AAPL vs DELL

snipe · February 6, 2002 11:08PM

In another thread someone suggested that Apple is getting close to Dell in stock price. Dell has 2.6 billion shares outstanding while Apple has 350 million. For Apple to reach Dells market value it would have to trade at above $200.00 a share. It might seem to some that either Dell is overvalued or Apple is undervalued. I think that the riskier investment is Dell as they are ,so far, a one trick pony (mass marketing a commodity). Apple has room to grow. Just causually reading press reports one gets the feeling that Apple has the big "M" momentum. So Apple stock, options and Leaps are attractive to me but I would be scared to short Dell because the Wall street honchos love Dell. The bright side is that almost all the anaylists who cover Apple are in Neutral. A couple have buy recommeds and there are no sells. If Apple posts better than expected earnings in April then we should get some upgrades and the stock has fairly clear sailing over $27.00 Increased market share would really send aapl up. Bias: am long AAPL

thinkingdifferent · February 6, 2002 11:43PM

I like to think that Apple is under valued.

fobie · February 7, 2002 1:18AM

..and Dell is over overvalued

snipe · February 7, 2002 1:55AM

so buy Apple calls and sell Dell calls then take a vacation

freeman · February 7, 2002 2:04AM

yeah. long lives the AAPL! <img src="graemlins/smokin.gif" border="0" alt="[Chilling]" />

blue2kdave · February 7, 2002 3:43AM

Apple and Dell are not good comparisons. As much as most Mac fans dislike Dell (for good reason), Dell has an incredibly tight operation. They are well suited to the markets they serve, and have been succesful in most new markets they enter. Dell will be around for a long time.

There are some serious doubts about other PC manufacturers at this point. If you are going to short someone, short Gateway. They are in serious trouble. They have no coporate accounts, and the consumer market is cutthroat. Dell is starting to focus on consumers as well, and that could seriously damage them.

I am optimistic on Apple too though. Because they are not involved in the price wars, and they have such a loyal user base, they are well poised to grow over the next few years. I think OSX along with continuing hardware and software innovations will drive AAPL significantly higher in the next few years.

wrong robot · February 7, 2002 5:35AM

I agree with you blue2k, I own ALOT of aapl, and I intend to hold it for a WHILE, But I also expect to be selling a large portion of it in a year or two, cause I predict aapl will raise quite a bit in a year,

with all the PC companies catching up with themselves and falling out, I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being Dell Vs. Apple as far as sonal desktop computers are concerned, I mean there probably will always be loads of tiny companys that make shitty boxes that have nothing but a 1.6 ghz cpu(I don't mean DIY boxes)

but I feel that Dell will continue to rise, to the point when they are the undisputed champs of the PC market, once this happens, it will probably help Apple alot, because then they will have less companies selling cheap computers and belittling Apples efforts, and also the consumer base will all say "hmmm Dell or Apple?" and not "hmmmm dell,compaq,gateway,Hp,IBM,emachine...etc"

and not even noticing Apple's existance

If Apple keeps up with innovating and releasing great new products and if they start more active advertising campaigns I would not be surprised at all if aapl stock triples

noahj · February 7, 2002 5:46AM

Hard to say, but I don't ever seeing it being Dell versus Apple only. The media and industry pundits like to play that up, but it is not really where it is at. Apple has a long way to go before Dell really has to worry a lot about them. And by the time Apple gets there Dell may have run themselvs out of business.

Remember Packard Bell used to be #1, then Compaq, now Dell...next? <img src="graemlins/bugeye.gif" border="0" alt="[Skeptical]" />

junkyard dawg · February 7, 2002 9:55AM

Dell is a great widget maker, I don't think the company will go anywhere but up. I wouldn't be surprised if Dell bought a few other PC makers and started to monopolize Wintel hardware sales.

Sure, Dell doesn't innovate, but they don't have to. Intel and M$ do all of Dell's R&D for them. What really trips me out is that Dell actually spends more money on R&D per year than does Apple! What the hell does Dell do with all that R&D??? It really drives home how tight an operation Apple currently is under Jobs, if you think that Apple makes all this great new hardware and totally killer software, yet spends less on R&D than Dell.

smacsteve · February 7, 2002 10:49AM

snipe, I started the "other thread" you referred to and you have a good point that the amount of shares makes it hard to compare the two. I just mean to the lay person it looks as if Apple's stock seems to be the only hardware stock that is competing with Dell (IBM not withstanding) I do agree that APPL seems to be under valued.

Gateway, well I'm just dying to see what happens to them next. It amazes me that they think that advertising unbelievably low prices and closing a few stores they'll be able to pull themselves out of the dive their in. Not to mention that idiot that talks to cows.

Let's just say that Apple has some room to grow if things continue to go well for them.

snipe · February 7, 2002 11:28AM

Gateway is looking ugly stock price wise, IBM says they are going out of the PC biz, It looks like Carly and Compaq are merging. So we have fewer players on an ever increasing playing field. All of the players, except Apple are at the mercy of M.S. and its ability to deliver an acceptible O/S. Their profit margins are to a great degree determined by what M.S. charges for their upgrades etc. Apple is wholly responsible for its success or failure. If we just stand still and the computing industry, digital hub, internet experience etc. never moves then I would bet on Dell and MS. But change (and rapid change) luckily for us, is going to continue. And smaller companies that depend on larger companies largesse are sooner or later going to be disappointed. Apple depends on smaller companies (developers etc.) but seemingly treats them with respect. MS office is the only thing I can think of now that slightly blackmails Apple. I for one am looking for a replacement after being informed by my dealer that to upgrade from office 98 to office fo OX is $450. Canadian..The point is the public is beginning to understand MS. Their publicity these days is mostly negative with security holes, lawsuits etc. Apple buzz seems mostly positive. Sorry a little off the track there but the whole picture to me is Apple up, MS down and Dell ??

Maybe Steve Jobs can tell Bill Gates some day what Vince Lombardi said after a defeat : "We did'nt lose. We just ran out of time"

torifile · February 7, 2002 11:50AM

Unfortunately, I don't think that the market thinks like most rational people do. AAPL's moves correlate highly with other computer makers, particularly Dell's despite their rather large differences in company philosophy and what they actually do. Of course, that's lost on analysts. If Dell starts to hit financial trouble (not likely in the near future), you can bet the entire sector will feel it. As it stands now, I think that AAPL will dip some before starting an upwards trend towards $30.

torifile · February 7, 2002 12:15PM

Here's a graph of aapl over the last 3 months. You can see the downward trend is starting. It looks like it'll get to about 21.5 before it starts up again... My non-scientific observation.

wrong robot · February 7, 2002 2:57PM

[quote]Originally posted by Junkyard Dawg:

<strong>Dell is a great widget maker, I don't think the company will go anywhere but up. I wouldn't be surprised if Dell bought a few other PC makers and started to monopolize Wintel hardware sales.

Sure, Dell doesn't innovate, but they don't have to. Intel and M$ do all of Dell's R&D for them. What really trips me out is that Dell actually spends more money on R&D per year than does Apple! What the hell does Dell do with all that R&D??? It really drives home how tight an operation Apple currently is under Jobs, if you think that Apple makes all this great new hardware and totally killer software, yet spends less on R&D than Dell.</strong><hr></blockquote>

They research how to get away with ripping off and copying other peoples ideas

AAPL vs DELL

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