Apple could sway 35% of Android & Windows Phone buyers with bigger iPhone, survey finds
Already on track to capture nearly half of the smartphone market in 2014, Apple could dramatically expand the iPhone's customer base at Android's expense by adding a new model with a larger display, according to a survey released Tuesday by the investment arm of the Royal Bank of Canada.
After speaking with some 4,000 consumers, RBC Capital Markets found that of those planning to purchase a smartphone from Apple's rivals this year, 35 percent would instead choose an iPhone if they could have a display larger than the 4-inch part found on the iPhone 5 series. The numbers were revealed in a note to investors from RBC analyst Amit Daryanani, a copy of which was provided to AppleInsider.
Respondents were even willing pay extra for a jumbo 5.5-inch iPhone, with a $100 premium -- bringing the subsidized cost to $299 -- deemed justified for the additional screen real estate. Apple is rumored to have been exploring such an increase with its carrier partners.
Battery life, long a focal point for smartphone critics, was found to be the most important factor driving the hypothetical decision to upgrade. 33 percent of respondents listed that change first, with 23 percent choosing a larger display and 18 percent looking to processor improvements.
The traditional two-year mobile contract continues to define smartphone upgrade cycles, the survey said, though consumers are increasingly attuned to the release of new devices. 74 percent of those polled are aware of Apple's upcoming iPhone refresh, and 40 percent said that a new generation of hardware would prod them to change devices.
The latter point could prove beneficial for Apple as American wireless providers continue making moves to curb up-front handset subsidies, which are the primary reason for two-year service agreements. With no lasting contractual obligations, consumers would be free to switch to the latest and greatest at any time.
After speaking with some 4,000 consumers, RBC Capital Markets found that of those planning to purchase a smartphone from Apple's rivals this year, 35 percent would instead choose an iPhone if they could have a display larger than the 4-inch part found on the iPhone 5 series. The numbers were revealed in a note to investors from RBC analyst Amit Daryanani, a copy of which was provided to AppleInsider.
Respondents were even willing pay extra for a jumbo 5.5-inch iPhone, with a $100 premium -- bringing the subsidized cost to $299 -- deemed justified for the additional screen real estate. Apple is rumored to have been exploring such an increase with its carrier partners.
Battery life, long a focal point for smartphone critics, was found to be the most important factor driving the hypothetical decision to upgrade. 33 percent of respondents listed that change first, with 23 percent choosing a larger display and 18 percent looking to processor improvements.
The traditional two-year mobile contract continues to define smartphone upgrade cycles, the survey said, though consumers are increasingly attuned to the release of new devices. 74 percent of those polled are aware of Apple's upcoming iPhone refresh, and 40 percent said that a new generation of hardware would prod them to change devices.
The latter point could prove beneficial for Apple as American wireless providers continue making moves to curb up-front handset subsidies, which are the primary reason for two-year service agreements. With no lasting contractual obligations, consumers would be free to switch to the latest and greatest at any time.
Comments
I would probably say the percentage of people Apple will convert to iPhone from Android with the larger device will be MUCH higher than 35%.
Most people I talk to who were foolish enough to go with a large Android phone say they did so either because of the fact it was free (or heavily discounted) on contract, or because of the screen size.
While the new iPhone's won't change the minds of the cheapo's out there, those who went for size will all come clamouring back!
I think so too.
There is no logical reason for any Android owners or owners of other phones to not switch to one of the new, larger iPhone models being released. Besides having a crappy OS, Android has very little unique to offer, unless you count being the king of malware and viruses as being unique.
Apple is gonna kill it with their new iPhones.
It's going to be the most significant iPhone release ever, since the initial iPhone release.
Let's see, what would I rather own?
An Android phone, full of gimmicks and features that don't work properly and being tied into a fragmented, crappy eco system with inferior apps and second rate games that runs on a real shitty and poorly optimized OS?
Or would I rather own an iPhone, which has the best hardware and design, the best and most efficient OS, the knowledge that your phone will be supported for years to come, access to the latest and best apps and games not found elsewhere, superior Apple support should you ever need it, a great security feature called Touch ID which actually works well and so on and so on.
