The Market movers drove up the hype on the stock to run up its price to a point where they knew it could not go any higher and then began shorting the hell out of if. The fast way to make money on Wall Street is to short a stock then start putting out bad news. Stocks fall far faster then they raise, and when it starts falling investment company shoot first and ask questions later and this is exactly what happen here. You can look at any number of stocks which saw skyrocketing increases in a short period of time.
And the hilarious thing is that not only 'uninformed' investors got burned, you have supposedly professional hedge fund managers who got caught holding the bag big time when AAPL stalled then plunged back to sane levels. Then they throw hissy fits and demand that Apple buy their shares back at artificially inflated prices. Talk to the hand, replied Tim Cook, to his credit. Ha ha, hell hath no fury like a hedge fund manager scorned.
The posting world is full of your Apple fanboy posts
I had already made up my mind earlier, but this post can be used as a clincher for those who don’t believe my explanation or are still on the fence.
The good Constable posts sarcastically most of the time. That’s why the content of his posts looks the way it does. He just doesn’t delineate it with quotes, /s, or ¡.
Really, Odo, you should. Please do. The number of people you’ve had on your case for misinterpretations (including me) is staggering. You’d solve that by making sure we know how you’re saying what you’re saying.
They suckered you into a fairytale bubble of a self satisfied, sure-thing investment dream which popped because sanity prevailed.
I can’t wait for Amazon to collapse like a dying star.
Although the "AAPL goes to $1,000" crowd clearly were trolls, going forward ALL businesses will be faced with profitability and growth challenges because of massive demographic shifts at hand. To wit:
"Current UN projections show a continued increase in population in the near future (but a steady decline in the population growth rate), with the global population expected to reach between 8.3 and 10.9 billion by 2050.[11][12] UN Population Division estimates for the year 2150 range between 3.2 and 24.8 billion;[13] mathematical modeling supports the lower estimate."
Fewer customers and older customers present a very particular set of challenges, one which Apple will address with medical, artificial intelligence and robotic devices. You can see Google (with their autonomous vehicles) beginning to approach this also.
While I believe AAPL shares have considerable upside, I'm compelled to note that this article ignores a quite valid factor contributing to the lack of enthusiasm for AAPL stock among investors: the company's profit growth absolutely stalled, beginning with the December quarter of 2012, and has yet to recover.
With respect to the 2008 gyrations, this article also tendentiously ignores yet another legitimate factor: the 2008-2009 financial crisis, which severely affected the price of nearly all equity securities. With the world economy sinking into a deep recession, it was only natural that investors would flee from stocks of companies with a luxury or premium brand reputation.
Bottom line: the market is not as irrational as Mr. Dilger would have us believe. Stock prices ultimately are based on profits, not revenues. Unless AAPL can restore its ability to grow profits, then its stock price will not be able to sustain an upward trajectory.
Although the "AAPL goes to $1,000" crowd clearly were trolls, going forward ALL businesses will be faced with profitability and growth challenges because of massive demographic shifts at hand. To wit:
"Current UN projections show a continued increase in population in the near future (but a steady decline in the population growth rate), with the global population expected to reach between 8.3 and 10.9 billion by 2050.[11][12] UN Population Division estimates for the year 2150 range between 3.2 and 24.8 billion;[13] mathematical modeling supports the lower estimate."
Fewer customers and older customers present a very particular set of challenges, one which Apple will address with medical, artificial intelligence and robotic devices. You can see Google (with their autonomous vehicles) beginning to approach this also.
Color me a troll then, I had high hopes of seeing $1000 and still think the reasons AAPL took a dive was nothing whatsoever to with Apple. Luckiliy I wasn't buying on the way up, just holding on.
That said, I'm more than happy with where my shares are now but obviously would like them to climb back up. The most important thing though, is for Tim to keep doing what Tim is doing and I am sure he will. I think 2014 will be a wonderful year for Apple and AAPL baring catastrophes beyond their control such as extremist politicians trying wreck the economy for their own personal agenda. I say this not to start a political discussion, just to point out Wall Street isn't the only thing to worry about.
