I agree. Not only that, it can also help them move to where ever in the world they want.
This, plus the Arizona sapphire buy, the Upstate NY foundries, the "California" pride, the Mac Pro being made in the USA, comments from Cook -- We will see maybe the iPhone 7 or 8 being Made in the USA
I have a strong suspicion that we are reaching a technological and economic tipping point that will make highly automated manufacturing in the U.S. (and other high wage industrialized countries) competitive again. I expect a huge migration in factories (but sorry, not jobs) moving back from the far east into the U.S. Now if I can only figure out which robotics companies are going to feast on this bonanza so I could go long in their stock.
I have a strong suspicion that we are reaching a technological and economic tipping point that will make highly automated manufacturing in the U.S. (and other high wage industrialized countries) competitive again. I expect a huge migration in factories (but sorry, not jobs) moving back from the far east into the U.S. Now if I can only figure out which robotics companies are going to feast on this bonanza so I could go long in their stock.
You and me both. I agree. We will see some jobs come back/created by this, and higher paying ones, at that. It just will be far from a 1:1. Wall-E and his cousins will be the next wave of American manufacturing workers.
Guess I am fine with this. Those low wage manufacturing jobs were never coming back here. Will still be a net win for the US economy, even if relatively small.
Plus, no healthcare, labor laws, etc to contend with.
Throwing money at a problem is not the best solution.
What problem? How else are devices going to be made? with pixie dust? The main advantage Samsung has is its manufactering prowess. Apple is address that problem with $10B investments in the supply change. I expect even more in the future as units produced per year grows 20-30%
Right, money isn't ALWAYS the answer, but it often can help. And as sog35 has pointed out, this is the type of "problem" that money will help. It reduces Apple dependency on third parties. That is the Apple way. Do everything you can to not rely on others. Removes two things.
1. Revenue from Samsung as Apple is a large customer. Won't hurt Samsung initially, but could in the future.
2. Bottlenecks - I am sure that Apple is (a) sick of not having enough product at launch and (b) sick of all the leaks. By moving more in house, with fewer eyes, and all internal eyes at that, they can truly surprise again.
Honestly, I think the perception of lack of innovation and ho-hum keynotes are due to every last detail being leaked before hand. Chances are Apple's robots won't tweet blurry-cam shots of the iPhone 8...
Absolutely. WHAT on earth has GORE added to the mix to make Apple money? Is it a certain access? Apple doesn't need that anymore.
I know Jobs loved that idiot on the board whose company (INTUIT) made Quicken--yet Quicken for the Mac was NEVER as current as the WIndose versions--ever. I figure Jobs saw something else in him, a mentor, father-figure... don't know. But he was never able to get Quicken off the back foot. WHo else should go. Yes, Musk, and maybe some others who might be visionaries.
Apple rumor mill just released Apple will buy the utilities companies to supply the factory power and water to Apple owned equipments. The airplane and shipping companies that transport the Apple products, the airspace the workers got air from...Apple will also buy up all the media companies and fire all the analysts. Plus the US Social Security Dept that issue food stamps to the unemployed analysts, The Salvation Army who hands out used clothes and shoes to damn analysts.
I agree. Not only that, it can also help them move to where ever in the world they want.
This, plus the Arizona sapphire buy, the Upstate NY foundries, the "California" pride, the Mac Pro being made in the USA, comments from Cook -- We will see maybe the iPhone 7 or 8 being Made in the USA
I have a strong suspicion that we are reaching a technological and economic tipping point that will make highly automated manufacturing in the U.S. (and other high wage industrialized countries) competitive again. I expect a huge migration in factories (but sorry, not jobs) moving back from the far east into the U.S. Now if I can only figure out which robotics companies are going to feast on this bonanza so I could go long in their stock.
I think there are some high-skilled, well-paying jobs associated with robotic high-tech manufacturing/assembly/testing/packaging -- but not as many low-paying assembly-line jobs,
My late father-in-law operated a punch-press for 40 years in a US Steel factory outside of Pittsburgh. Those jobs are gone! I read recently that much of the assembly lines for Apple products are manned by people -- not because they are needed, but because the Chinese Government requires it... kinda' a national union.