The choice is clear.
There are many Android people out there who are surely regretting their decisions, and a certain percentage of them will no doubt be willing to flee from the hell known as Android, as soon as they get the chance. Who doesn't want to escape from poverty?, because Android is definitely a poor man's phone.
Bigger iPhone will be easily surpassed in a month by Sammy, with a bigger phablet.
What we really need is a standardized "voice module" that governs cellular communication, and is user-swappable like a SD-card. Use the same module in your iPod, your iPad, your iBeat headset, your Macbook, MBA, iMac, television, thermostat, and automobile. Let the telecoms sell the voice module, let other companies duke it out over what hardware you put it into.
This will lead to a system where the communication follows the person, regardless of the hardware in the immediate surroundings.
Better yet, let consumers buy a "personal communicator" from the telecom of their choice, which provides cellular and wifi, which they will WEAR. Then, Apple, Sammy, etc. can sell pads, pods, computers, televisions, automibiles, whatever hardware you want, and it all connects seamlessly with your personal communicator. This way you can have and use as many of whichever products you like, and YOU will bring the communication to the device, instead of vice-versa.
I have been making that assertion for years here and certain members (usually ones with more than 2,000 posts) shouted me down and told me I was insane and a few other choice words. Nice to have actual data now to show how right I was.
35% though?
Of windows phone buyers yes (those 50 people will be there as soon as their contracts are up).
But 35% 'sway' (meaning. I WILL now buy an iPhone) of Android? That's what, 35% of 400Million sales world wide next year? 150Million? On top of the 200Million 'already gonna buy an iPhone' users?
35% of the 'big phone buyers'... maybe.
RBC of Canada must have bought a bunch of AAPL stock at 60 or less, and wants to make a killing
Let's see, what would I rather own?
An Android phone, full of gimmicks and features that don't work properly and being tied into a fragmented, crappy eco system with inferior apps and second rate games that runs on a real shitty and poorly optimized OS?
Or would I rather own an iPhone, which has the best hardware and design, the best and most efficient OS, the knowledge that your phone will be supported for years to come, access to the latest and best apps and games not found elsewhere, superior Apple support should you ever need it, a great security feature called Touch ID which actually works well and so on and so on.
If you think about it, you would probably conclude you'd rather have an Android. The reason is clear. If you owned an Android right now, you'd be looking forward to the most amazing technology upgrade of your life when the iPhone 6 comes out. How many times in your life are you going to experience such a transformation in your experience with technology? Current iPhone owners already experienced that when they switched from whatever they were using to acquire their first iPhone, and again when they got their first Mac and first iPad. That amazing euphoria is in their past. Sure, they'll be very excited about upgrading their current iPhone, as will I, to an iPhone 6, but that can't compare to the euphoria a lot of soon-to-be-ex Android owners are about to experience!
Bigger iPhone will be easily surpassed in a month by Sammy, with a bigger phablet.
What we really need is a standardized "voice module" that governs cellular communication, and is user-swappable like a SD-card. Use the same module in your iPod, your iPad, your iBeat headset, your Macbook, MBA, iMac, television, thermostat, and automobile. Let the telecoms sell the voice module, let other companies duke it out over what hardware you put it into.
This will lead to a system where the communication follows the person, regardless of the hardware in the immediate surroundings.
isn't that just an dynamic DNS name? you are XYZ.subdomain.domain.TLD whereever you go/are.
In the end, the telecoms are just big dumb pipes that can switch traffic onto other big dumb pipes. Their only value add is their mobile IP network, which I should be able to buy in 1 month and/or xxGB units, and switch by a simple updating my 'cellular' network connection (here is my list of accounts... in preferential order). Same for Cable operators, payforplay WiFi, etc.
To me, the end game of Apple's 'security program' is linking your AppleID to all your devices, and your devices all to apple through a secure PKI.
That's your 'Identity'.
[email protected] is me, and ToG's_iPhone _MBA _AppleTVinLivingRoom are all the systems that are allowed to serve 'me' to the internets.