I don't think demographics are anything for Apple to worry about to be honest. They focus on the higher end not the volume. But that's another discussion ...
The claim by Constable Odo that "mom and pop investors" were suckered into buying $700 shares of Apple is just absurd. When stocks are at that price, most purchases and sales are made by institutions, not "mom and pop investors." The question is, how did these intelligent investors running large portfolios fail in knowing that Apple share price would fall?
The answer, if you look at it, is clear. The rapid rise of Apple stock made the hedge fund managers feel Apple stock was going to drop like a rock. They bought, betting the stock would fall and they could make money on that fall by a certain date. When it was clear the stock wasn't going to drop, they sold massive amounts of shares. Availability lowered price, and the wimps of Wall Street simply followed this massive stock manipulation. As soon as Apple stock reached a price level the hedgers needed, the drop slowed.
But by this time, smaller investors were terrified and sold their smaller investments, adding to the drop. So the entire thing was nothing more than massive manipulation by hedge fund managers followed later by the sheeple. Hedge funds, nothing more than gambling, should be illegal.
Looking at your 5-year chart, it is easy to see that excluding the bubble of 2012, Apple share prices are charting a continuous rise. It should also be noted that due to stock market manipulation, share price often has little or no direct relation to the actual value of a stock.
I can’t wait for Amazon to collapse like a dying star.
Unfortunately you're going to be waiting a long time. Though Amazon loses money it is not because business is slow, they're doing a ton of business but at low margins.
Just ignore him. He's been sounding like he's off his meds since 2012.
Unfortunately, losing money does strange things to some people.
Seems like a good time for a friendly public reminder about the block feature in this forum... Simply hover over a user’s name to gain access to the "Block Member" function :-À
12 , 19 , 34 , 56 -> ...... what is the next number in that sequence?
Would you pay $1,000,000 for a company making $12,000 a year? Of course not. What about one making $56,000 a year? Still no.
Adding six 0's to the end of the above number, why would a company making $56 billion a year be valued at $1,000 billion dollars?
Part of the driver was the sequence above, those were Apple's profits from 2009 to 2012. Looking at that trend in rising profits, if you continued on that trend it would only be a few years till you were making over $100bil a year. Paying a trillion starts to sound almost reasonable...
Answer:
12, 19, 34, 56 -> 50
Once people saw Apples trajectory slowing, the trillion dollar speculation died down quickly and a lot of value was sucked out of Apple shares. Apple made less profit in 2013 than they did in 2012. Steve Jobs' 'ta-da' effect of lowballing numbers so they could wildly exceed them is something generally allowed by smaller non-factor companies and usually results in free marketing with positive headlines. Apple's success grew it to where it was nowhere near a "non-factor" company. That didn't change Steve's behavior and that in large part burned a lot of investors. Everyone from Wall Street to fans were expecting the 'ta-da' that would allow the profit growth to continue. A good article on that in reference to Zaky and a relatively positive outlook on Apple can be found here:
Apple obviously needs to reverse the trend of falling profits and start increasing profits again if it is going to reach a market cap of $1 tril. Not that that is really a goal so much as just 'increasing market cap' is. I like the current upward trend in Apple and they have a very solid lineup. The iPad air is tearing things up:
Keep in mind market cap is a valuation based on the existing financials and Apple is still (currently) primarily a hardware company. To go from a $500 bil to $1000 bil market cap they would need to literally start selling twice as many products (yah yah not quite with overhead/R&D/expenses etc but essentially double).
That is a pretty tall order especially as pressure on margins continue relentlessly (Apple made less profits in 2013 despite selling more devices and having record sales because they made less on each sale)
Wall Street appears both positive, and realistically so, on Apple and Tim Cook gives way better guidance than Steve. Instead of giving one lowball number and saying 'ta-da' we beat that by 50%!!!!! every quarter, Apple is now giving a range- including a low and high target. As long as Apple doesn't get in the game of trying to lowball the high target for the mystery surprise effect investors should have a much more pleasant ride.