IMO, the keys to bringing manufacturing back to the US include:
automated high-volume manufacturing
high-skilled jobs setting up and monitoring the automated manufacturing
making the automated manufacturing machines/lines, themselves
ability to reset manufacturing machines/lines in days or weeks rather than months
rigorously managed and controlled supply chain
There will be a lot fewer, but higher-paying, higher-skilled jobs directly involved in the manufacturing.
But, the fanout of the "support community" needed by automated manufacturing will replace the lost assembly-line jobs...
I mean, the restaurants, dry cleaners, real estate agents, plumbers, school teachers, super market clerks, gardeners, UPS delivery men, road construction workers, salesmen, web article writers...
I'll give you an example how high-tech fanout can affect a community;
IBM transferred me to a Job in Palo Alto in 1973. We looked at houses in the area, including the sleepy little town of Cupertino. We bought a little South of there in the Village of Saratoga. I could drive the 15 miles to my job in Palo Alto in 25 minutes during rush hour;
In 1978 we opened a Computer store in Sunnyvale. I could drive the 7 miles to/from the store in 12-15 minutes during rush hour.
Right in the middle, about 4 miles from home is Cupertino (and this little company called Apple).
Skip ahead to 1989 when we sold the stores.
Apple and Cupertino had grown exponentially... thousands of people and jobs fanned out in the communities surrounding Apple. Several freeways had been built or extended. Rush hour had also been extended to any time between 6:00 AM to 7:00 PM...
It took 45 minutes to drive the 7 miles from our home in Saratoga to our Sunnyvale store.
Apple didn't do any manufacturing in Cupertino but a massive fanout of non-Apple jobs grew to support the growing Apple business...
I would SWAG estimate that for every [relatively] high-paying Apple Job -- that were 10-20 lower-paying non-Apple jobs.
And, here's the real benefit... the opportunities provided (both within and without Apple) are essentially unlimited -- to those who can focus and apply themselves.
It was a matter of pride to us that many of our computer store employees went to work at Apple and became successful in their own right!
According to Leander Kahney, who wrote that new bio on Jony Ive, Apple moved manufacturing to China because they bent over backwards to do whatever Apple wanted. Kahney talked to a former Apple designer who worked for Ive and he said no American manufacturer was able to do the complex stuff they required at the volume they needed. When they approached Foxconn the CEO bent over backwards to do whatever Apple wanted.
I'd love it if Apple could find a way to keep this stuff secret. It sucked when an iPhone or iPad event comes up and 99% percent of what you see you've already seen on the internet for the past 6 months.
...I read recently that much of the assembly lines for Apple products are manned by people -- not because they are needed, but because the Chinese Government requires it... kinda' a national union.
According to Leander Kahney, who wrote that new bio on Jony Ive, Apple moved manufacturing to China because they bent over backwards to do whatever Apple wanted. Kahney talked to a former Apple designer who worked for Ive and he said no American manufacturer was able to do the complex stuff they required at the volume they needed. When they approached Foxconn the CEO bent over backwards to do whatever Apple wanted.
I'd love it if Apple could find a way to keep this stuff secret. It sucked when an iPhone or iPad event comes up and 99% percent of what you see you've already seen on the internet for the past 6 months.
I think there are some high-skilled, well-paying jobs associated with robotic high-tech manufacturing/assembly/testing/packaging -- but not as many low-paying assembly-line jobs,
My late father-in-law operated a punch-press for 40 years in a US Steel factory outside of Pittsburgh. Those jobs are gone! I read recently that much of the assembly lines for Apple products are manned by people -- not because they are needed, but because the Chinese Government requires it... kinda' a national union.
IMO, the keys to bringing manufacturing back to the US include:
automated high-volume manufacturing
high-skilled jobs setting up and monitoring the automated manufacturing
making the automated manufacturing machines/lines, themselves
ability to reset manufacturing machines/lines in days or weeks rather than months
rigorously managed and controlled supply chain
There will be a lot fewer, but higher-paying, higher-skilled jobs directly involved in the manufacturing.
But, the fanout of the "support community" needed by automated manufacturing will replace the lost assembly-line jobs...
I mean, the restaurants, dry cleaners, real estate agents, plumbers, school teachers, super market clerks, gardeners, UPS delivery men, road construction workers, salesmen, web article writers...
I'll give you an example how high-tech fanout can affect a community;
IBM transferred me to a Job in Palo Alto in 1973. We looked at houses in the area, including the sleepy little town of Cupertino. We bought a little South of there in the Village of Saratoga. I could drive the 15 miles to my job in Palo Alto in 25 minutes during rush hour;
In 1978 we opened a Computer store in Sunnyvale. I could drive the 7 miles to/from the store in 12-15 minutes during rush hour.
