good amount of 5c's over the weekend, but I can't see it being about half of the 9 million sold.
Do we have to keep mentioning Android (or Samsung)? Please stop.
You are right, of course. I should use the usual code names. However, I could't help alluding to ridiculously big market share of crap for a country being relatively rich as Germany. They stand out by amount of crap.
This theory jives with reports of lines at the Apple store just waiting for 5s and tons of 5c being sold at Walmart. Pretty sure there are a lot more Walmarts, Targets and best buys than there are Apple stores. If most of those are selling 5c over 5s then I can believe the more even split.
I want to know how many 4ssssss were sold.
Opening weekend iPhone 5s, 5c sales may have been split 50-50, insider says
SEE. SEE. I TOLD YOU. I TOLD you that they’d demand half and half. And when it comes out that it wasn’t, Apple will have “failed” in making the 5C at all.
Isn't it exactly the 5, with minor improvemets, but in a plastic case?
It's priced as the 5 would be priced.
It wouldn't be the first time Apple completely redesigned a case and retained the same product name, even confusingly so -- witness anyone trying to figure out which MacBook they own for support.
The iPhone 5 isn't being sold anywhere else is it?
I just don't get it. It's counter to Apple's usual simplicity of product labeling, and leads to a bunch of unnecessary suffixes. What harm comes from someone just saying they have an "iPhone 5" when referring to the 5c? Aside from the plastic case, it's virtually the exact same phone! And what happens when the iPhone 6 comes out? Will the 5c get bumped down to the "free" model and the 5s get repackaged in the plastic case and rebranded as the 5sc (or 5cs)? Talk about confusing.
Is this a prelude of things to come? Larger screens get a new model number? It's not the way Apple traditionally has done things.
When I went to the Apple store to buy my 5s, I asked the sales guy generally about their stock levels. He said they had 5c's "coming out their ears" and they received "at most 20" gold 5s's. Based on the activation and sales data I think it's a pretty good bet that virtually all the 5s's reported sold are in or in transit to customer's hands, but that there are a significant number of "sold" 5c's that are still sitting in AT&T, Verizon, etc stores and warehouses. Nine million sold in a weekend is still an amazing feet even if a million or two of those are 5c's that have been purchased by carriers but not yet by consumers.
As a (small time) AAPL shareholder Cook and team seem to be doing a solid job. Really impressed how well they implemented TouchID. I do wish they would have hit the $49 on contract / $499 off contract price point on the 5c. Even though it's only $50 there is a big psychological difference between $49 and $99 and by getting below the $500 mark off contract. I think we may see some unofficial discounts on the 5c in the coming months.
Please don't call Kuo an "Insider."
These figures are based on his analysis, not inside information.
Yeah, I always give my kids 600 euro gifts for christmas.... not...
If you do, you got your priorities wrong in my opinion.
The previous poster was probably thinking of people purchasing their kids an iPhone 5C utilizing a subsidy, something that enough countries offer that it could indeed be a very strong Xmas choice. I already have 2 5Cs for my young daughters, but I don't plan on giving these to them until Xmas morning. Note, therefore, the phones are not yet activated, so they wouldn't be counted in any of the methodologies that utilize post-activation data. I wonder how many other 5C units are in a similar condition of limbo. (Sitting on MY shelf, as opposed to on resellers' shelves.)
Thompson
Gene Munster went on TV to prove he was right and Apple was wrong and he knew Tim Cook couldn't prove him wrong. Munster went on to announce his predictions about Apple almost always turned out 100% correct. If he predicted Apple would sell 6 million iPhones then it wouldn't be possible for Apple to sell millions more. Wall Street believed him and Apple's share price momentum came to an immediate halt. As a result of Munster's "proof" Apple's share price still hasn't be able to get back over $500 and YTD Apple's share price is still in negative territory.
/s
I agree. I can't see any way that the 5C outsold the 5S. Several reasons:
1. The 5S is a big step up from the previous version. The 5C is largely last year's phone in a new case. While I don't doubt that a lot of people would want to buy it, I can't imagine that many people rushing out to grab one on opening weekend. People stand in line to buy the latest gadgets. They don't stand in line to buy last year's gadget.
2. The 64 GB model has accounted for 10-25% of sales of previous phones. Lack of a 64 GB 5C puts the 5S at an advantage.
3. The price difference is modest for people in most countries (or buying unsubsidized phones in the US).
Kuo is projecting that 25% more of the 5C were sold? I don't buy it.
However, the wild card is availability. A quick check this morning found few 5S phones in stock anywhere, but most stores had at least a couple of 5C models. So it's possible that the demand for the 5S really was 3 times higher than the 5C, but there just weren't enough to meet the demand. But that doesn't sound right, either. When the iPhone 5 came out, there were endless stories about the shortages, but those stories haven't appeared this time.
In the end, I don't believe Kuo knows, but, then, neither does anyone else outside of Apple.
I don't know why there aren't endless stories about the shortage of iPhone 5S, but two things are clear:
(1) there is, in fact, such a shortage. Just try to order one, or be prepared to plan a visit the retail location of your choice just before opening every day until you succeed, and
(2) there have been endless stories about shortages of the fingerprint sensor
I truly hope that Apple is successful in ramping up production to meet demand. I look forward to hearing stories of that success as the weeks go by.
Thompson
With that line up they might as well add Performa, Quadra, and LC to the names ... Or change their name to Apple-sung.
Ming-Chi Kuo might be able to predict new products, though he got the new MacBook Pro in June wrong, but is there any previous history to suggest he can predict specific iPhone model opening weekend sales?
No one can, because no one has a clue.
Yet, ratios like 9:1 and 8:1 have been trotted out, so why not 1:1.....