So many analysts suckering mom and pop investors and Apple shareholders into believing Apple was going to be the first trillion dollar market cap company.
Yes, and now they sucker mom and pop investors into believing that Apple has no chance. What's your point?
Quote:
Andy Zaky and the rest of the liars who shorted Apple to death while telling them Apple was so undervalued that nothing could possibly go wrong.
Your implication of fraud notwithstanding (be careful there, Constable!), Apple was—and remains—very undervalued in both a relative and a fundamental basis.
Quote:
Tim Cook and Apple handed the smartphone industry and most of its market share over the Samsung
Market share, yes, but the industry, emphatically no. You have apparently been paying attention to the wrong people. Apple does not seek market share; it seeks customer loyalty and profits. It appears to be doing an admirable job of meeting both those objectives…
Quote:
Apple stock sunk into the Grand Canyon of losses and stayed there for most of 2013 while the rest of the stock market just took off into the stratosphere and many of the profitable tech companies saw added share gains of 20% to 30%. Microsoft got gains of 40% for the year. Heck, even H-P, that financially sick company doubled in share price.
Yes, and what does that tell you? It tells me that the market is irrational and has got it terribly wrong.
Quote:
I hope a good lesson was learned about depending on Apple to get rich. Don't trust a a company that sits on a mountain of reserve cash while shareholders get reamed
Apple has nothing to do with the price of AAPL, as your rant clearly shows. Your anger is misplaced.
Quote:
Samsung became the top dog in mobile.
"Top dog" based on one thing and one thing only—market share.
Quote:
Jeff Bezos scoffed at Apple's inefficient business model.
He did? I always thought the prime objective of business was to earn profits. Help me out here…
Quote:
Market share turned out to be much more important to Wall Street than profits and it continues to be so.
…and that shows you how misguided and misleading Wall Street can be. They're in it for themselves, Constable, not for businesses and certainly not for you or me.
I had already made up my mind earlier, but this post can be used as a clincher for those who don’t believe my explanation or are still on the fence.
The good Constable posts sarcastically most of the time. That’s why the content of his posts looks the way it does. He just doesn’t delineate it with quotes, /s, or ¡.
Really, Odo, you should. Please do. The number of people you’ve had on your case for misinterpretations (including me) is staggering. You’d solve that by making sure we know how you’re saying what you’re saying.
I can’t wait for Amazon to collapse like a dying star.
You may be right about the sarcasm; I, too, detected a note of sarcasm in his posts. But his comments in the past few months have been so relentlessly negative and also very similar that I find them too much, so I don't give him the benefit of the doubt.
You may be right about the sarcasm; I, too, detected a note of sarcasm in his posts. But his comments in the past few months have been so relentlessly negative and also very similar that I find them too much, so I don't give him the benefit of the doubt.
I agree, the negativity seems almost part of a double bluff on those assuming he is being sarcastic. I am erring on the side of ... he isn't being sarcastic. If he is, he needs to clarify. I am this close to the ignore list button ...
Yes, and what does that tell you? It tells me that the market is irrational and has got it terribly wrong.
Apple has nothing to do with the price of AAPL, as your rant clearly shows. Your anger is misplaced.
"Top dog" based on one thing and one thing only—market share.
He did? I always thought the prime objective of business was to earn profits. Help me out here…
…and that shows you how misguided and misleading Wall Street can be. They're in it for themselves, Constable, not for businesses and certainly not for you or me.
I had already made up my mind earlier, but this post can be used as a clincher for those who don’t believe my explanation or are still on the fence.
The good Constable posts sarcastically most of the time. That’s why the content of his posts looks the way it does. He just doesn’t delineate it with quotes, /s, or ¡.
Really, Odo, you should. Please do. The number of people you’ve had on your case for misinterpretations (including me) is staggering. You’d solve that by making sure we know how you’re saying what you’re saying.
I can’t wait for Amazon to collapse like a dying star.
