Apple's iPhone 5c 'failure flop' outsold Blackberry, Windows Phone and every Android flagship in Q4

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  • Reply 141 of 299
    pmzpmz Posts: 3,433member

    I think its hilarious the way people misinterpret Tim Cook's comments to think that Apple expected to sell exactly as many 5s as they did, and even more 5c than they did. It's really, really funny.

     

    Nothing of the sort. Apple expected the 5c to attract more upgraders, at the expense of 5s sales. They were pleasantly surprised to see people opt for the more expensive flagship model, instead of being swayed by the "new" model, that was a bit cheaper. Apple couldn't have hoped for a better outcome...in fact, they thought they may have done too good of a job with the 5c and were about to lose on overall revenue if iPhone 4,4S upgraders, and new iPhone buyers opted for the 5c instead of 5s. That didn't happen, much to their surprise and delight.

     

    If you, as reader, blogger, or author, don't understand the above paragraph in anyway, just Quit Apple.

  • Reply 142 of 299
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by pmz View Post

     

    I think its hilarious the way people misinterpret Tim Cook's comments to think that Apple expected to sell exactly as many 5s as they did, and even more 5c than they did. It's really, really funny.

     

    Nothing of the sort. Apple expected the 5c to attract more upgraders, at the expense of 5s sales. They were pleasantly surprised to see people opt for the more expensive flagship model, instead of being swayed by the "new" model, that was a bit cheaper. Apple couldn't have hoped for a better outcome...in fact, they thought they may have done too good of a job with the 5c and were about to lose on overall revenue if iPhone 4,4S upgraders, and new iPhone buyers opted for the 5c instead of 5s. That didn't happen, much to their surprise and delight.

     

    If you, as reader, blogger, or author, don't understand the above paragraph in anyway, just Quit Apple.


     

    Hmmmm... and here I thought Apple was more interested in profit than revenue. Who knew...

  • Reply 143 of 299
    iaeeniaeen Posts: 588member
    Hmmmm... and here I thought Apple was more interested in profit than revenue. Who knew...

    Aren't the margins better on the 5s?
  • Reply 144 of 299
    Dan_DilgerDan_Dilger Posts: 1,583member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by dreyfus2 View Post



    The article is certainly right in that the "failure" claim is nonsense, nothing to argue.



    Still, it does not really account for the fact that, due to the subsidy situation, the 5c seems to be far less relevant in markets with no real subsidies outside the US. I commute between Germany and India and I see tons of 5s and have not seen a single 5c ever. Yes, this is anecdotal, but no best seller page of any local telco lists the 5c at all. (It is hard to really draw conclusions from that though, as most of them treat each color and capacity as a unique device.) My telco has even eliminated all but the white and blue models from their catalog.



    Not saying it is a failure, but a US only debuttal is only half the story.

     

    These aren’t US numbers. They are global figures. Apple sold ~13 million iPhone 5c in the Q4 13, more not only Android flagships, but the entire platforms of smartphones behind Android (BB and WP).

     

    You are no doubt right that the 5c performed best in the US (based on carrier mix figures by nation) where carrier subsidies mask the price. But that was enough to make the 5c a major launch globally, and again, one of the most successful smartphones to ever launch, ever in history. The fact that the 5c isn’t selling gangbusters in other countries doesn’t make it a flop, because clearly most high end smartphones don’t sell in quantity in non-subsidized nations that impose high taxes on import electronics. This makes it particularly noteworthy that the 5c still managed to sell large volume of units worldwide. It is competing against $90 Nokia phones, $200 Lumias, $150-300 Androids. 

     

    The bottom line is that the tech media is creating a Bizarro world where Apple has to vanquish all competitors entirely and achieve insanely optimistic sales numbers in order to just be OK, while everyone else can lose billions of dollars and still be AOK golden. That’s simply ridiculous. 

  • Reply 145 of 299
    The most absurd part of the "5C is a failure" disinformation campaign, is the argument that Apple will end up "discontinuing" the 5C, which is even more ridiculous. If there was a problem with sales, Apple could easily just cut the price, since it's still sold at quite a markup. But the Apple haters can't argue Apple will lower the price, because obviously that's Apple's intention anyway. So it not only needs to be a failure, but one Apple will run away from. Not likely.

