iPhone 5s supply declining in US while Apple's iPhone 5c remains fully stocked
Three weeks after the latest iPhones went on sale in the U.S., availability of the iPhone 5s has actually declined while Apple prepares for greater international roll-out.
Analyst Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray has been checking inventory levels of the iPhone 5s and iPhone 5c since they went on sale Sept. 21. In a note to investors provided to AppleInsider on Friday, he indicated that supply of the iPhone 5s went from 27 percent availability two weeks ago to 6 percent over the past week, based on a check of 60 Apple stores.
In addition, the number of stores that had at least one iPhone 5s SKU available dropped from 90 percent two weeks ago to 40 percent over the past week. Munster believes the shrinking supply is probably a result of Apple preparing for an international launch, with 51 new markets set to receive both the iPhone 5s and iPhone 5c by Nov. 1.
In another sign of demand, Munster has also been tracking resale value, and found that the entry-level 16-gigabyte iPhone 5s is currently selling at a 32 percent premium in the U.S.
The story is different for the iPhone 5c, which is selling at an 11 percent discount over its retail price. Munster's checks also found that the iPhone 5c remains well-stocked, and he expects that demand for the mid-level handset is about in-line with market expectations.
In comparison, Samsung's flagship Galaxy S4 currently sells for a 12 percent discount in the U.S., putting it about on par with Apple's iPhone 5c.
"We expect iPhone aftermarket prices should decrease as 5S supply catches up to demand and would consider the 5S fully stocked when the 5S is available to ship in a 24 hour lead time," Munster wrote.. Currently Apple's online store quotes iPhone 5S October lead times in Apple's 6 largest countries, and 24 hours for the 5C."
Analyst Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray has been checking inventory levels of the iPhone 5s and iPhone 5c since they went on sale Sept. 21. In a note to investors provided to AppleInsider on Friday, he indicated that supply of the iPhone 5s went from 27 percent availability two weeks ago to 6 percent over the past week, based on a check of 60 Apple stores.
In addition, the number of stores that had at least one iPhone 5s SKU available dropped from 90 percent two weeks ago to 40 percent over the past week. Munster believes the shrinking supply is probably a result of Apple preparing for an international launch, with 51 new markets set to receive both the iPhone 5s and iPhone 5c by Nov. 1.
Resale value of the iPhone 5s is currently 32% above market value in the U.S.
In another sign of demand, Munster has also been tracking resale value, and found that the entry-level 16-gigabyte iPhone 5s is currently selling at a 32 percent premium in the U.S.
The story is different for the iPhone 5c, which is selling at an 11 percent discount over its retail price. Munster's checks also found that the iPhone 5c remains well-stocked, and he expects that demand for the mid-level handset is about in-line with market expectations.
In comparison, Samsung's flagship Galaxy S4 currently sells for a 12 percent discount in the U.S., putting it about on par with Apple's iPhone 5c.
"We expect iPhone aftermarket prices should decrease as 5S supply catches up to demand and would consider the 5S fully stocked when the 5S is available to ship in a 24 hour lead time," Munster wrote.. Currently Apple's online store quotes iPhone 5S October lead times in Apple's 6 largest countries, and 24 hours for the 5C."
Comments
Here's a handy site that scrapes Apple's online store for availability based on color, capacity, carrier and zip code, in case anyone is interested.
http://iphone-check.herokuapp.com
I've bought two iPhone 5s' in the last couple of weeks, a white 32GB and a grey 32GB. Neither were in stock at my local AT&T store, but both shipped the next day and were received the same week. I understand that the gold model's availability is much more limited.
Plus it's comparatively a very poor deal against the 5s so I'd imagine a lot more people want the iPhone 5s.
I wonder what the sales split is between the 4s and 5c, that'd be an interesting chart.
Wait a second. The story last month was that Apple's numbers were exaggerated because they stuffed the channels with both models. But if the 5S only had a 27% availability, where were all the phones that got stuffed into the channels?
If his numbers are accurate, it's pretty good news - and says that they're continuing to sell them at a rapid clip.
iPhone C sold out = supply constraints, canibalizing 5S sales, lower margins
Did you read that somewhere?
I'd be interested to see the article.
[never mind... I see where you're going with this.]
Wait a second. The story last month was that Apple's numbers were exaggerated because they stuffed the channels with both models. But if the 5S only had a 27% availability, where were all the phones that got stuffed into the channels?
If his numbers are accurate, it's pretty good news - and says that they're continuing to sell them at a rapid clip.
There was no suggestion of channel stuffing the 5s, that sold out - all inventory that went into the channel was sold on to end customers so the 'shipped' and 'sold' figures are one in the same. The channel stuffing suggestion was all around the 5c.
I'll bet this is from where the analyst is pulling his numbers, and then passing it off with fancy language like 'channel checks.'
Why is it "comparatively a very poor deal" compared to the 5S? Because the case is plastic? Would you say the same thing if Apple had kept the 5 and reduced it $100? Why do people keep banging on about "year old tech". The iPhone 5 is still a damn good phone.
The fact that the iPhone 5c has good overall performance does not change the fact that it's year old tech and therefore cheaper and easier to produce.
I've frequently said that I feel the iPhone 5c should be $50 less to reflect the cheaper case, however that's by the by.
For $100 you get a LOT more for your money, from the fingerprint scanner through to the 64bit CPU the device is a far superior.
Now admittedly, for the here and now one could argue that the 5c is fast enough. But, in two years time when iOS 9 ships I can guarantee that the 64bit CPU in the 5s will make one hell of a difference.
There is nothing wrong with the 5c, it’s a solid little phone and I am sure it will make many people very happy. Usually I find that the middle option within Apple’s product lines offer the best overall value, but in this case, at least to my mind I feel it is overpriced and poor value compared to the 4s and the 5s in terms of the line up.
I'm amazed to see people posting here who STILL don't understand what was said and the significance of it. Munster never used the term channel stuffing and I don't believe he insinuated it either. He was trying to point out that any comparison between iPhone 5 launch numbers and combined iPhone 5C/5S (the magic 9 million) number wasn't valid because in his view, 3.5 million 5C units were not 'sold through', ie. actually paid for by an end customer, whereas all the iPhone 5 units were sold-through in the launch for that product.
Yet they are just guessing at this point. Who says Apple couldn't have sold 7 MM 5S on its first weekend?
First, how was 5c launch compared to last year's 4s sales?
Second I think 5c will be popular for the holidays year as the "new" model instead of last year's model.
First, how was 5c launch compared to last year's 4s sales?
Second I think 5c will be popular for the holidays year as the "new" model instead of last year's model.
Let's see if it hits $0 with a 2 year contract as a holiday promotion. Then it should be really popular as a gift for the younguns.
The channel stuffing was analysts refusing to admit their sales estimates were wrong. They predicted 6M, Apple announced 9M so the difference has to be channel stuffing. Because analysts can never be wrong and no one ever fact checks what they say or predict.
correct, their premise is the extra 3M was made up of 5c phones sitting on shelves rather than there being any extra demand.