Re Amazon: yes, it's amazing that they still seem to be treated like a start-up by Wall Street! My feeling is that when the internet was still the Wild West, they were a breath of fresh air. Now, I think that consumers and companies are wising up to the internet. Consumers realise that the web isn't so scary and Amazon isn't always the cheapest. Because Amazon has no compelling differentiator, they will never be able to command substantial profits. Low prices are their Raison d'être, regardless of how much people might draw attention to their convenience.
I view their share price a bit like Blackberry's in 2008; built on sand.
Despite reaching a new peak share price for 2013 that pushed Apple's market capitalization above $500 billion, the company's valuation remains where it was in the spring of 2012, at a time when analysts were predicting Apple's market cap would soon double.
As I said back in July, AAPL is a dog. You guys fell for the AAPL hype.
Today's closing price is just $2 more than it was Jan 2, 2013. At $550, how long do you think it will take to double? 1 year? 2 years?
There are so many stocks out there that can give you much better returns.
Year to date, AMZN is up $135, that's over 52% increase.
Just because the stock market is irrational doesn't mean Tim Cook did anything wrong. Apple makes the best products and most of the profits in each of its markets. The market share issue is particularly screwy. Just focusing on the US, where we have good figures, more than 25% of *all* cellphones in use are now iPhones (up from 17.5% a year ago, and 10.2% two years ago). And almost all tablet use is on iPads, so they're killing the market they're actually competing in there also. Eventually people will notice!
While I believe AAPL shares have considerable upside, I'm compelled to note that this article ignores a quite valid factor contributing to the lack of enthusiasm for AAPL stock among investors: the company's profit growth absolutely stalled, beginning with the December quarter of 2012, and has yet to recover.
With respect to the 2008 gyrations, this article also tendentiously ignores yet another legitimate factor: the 2008-2009 financial crisis, which severely affected the price of nearly all equity securities. With the world economy sinking into a deep recession, it was only natural that investors would flee from stocks of companies with a luxury or premium brand reputation.
Bottom line: the market is not as irrational as Mr. Dilger would have us believe. Stock prices ultimately are based on profits, not revenues. Unless AAPL can restore its ability to grow profits, then its stock price will not be able to sustain an upward trajectory.
Wait a sec—when Apple shares collapsed in 2008 in, as you point out, the midst of a global crash, Wall Street was being irrational, not rational! Apple was on a tear in 2008; there was no good reason for their share price to suddenly drop 40%.
Comments
The Market movers drove up the hype on the stock to run up its price to a point where they knew it could not go any higher and then began shorting the hell out of if. The fast way to make money on Wall Street is to short a stock then start putting out bad news. Stocks fall far faster then they raise, and when it starts falling investment company shoot first and ask questions later and this is exactly what happen here. You can look at any number of stocks which saw skyrocketing increases in a short period of time.
And the hilarious thing is that not only 'uninformed' investors got burned, you have supposedly professional hedge fund managers who got caught holding the bag big time when AAPL stalled then plunged back to sane levels. Then they throw hissy fits and demand that Apple buy their shares back at artificially inflated prices. Talk to the hand, replied Tim Cook, to his credit. Ha ha, hell hath no fury like a hedge fund manager scorned.
I had already made up my mind earlier, but this post can be used as a clincher for those who don’t believe my explanation or are still on the fence.
The good Constable posts sarcastically most of the time. That’s why the content of his posts looks the way it does. He just doesn’t delineate it with quotes, /s, or ¡.
Really, Odo, you should. Please do. The number of people you’ve had on your case for misinterpretations (including me) is staggering. You’d solve that by making sure we know how you’re saying what you’re saying.
I can’t wait for Amazon to collapse like a dying star.
"Current UN projections show a continued increase in population in the near future (but a steady decline in the population growth rate), with the global population expected to reach between 8.3 and 10.9 billion by 2050.[11][12] UN Population Division estimates for the year 2150 range between 3.2 and 24.8 billion;[13] mathematical modeling supports the lower estimate."
