Apple will be scrutinized? This is MAYBE news to someone who has been living in a cave! Maybe! Another brilliant analytic mind! Where have they been hiding this market genie!
You're right. It almost seems like these Analysts are playing a game that I used to play with friends and family all the time. Bets and Wagers anyone? Someone reads a clue and you all right down your best guess (number oriented) then everyone has 2 chips they bet on everyones guesses from "least to greatest".
The spread on these "estimates" is so far fetched... you wonder why any investor would even follow these guys. But they do!
Let's see, this article speculates that Apple's margins might be doing down because of the China Mobile deal, and then speculates about various terms that Apple might have agreed to that caused the ostensible margin compression...
This is a rabbithole of speculation disguised as an article...
Please, editors, share facts and information, or at least well-informed rumors, but not layers of guesswork!
In fairness, Maynard is likely just saying what all the others on Wall Street are thinking, and it does help the average investor understand why the stock moves after earnings announcements. It is counter-intuitive to most investors that the stock moves down on good earnings. The reality is revenue keeps going up, but profits are growing much more slowly (if at all).
Fortunately for AAPL, they have easy comps for the first two quarters of FY14. Unfortunately, the highest estimates only assume Q1 made 12% EPS growth, with a 2-4% reduction in shares outstanding.
I really hope for $16 EPS for Q1, and forecast of $50B revenue with 37% margins for Q2, but I imagine it is far too optimistic.
If the software costs are a constant, and you sell twice as many units, does that not reduce your software costs on the previous units? Is it possible that the hardware supplier(Foxconn) could offer a volume discount to Apple?
"Munster ... forecast sales of 3 million for the second quarter..."
"Mark Moskowitz ... a more conservative 2 million per quarter..."
"Brian White ... anticipating sales of between 20 million and 24 million..."
"Timothy Acuri ... estimate at 20 million to 30 million."
In other words, none of them has a clue and really, they're all just guessing?
From 2 million per quarter (8 million for the year) to 30 million (almost 8 million per quarter) for the year. And pretty much everything in between when you add the rest of the yammering Analyst class.
How nice to be paid to guess. Where do I sign up? I'm pretty good at guessing!!
Apple could have capitulated to CM's terms in 2008. They could've caved when things looked grim last summer. This deal could've been done at any time if Apple had just given in. No. They stood firm for years. It was CM that couldn't hold out and had to concede to Apple's terms. The timeline shows this. CM saw what happened in Japan; Customers want the iPhone and they'll go to, or stay, where it is.
I'm sorry but announcing the start of sales of the iPhone on China Mobile ("uh… but were not going to tell you the price of them") is just a bad move.
No two ways about it.
Yup, you’re right. It’s that bad move that made the stock go up 11 bucks today.
I want more such bad moves….
You thought Apple announced their China Mobile deal today??
Besides, I don't care what the stock price did today. I want to know what it does when the Chinese secret iPhone price is revealed. (Don't know why they didn't release that info already (must have had a reason) but it will be released someday, right?
I do not think it is that simple. The price may not reflect if Foxconn game Apple a volume discount for more units. It does not reflect the fact that they may have no cash required to ship from Foxconn to CHL in a few days. And nobody knows what the customers will buy, the 5s or the 5c. It seems that the difference from the Foxconn bill and the invoice goes directly to Apple's bottom line. At sounds like the CHL deal may change the PE of Apple as a growth company. And India is right around the coner
Comments
Apple (we don't give in to carriers) giving concessions to a carrier doesn’t seem like a negative to you?
From the article:
Maynard Um doesn't know if there are concessions. Simply conjecture there may have been concessions by Apple given the length of the negotiations.
Just as easy to speculate that Apple made no concessions and stuck to its guns until China Mobile finally agreed.
There's no fun in speculating that.
How nice to be paid to guess. Where do I sign up? I'm pretty good at guessing!!
But are you skilled at slathering on the B.S.? If not, an analysts position may not be for you.
You're right. It almost seems like these Analysts are playing a game that I used to play with friends and family all the time. Bets and Wagers anyone? Someone reads a clue and you all right down your best guess (number oriented) then everyone has 2 chips they bet on everyones guesses from "least to greatest".
The spread on these "estimates" is so far fetched... you wonder why any investor would even follow these guys. But they do!
Let's see, this article speculates that Apple's margins might be doing down because of the China Mobile deal, and then speculates about various terms that Apple might have agreed to that caused the ostensible margin compression...
This is a rabbithole of speculation disguised as an article...
Please, editors, share facts and information, or at least well-informed rumors, but not layers of guesswork!
Fortunately for AAPL, they have easy comps for the first two quarters of FY14. Unfortunately, the highest estimates only assume Q1 made 12% EPS growth, with a 2-4% reduction in shares outstanding.
I really hope for $16 EPS for Q1, and forecast of $50B revenue with 37% margins for Q2, but I imagine it is far too optimistic.
By now there are far more nails than wood in this coffin.
"Munster ... forecast sales of 3 million for the second quarter..."
"Mark Moskowitz ... a more conservative 2 million per quarter..."
"Timothy Acuri ... estimate at 20 million to 30 million."
In other words, none of them has a clue and really, they're all just guessing?
From 2 million per quarter (8 million for the year) to 30 million (almost 8 million per quarter) for the year. And pretty much everything in between when you add the rest of the yammering Analyst class.
How nice to be paid to guess. Where do I sign up? I'm pretty good at guessing!!
Rounding error.
I'm sorry but announcing the start of sales of the iPhone on China Mobile ("uh… but were not going to tell you the price of them") is just a bad move.
No two ways about it.
Yup, you’re right. It’s that bad move that made the stock go up 11 bucks today.
I want more such bad moves….
You thought Apple announced their China Mobile deal today??
Besides, I don't care what the stock price did today. I want to know what it does when the Chinese secret iPhone price is revealed. (Don't know why they didn't release that info already (must have had a reason) but it will be released someday, right?
But are you skilled at slathering on the B.S.? If not, an analysts position may not be for you.
Damn! I knew I was missing a prerequisite skill set...
See it did not take wall street long to find a negative in otherwise positive news.
See it did not take wall street long to find a negative in otherwise positive news.
Sorry, I'm missing the negative side to this story. Could you point that out for me.