    Apple's biggest real mistake in recent memory was lowing the price of the original iPhone too quickly after it was launched. Apple has always charged a "geek tax" on first adopters, who end up paying more in order to get the latest things six months early. But in the case of the original iPhone, they dropped the price so quickly everyone screamed. That was a real misstep. One that Apple has never repeated.

    Thus people who like the colors of the 5C or want to pay a little less, are obviously paying more now than they would if they waited a year. Apple is going to lower the price of the 5C, but very gradually. Short term, it's making plenty of money on it as a midrange phone. Long term, it's obviously Apple's low cost phone. But they have no need to rush.

    One of the things people fail to realize is that the plastic case is brilliant. It will allow Apple to cheaply refresh the look of the phone. I suspect there will be cheaper "colors" in the future (perhaps the old colors) and there can easily be some fun plastic special editions. Long term, the 5C is going to be a winner.
  • Reply 146 of 299
    mark2005mark2005 Posts: 1,158member

    Apple has been selling iPhone 4S for 2.5 years, and iPhone 5C for 6 months. Plus iPhone 4S was the flagship for 12 months. So there should be more 4S out there than 5C. And it isn't that easy to distinguish iPhone 4 from a 4S.  

     

    But since we're talking anecdotes, I just saw three 5C this morning at Panera Bread - pink one, green one, and blue one. 

  • Reply 147 of 299
    emesemes Posts: 239member
    Maybe it's just me, but I've only seen one or two more 5c' s than Windows Phones
  • Reply 148 of 299
    radarthekatradarthekat Posts: 3,525moderator
    frood wrote: »
    No.  Their epectations sets their price.  If you feel their expectations are unreasonably high, you are saying Apple is valued unreasonably high.  At its peak it was valued at near the GDP of Switzerland.

    Take the passions of phone companies out of it.  You and I both own hot dog stands and sell the same product.  People love my insanely delicious hot dogs, and I sell a ton of them, but I keep everything I do secret.  You sell a pretty mean hot dog too.

    Analysts are asked to value our respective hot dog companies.  They predict I'm going to sell 1,000,000 and value me at $1,000,000 (just to keep it simple).  They predict you are going to sell 100,000 and value you at $100,000.   Neither of us has actually sold a hot dog in this quarter yet, but people would be willing to pay much more for my company because I'm expected to sell a lot more than you.

    The quarter actually happens and we post our numbers.  You sold 200,000 hot dogs.  I sold 500,000 (a record amount for me!).  Guess what?  People like my product more than yours, I sold way more than twice as many hot dogs as you did, and I am doing better business than you are.

    So that means my stock is going to soar, right?  Buzzzzzz.... Wrong.  My stock is going to plummet, and yours is going to soar.   But but but.... record sales!!!!!  Doesn't matter.  Sold WAY more than the competition so obviously my customers love me and will be back!  Doesn't matter.  I was valued at a company that was supposed to sell 1,000,000 hot dogs and I "only" sold 500,000.  I'm not doomed.  I'm not a failure.  People still like my product better than yours because they buy more.  I'm just not worth the $1,000,000 that I would be if I had sold 1,000,000 hot dogs.  You on the other hand, sold way fewer than I did, and your stock is soaring.  It should be.  You were valued at $100,000 based on expectations and you far exceeded them.  I'm still worth a lot more than you are :p  My shareholder are now much poorer though :(

    My shareholders and fans can cry a river that my hot dogs are better than anyone else's and that I sell more than anyone else.  They are absolutely right that the analysts had it all wrong.  But when they bought my shares thinking I was worth 1,000,000- the analysts had set that unreasonable expectation and they bought in to it.  I was unable to deliver- I was really only worth $500,000.  They can then cry that 1,000,000 was a totally unreasonable number and blame analysts for setting expectations so high- and they would be absolutely right.  I never should have been valued at $1,000,000 in the first place because that was based on their unrealistic expectations.

