Basically you are simply making some kind of wild speculation based on blind faith that Apple will hit a home run with anything they do. History and rationality argue against that.
I think market share is more significant than you do. Let me give you a simple example. InCar entertainment. Over here in Germany apple has about 15% of the smartphone market. The German Auto manufacturers are unlikely to make a major commitment to an InCar entertainment technology that requires deep integration into the automation and control systems when this will NOT excite 85% of their customers. Now you may argue that people who by German HiTech autos are the same people who by Apple. I doubt that, but in any case I think the German Auto industry understand their market demographics better than Apple understands the german auto Industry International market demographics ... if you see what I mean. There will be some incentive for Apple in car as an option, but not as a core technology.
So really I think Market share is a very major aspect in every field. You may or may not agree, but the whole discussion is absurdly speculative and lacking in facts. FFS we don*t even know IF apple will enter the wearables sector, and in which context. It's unlikely to be such a hit that it will make a huge market where one doesn't exist. I am supremely sceptical that there is anything like an Apple Magic Wand.
Obviously we're all speculating here but there is a history to base my assumptions on but you don't have to listen to me. Ask any developer and manufacturer. If they're being honest, they'll tell you that they're waiting for Apple to move first. Now some of them want to work with Apple directly. Some of them want to compete with them and some of them just want to ride the wave of hype, excitement, disruption, etc. Just look at the iPhone and iPad. Software developers, accessory makers and competing products all popped up from Apple's entrance in to these markets. That was a few years ago so if you think that every company isn't looking and waiting for Apple to move, you're not paying attention.
How can anybody predict anything about "wearables", when the biggest player on the planet has not even entered the game yet?
Yep. Wearables are a hot topic at the moment, but only in terms of the tech journalism sphere I'd say. The only devices that are doing really major things out in the market are fitness-based devices like FitBit and such; and even their impacts are questionable in the longer term.
I have said this many times, but right now the wearable space is not a defined marketplace. That is, there is no break-out product in the category. I haven't seen anything yet that is a) defining the what the product should be and b) doing the kind of sales numbers to justify it being called a mass-market device.
NPD may find that the genuine break-out excitement occurs only when a defining product arrives. In that sense, the "hype" in terms of media hype might be at a high this year...but the consumer hype isn't there at all, as far as I can see.
It's all very unpredictable at the moment. But I do think that the industry is on the verge of a break out product, it's just a question of what that is.
Comments
Basically you are simply making some kind of wild speculation based on blind faith that Apple will hit a home run with anything they do. History and rationality argue against that.
I think market share is more significant than you do. Let me give you a simple example. InCar entertainment. Over here in Germany apple has about 15% of the smartphone market. The German Auto manufacturers are unlikely to make a major commitment to an InCar entertainment technology that requires deep integration into the automation and control systems when this will NOT excite 85% of their customers. Now you may argue that people who by German HiTech autos are the same people who by Apple. I doubt that, but in any case I think the German Auto industry understand their market demographics better than Apple understands the german auto Industry International market demographics ... if you see what I mean. There will be some incentive for Apple in car as an option, but not as a core technology.
So really I think Market share is a very major aspect in every field. You may or may not agree, but the whole discussion is absurdly speculative and lacking in facts. FFS we don*t even know IF apple will enter the wearables sector, and in which context. It's unlikely to be such a hit that it will make a huge market where one doesn't exist. I am supremely sceptical that there is anything like an Apple Magic Wand.
Obviously we're all speculating here but there is a history to base my assumptions on but you don't have to listen to me. Ask any developer and manufacturer. If they're being honest, they'll tell you that they're waiting for Apple to move first. Now some of them want to work with Apple directly. Some of them want to compete with them and some of them just want to ride the wave of hype, excitement, disruption, etc. Just look at the iPhone and iPad. Software developers, accessory makers and competing products all popped up from Apple's entrance in to these markets. That was a few years ago so if you think that every company isn't looking and waiting for Apple to move, you're not paying attention.
How can anybody predict anything about "wearables", when the biggest player on the planet has not even entered the game yet?
Yep. Wearables are a hot topic at the moment, but only in terms of the tech journalism sphere I'd say. The only devices that are doing really major things out in the market are fitness-based devices like FitBit and such; and even their impacts are questionable in the longer term.
I have said this many times, but right now the wearable space is not a defined marketplace. That is, there is no break-out product in the category. I haven't seen anything yet that is a) defining the what the product should be and b) doing the kind of sales numbers to justify it being called a mass-market device.
NPD may find that the genuine break-out excitement occurs only when a defining product arrives. In that sense, the "hype" in terms of media hype might be at a high this year...but the consumer hype isn't there at all, as far as I can see.
It's all very unpredictable at the moment. But I do think that the industry is on the verge of a break out product, it's just a question of what that is.