After Apple's record setting launch, analysts predict iPhone 6 will win over Android switchers

Posted:
in AAPL Investors edited September 2014
Even without launching in China, Apple's iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus got off to a record start with 10 million units sold in three days, and analysts on Wall Street reacted Monday with enthusiasm, expressing their high hopes for this year's upgrade cycle.




Following Apple's announcement of opening weekend sales, Michael Walkley of Canaccord Genuity increased his price target on Apple stock from $112 to $115. His team conducted surveys in August and earlier this month that found the iPhone 5s remained a top selling smartphone even as hype began to build for the iPhone 6.

With the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus boasting the biggest-ever screens on Apple's smartphone lineup, Walkley believes Samsung will hurt the most from this year's refresh. He noted that initial surveys indicate a greater number of Android smartphone owners are switching to the iPhone than in previous years.

Timothy Arcuri of Cowen & Company also believes that the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus will target high-end Android switchers.

In addition, he noted that this weekend's record setting launch did not include China, while last year's debut of the iPhone 5s and iPhone 5c did. There's no word yet on when the iPhone 6 lineup might debut in China, though Arcuri believes Apple "is working feverishly" to resolve the apparent regulatory issues preventing the launch.




Many on Wall Street expect the new iPhone lineup, including greater storage capacities and the $100 premium cost of the iPhone 6 Plus, will drive average selling prices higher. Among those is Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray, who said he believes the average selling price could spike from $630 to $695 this holiday season.

He believes this could also help margins in the December quarter reach above 38 percent, while most current estimates on Wall Street have margins pegged at just under that number.

If launch sales for the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus are the same percentage of total sales that the iPhone 5s and iPhone 5c represented for the September quarter last year, it would mean sales of around 37.5 million units for this quarter, analyst Maynard Um of Wells Fargo Securities said.

Um also believes that Apple was better prepared for this year's launch with iPhone 6 inventory, as the phone did not sell out as fast as last year's iPhone 5s launch. The iPhone 6 Plus, however, has been constrained, and is currently estimated to ship from Apple's online store in three to four weeks.

Looking forward to the December quarter, analysts generally expect Apple to sell a record 60 million units in the three-month holiday period.
«134

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 69
    They all raised their estimates, while selling short. LOL...
  • Reply 2 of 69
    andysolandysol Posts: 2,506member

    The OS is massively more appealing than TouchWiz- which is simply a second-rate wanna be of iOS.

  • Reply 3 of 69
    I went to the store yesterday, and after trying iphone 6 and 6 , I felt the is too big and awkward, so I preordered the 6. But whenever I do not hold the phone, I always feel that I will regret getting a smaller one, due to battery and bigger screen. Am I making a mistake, or is it just perception due to hype over the ? Logically it makes sense to get a smaller one, as I talk on the phone alot so its more comfortable to hold, and the phone is always in my front pocket.
  • Reply 4 of 69
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by kotmar View Post



    I went to the store yesterday, and after trying iphone 6 and 6 , I felt the is too big and awkward, so I preordered the 6. But whenever I do not hold the phone, I always feel that I will regret getting a smaller one, due to battery and bigger screen. Am I making a mistake, or is it just perception due to hype over the ? Logically it makes sense to get a smaller one, as I talk on the phone alot so its more comfortable to hold, and the phone is always in my front pocket.



    There are always people who want the bigger phone, and there are always people who prefer the smaller phone. You will be right either way. Just stop worrying or second-guessing!

  • Reply 5 of 69
    Apple's best move is to funnel iPhone 6 Plus units directly to the lucrative Nagromme market. Once that market is saurated (very-low-single-digit sales volume), then and only then should they begin shipments to China and other markets.
  • Reply 6 of 69
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,491member
    kotmar wrote: »
    I went to the store yesterday, and after trying iphone 6 and 6 , I felt the is too big and awkward, so I preordered the 6. But whenever I do not hold the phone, I always feel that I will regret getting a smaller one, due to battery and bigger screen. Am I making a mistake, or is it just perception due to hype over the ? Logically it makes sense to get a smaller one, as I talk on the phone alot so its more comfortable to hold, and the phone is always in my front pocket.

    It depends on what you mostly use the phone for. For some time, I wanted the smaller phone. Using friend's large Samsung Notes, and Galaxy's, anything over 5" seemed way too large. But with what I'm reading about the feel of these phones, along with the extra feature set of the 6+, I'm now inclined to buy that model.

