Apple may have sold upwards of 60 million iPhones over holiday quarter

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  • Reply 61 of 103
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post





    Sure, but it still can be short term and yet be a viable strategy. For example, eating lunch today is a short term goal, with the short term strategy of supplying nutrients to my boy despite the fact that I have to eat for my entire life. Furthermore, I plan to have a healthy meal which is a strategy I hope affords me both long and short term benefits.

     

    I cannot think of one short term goal that does not have a longer term consequence.

     

    Try not eating for a few days.

  • Reply 62 of 103
    herbapouherbapou Posts: 2,228member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

    Buybacks and dividends helped alot.  But notice that the stock has been going up only in the past 6 months (from $420 to $570).  That coincides with the ChinaMobile deal and whispers of strong holiday sales for both the iPad and iPhone.

     

    Looking at the entire iPhone and iPad lineup it screams to me that GROSS MARGINS were the priority.

     

    5S - great margins because of using the same basic shell as the 5

    5C - great margins because of plastic case is cheaper and easier to produce.

    5S - more people will be willing to buy the top end 5S because the 5C is missing key tech features and is plastic.  If they released the 5 at $100 cheaper it would have hurt 5S sales.  Just like the 4S hurt the 5 sales during 2012 holiday quarter.

     

    IMO the 5S/5C move was a stroke of genius.  The pricing was perfect to move the majority of people to buy the 5S (which generates higher revenue, gross margin, and profit). 

     

    iPadAir - Amazing product.  Design is finally a match with the mini.

    iPadMini Retina - increased price by $70 to increase margins.  Also made it a hard decision over the Air.  Just $100 will give you a bigger screen

     

    The strategy is well thought out.  We shall see if it pays off in a week and the coming quarters. 


     

    Margins will be key indeed. I expect YoY 5% to 15% income growth but more importantly some kind of margins increase. Apple made the bet of rising margins, so if unit sales didnt went down EPS should rise.

  • Reply 63 of 103
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    I cannot think of one short term goal that does not have a longer term consequence.

    That's the nature of all things; your dictating your future. It's a short term goal to write that essay paper for HS English because there is a longer term goal (perhaps 6 to 8 weeks) of getting an A in the class, a longer term goal of passing the class, a longer term goal of graduating with a diploma, a longer term goal of getting into a certain college and/or getting a scholarship, all likely culminating in a long term goal of having the job and life you have pictured yourself doing since you were a kid. It still doesn't make writing an essay a long term goal.
    Try not eating for a few days.

    That's exactly why it's a short term goal.
  • Reply 64 of 103
    herbapouherbapou Posts: 2,228member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

     

     

    It depends. If your strategy is to make the stock go up then you failed in your strategy. I doubt if Tim Cook's strategy is to make the stock go up. I would think that he just wants to keep Apple very healthy.




    I was under the impression we were talking about strategies on predicting earnings. On the Apple side,  Cook strategy is to position Apple at the high end, so premium brand with high quality but expensive products. We will see the effect on unit sales and margins next week.

  • Reply 65 of 103
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post





    That's the nature of all things; your dictating your future. It's a short term goal to write that essay paper for HS English because there is a longer term goal (perhaps 6 to 8 weeks) of getting an A in the class, a longer term goal of passing the class, a longer term goal of graduating with a diploma, a longer term goal of getting into a certain college and/or getting a scholarship, all likely culminating in a long term goal of having the job and life you have pictured yourself doing since you were a kid. It still doesn't make writing an essay a long term goal.

    That's exactly why it's a short term goal.

     

    Now you've changed the subject... we weren't talking about goals... we were talking about strategies. The short term goals of exams and eating are a long term strategy for work and life.

  • Reply 66 of 103

    Uh oh this is good news, so yes of course Apple's stock will drop next week if a number this large is released :) Analysts are almost always wrong anyway, they're just "guessers" and some are better at guessing than others. Good job Apple if true though!

  • Reply 67 of 103
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    Now you've changed the subject... we weren't talking about goals... we were talking about strategies. The short term goals of exams and eating are a long term strategy for work and life.