Right in the middle, about 4 miles from home is Cupertino (and this little company called Apple).
Skip ahead to 1989 when we sold the stores.
Apple and Cupertino had grown exponentially... thousands of people and jobs fanned out in the communities surrounding Apple. Several freeways had been built or extended. Rush hour had also been extended to any time between 6:00 AM to 7:00 PM...
It took 45 minutes to drive the 7 miles from our home in Saratoga to our Sunnyvale store.
Apple didn't do any manufacturing in Cupertino but a massive fanout of non-Apple jobs grew to support the growing Apple business...
I would SWAG estimate that for every [relatively] high-paying Apple Job -- that were 10-20 lower-paying non-Apple jobs.
And, here's the real benefit... the opportunities provided (both within and without Apple) are essentially unlimited -- to those who can focus and apply themselves.
It was a matter of pride to us that many of our computer store employees went to work at Apple and became successful in their own right!
Seems a lot of people suspected that I did not welcome the prospect of large scale highly automated manufacturing growing by leaps and bounds in the U.S. I am excited by the possibility, I only mentioned the jobs angle because there are folks who will expect hundreds of thousands of assembly line jobs will be created. No they won't, but it's still a huge net plus for the U.S. because of reasons like you laid out.
Here's the thing though. If robotic manufacturing explodes as we hope in this country, there won't be enough locally trained engineers and skilled technicians to oversee those factories. We will need to make sure the educational system and skilled immigration programs are up to the job.
Second, this will contribute to the further bifurcation of the economy into a higher income sector of capital owners and highly skilled, knowledge-based workers and a vast lower income sector that will make up the rest of society who sell man-hours not knowledge to make a living. In other words there will be people whose job involve pushing the buttons that make machines run, there will be people whose job is to make sure the machines run when the button is pushed, and there will be people who own the button (and the machines that they run). Your prospects in life depend on who you are and what you do relative to the button.
This is probably fairly huge. By being the "procurement specialists" Apple will be more flexible with their manufacturers -- being able to replace them quicker, and have larger scales on their purchases as the manufacturers aren't procuring (of course). It also means they are going to be able to have more profits, or be able to pay better. IF apple choose to PAY BETTER, that means they've got more pull in the market (they drop orders for others before Apple).
Seems like Apple is looking at being able to dominate procurement.
ALSO, this may have an impact on moving more production back to the USA because the supply-chain is more of an issue in insourcing than are wages. It might mean that Apple is more serious about "made in the USA" than a cynical person might think.
Comments
I agree. Not only that, it can also help them move to where ever in the world they want.
This, plus the Arizona sapphire buy, the Upstate NY foundries, the "California" pride, the Mac Pro being made in the USA, comments from Cook -- We will see maybe the iPhone 7 or 8 being Made in the USA
I have a strong suspicion that we are reaching a technological and economic tipping point that will make highly automated manufacturing in the U.S. (and other high wage industrialized countries) competitive again. I expect a huge migration in factories (but sorry, not jobs) moving back from the far east into the U.S. Now if I can only figure out which robotics companies are going to feast on this bonanza so I could go long in their stock.
True, not even an Apple Store there. Closest is Belfast.
I have a strong suspicion that we are reaching a technological and economic tipping point that will make highly automated manufacturing in the U.S. (and other high wage industrialized countries) competitive again. I expect a huge migration in factories (but sorry, not jobs) moving back from the far east into the U.S. Now if I can only figure out which robotics companies are going to feast on this bonanza so I could go long in their stock.
You and me both. I agree. We will see some jobs come back/created by this, and higher paying ones, at that. It just will be far from a 1:1. Wall-E and his cousins will be the next wave of American manufacturing workers.
Guess I am fine with this. Those low wage manufacturing jobs were never coming back here. Will still be a net win for the US economy, even if relatively small.
Plus, no healthcare, labor laws, etc to contend with.
Apple's finger points to the moon; the stock analysts stare at the finger.
Bodhi Svaha.
Throwing money at a problem is not the best solution.
Quote:
Throwing money at a problem is not the best solution.