    Why? Well, the optical stabilization is better than the electronic version. I use my phone to take a lot of pictures, and some video, so that matters a lot to me.

    The horizontal keyboard offers keys I've wanted for years, such as arrow keys. There are times when touching small type is not easily consistant. The bigger keyboard itself will help me type more easily. Other small touches are also winning me over.

    I haven't been to the store yet because I'm waiting for the crowds to disperse, and our contract isn't over until January 1st anyway, so I haven't as yet handled them.
  • Reply 7 of 69
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,491member
    nagromme wrote: »
    Apple's best move is to funnel iPhone 6 Plus units directly to the lucrative Nagromme market. Once that market is saurated (very-low-single-digit sales volume), then and only then should they begin shipments to China and other markets.

    That's a good one.
  • Reply 8 of 69
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by kotmar View Post



    I went to the store yesterday, and after trying iphone 6 and 6 , I felt the is too big and awkward, so I preordered the 6. But whenever I do not hold the phone, I always feel that I will regret getting a smaller one, due to battery and bigger screen. Am I making a mistake, or is it just perception due to hype over the ? Logically it makes sense to get a smaller one, as I talk on the phone alot so its more comfortable to hold, and the phone is always in my front pocket.

     

    I know what you mean, I preordered the 6 thinking the 6+ would be too big and wondered if I would regret it, but so far, I don't think I'm going to (I got the 6 last week).

     

    When I first unboxed the 6 it felt much bigger than the 5 did.  I actually double checked that I hadn't received the 6+ by mistake.  Now I've used it all weekend and I've got used to it.  Picking up the 5 a few minutes ago to reset it had me surprised how small it seemed.  I guess if I'd got the 6+ I'd have made a similar adjustment, but the + does seem like it will be uncomfortable in jeans pockets etc. so I'm pleased with the decision I made.



    The only thing I don't like is the protruding camera.  I know they're at the limits of physics here, and making the camera as thin as the phone would mean degrading the quality of the camera, but it's a compromise that doesn't feel very "Apple" somehow.  I'm sure it will be fine when I get it in a case, since the camera won't protrude beyond the case, but it did have me wondering whether or not making the phone an extra 0.5mm thicker so the camera wouldn't protrude (and maybe include a slightly bigger battery), wouldn't have been better.

  • Reply 9 of 69
    Originally Posted by kotmar View Post

    Am I making a mistake, or is it just perception due to hype over the ?

     

    There’s hype over the 6 Plus? At all? As you’re buying a phone, I’d get the one usable as a phone. You made the right call.

  • Reply 10 of 69
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 6,819member

    It’s hard to believe these are the same analysts who were predicting doom just a few short months ago. But they may be right this time around. On tech sites like c|net the Fandroid crowd is particularly worked up and frenetic in their put-downs of Apple. I think they smell something in the air with this launch, something really different. The more shrill the critics get the more frightened they appear to be. They are running around with their hair on fire while their FUD blows back in their faces. It’s a site to see.

  • Reply 11 of 69
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by kotmar View Post



    I went to the store yesterday, and after trying iphone 6 and 6 , I felt the is too big and awkward, so I preordered the 6. But whenever I do not hold the phone, I always feel that I will regret getting a smaller one, due to battery and bigger screen. Am I making a mistake, or is it just perception due to hype over the ? Logically it makes sense to get a smaller one, as I talk on the phone alot so its more comfortable to hold, and the phone is always in my front pocket.

    What i do, when I want a larger display I pull out my Ipad and tether it to my phone... best of both worlds, It far better than carrying a laptop around just to check emails and surf the web.

     

    There is great video someone did showing all 3 sizes and how they fit in your pockets, they trying it all kinds of jackets and pants and your can see it really depends on how you wear your cloths, if you are into the skinny jean fad then you hate the larger phones, if you into normal size pants and jacks any phone will work.

  • Reply 12 of 69
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by kotmar View Post



    I went to the store yesterday, and after trying iphone 6 and 6 , I felt the is too big and awkward, so I preordered the 6. But whenever I do not hold the phone, I always feel that I will regret getting a smaller one, due to battery and bigger screen. Am I making a mistake, or is it just perception due to hype over the ? Logically it makes sense to get a smaller one, as I talk on the phone alot so its more comfortable to hold, and the phone is always in my front pocket.

