With Facebook having some 1.2B users, wouldn't that market me saturated as well? Why hasn't their stock been down rated¿
Look at their financials...
Operating income:
Facebook 2012 538,000,000
2013 2,804,000,000
Apple 2012 55,000,000,000
2013 50,000,000,000
Obviously Apple makes way more than Facebook, but stock price is a valuation. Apple is valued way higher than Facebook. Apple isn't doomed by any stretch- they are simply valued at a 'company that makes around 50 bil a year' The downgrade is just saying if you're an investor don't expect Apple shares to move up much unless they find a way to be a company that makes more than 50b a year. 75% of Apples income is iPad and iPhone related. Apple owns 80% of the profits in the high end market whose growth has more or less stopped. So far this year it looks like Apple will break even or make slightly less than their 2013 numbers. Again, Apple isn't doomed, they are just correctly valued for their current earnings. If they take the world by surprise and have a new breakout product, that could change the outlook. In order for that 'new thing' to have meaningful impact to Apples financials it would have to be a behemoth right out of the crate to even be a ripple in the iPhone stream. That particular analyst doesn't view that as likely.
When Facebooks numbers flatten out, it will face the same downgrade status.
Take the passion out of it. Companies get upgraded and downgraded all the time. For some reason Apple fans take it personally and/or think Apple is being singled out when it happens to Apple. It just isn't the case.
I've said before that I don't like these long quiet periods from Apple because they create a vacuum that gets filled with FUD and D&G. But, and this is a big BUT, I'm glad Apple beats to its own drum and doesn't make product decisions based on Wall Street analysts or some need to match what others are doing. I trust that Cook and team are doing what they think is best for Apple not what will give CNBC something to talk about for a day.
Obviously Apple makes way more than Facebook, but stock price is a valuation. Apple is valued way higher than Facebook. Apple isn't doomed by any stretch- they are simply valued at a 'company that makes around 50 bil a year' The downgrade is just saying if you're an investor don't expect Apple shares to move up much unless they find a way to be a company that makes more than 50b a year. 75% of Apples income is iPad and iPhone related. Apple owns 80% of the profits in the high end market whose growth has more or less stopped. So far this year it looks like Apple will break even or make slightly less than their 2013 numbers. Again, Apple isn't doomed, they are just correctly valued for their current earnings. If they take the world by surprise and have a new breakout product, that could change the outlook. In order for that 'new thing' to have meaningful impact to Apples financials it would have to be a behemoth right out of the crate to even be a ripple in the iPhone stream. That particular analyst doesn't view that as likely.
When Facebooks numbers flatten out, it will face the same downgrade status.
Take the passion out of it. Companies get upgraded and downgraded all the time. For some reason Apple fans take it personally and/or think Apple is being singled out when it happens to Apple. It just isn't the case.
You should ask a mod to make this a sticky to every thread on the topic of (Apple) stock; I think you're very spot on.
Ben A. Reitzes should be thrown in jail for stock price manipulation. Barclays is a joke. This whole idea of randomly setting a target stock price needs to be outlawed by the SEC right now! It is a self serving exercise that benefits these Wall Street clowns.
Someone said: "I think there is something that report overlooked, the actual hardware account for a fraction of Apple revenu. Apple is makings a lot more money selling digital media and apps than selling iOS or Mac hardware".
Actually that's not true - Apple makes the vast majority of it's profits from selling hardware. It's not making 'a lot more money' selling digital media and apps. Where are you getting this information from?
I believe the reality is that Apple makes most of its money from hardware, but it makes more money from content than some other large companies are making in total. It is making something like $7 Billion in revenue from iTunes a quarter. $28 Billion in annual revenue eclipses quite a few very good companies.
I sincerely hope that everyone who was involved with this prediction at Barclays and everyone who listens to this prediction loses everything they ever had in stocks. Apple is bleeding good news. Read the latest on China Mobile. This is all just a game to drive prices back down so the astute morons at Barclays can then chasing their tune and buy, buy, buy! Market manipulation by a few greedy evil trolls.
You forgot the valuation part, FB is valued at 53 times earnings in 2014 vs AAPL's 13 (before discounting for cash). Yes, FB grew faster than AAPL last year (who knows for how long), but their valuation assumes that they will grow something like 4 times faster than AAPL for the next couple of years. They might just do that, but assuming zero growth for AAPL is perhaps too conservative.
Investors have been stepping aside from Apple since the infamous share price fiasco in 2012 when Apple handed over the smartphone market to Samsung. There's probably no recovery from that. It definitely left Wall Street and Apple shareholders with a bitter taste in their mouths. Most successful companies with wads of cash don't give their market share position away that easily. Even after this recent buyback Apple shares are still stuttering and misfiring like some ancient engine with bad plugs and fouled carbs. Everything Apple does is like pouring sugar into a gas tank and the share price tanks. Meanwhile, Google is running like a world-class F1 racer leaving Apple sucking fumes.