        Of course you'll also get the ones that say.  He sold record numbers and way more than anyone else, but his stock tanked, and that other guy sold *way* less and his stock is soaring!!! WTF!!!!  Clear sign of market manipulation!!!!!

    Would you at least agree that if Apple consistently sells more phones at higher profit margins, they should be worth more than if they sell fewer phones at lower margins?

    There are some analysts who do set lower expectations for Apple.  But since they expect Apple to sell less of their products, they also lower their valuation and price targets for Apple.  It's usually the fans that decry analysts for setting unreasonably high targets for Apple that are the same ones calling the analysts that give Apple a lower price target based on more reasonable expectations a bunch of idiots.

    The best part is we're now 'done' right?  I sold 500,000... you sold 200,000 so everyone has their answer and we can be 'correctly valued' easily now right?  Its the start of a new quarter and we *know* how many we just sold and what our numbers are on the spot of the moment.  What we don't know is how many we are going to sell this next quarter.   Analysts have to come up with their best guess, again (that guess being more accurately defined as the 'net present value of all future *expected* earnings), and if people value their insights and invest accordingly, the price will again move to levels based on those analysts expectations.   Rinse.  Lather. Repeat.  If you don't believe the analysts high valuation of any company because you think there is no way that company can meet their expected targets... you are saying that the company should have a lower valuation because you believe they are going to sell less product.

    That hot dog analogy works well until you align it a bit more with reality. The 200,000 dogs were sold at a loss and the 500,000 were sold at a wonderful profit, plus the $1,000,000 valuation on my hot dog stand is half the p/e of your hot dog stand to start with. Now which stock should move which direction?
  • Reply 149 of 299
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,686member
    pmz wrote: »
    I think its hilarious the way people misinterpret Tim Cook's comments to think that Apple expected to sell exactly as many 5s as they did, and even more 5c than they did. It's really, really funny.

    Nothing of the sort. Apple expected the 5c to attract more upgraders, at the expense of 5s sales. They were pleasantly surprised to see people opt for the more expensive flagship model, instead of being swayed by the "new" model, that was a bit cheaper. Apple couldn't have hoped for a better outcome...in fact, they thought they may have done too good of a job with the 5c and were about to lose on overall revenue if iPhone 4,4S upgraders, and new iPhone buyers opted for the 5c instead of 5s. That didn't happen, much to their surprise and delight.

    If you, as reader, blogger, or author, don't understand the above paragraph in anyway, just Quit Apple.

    It's funny that Tim Cook didn't say that after he said the mix was not what they expected but failed to add that they were delighted at having more 5S sales and were glad that there were fewer upgrades from the 4 and 4S to the 5C than expected. Luckily he called you and made it clear.
  • Reply 150 of 299
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,686member
    The most absurd part of the "5C is a failure" disinformation campaign, is the argument that Apple will end up "discontinuing" the 5C, which is even more ridiculous. If there was a problem with sales, Apple could easily just cut the price, since it's still sold at quite a markup. But the Apple haters can't argue Apple will lower the price, because obviously that's Apple's intention anyway. So it not only needs to be a failure, but one Apple will run away from. Not likely.

    Apple's biggest real mistake in recent memory was lowing the price of the original iPhone too quickly after it was launched. Apple has always charged a "geek tax" on first adopters, who end up paying more in order to get the latest things six months early. But in the case of the original iPhone, they dropped the price so quickly everyone screamed. That was a real misstep. One that Apple has never repeated.

    Thus people who like the colors of the 5C or want to pay a little less, are obviously paying more now than they would if they waited a year. Apple is going to lower the price of the 5C, but very gradually. Short term, it's making plenty of money on it as a midrange phone. Long term, it's obviously Apple's low cost phone. But they have no need to rush.

    One of the things people fail to realize is that the plastic case is brilliant. It will allow Apple to cheaply refresh the look of the phone. I suspect there will be cheaper "colors" in the future (perhaps the old colors) and there can easily be some fun plastic special editions. Long term, the 5C is going to be a winner.

    Um, no. The original iPhone was failing before the price drop.