If you think about it, you would probably conclude you'd rather have an Android. The reason is clear. If you owned an Android right now, you'd be looking forward to the most amazing technology upgrade of your life when the iPhone 6 comes out. How many times in your life are you going to experience such a transformation in your experience with technology? Current iPhone owners already experienced that when they switched from whatever they were using to acquire their first iPhone, and again when they got their first Mac and first iPad. That amazing euphoria is in their past. Sure, they'll be very excited about upgrading their current iPhone, as will I, to an iPhone 6, but that can't compare to the euphoria a lot of soon-to-be-ex Android owners are about to experience!
you buy the phone that costs less to do the job you expect it to do.
if all you do is make calls and surf the web and do facebook. you're pretty mobile.
If you happen to need a Android only feature or App, you stay on Android.
Or if you've decided your investment in learning a new mobile OS is completely spent on Kit-Kat on BlahBlah S3 5.38" phone, then you're not moving on.
Personally, I think you're mapping your iOS expectations on Android - "I just need a phone to text people on Facebook" users (which I think is the majority of the buyers... get me a cheap phone that does X, oh... this is less expensive AND has a bigger screen... big is great right? I'll buy it). They don't get new versions of OSes, they don't get phones that upgrade from their previous phones (at least not well). They make point in time purchases. Android sellers are fine with that, as it's the classic 'race to the bottom' for profit margins they are all used to do (Sell now! There is no Tomorrow!) Apple sells an ecosystem and a life experience beyond the 'one app/feature/job' Different buyer.
The text on the graph says "will you consider an iPhone" not "will you buy"
Personally, I think you're mapping your iOS expectations on Android - "I just need a phone to text people on Facebook" users (which I think is the majority of the buyers... get me a cheap phone that does X, oh... this is less expensive AND has a bigger screen... big is great right? I'll buy it). They don't get new versions of OSes, they don't get phones that upgrade from their previous phones (at least not well). They make point in time purchases. Android sellers are fine with that, as it's the classic 'race to the bottom' for profit margins they are all used to do (Sell now! There is no Tomorrow!) Apple sells an ecosystem and a life experience beyond the 'one app/feature/job' Different buyer.
Not sure about the cheaper thing. If you buy a car, you eventually want to get some of the purchase price back when you sell it on. Same for a smartphone. The iPhone has significantly higher resale value, lowering the total cost of ownership. It also has a better build quality than pretty much anything that has a significantly lower up-front price, as well as a smoother running OS and apps that are better optimized for its display. And during the time you own it, you can feel good about the fact that it is also significantly more energy efficient than the competition and has a longer useable high-functionality lifespan (through your ownership and one or two additional owners after you sell it on), thus reducing the aggregate iPhone landfill footprint versus other smartphones. There's more, like reduced privacy and malware issues versus other smartphones, a larger ecosystem of available accessories, more seamless integration across computing platforms with iPad and Mac than is provided by other smartphone/tablet/PC vendors, etc. Folks who purchase iPhones think more deeply about things than just "which gadget is cheapest that will superficially perform the functions I commonly use?"
The surveys are small relative to the amount of potential buyers. Last year, Samsung sold 314m smartphones, Apple sold 153m - the total was 1b. This survey is of 1427 people (0.0001% of buyers). If the survey is US limited then it skews the stats further. Apple has a higher smartphone sales share in the US than Samsung.
The biggest problem with Apple products has been price. That shows in the first graph. Only 12% were put off by the screen size but 3x more put off by the price. Typically the people who want a larger display also want it to cost the same or less than the current model. How many of the people who answered that they'd consider a larger iPhone only consider it if it was also comparable in price to the Android one they bought?
Then there's the ambiguity over what is meant by a larger iPhone. Here they define it to be larger than 4". I think most people who are happy with a 4" iPhone would be happy with a larger edge-to-edge display that doesn't affect the form factor of the device. 4.7" is too large to be suitable for everyone - if it wasn't, Samsung wouldn't have bothered making a Mini model. Right now, they have the Mini model at 4.5".