Apple really should have gone after Tesla to show that it means business. Every time Apple's share price moves up a bit, an analyst or two will jump in and say Apple has gone up TOO much and downgrade the stock. Apple's iPhone and tablet business has been completely overwhelmed by half-priced Android devices. Most consumers simply can't resist really cheap devices because they think they're getting a bargain. I'm not sure whether Apple deserves a downgrade or not but I always expect it to happen. The stock has no momentum whatsoever. It will move up and bit and then boom, analyst downgrade and share collapse. It's really a pain to be an Apple shareholder nowadays while the rest of the market is on a roll. At least I can count on the dividends to see me through. Apple refuses to play Wall Street's game and would rather sit on a mountain of cash than excite Wall Street investors. That's the breaks. Apple can't seem to increase institutional ownership which pretty much shows Apple has stagnated.
Making bad management decisions to please Wall Street would seem a far worse course of action.
How are call spreads used in Bear investing? Why not use puts?
Call spreads can be bullish or bearish (as can put spreads). It all depends on which calls (the ones you are selling or the ones you are buying) are at higher strike prices.
well, after earnings report on January stock recovered faster than i expected, so this "correction" is nothing new for everyone who owns AAPL. Im curious what will happen in next weeks, because:
monday - samsung galaxy S5 (potential downside for AAPL)
friday - shareholder meeting (potential down / upside)
and probably most importantly, overall market correction is waiting, but here is possible that if market will fall 10%, AAPL can fall lower 5% or so.
That is a weird call to make with all the rumors going on about an Apple TV w/apps and games, iWatch, iphablet, ipad pro and a bigger screen iphones....
Well even if Apple's business stays at zero growth, they could still buy back half of their remaining shares in 5 - 10 years, depending on repatriation tax implications or issuing debt. If you assume their P/E stays the same (and there really isn't any room for it to go lower) then that would result in a doubling of the share price for that reason alone. Now before anyone starts pointing out that buybacks didn't work out so well for company X, please note that all such companies began with large P/Es that needed to come down to match their level of low - or no - growth.
Thompson
True. and imo Apple will be able to pull off some growth, even if its only 10% per year.
AAPL is MANIPULATED by VILLAIN ! Barclay Has MUCH to Do With " High Frequency Trader " GETCO !!! Both Barclay and GETCO are Lackay and BAGMAN of VILLAIN who Masterminds The Whole Scenario ofFelling Down Apple for EVIL's SAKE. This is A War: Main Street ( Ordinary People ) VS Wall Street ( Controlled by DEMON ) Get ANGRY, Americans ! Not Only Economy but Politics of Your Country is Still SUBORDINATE of VILLAIN which Lives in EUROPE ! GS ( Goldman Sachs ), Barclay etc. etc., They Are ALL Originally Has HeadQuarter in Europe.
What about something which would enable you to monitor the most precious thing you possess : your health ?
Not a chance: it will cost less than a smartphone (remember the unsubsidized true price) and not everyone will want it enough to buy it. It's GOOD for them, and they should want it. I would want it! Many people will... but everyone wants to communicate and do all the other things an iPhone puts in your pocket. (Camera, phone, email, web, social media, games, navigation, weather, creativity, a zillion special-purpose apps... a computer in your pocket!)
A health monitor (or something that does that along with other things) could be a great success--and I think Apple will indeed do that. it just won't be an iPhone sized success: product price multiplied by number of people who will actually buy it.
I also think people actually have a certain amount of aversion to health info. It's human nature for at least two reasons: a) people are afraid of bad news, and b) people don't want to be told to give up their vices (eat better, exercise more). The same reasons some people procrastinate about going to the doctor, or find it hard to resist dessert.
Comments
With Facebook having some 1.2B users, wouldn't that market me saturated as well? Why hasn't their stock been down rated¿
Look at their financials...
Operating income:
Facebook 2012 538,000,000
2013 2,804,000,000
Apple 2012 55,000,000,000
2013 50,000,000,000
Obviously Apple makes way more than Facebook, but stock price is a valuation. Apple is valued way higher than Facebook. Apple isn't doomed by any stretch- they are simply valued at a 'company that makes around 50 bil a year' The downgrade is just saying if you're an investor don't expect Apple shares to move up much unless they find a way to be a company that makes more than 50b a year. 75% of Apples income is iPad and iPhone related. Apple owns 80% of the profits in the high end market whose growth has more or less stopped. So far this year it looks like Apple will break even or make slightly less than their 2013 numbers. Again, Apple isn't doomed, they are just correctly valued for their current earnings. If they take the world by surprise and have a new breakout product, that could change the outlook. In order for that 'new thing' to have meaningful impact to Apples financials it would have to be a behemoth right out of the crate to even be a ripple in the iPhone stream. That particular analyst doesn't view that as likely.
