While the teen market is certainly an important market for many apple products such as computers, phones and music players. I don't foresee the apple watch in this current iteration being a device that is aimed at teens, not in software, not in design and certainly not in price. It seems irrational to even measure this metric, might as well have asked elementary schoolers.
Speaking of school, that's where teens spend the majority of their time. They shouldn't be distracted by notifications on their wrist. Nor do they need to be reminded to stand every hour, or have schedules and mapping directions at wrist proximity. The apple watch is a companion piece for people who want to optimise their day, not a plaything for people bored during their lunch break. I can easily see a homemaker or business person using the apple watch frequently while they juggle their priorities, school kids: not at all.
I'm sure I'll see some teens with deep pockets wearing it, but I find it pretty unlikely that teens will be a major segment for this product out of the gate.
If someone is that bored, and many teens are, they'll wip their phones out, no need or a smart watch. They may buy it eventually, but they re not the first people that this thing will be marketed too. If you take inflation into account, the original Ipod was much more expensive than the 2015 watch and it is NOT teens who bought it first, That is a CERTAINTY.
The whole design screams "Teens, this is for your older, successful young adult brother/ sister." I'm more interested in hearing how young adults.. or.. say 20-40 year olds, perceive it.
One thing is for sure, I would never underestimate Apple's ability to move their products regardless of what it is. Personally, I think it's tacky, everything about the current crop of smartwatches, just screams first iteration. With most gadgets, even something as silly as a computer targeted Nerf gun for your office desk, I can find something to like about it and ultimately convince myself that I want it. With these smartwatches though, when I find myself searching there isn't a single good reason that comes to mind that isn't overpowered by my first reaction, man those things are ugly. It's not even about looks, the device is just to small to be of any use other then notifications and quick message glancing. Which might be a helpful feature if you were handicapped or the lazy type who just couldn't be bothered to reach into a pocket for their phone, but then I would prefer a premium watch, hybrid mechanical, containing a translucent display across the face so that anyone looking at it wouldn't be able tell that the watch had these capabilities. Then there is the issue of charging and battery life, maybe if these things could be recharged wirelessly but as they stand who want's to plug in their watch every single night. My nightstand already has to many cables dangling across it, it's also one more charger you have to tout around in your bag. The battery also needs to last for at least a five day work week. I put these smartwatches up their with Googles Glass concept could work one day with a lot more development going into them It's definitely one of those things that you will never need and if you do get one, will probably never actually use after the initial buy high is gone, except when showing it off to someone all the while telling them how great it is. Other then the younger generation, the under 25 crowd, I just couldn't imagine people wearing these things without the fear of looking and feeling like a complete tool.
The whole design screams "Teens, this is for your older, successful young adult brother/ sister." I'm more interested in hearing how young adults.. or.. say 20-40 year olds, perceive it.
The first girl teen blogger guru that puts her wrist up with an ?Watch attached to the "gotta have this rad matching band from (sponsored) "So-n-So"..." is going to have every Mean Girl teen fighting each other to get this new status symbol.
Most used apps: Chat Drawing and Heart Beats.
This doesn't take a marketing or ad genius to figure out, and it's the only reason that teens were asked for their opinion in the first place: they are an incredible demographic at setting trends and can not be overlooked.
Or did ya all think Jony Ive demoed the Heart Beats and "Heart-Drawing" Chat app for us old geezers, athletes, millionaires and soccer moms? What's the most used Emoji symbol and text equivalent .... and what demographic uses it the most?
@ibeam I still think the first beautiful iPhone was iPhone 4. I will get the %uF8FFWatch, but I will sell it again as soon as the form factor gets upgraded to thinner, as we all know it will.
The first girl teen blogger guru that puts her wrist up with an ?Watch attached to the "gotta have this rad matching band from (sponsored) "So-n-So"..." is going to have every Mean Girl teen fighting each other to get this new status symbol.