    And Apple have already dropped prices on the 5C in select countries. A good move.
  • Reply 151 of 299
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by iaeen View Post





    Aren't the margins better on the 5s?

     

    We could assume that but one piece in the puzzle that we don't know is if the extra 5s sales actually exceeded any lack of 5c sales.

     

    Hard to say if there really was a net gain overall.

  • Reply 152 of 299
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,686member
    We could assume that but one piece in the puzzle that we don't know is if the extra 5s sales actually exceeded any lack of 5c sales.

    Hard to say if there really was a net gain overall.

    Pmz knows. Apparantly.
  • Reply 153 of 299
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Mackay Bell View Post



    The most absurd part of the "5C is a failure" disinformation campaign, is the argument that Apple will end up "discontinuing" the 5C, which is even more ridiculous. If there was a problem with sales, Apple could easily just cut the price, since it's still sold at quite a markup. But the Apple haters can't argue Apple will lower the price, because obviously that's Apple's intention anyway. So it not only needs to be a failure, but one Apple will run away from. Not likely.

     

     

    ... and I'm just wondering what you will say if Apple actually does drop the 5c.

  • Reply 154 of 299
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    We could assume that but one piece in the puzzle that we don't know is if the extra 5s sales actually exceeded any lack of 5c sales.

    Hard to say if there really was a net gain overall.

    Unless you assume Apple was expecting a lot more 5C sales with mid-range buyers any loss of 5C sales as 5S sales are going to be 1:1.
  • Reply 155 of 299
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    ... and I'm just wondering what you will say if Apple actually does drop the 5c.

    What is there to say? What does it mean? Was the iPhone 5 such a slouch that it deserved to be obliterated? I would have thought the iPhone 5 (or 5C) should have a least been the low-eat tier device so they could eschew the 3.5" display of the 4S but that clearly wasn't the case but regardless, a device going away in no way means it was a failure as proofed by the iPhone 5.
  • Reply 156 of 299
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,686member
    solipsismx wrote: »
    Unless you assume Apple was expecting a lot more 5C sales with mid-range buyers any loss of 5C sales as 5S sales are going to be 1:1.

    Of course most extra sales which might have happened with a lower priced iPhone 5C would have happened without cannibalisation because the people who actually did and could afford the 5S and who did buy it would have still been able to buy the 5s.

    The claim here seems to be that if the 5C were reduced in price, or had otherwise sold to Apples internal expectations, then all of the extra sales would be from the 5S to the 5C rather than from Android switchers, first timers or upgrades from the 4 and 4S. That's very unlikely.
  • Reply 157 of 299
    sudonymsudonym Posts: 233member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by retiarius View Post



    Another analogy: Even though Einstein was verified correct for developing (even inventing) seminal contributions to special relativity, the photoelectric effect, general relativity, and quantum mechanics, he should be considered a "failure" for not having developed a unified field theory within his lifetime, and only winning one Nobel prize instead of two!

    WTF?

  • Reply 158 of 299
    sudonymsudonym Posts: 233member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Frood View Post

     
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by docwallaby View Post

     

    Very wrong. Your statement ignores the very clear double-standard which analysts apply to Apple. Analysts set expectations unreasonably high, so high that no company could possibly achieve them. When Apple fails to reach those standards, Apple is punished even though Apple performs extraordinarily well. The stock valuation is based on Apple's failure to reach an imaginary number, not based on Apple's actual performance or reasonable expectations for Apple's future performance.

     

    In other words: analysts project Apple to have an unattainable level of success, but their valuations of Apple are largely based on failure without any regard to Apple's actual performance.

     

    It's disgusting. If Apple were understood and treated the same way as any other company ... well, there's no use wishing for that at this point. It'll never happen.


     

    No.  Their epectations sets their price.  If you feel their expectations are unreasonably high, you are saying Apple is valued unreasonably high.  At its peak it was valued at near the GDP of Switzerland.

     

    Take the passions of phone companies out of it.  You and I both own hot dog stands and sell the same product.  People love my insanely delicious hot dogs, and I sell a ton of them, but I keep everything I do secret.  You sell a pretty mean hot dog too.