When Facebooks numbers flatten out, it will face the same downgrade status.
Take the passion out of it. Companies get upgraded and downgraded all the time. For some reason Apple fans take it personally and/or think Apple is being singled out when it happens to Apple. It just isn't the case.
Both of you need to work on typing your “/s”.
You should ask a mod to make this a sticky to every thread on the topic of (Apple) stock; I think you're very spot on.
Don't they have to disclose that they have a massive call spread in favor of the share price tanking? Isn't this manipulation 101 and illegal?
How are call spreads used in Bear investing? Why not use puts?
We believe Apple's story is all about iPhones and 'new categories' seem to be designed to make the iPhone more useful ...
Aha. There's your problem, Ben.
Someone said: "I think there is something that report overlooked, the actual hardware account for a fraction of Apple revenu. Apple is makings a lot more money selling digital media and apps than selling iOS or Mac hardware".
Actually that's not true - Apple makes the vast majority of it's profits from selling hardware. It's not making 'a lot more money' selling digital media and apps. Where are you getting this information from?
I believe the reality is that Apple makes most of its money from hardware, but it makes more money from content than some other large companies are making in total. It is making something like $7 Billion in revenue from iTunes a quarter. $28 Billion in annual revenue eclipses quite a few very good companies.
I sincerely hope that everyone who was involved with this prediction at Barclays and everyone who listens to this prediction loses everything they ever had in stocks. Apple is bleeding good news. Read the latest on China Mobile. This is all just a game to drive prices back down so the astute morons at Barclays can then chasing their tune and buy, buy, buy! Market manipulation by a few greedy evil trolls.
You forgot the valuation part, FB is valued at 53 times earnings in 2014 vs AAPL's 13 (before discounting for cash). Yes, FB grew faster than AAPL last year (who knows for how long), but their valuation assumes that they will grow something like 4 times faster than AAPL for the next couple of years. They might just do that, but assuming zero growth for AAPL is perhaps too conservative.
Making bad management decisions to please Wall Street would seem a far worse course of action.
How are call spreads used in Bear investing? Why not use puts?
Call spreads can be bullish or bearish (as can put spreads). It all depends on which calls (the ones you are selling or the ones you are buying) are at higher strike prices.
Thompson
well, after earnings report on January stock recovered faster than i expected, so this "correction" is nothing new for everyone who owns AAPL. Im curious what will happen in next weeks, because:
monday - samsung galaxy S5 (potential downside for AAPL)
friday - shareholder meeting (potential down / upside)
and probably most importantly, overall market correction is waiting, but here is possible that if market will fall 10%, AAPL can fall lower 5% or so.
That is a weird call to make with all the rumors going on about an Apple TV w/apps and games, iWatch, iphablet, ipad pro and a bigger screen iphones....
Well even if Apple's business stays at zero growth, they could still buy back half of their remaining shares in 5 - 10 years, depending on repatriation tax implications or issuing debt. If you assume their P/E stays the same (and there really isn't any room for it to go lower) then that would result in a doubling of the share price for that reason alone. Now before anyone starts pointing out that buybacks didn't work out so well for company X, please note that all such companies began with large P/Es that needed to come down to match their level of low - or no - growth.
Thompson
True. and imo Apple will be able to pull off some growth, even if its only 10% per year.
Barclay Has MUCH to Do With " High Frequency Trader " GETCO !!!
Both Barclay and GETCO are Lackay and BAGMAN of VILLAIN who Masterminds The Whole Scenario ofFelling Down Apple for EVIL's SAKE.
This is A War: Main Street ( Ordinary People ) VS Wall Street ( Controlled by DEMON )
Get ANGRY, Americans !
Not Only Economy but Politics of Your Country is Still SUBORDINATE of VILLAIN which Lives in EUROPE !
GS ( Goldman Sachs ), Barclay etc. etc., They Are ALL Originally Has HeadQuarter in Europe.
What about something which would enable you to monitor the most precious thing you possess : your health ?
Not a chance: it will cost less than a smartphone (remember the unsubsidized true price) and not everyone will want it enough to buy it. It's GOOD for them, and they should want it. I would want it! Many people will... but everyone wants to communicate and do all the other things an iPhone puts in your pocket. (Camera, phone, email, web, social media, games, navigation, weather, creativity, a zillion special-purpose apps... a computer in your pocket!)
A health monitor (or something that does that along with other things) could be a great success--and I think Apple will indeed do that. it just won't be an iPhone sized success: product price multiplied by number of people who will actually buy it.
I also think people actually have a certain amount of aversion to health info. It's human nature for at least two reasons: a) people are afraid of bad news, and b) people don't want to be told to give up their vices (eat better, exercise more). The same reasons some people procrastinate about going to the doctor, or find it hard to resist dessert.