Do people still say "rad"? I thought it was a word from the 80's
Surveys are not really reliable, they get such varying results. The following survey for overall interest after the launch suggested 10% of people would buy one:
They conclude that to be disappointing but the numbers for people buying the iPhone 6 there aren't that much higher. iPhone 6 buyers were 68% of existing iPhone users, which wouldn't be 68% of the total. If even 1 in 7 iPhone 6 buyers got the watch, that's still 20-25m units. There's a poll here with about 10,000 votes that is pretty much 50/50 love/hate the watch:
There's a poll here with over 9,000 votes asking if a watch would be better square or round and the numbers reflect the buying trend in traditional watches with over 80% in favor of round:
The watches are very platform specific but it shows a potential 24% of the overall smartwatch market (even though that market isn't large just now).
Survey respondents are simply answering a survey question, they aren't in a store, holding a watch and making a buying decision. It's easy to say you would or wouldn't buy a watch or do or don't like a design but it's entirely different when you have to hand over $350 or more to own one.
When Apple made the first iPhone, they had a market of 1 billion phones (mostly cheap phones) and they aimed for 1% (10m units). They sell over 150m units per year. With the watch, they similarly have a market of over 1 billion mostly cheap watches and their aim could similarly be 1%. Given that it's tied to the iPhone, that caps its appeal but if 10% of compatible iPhone buyers gets one, that's actually 10% of 300m people as the compatibility spans multiple years of iPhone models. 30m units would be a pretty successful product considering smartwatches as a whole only sold 2 million units in 2013 and 7-15m projected this year and 25-60m in 2015.
It's mentioned often that people don't wear watches any more but over 1 billion people are buying them so they must be. The challenge is getting people to pay more for them in large volumes. With the phone, that was easy as there was a clear demand for high functionality on the go. I think it will be harder to do with the watch because of the downsides that include charging every day, having functionality tied to the phone making it mostly redundant and the fact they don't allow you to glance at your watch inconspicuously to tell what the time is, you have to make it very noticeable that you're checking what time it is. The sales will ultimately determine its success.
The thing is, all you doubters and naysayers who just KNOW that this going to "end up in landfills" don't have the cajones, character, or integrity to came back and acknowledge that you were wrong when you're proven to be so. There's no accountability on the internet, so all of you can be as smug as you fucking want about how this product is doomed- because when it isn't, you'll just shrug, move on, and won't bother to call yourselves out on your inane, short-sighted, moronic predictions.
When I make a prediction that turns out to be wrong, I always make it a point to go back and quote myself, and make it clear how wrong I was. Thankfully, I'm also careful with what I say, so the chances that I'll make a complete ass of myself (like many of you) is fairly slim.
Not so.
I didn't care for the iPhone when it came out, but I knew the iPad would be huge.
So my track record is 50% on those two categories.
You have a tendency to think the worst of those who you disagree with. That's a shame, because it's unbecoming.
The whole design screams "Teens, this is for your older, successful young adult brother/ sister." I'm more interested in hearing how young adults.. or.. say 20-40 year olds, perceive it.
24, I plan to buy one at launch, even knowing it might suffer the same fate as most Gen 1 Apple products. I should note I usually wear a watch ($100 Casio), but the funny thing is that I'm really not too interested in the fitness functions. I just can't wait to see what developers do with it. I had an iPod touch shortly after the first one came out, it was amazing to see how it changed over the few years it got updates. Still remember the disaster it was trying to get iPhone OS 2.0...the iPocalypse, it was deemed. Now it'd probably be UpdateGate or something stupid.
Designwise, it's unmatched as far as wearables go, I think it looks pretty nice. It's not a Rolex, but Apple isn't trying to make it one either.
The first girl teen blogger guru that puts her wrist up with an ?Watch attached to the "gotta have this rad matching band from (sponsored) "So-n-So"..." is going to have every Mean Girl teen fighting each other to get this new status symbol.
Most used apps: Chat Drawing and Heart Beats.
This doesn't take a marketing or ad genius to figure out, and it's the only reason that teens were asked for their opinion in the first place: they are an incredible demographic at setting trends and can not be overlooked.
Or did ya all think Jony Ive demoed the Heart Beats and "Heart-Drawing" Chat app for us old geezers, athletes, millionaires and soccer moms? What's the most used Emoji symbol and text equivalent .... and what demographic uses it the most?
Funnily enough, I saw the more personal communications features and thought "oh, that'll be great for couples, useless for single people though".
