Why no new Powermacs at MWSF is good for Apple
As you all know, there were no new Power Macs at MWSF. After all the hype, many people on these forums criticized this move, some even saying they would switch to Wintel. However, I think that this decision will help Apple and not significantly affect anybody else.
I will be making a few assumptions here, but I think they are reasonable. I am assuming that new, significantly faster, Power Macs will be realeased by March, either at a trade show or a special event. I am also assuming that they will ship relatively soon (i.e. by the end of March).
It has been suggested that one reason that there were no Power Macs was so that they would not "steal the spotlight" from the new iMac. Furthermore, people have commentated that Apple will sell few Power Macs due to the high speed of the new iMac. This is true. However, think about what would have happened if the new Power Mac's had been released.
Before the Expo began, people who were thinking that G5's would come at MWSF were predicting ship times of March. If they had been announced, even fewer people would have bought the current Power Mac's between now and when they shipped. Thus Apple will make less money.
Now let's look at the current scenario. The new Power Mac's, possibly G5's, are announced sometime before March and are released during March. So we don't get them any later. Apple will not lose any more people to PC's, as when most people are ready to buy they will look at what's currently on the market. The sole exception may some people on these forums, who seem to be unable to differentiate between "announced" and "available." If these few people go PC, it will help Apple as fewer rumor-mongers equals less chance for some leak being publicized.
In summary, the lack of new Power Mac's announced does not really mean that Apple is making a big mistake. If you want to, go through my argument backwards; take this logic as supporting the possibility of new Power Macs, probably G5's, both being announced and shipping soon. Otherwise, take it as a sign that Steve Jobs is not stupid, as some forum members would have you believe.
I will be making a few assumptions here, but I think they are reasonable. I am assuming that new, significantly faster, Power Macs will be realeased by March, either at a trade show or a special event. I am also assuming that they will ship relatively soon (i.e. by the end of March).
It has been suggested that one reason that there were no Power Macs was so that they would not "steal the spotlight" from the new iMac. Furthermore, people have commentated that Apple will sell few Power Macs due to the high speed of the new iMac. This is true. However, think about what would have happened if the new Power Mac's had been released.
Before the Expo began, people who were thinking that G5's would come at MWSF were predicting ship times of March. If they had been announced, even fewer people would have bought the current Power Mac's between now and when they shipped. Thus Apple will make less money.
Now let's look at the current scenario. The new Power Mac's, possibly G5's, are announced sometime before March and are released during March. So we don't get them any later. Apple will not lose any more people to PC's, as when most people are ready to buy they will look at what's currently on the market. The sole exception may some people on these forums, who seem to be unable to differentiate between "announced" and "available." If these few people go PC, it will help Apple as fewer rumor-mongers equals less chance for some leak being publicized.
In summary, the lack of new Power Mac's announced does not really mean that Apple is making a big mistake. If you want to, go through my argument backwards; take this logic as supporting the possibility of new Power Macs, probably G5's, both being announced and shipping soon. Otherwise, take it as a sign that Steve Jobs is not stupid, as some forum members would have you believe.
Comments
First. I believe the whole arguement about "stealing the spotlight from xxx" is totally false and and insult to my intelligence at least. Your everyday average American Bloke juggles enough different task in their day to abolish the idea that if Apple announces more than 4 new products we will be overwhelmed. This arguement is so tired. Surely these companies don't take their users for such fools.
I agree that Apple has a choice to announce now and ship in march..or anounce AND ship in March but that's now always easy for Companies and people. Some Companies have to use up an alotted amound of funds per fiscal year. If Apple holds out too late..they possible lose these funds. Many companies only need price and sku to attach these funds to so the wait doesn't matter.
Most Business people know how to avoid the "Osborne" effect. Before new products are announced the channel is cleared as much as possible.
Perception is important. If Wallstreet expects you to announce new Powermacs then you better announce new Powermacs. The United States is a Capitalist Society... the "Bottom Line" is you need to produce to generate Capital. Excuses and Apologists are for your fanbase. Nvidia didn't overtake 3dfx and ATI because they missed most of their ship schedules. They produced when their rivals didn't.
I know the G4's are coming...we all do. But the fact is this is TWO straigh less than stellar MacWorld events and the damage is being done. Apple's reliance on Motorola has dogged them out for over 15 years. Motorola has constantly been late and when they do produce their product has been elegantly designed but insufficient performancewise. There is a reason why Apple left the 68000 Series processors for the PowerPC..and one reason was to get away from Motorola.
Apple is in a postition that has little margin for error. I will support them with my time and money but I will remain faithful to the "Bottom Line" you are either moving forward or your are falling back.