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population
Fewer customers and older customers present a very particular set of challenges, one which Apple will address with medical, artificial intelligence and robotic devices. You can see Google (with their autonomous vehicles) beginning to approach this also.
My ears .. my ears ....
With respect to the 2008 gyrations, this article also tendentiously ignores yet another legitimate factor: the 2008-2009 financial crisis, which severely affected the price of nearly all equity securities. With the world economy sinking into a deep recession, it was only natural that investors would flee from stocks of companies with a luxury or premium brand reputation.
Bottom line: the market is not as irrational as Mr. Dilger would have us believe. Stock prices ultimately are based on profits, not revenues. Unless AAPL can restore its ability to grow profits, then its stock price will not be able to sustain an upward trajectory.
Color me a troll then, I had high hopes of seeing $1000 and still think the reasons AAPL took a dive was nothing whatsoever to with Apple. Luckiliy I wasn't buying on the way up, just holding on.
That said, I'm more than happy with where my shares are now but obviously would like them to climb back up. The most important thing though, is for Tim to keep doing what Tim is doing and I am sure he will. I think 2014 will be a wonderful year for Apple and AAPL baring catastrophes beyond their control such as extremist politicians trying wreck the economy for their own personal agenda. I say this not to start a political discussion, just to point out Wall Street isn't the only thing to worry about.
I don't think demographics are anything for Apple to worry about to be honest. They focus on the higher end not the volume. But that's another discussion ...
That would make a great' Las Vegas' warning worded slightly differently.
The answer, if you look at it, is clear. The rapid rise of Apple stock made the hedge fund managers feel Apple stock was going to drop like a rock. They bought, betting the stock would fall and they could make money on that fall by a certain date. When it was clear the stock wasn't going to drop, they sold massive amounts of shares. Availability lowered price, and the wimps of Wall Street simply followed this massive stock manipulation. As soon as Apple stock reached a price level the hedgers needed, the drop slowed.
But by this time, smaller investors were terrified and sold their smaller investments, adding to the drop. So the entire thing was nothing more than massive manipulation by hedge fund managers followed later by the sheeple. Hedge funds, nothing more than gambling, should be illegal.
Looking at your 5-year chart, it is easy to see that excluding the bubble of 2012, Apple share prices are charting a continuous rise. It should also be noted that due to stock market manipulation, share price often has little or no direct relation to the actual value of a stock.
Unfortunately you're going to be waiting a long time. Though Amazon loses money it is not because business is slow, they're doing a ton of business but at low margins.
Just ignore him. He's been sounding like he's off his meds since 2012.
Unfortunately, losing money does strange things to some people.
Seems like a good time for a friendly public reminder about the block feature in this forum... Simply hover over a user’s name to gain access to the "Block Member" function :-À
12 , 19 , 34 , 56 -> ...... what is the next number in that sequence?
Would you pay $1,000,000 for a company making $12,000 a year? Of course not. What about one making $56,000 a year? Still no.
Adding six 0's to the end of the above number, why would a company making $56 billion a year be valued at $1,000 billion dollars?
Part of the driver was the sequence above, those were Apple's profits from 2009 to 2012. Looking at that trend in rising profits, if you continued on that trend it would only be a few years till you were making over $100bil a year. Paying a trillion starts to sound almost reasonable...
Answer:
12, 19, 34, 56 -> 50
Once people saw Apples trajectory slowing, the trillion dollar speculation died down quickly and a lot of value was sucked out of Apple shares. Apple made less profit in 2013 than they did in 2012. Steve Jobs' 'ta-da' effect of lowballing numbers so they could wildly exceed them is something generally allowed by smaller non-factor companies and usually results in free marketing with positive headlines. Apple's success grew it to where it was nowhere near a "non-factor" company. That didn't change Steve's behavior and that in large part burned a lot of investors. Everyone from Wall Street to fans were expecting the 'ta-da' that would allow the profit growth to continue. A good article on that in reference to Zaky and a relatively positive outlook on Apple can be found here:
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/10/27/apple-quidance-q1-2014/
Apple obviously needs to reverse the trend of falling profits and start increasing profits again if it is going to reach a market cap of $1 tril. Not that that is really a goal so much as just 'increasing market cap' is. I like the current upward trend in Apple and they have a very solid lineup. The iPad air is tearing things up:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2013/12/02/apples-ipads-are-doing-well/
Keep in mind market cap is a valuation based on the existing financials and Apple is still (currently) primarily a hardware company. To go from a $500 bil to $1000 bil market cap they would need to literally start selling twice as many products (yah yah not quite with overhead/R&D/expenses etc but essentially double).