And as been pointed out above, it is unlikely that 'teens' represent Apple's primary target market for the iWatch. And like the iPhone and iPad before it the iWatch needs to prove its real life utility before mass success is guaranteed.
Just wait till Jimmy Iovine gets some famous boy band to wear them. Tepid will turn to HOT!
EDIT: I now see PixelDoc said the same thing ... sort of ...
24, I plan to buy one at launch, even knowing it might suffer the same fate as most Gen 1 Apple products. I should note I usually wear a watch ($100 Casio), but the funny thing is that I'm really not too interested in the fitness functions. I just can't wait to see what developers do with it.
I also plan to buy one even though I dread Apple 1.0 product (and I don't normally wear watch). The fitness aspect draws me.
Hopefully the band will survive a few generations of watches so I can buy stainless steel one I desire.
I was among the first to buy the first iPhone. I held it up before the community college class I was teaching and asked how many of them planned to get one. One hand in a class of thirty-two went up. Within two years most students in my classes had them.
This.
I remember getting the original iphone the day it came out and most of my friends and family simply did not get it, they could not understand the big deal.
Then one by one, almost everyone went to a touchscreen phone as their next phone. Very few people I know bought another flip phone or a phone with a physical keyboard as their contracts expired after the iphone was released. Translate that to the watch and apple may have another serious hit on their hands.
That being said, I was more excited for the original iphone than the new watch. But I am not really a watch person, and a smart phone is much more of a necessity than a watch.
According to a recent survey conducted by Piper Jaffray, U.S. teens show steadily increasing demand for iPhone and iPad, but are ho-hum on the prospect of Apple's upcoming Apple Watch.
The investment firm's Fall 2014 Teen Survey shows Apple is still a hot brand for America's youth, but the company's first foray into the smartwatch market is not generating the hype enjoyed by other portable products like the iPhone and iPad.
As noted by analyst Gene Munster, 16 percent of a sampling of about 7,200 teens said they were interested in "buying an iWatch for $350" when it debuts sometime next year, down from 17 percent in spring. The Apple Watch was subsequently announced in <a href="http://appleinsider.com/articles/14/09/09/apple-watch-starts-at-349-and-launches-in-early-2015">early September</a> with a starting price of $349. Only 7 percent of teens owned a smartwatch at the time the survey was taken, up one percent from spring.
"We believe that despite the timing of the survey, speculation has ramped significantly around an Apple Watch since the Spring and we would have expected to see at least a small uptick in interest from teens in the watch," Munster writes.
The analyst is sticking to a previous sales estimate of 10 million combined Apple Watch units for the 2015 calendar year.
As for the iPhone, Munster's fall survey showed 67 percent of teens owned Apple's handset, up from 61 percent in spring, and 73 percent said they expect to buy one as their next smartphone. Further, iPhone appears to be stealing marketshare from Android, which dropped five points over the same period.
Finally, the iPad also showed consistent demand over the past few months, with 66 percent of tablet-owning teens saying they owned Apple's tablet, identical to the spring survey. Of teens expecting to buy a tablet in the next six months, 60 percent are looking at an iPad Air or iPad mini.
Interestingly, Microsoft's Surface -- included for the first time in Piper Jaffray's survey-- took 10 percent of the market, with 19 percent of prospective tablet buyers expecting to pick up the hybrid device within the next six months. Munster guesses that enhanced productivity features may be driving interest in Microsoft's tablet.
Could it be because teens don't regularly spend $350 on a watch? Most ADULTS I know don't spend that kind of money on a watch.
Im sure it will sell phenomenally well regardless of this data.
Well then your demographic defines your perception. There are millions of well-off adults who spend big bucks on watches just like they spend big bucks on Coach or Dolce and Gabbana purses. Why someone would spend $900 for a purse may be unfathomable to you but it’s just a question of your socio economic stratum.
First, I never understood this issue of socioeconomic strata with regard to expensive toys. I am a physician, with a decent income. But I've worked too hard to get to where I am to piss away what money I have trying to impress strangers with new toys. I want to impress friends and family even less; I don't want it to appear that I'm rubbing into their faces that I make money than them. Fortunately, my wife is from the Philippines and doesn't have a materialistic bone in her body; she is quite practical. It is amazing how well you can dress and what nice stuff you have if you are willing to buy clearance or out of season items, or buy from a consignment store.