HM
I had an Amiga 500 and was desperately waiting for Workbench 3 along with the new Amiga, which was delayed time and time again. At some point I gave up hope and jumped ship to Apple.
You know what, I remember going to business school and learning why and how problems like having to deal with a company like Motorola's incompetence can kill a company. Deffinitely do not want to see it happen. But apologists are content to play the violin while in the background, Rome goes down in flames.
[ 01-10-2002: Message edited by: Kestral ]</p>
Your everyday average American Bloke juggles enough different task in their day to abolish the idea that if Apple announces more than 4 new products we will be overwhelmed .../... I know the G4's are coming...we all do.<hr></blockquote>
Yeah dude, we really need the rumored PowerMac G4 to smoke the brand new Pentium III 600MHz <img src="graemlins/smokin.gif" border="0" alt="[Chilling]" />
......is it because of our friends in Moronola? Probably.
One thing that bugs me is that Apple sits on the PowerMac and does nothing at all to it. Come on Apple. Bump the board speed. Drop the low end graphics card. Drop the price. Increase the RAM. DO SOMETHING! Larger HD. Anything.
Even if Apple didn't have processors from Mot ready yet, they surely could've done something with the PowerMacs. Even without a CPU boost, there are plenty of areas that desperately need improvement. I suppose they want to "blow us away" and package all the new stuff together at the same time, even if it means making everything wait months and months for one part...
Of course, I'm not jumping ship yet because I don't have a wad of cash burning a hole in my wallet, ready to spend on a new compuer. If I did and needed raw processing power like Leonis, I'd seriously be considering the PC alternatives.
[ 01-10-2002: Message edited by: starfleet ]</p>
<strong>Sadly, I agree with hmurchison, Leonis, and even Scott H. (never thought I'd say that!)
Even if Apple didn't have processors from Mot ready yet, they surely could've done something with the PowerMacs. Even without a CPU boost, there are plenty of areas that desperately need improvement. I suppose they want to "blow us away" and package all the new stuff together at the same time, even if it means making everything wait months and months for one part...
Of course, I'm not jumping ship yet because I don't have a wad of cash burning a hole in my wallet, ready to spend on a new compuer. If I did and needed raw processing power like Leonis, I'd seriously be considering the PC alternatives.
[ 01-10-2002: Message edited by: starfleet ]</strong><hr></blockquote>
Heh. Imagine if they had done some kind of a trivial bump of the PowerMacs at the keynote. Can you imagine the complaints and doomsaying that would have happened then? And everybody knows that the machines don't get bumped more than once every 6 months so it would be certain that WWDC or MWNY would be the earliest any real improvements could arrive. Yeah, that would have been brilliant.
If they aren't ready yet they could have pre-announced and canabilized sales for the next little while.
No, I think they weren't quite ready and decided to delay for a month. They probably decided this a month or two ago and let the PM promotion run til Feb. This lets them empty the channel as much as possible, and build as many of the new boxes as they can. The whole lime-light concept probably occured to them, but I doubt it would drive the decision making.
We ought to see something in Feb/March, and it'll probably have to last 6 months. No bets from me on what we'll see.
They weren't ready yet, but even when they are ready, the speed bump will be relatively small (i.e., just to around 1Ghz G4). That's the worst of both worlds, and that's exactly what I think is going to happen. None of the credible sources I've heard think a G5 is coming anytime soon.
You know, the Mhz gap here is not just the large gap between Macs and PCs, it's the too-small gap between old Mac and new Macs. Since the original G4 was introduced in August of 1999, 500Mhz was the top.
Now, two and a half years later, 867Mhz is the top. That's an increase of 367Mhz in two and a half years. Does anyone know how much Intel has increased during that time? 1.5Ghz?
That's a whole lot of upgrades from Mac users that they're losing. Why bother to upgrade a 1999-era G4? It's not enough of a performance increase to justify the high cost for most people. Wintel users are upgrading theirs to get faster machines.
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Heh. Imagine if they had done some kind of a trivial bump of the PowerMacs at the keynote. Can you imagine the complaints and doomsaying that would have happened then? And everybody knows that the machines don't get bumped more than once every 6 months so it would be certain that WWDC or MWNY would be the earliest any real improvements could arrive. Yeah, that would have been brilliant.
</strong><hr></blockquote>
Bingo!
-It is better to have product on hand when you announce it, so I suspect the reason there is no new Powermac is that there was no new Powermac ready to be shipped, and I suspect the part that was missing was Apollo.
-The only exception I'll make to that is for a product that is expected to 'stun' the world, and can live on buzz alone until the production lines can catch up (i.e. iMac).
-I think Apple's reliance on fewer upgrades per year than PC manufacturers should be corrected, with more frequent 'silent' revisions, and less 'major announcement' revisions.
SdC