What problem? How else are devices going to be made? with pixie dust? The main advantage Samsung has is its manufactering prowess. Apple is address that problem with $10B investments in the supply change. I expect even more in the future as units produced per year grows 20-30%
Right, money isn't ALWAYS the answer, but it often can help. And as sog35 has pointed out, this is the type of "problem" that money will help. It reduces Apple dependency on third parties. That is the Apple way. Do everything you can to not rely on others. Removes two things.
1. Revenue from Samsung as Apple is a large customer. Won't hurt Samsung initially, but could in the future.
2. Bottlenecks - I am sure that Apple is (a) sick of not having enough product at launch and (b) sick of all the leaks. By moving more in house, with fewer eyes, and all internal eyes at that, they can truly surprise again.
Honestly, I think the perception of lack of innovation and ho-hum keynotes are due to every last detail being leaked before hand. Chances are Apple's robots won't tweet blurry-cam shots of the iPhone 8...
I know Jobs loved that idiot on the board whose company (INTUIT) made Quicken--yet Quicken for the Mac was NEVER as current as the WIndose versions--ever. I figure Jobs saw something else in him, a mentor, father-figure... don't know. But he was never able to get Quicken off the back foot. WHo else should go. Yes, Musk, and maybe some others who might be visionaries.
Get in ...Ben Bernanke...
Surely you jest.
I think there are some high-skilled, well-paying jobs associated with robotic high-tech manufacturing/assembly/testing/packaging -- but not as many low-paying assembly-line jobs,
My late father-in-law operated a punch-press for 40 years in a US Steel factory outside of Pittsburgh. Those jobs are gone! I read recently that much of the assembly lines for Apple products are manned by people -- not because they are needed, but because the Chinese Government requires it... kinda' a national union.
IMO, the keys to bringing manufacturing back to the US include:
There will be a lot fewer, but higher-paying, higher-skilled jobs directly involved in the manufacturing.
But, the fanout of the "support community" needed by automated manufacturing will replace the lost assembly-line jobs...
I mean, the restaurants, dry cleaners, real estate agents, plumbers, school teachers, super market clerks, gardeners, UPS delivery men, road construction workers, salesmen, web article writers...
I'll give you an example how high-tech fanout can affect a community;
IBM transferred me to a Job in Palo Alto in 1973. We looked at houses in the area, including the sleepy little town of Cupertino. We bought a little South of there in the Village of Saratoga. I could drive the 15 miles to my job in Palo Alto in 25 minutes during rush hour;
In 1978 we opened a Computer store in Sunnyvale. I could drive the 7 miles to/from the store in 12-15 minutes during rush hour.
Right in the middle, about 4 miles from home is Cupertino (and this little company called Apple).
Skip ahead to 1989 when we sold the stores.
Apple and Cupertino had grown exponentially... thousands of people and jobs fanned out in the communities surrounding Apple. Several freeways had been built or extended. Rush hour had also been extended to any time between 6:00 AM to 7:00 PM...
It took 45 minutes to drive the 7 miles from our home in Saratoga to our Sunnyvale store.
Apple didn't do any manufacturing in Cupertino but a massive fanout of non-Apple jobs grew to support the growing Apple business...
I would SWAG estimate that for every [relatively] high-paying Apple Job -- that were 10-20 lower-paying non-Apple jobs.
And, here's the real benefit... the opportunities provided (both within and without Apple) are essentially unlimited -- to those who can focus and apply themselves.
It was a matter of pride to us that many of our computer store employees went to work at Apple and became successful in their own right!
I'd love it if Apple could find a way to keep this stuff secret. It sucked when an iPhone or iPad event comes up and 99% percent of what you see you've already seen on the internet for the past 6 months.
...I read recently that much of the assembly lines for Apple products are manned by people -- not because they are needed, but because the Chinese Government requires it... kinda' a national union.
Key elements of hiring in China (from a Canadian web site): http://www.tradecommissioner.gc.ca/eng/document.jsp?did=132635
According to Leander Kahney, who wrote that new bio on Jony Ive, Apple moved manufacturing to China because they bent over backwards to do whatever Apple wanted. Kahney talked to a former Apple designer who worked for Ive and he said no American manufacturer was able to do the complex stuff they required at the volume they needed. When they approached Foxconn the CEO bent over backwards to do whatever Apple wanted.
I'd love it if Apple could find a way to keep this stuff secret. It sucked when an iPhone or iPad event comes up and 99% percent of what you see you've already seen on the internet for the past 6 months.