    There is a goal in each strategy and a strategy in each goal if they are to be obtained. The short term strategy is to write the essay as effectively as possible in the shortest amount of time for a given teacher for the goal of earning an A on the paper. The goal in life is usually to be happy, comfortable, well off, rich, or whatever else people envision will occur.
  • Reply 68 of 103
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by herbapou View Post

     



    I was under the impression we were talking about strategies on predicting earnings. On the Apple side,  Cook strategy is to position Apple at the high end, so premium brand with high quality but expensive products. We will see the effect on unit sales and margins next week.


     

    I would imagine that Cook knows that he can't grow the company indefinitely with the current line-up. It will be very interesting to see what new products emerge and how successful they will be.

     

    One of Steve's quotes:

    "People think focus means saying yes to the thing you've got to focus on. But that's not what it means at all. It means saying no to the hundred other good ideas that there are. You have to pick carefully. I'm actually as proud of the things we haven't done as the things I have done. Innovation is saying "no" to 1,000 things."

  • Reply 69 of 103
    herbapouherbapou Posts: 2,228member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

    They will get a respectable PE once they show earnings growth of 10-20%.

     

    Even during their mega growth phase in 2011-2012 their PE still hovered around 15-20.  Wall street does discount Apple because they are viewed as mostly a hardware maker.  OF course that can changed with growing software/apps sales.

     

    If they grow 10-20% I could see a 15 PE.  That would put the price at $650-$675

     

    EPS for FY 2013 - $39.63

    EPS for FY 2014 with 10% earnings growth - $43.59

    $43.59 x 15 PE = $653.85 share price

     

    Note EPS for FY 2012 was $44.16


     

    maybe I am too bullish but my prediction for 2014 EPS are around $50 on 15% income growth on top of a 3-4% increase in margins.

  • Reply 70 of 103
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post





    There is a goal in each strategy and a strategy in each goal if they are to be obtained. The short term strategy is to write the essay as effectively as possible in the shortest amount of time for a given teacher for the goal of earning an A on the paper. The goal in life is usually to be happy, comfortable, well off, rich, or whatever else people envision will occur.

     

    Well, at least you finally agreed with me.

     

    A successful strategy is to get an A. Anything less than an A shows that your strategy wasn't successful.

  • Reply 71 of 103
    totaltotal Posts: 83member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by herbapou View Post

     

     

    Last year I was pretty spot on on the number using VZ number and market share estimates. CNBC have a lot of guess and some of there staff are very bias, so you need to know which ones are more fair because they will always have anti-Apple talks no matter what.

     

    I am hoping we get 60+ or we will have yet another year of growth decelaration in unit sales. On the other hand, YoY margins should be better. Market share improvements in the US points to a big number but I still need to see a sale sample (VZ) to make up my mind.




    why do you think YoY margins will be better? Manufacturing 5S with Touch ID is cheaper than 5 before year? sounds strange :)

  • Reply 72 of 103
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    Well, at least you finally agreed with me.

    A successful strategy is to get an A. Anything less than an A shows that your strategy wasn't successful.

    I didn't agree with you and I don't think I can be any more clear about how writing an essay paper is a very, very short aim compared to an entire life's objective.

    The bottom line is there are excellent strategies that achieve the desired goal in a short duration… and you use employ them constantly without even (consciously) thinking about them. I bet if you actually analyzed your mundane decisions over the next hour you find yourself making strategic decisions you never once considered to be of value and yet they are as part of the very fabric that gets you through your day-to-day activities.
  • Reply 73 of 103

    This is BS stock manipulation.

  • Reply 74 of 103
    @sog35

    AAPL is discounted by the street because they are 'just a hardware maker' ??

    So how come all those other companies that are only a '_' have a PE of 20 or 50 or more? Don't get me started on Amazon.

    When will Wall Street be rational? (Never, I know)
    So then, 15% [I]growth[/I] = 15 PE. Maybe.

    Maybe jealousy is a factor. Since apple is the company to beat and all.
    There seems to be a relentless corporate espionage level campaign to take apple down and is succeeding somewhat.