The surveys are small relative to the amount of potential buyers. Last year, Samsung sold 314m smartphones, Apple sold 153m - the total was 1b. This survey is of 1427 people (0.0001% of buyers). If the survey is US limited then it skews the stats further. Apple has a higher smartphone sales share in the US than Samsung.
The biggest problem with Apple products has been price. That shows in the first graph. Only 12% were put off by the screen size but 3x more put off by the price. Typically the people who want a larger display also want it to cost the same or less than the current model. How many of the people who answered that they'd consider a larger iPhone only consider it if it was also comparable in price to the Android one they bought?
Then there's the ambiguity over what is meant by a larger iPhone. Here they define it to be larger than 4". I think most people who are happy with a 4" iPhone would be happy with a larger edge-to-edge display that doesn't affect the form factor of the device. 4.7" is too large to be suitable for everyone - if it wasn't, Samsung wouldn't have bothered making a Mini model. Right now, they have the Mini model at 4.5".
If people want to continue being cheap, then let them, and they can stay with Android, as it's their breeding grounds.
The text on the graph says "will you consider an iPhone" not "will you buy"
Good point. The percentage of people who list screen size as a deciding factor is actually 12%. Another way of looking at the second chart is that at least 65% would not even consider an iPhone regardless of whether or not they offer a larger screen.
If Apple does offer a larger screen, I hope they price it identically to the smaller screen models, if the other specs match. They might be able to save some money by using less miniaturized components. I think they should avoid equating "larger" with "premium."
The surveys are small relative to the amount of potential buyers. Last year, Samsung sold 314m smartphones, Apple sold 153m - the total was 1b. This survey is of 1427 people (0.0001% of buyers).
Groan.
Another Statistics 101-challenged post..... if you're interested, here's a primer.
The surveys are small relative to the amount of potential buyers. Last year, Samsung sold 314m smartphones, Apple sold 153m - the total was 1b. This survey is of 1427 people (0.0001% of buyers). If the survey is US limited then it skews the stats further. Apple has a higher smartphone sales share in the US than Samsung.
The biggest problem with Apple products has been price. That shows in the first graph. Only 12% were put off by the screen size but 3x more put off by the price. Typically the people who want a larger display also want it to cost the same or less than the current model. How many of the people who answered that they'd consider a larger iPhone only consider it if it was also comparable in price to the Android one they bought?
Then there's the ambiguity over what is meant by a larger iPhone. Here they define it to be larger than 4". I think most people who are happy with a 4" iPhone would be happy with a larger edge-to-edge display that doesn't affect the form factor of the device. 4.7" is too large to be suitable for everyone - if it wasn't, Samsung wouldn't have bothered making a Mini model. Right now, they have the Mini model at 4.5".
"After speaking with some 4,000 consumers,"
Article disagrees with your 1427 people assertion.
There is no logical reason for any Android owners or owners of other phones to not switch to one of the new, larger iPhone models being released. Besides having a crappy OS, Android has very little unique to offer, unless you count being the king of malware and viruses as being unique.
Slow and over the plate?
iPhones cost nearly twice as much as a Nexus phone, and offer nothing more for many users. My 12-year-old was given the option to have any smartphone he wanted for his first phone, he chose a Nexus 5, and he's been using various iPod touch versions for years. He pays for the devices himself, and is very good at saving money. He used my Nexus 4 a bunch on trips to compare to his iOS 7 Touch, and very much preferred the open customization possibilities, screen, keyboard, Google Now integration, voice integration, wifi hotspot hosting, etc.
That said, I would not recommend an Android phone to my wife. They are more hands-on, and she is not as technically driven, so an iPhone is a better choice for her. I think this is true across the board -- most of my highly technical friends prefer Android and Windows Phone, and my non-tech friends prefer iPhone.
That's a generalization, but does highlight that some like one, and some like another.
They can't wait for the iPhone 6 this fall and are excited to dump the Galaxy phones.
I hesitate to call them "slow learners", so let's just say that they finally "get it".
They also purchased their first Mac last summer, a 21 inch iMac and love it, so that helps.