The secret word for the day is "robots".
I think there are some high-skilled, well-paying jobs associated with robotic high-tech manufacturing/assembly/testing/packaging -- but not as many low-paying assembly-line jobs,
My late father-in-law operated a punch-press for 40 years in a US Steel factory outside of Pittsburgh. Those jobs are gone! I read recently that much of the assembly lines for Apple products are manned by people -- not because they are needed, but because the Chinese Government requires it... kinda' a national union.
IMO, the keys to bringing manufacturing back to the US include:
There will be a lot fewer, but higher-paying, higher-skilled jobs directly involved in the manufacturing.
But, the fanout of the "support community" needed by automated manufacturing will replace the lost assembly-line jobs...
I mean, the restaurants, dry cleaners, real estate agents, plumbers, school teachers, super market clerks, gardeners, UPS delivery men, road construction workers, salesmen, web article writers...
I'll give you an example how high-tech fanout can affect a community;
IBM transferred me to a Job in Palo Alto in 1973. We looked at houses in the area, including the sleepy little town of Cupertino. We bought a little South of there in the Village of Saratoga. I could drive the 15 miles to my job in Palo Alto in 25 minutes during rush hour;
In 1978 we opened a Computer store in Sunnyvale. I could drive the 7 miles to/from the store in 12-15 minutes during rush hour.
Right in the middle, about 4 miles from home is Cupertino (and this little company called Apple).
Skip ahead to 1989 when we sold the stores.
Apple and Cupertino had grown exponentially... thousands of people and jobs fanned out in the communities surrounding Apple. Several freeways had been built or extended. Rush hour had also been extended to any time between 6:00 AM to 7:00 PM...
It took 45 minutes to drive the 7 miles from our home in Saratoga to our Sunnyvale store.
Apple didn't do any manufacturing in Cupertino but a massive fanout of non-Apple jobs grew to support the growing Apple business...
I would SWAG estimate that for every [relatively] high-paying Apple Job -- that were 10-20 lower-paying non-Apple jobs.
And, here's the real benefit... the opportunities provided (both within and without Apple) are essentially unlimited -- to those who can focus and apply themselves.
It was a matter of pride to us that many of our computer store employees went to work at Apple and became successful in their own right!
Seems a lot of people suspected that I did not welcome the prospect of large scale highly automated manufacturing growing by leaps and bounds in the U.S. I am excited by the possibility, I only mentioned the jobs angle because there are folks who will expect hundreds of thousands of assembly line jobs will be created. No they won't, but it's still a huge net plus for the U.S. because of reasons like you laid out.
Here's the thing though. If robotic manufacturing explodes as we hope in this country, there won't be enough locally trained engineers and skilled technicians to oversee those factories. We will need to make sure the educational system and skilled immigration programs are up to the job.
Second, this will contribute to the further bifurcation of the economy into a higher income sector of capital owners and highly skilled, knowledge-based workers and a vast lower income sector that will make up the rest of society who sell man-hours not knowledge to make a living. In other words there will be people whose job involve pushing the buttons that make machines run, there will be people whose job is to make sure the machines run when the button is pushed, and there will be people who own the button (and the machines that they run). Your prospects in life depend on who you are and what you do relative to the button.
EnergyStar.
This is probably fairly huge. By being the "procurement specialists" Apple will be more flexible with their manufacturers -- being able to replace them quicker, and have larger scales on their purchases as the manufacturers aren't procuring (of course). It also means they are going to be able to have more profits, or be able to pay better. IF apple choose to PAY BETTER, that means they've got more pull in the market (they drop orders for others before Apple).
Seems like Apple is looking at being able to dominate procurement.
ALSO, this may have an impact on moving more production back to the USA because the supply-chain is more of an issue in insourcing than are wages. It might mean that Apple is more serious about "made in the USA" than a cynical person might think.
EnergyStar.
He used to be on their board of directors.
Good to know that he is still alive rather than merely serving as a foil for Global Warming Deniers.
Oh, EnergyStar’s? I didn’t know that. I just meant he’s probably the key pusher behind Apple’s environmental whatzahoozits.
I can see Apple buying up the total production of a certain rare earth metal and having first dibs on the supply...
THEN I can see Samsung copying Apple by trying to corner the market of something like Silicon... and yes, I know where Silicon comes from...