    Hoping for that 'new category' from Apple.
    Kind of a crazy high bar to set for any company. Will they ever be free of that?
    How many iTunes level 'software' successes would it take? Banking? Advertising algorithm? Geez.
  • Reply 75 of 103
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post





    I didn't agree with you and I don't think I can be any more clear about how writing an essay paper is a very, very short aim compared to an entire life's objective.



    The bottom line is there are excellent strategies that achieve the desired goal in a short duration… and you use employ them constantly without even (consciously) thinking about them. I bet if you actually analyzed your mundane decisions over the next hour you find yourself making strategic decisions you never once considered to be of value and yet they are as part of the very fabric that gets you through your day-to-day activities.

     

    ... and I don't agree with you.

     

    You changed the entire argument to suit your purposes. Originally we were talking about business. You moved onto personal goals (which still follow what I am saying, imo)

     

    Move on. You're not very convincing.

  • Reply 76 of 103
    Upwards of 60 million means a metric buttload, dudes! It also means more than 60, in other words, more than anyone is willing to estimate. I don't see anyone whispering excitedly, so I am going to go with a range of 59 million nine hundred thousand to 61 million.
  • Reply 77 of 103
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    ... and I don't agree with you.

    You changed the entire argument to suit your purposes. Originally we were talking about business. You moved onto personal goals (which still follow what I am saying, imo)

    Move on. You're not very convincing.

    We're talking about simplistic terms here, not something that only exists in business. I gave you examples that might be more relatable to you. If you don't see how there are reoccurring daily, weekly, monthly or quarterly goals in business then there is no point in me making an analogy that involves business that you couldn't wrap your head around. It's how analogies work if they are to be successful.
  • Reply 78 of 103
    Originally Posted by maccherry View Post

    This is BS stock manipulation.

     

    No, it’s legitimate stock manipulation. <img class=" src="http://forums-files.appleinsider.com/images/smilies//lol.gif" />

  • Reply 79 of 103
    @pal @sog

    You posted:

    "Don't get me started on Amazon."


    This is how your post looks to a visitor who is not logged in to AI

    1000


    So, Apparently, AI got you started on Amazon.


    and here's the raw link:


    http://api.viglink.com/api/click?format=go&key=9652589481f2c9e30f68cf5f19b3ef60&loc=http://forums.appleinsider.com/t/161643/apple-may-have-sold-upwards-of-60-million-iphones-over-holiday-quarter/80&v=1&exp=-1:na:0&type=L&libId=d9b0685d-0565-4883-a562-726ee1d833cc&out=http://www.amazon.com/&ref=http://forums.appleinsider.com/t/161643/apple-may-have-sold-upwards-of-60-million-iphones-over-holiday-quarter/40&title=Apple may have sold upwards of 60 million iPhones over holiday quarter - Page 3&txt=<span id="yui_3_10_0_1_1390249373746_535">Amazon</span>&jsonp=vglnk_jsonp_13902495141659


    and the ad:


    1000

    palomine wrote: »
    @sog35

    AAPL is discounted by the street because they are 'just a hardware maker' ??

    So how come all those other companies that are only a '_' have a PE of 20 or 50 or more? Don't get me started on Amazon.

    When will Wall Street be rational? (Never, I know)
    So then, 15% growth = 15 PE. Maybe.

    Maybe jealousy is a factor. Since apple is the company to beat and all.
    There seems to be a relentless corporate espionage level campaign to take apple down and is succeeding somewhat.

    Hoping for that 'new category' from Apple.
    Kind of a crazy high bar to set for any company. Will they ever be free of that?
    How many iTunes level 'software' successes would it take? Banking? Advertising algorithm? Geez.
  • Reply 80 of 103
    maccherry wrote: »
    This is BS stock manipulation.
    Amen to that. To those who say how could all those analysts be colluding: not necessary. All the big players (including analysts) know the game, they don't have to get together and put in writing any more than a shortstop needs to meet with the first baseman before throwing the ball. They all just react, knowing the average investor will be thrown out while they win the game.
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