That is a pretty tall order especially as pressure on margins continue relentlessly (Apple made less profits in 2013 despite selling more devices and having record sales because they made less on each sale)
Wall Street appears both positive, and realistically so, on Apple and Tim Cook gives way better guidance than Steve. Instead of giving one lowball number and saying 'ta-da' we beat that by 50%!!!!! every quarter, Apple is now giving a range- including a low and high target. As long as Apple doesn't get in the game of trying to lowball the high target for the mystery surprise effect investors should have a much more pleasant ride.
It's even stranger when a company loses money. It's like people jumping onto a sinking ship instead of off.
True that, Amazon always has me shaking my head…..
Yes, and now they sucker mom and pop investors into believing that Apple has no chance. What's your point?
Your implication of fraud notwithstanding (be careful there, Constable!), Apple was—and remains—very undervalued in both a relative and a fundamental basis.
Market share, yes, but the industry, emphatically no. You have apparently been paying attention to the wrong people. Apple does not seek market share; it seeks customer loyalty and profits. It appears to be doing an admirable job of meeting both those objectives…
Yes, and what does that tell you? It tells me that the market is irrational and has got it terribly wrong.
Apple has nothing to do with the price of AAPL, as your rant clearly shows. Your anger is misplaced.
"Top dog" based on one thing and one thing only—market share.
He did? I always thought the prime objective of business was to earn profits. Help me out here…
…and that shows you how misguided and misleading Wall Street can be. They're in it for themselves, Constable, not for businesses and certainly not for you or me.
Get a grip.
You may be right about the sarcasm; I, too, detected a note of sarcasm in his posts. But his comments in the past few months have been so relentlessly negative and also very similar that I find them too much, so I don't give him the benefit of the doubt.
I agree, the negativity seems almost part of a double bluff on those assuming he is being sarcastic. I am erring on the side of ... he isn't being sarcastic. If he is, he needs to clarify. I am this close to the ignore list button ...
I don't know how you have the patience ...
Re Amazon: yes, it's amazing that they still seem to be treated like a start-up by Wall Street! My feeling is that when the internet was still the Wild West, they were a breath of fresh air. Now, I think that consumers and companies are wising up to the internet. Consumers realise that the web isn't so scary and Amazon isn't always the cheapest. Because Amazon has no compelling differentiator, they will never be able to command substantial profits. Low prices are their Raison d'être, regardless of how much people might draw attention to their convenience.
I view their share price a bit like Blackberry's in 2008; built on sand.
Despite reaching a new peak share price for 2013 that pushed Apple's market capitalization above $500 billion, the company's valuation remains where it was in the spring of 2012, at a time when analysts were predicting Apple's market cap would soon double.
As I said back in July, AAPL is a dog. You guys fell for the AAPL hype.
Today's closing price is just $2 more than it was Jan 2, 2013. At $550, how long do you think it will take to double? 1 year? 2 years?
There are so many stocks out there that can give you much better returns.
Year to date, AMZN is up $135, that's over 52% increase.
SCTY $38.53, over 310% increase.
SPWR $24.06, over 390% increase.
TSLA $88.81, over 250% increase.
Bullseye!
Wait a sec—when Apple shares collapsed in 2008 in, as you point out, the midst of a global crash, Wall Street was being irrational, not rational! Apple was on a tear in 2008; there was no good reason for their share price to suddenly drop 40%.