    No. It's logical sense. For $100 more, you'll get a bigger screen, larger battery and better camera, also landscape mode...and that's considered cheap upgrade.

    I believe next year, iPhone 6S will have the same thickness as 6+ to increase the battery size to another 20% or so unless they can come up with better iOS update to extend battery life. 

    When I saw both of them in Costco, I'm divided by the decision. 6+ is very big and 6 is just not so obvious upgrade from my 5 with bumper case. so, I finally decided to go with 6+ so I don't have to look back later. It's 2 year device and I don't want to regret it after 1 year.

  • Reply 13 of 69
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Maestro64 View Post

     

    What i do, when I want a larger display I pull out my Ipad and tether it to my phone... best of both worlds, It far better than carrying a laptop around just to check emails and surf the web.

     

    There is great video someone did showing all 3 sizes and how they fit in your pockets, they trying it all kinds of jackets and pants and your can see it really depends on how you wear your cloths, if you are into the skinny jean fad then you hate the larger phones, if you into normal size pants and jacks any phone will work.


    Not everyone has both iPhone AND iPad like you. So, it's irrelevant to say so.

    BTW, those people complained about antenna band ugliness or hideous protrude camera are no where be seen in here anymore. They're probably busy to stay in line to get one. I never saw a comment about antenna bands or protrude camera after the phone launched. 

  • Reply 14 of 69
    andysolandysol Posts: 2,506member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

     

     

    There’s hype over the 6 Plus? At all? As you’re buying a phone, I’d get the one usable as a phone. You made the right call.


    I'm getting the one that is the better texting, web surfing, and email device.  I rarely use the call feature, so I'll appeal to the strengths of what I use the vast majority of the time.

     

    5.5" for me.

  • Reply 15 of 69

    Maybe Steve Jobs is going to get his thermonuclear wish.  It will be interesting to see Samsung going up in a cloud of ashes.  My biggest wish will be to see Apple Pay crush the living daylights out of Google Wallet.  I'm getting tired of hearing those Google executives boasting about how Google Wallet was first in 2011 and Apple Pay is copycat crap.  Time for Google to get its comeuppance.

  • Reply 16 of 69
    kotmar wrote: »
    I went to the store yesterday, and after trying iphone 6 and 6 , I felt the is too big and awkward, so I preordered the 6. But whenever I do not hold the phone, I always feel that I will regret getting a smaller one, due to battery and bigger screen. Am I making a mistake, or is it just perception due to hype over the ? Logically it makes sense to get a smaller one, as I talk on the phone alot so its more comfortable to hold, and the phone is always in my front pocket.

    No regrets. I preorder a 6 last week and went to Apple store to check it out. The plus is just way too big. There are lots of time where I use the iPhone one handed. The 6 is big enough for me.
  • Reply 17 of 69
    slurpyslurpy Posts: 5,116member
    10million in one weekend (with no China), predictions of an avalanche of Android switchers, and stock is not budging. Not to mention the significance of things like Apple Pay, upcoming Yosemite, upcoming iPad launches, Macs, etc.

    Fucking hilarious.

    These parasitic, snivelling little shit analysts can go **** themselves. Next month they'll be predicting doom again. No vision, perspective, insight, or understanding of the market.
  • Reply 18 of 69
    MacProMacPro Posts: 18,155member
    "After Apple's record setting launch, analysts predict iPhone 6 will win over Android switchers"

    I can see 'winning over an Android user' or 'winning back an Android switcher' but sure how you 'win over an Android switcher'.
  • Reply 19 of 69
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Slurpy View Post



    10million in one weekend (with no China), predictions of an avalanche of Android switchers, and stock is not budging. Not to mention the significance of things like Apple Pay, upcoming Yosemite, upcoming iPad launches, Macs, etc.



    Fucking hilarious.



    These parasitic, snivelling little shit analysts can go **** themselves. Next month they'll be predicting doom again. No vision, perspective, insight, or understanding of the market.

    Usually after big announcements AAPL goes into free fall. I am just happy for now, that it holds its current value.

    And hopefully slowly starts to ramp up again.

  • Reply 20 of 69
    MacProMacPro Posts: 18,155member
    Usually after big announcements AAPL goes into free fall. I am just happy for now, that it holds its current value.
    And hopefully slowly starts to ramp up again.

    You are right, I braced myself for the AAPL drop that always follows Apple success. It didn't happen!
Sign In or Register to comment.