     

    Analysts are asked to value our respective hot dog companies.  They predict I'm going to sell 1,000,000 and value me at $1,000,000 (just to keep it simple).  They predict you are going to sell 100,000 and value you at $100,000.   Neither of us has actually sold a hot dog in this quarter yet, but people would be willing to pay much more for my company because I'm expected to sell a lot more than you.

     

    The quarter actually happens and we post our numbers.  You sold 200,000 hot dogs.  I sold 500,000 (a record amount for me!).  Guess what?  People like my product more than yours, I sold way more than twice as many hot dogs as you did, and I am doing better business than you are.

     

    So that means my stock is going to soar, right?  Buzzzzzz.... Wrong.  My stock is going to plummet, and yours is going to soar.   But but but.... record sales!!!!!  Doesn't matter.  Sold WAY more than the competition so obviously my customers love me and will be back!  Doesn't matter.  I was valued at a company that was supposed to sell 1,000,000 hot dogs and I "only" sold 500,000.  I'm not doomed.  I'm not a failure.  People still like my product better than yours because they buy more.  I'm just not worth the $1,000,000 that I would be if I had sold 1,000,000 hot dogs.  You on the other hand, sold way fewer than I did, and your stock is soaring.  It should be.  You were valued at $100,000 based on expectations and you far exceeded them.  I'm still worth a lot more than you are :p  My shareholder are now much poorer though :(

     

    My shareholders and fans can cry a river that my hot dogs are better than anyone else's and that I sell more than anyone else.  They are absolutely right that the analysts had it all wrong.  But when they bought my shares thinking I was worth 1,000,000- the analysts had set that unreasonable expectation and they bought in to it.  I was unable to deliver- I was really only worth $500,000.  They can then cry that 1,000,000 was a totally unreasonable number and blame analysts for setting expectations so high- and they would be absolutely right.  I never should have been valued at $1,000,000 in the first place because that was based on their unrealistic expectations.

     

        Of course you'll also get the ones that say.  He sold record numbers and way more than anyone else, but his stock tanked, and that other guy sold *way* less and his stock is soaring!!! WTF!!!!  Clear sign of market manipulation!!!!!

     

    Would you at least agree that if Apple consistently sells more phones at higher profit margins, they should be worth more than if they sell fewer phones at lower margins?

     

    There are some analysts who do set lower expectations for Apple.  But since they expect Apple to sell less of their products, they also lower their valuation and price targets for Apple.  It's usually the fans that decry analysts for setting unreasonably high targets for Apple that are the same ones calling the analysts that give Apple a lower price target based on more reasonable expectations a bunch of idiots.

     

    The best part is we're now 'done' right?  I sold 500,000... you sold 200,000 so everyone has their answer and we can be 'correctly valued' easily now right?  Its the start of a new quarter and we *know* how many we just sold and what our numbers are on the spot of the moment.  What we don't know is how many we are going to sell this next quarter.   Analysts have to come up with their best guess, again (that guess being more accurately defined as the 'net present value of all future *expected* earnings), and if people value their insights and invest accordingly, the price will again move to levels based on those analysts expectations.   Rinse.  Lather. Repeat.  If you don't believe the analysts high valuation of any company because you think there is no way that company can meet their expected targets... you are saying that the company should have a lower valuation because you believe they are going to sell less product.


     

    Apple stock is way manipulated and that is why it isn't such a good investment.

  • Reply 159 of 299
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post





    What is there to say? What do it mean? Was the iPhone 5 such a slouch that it deserved to be obliterated? I would have thought the iPhone 5 (or 5C) should have a least been the low-eat tier device so they could eschew the 3.5" display of the 4S but that clearly wasn't the case but regardless, a device going away in no way means it was a failure as proofed by the iPhone 5.

     

    Were you the one who posted the original comment that elicited my response?

     

    Do you know what that person will say if Apple does drop the 5c?

     

    Why the f*ck are you talking about things you know nothing about.

  • Reply 160 of 299
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post





    Unless you assume Apple was expecting a lot more 5C sales with mid-range buyers any loss of 5C sales as 5S sales are going to be 1:1.

     

    That doesn't even make sense.

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