That being said, I've been anxious to get most of the previous Apple products. I even found myself buying an iPad I when I wasn't quite sure what I was going to do with it (but it ended up being a very nice item for us). However, with the Apple Watch, I find that I'm only vaguely interested. I can about guarantee that I won't buy the first iteration. Maybe later, when it packs more sensors and has a better battery life (then the reputed ~24 hrs on a charge it now seems to have).
I do know one thing. While I make a decent amount of money, I would see buying some "socioeconomic status" item more embarrassing than gratifying. I am not nearly so vain and insecure that I have to display symbols of wealth in order to feel good about myself (quite the opposite). As such, I'll consider the Apple Watch only when it offers me something I need. And tapping someone's wrist remotely ain't it.
Surveys are not really reliable, they get such varying results. The following survey for overall interest after the launch suggested 10% of people would buy one:
They conclude that to be disappointing but the numbers for people buying the iPhone 6 there aren't that much higher. iPhone 6 buyers were 68% of existing iPhone users, which wouldn't be 68% of the total. If even 1 in 7 iPhone 6 buyers got the watch, that's still 20-25m units. There's a poll here with about 10,000 votes that is pretty much 50/50 love/hate the watch:
There's a poll here with over 9,000 votes asking if a watch would be better square or round and the numbers reflect the buying trend in traditional watches with over 80% in favor of round:
The watches are very platform specific but it shows a potential 24% of the overall smartwatch market (even though that market isn't large just now).
Survey respondents are simply answering a survey question, they aren't in a store, holding a watch and making a buying decision. It's easy to say you would or wouldn't buy a watch or do or don't like a design but it's entirely different when you have to hand over $350 or more to own one.
When Apple made the first iPhone, they had a market of 1 billion phones (mostly cheap phones) and they aimed for 1% (10m units). They sell over 150m units per year.
With the watch, they similarly have a market of over 1 billion mostly cheap watches and their aim could similarly be 1%. Given that it's tied to the iPhone, that caps its appeal but if 10% of compatible iPhone buyers gets one, that's actually 10% of 300m people as the compatibility spans multiple years of iPhone models. 30m units would be a pretty successful product considering smartwatches as a whole only sold 2 million units in 2013 and 7-15m projected this year and 25-60m in 2015.
It's mentioned often that people don't wear watches any more but over 1 billion people are buying them so they must be. The challenge is getting people to pay more for them in large volumes. With the phone, that was easy as there was a clear demand for high functionality on the go. I think it will be harder to do with the watch because of the downsides that include charging every day, having functionality tied to the phone making it mostly redundant and the fact they don't allow you to glance at your watch inconspicuously to tell what the time is, you have to make it very noticeable that you're checking what time it is. The sales will ultimately determine its success.
Interesting stuff. Thanks Marvin.
I was skeptical to your claim that over a billion watches are sold annually worldwide, so I did a minimal amount of searching and found this:
Well, I could probably produce a survey that says the exact opposite. Posting links that support one’s opinion is about as easy as it gets on the Internet. So what’s your point?
Comments
Even if the beholder is sorely deluded. ????
At least this beholder graduated in a form of Art (Graphic Design).
yes... i trust my marketing research on the fickleness of teens.
best.apple.news.ever.
While the teen market is certainly an important market for many apple products such as computers, phones and music players. I don't foresee the apple watch in this current iteration being a device that is aimed at teens, not in software, not in design and certainly not in price. It seems irrational to even measure this metric, might as well have asked elementary schoolers.
Speaking of school, that's where teens spend the majority of their time. They shouldn't be distracted by notifications on their wrist. Nor do they need to be reminded to stand every hour, or have schedules and mapping directions at wrist proximity. The apple watch is a companion piece for people who want to optimise their day, not a plaything for people bored during their lunch break. I can easily see a homemaker or business person using the apple watch frequently while they juggle their priorities, school kids: not at all.
I'm sure I'll see some teens with deep pockets wearing it, but I find it pretty unlikely that teens will be a major segment for this product out of the gate.
If someone is that bored, and many teens are, they'll wip their phones out, no need or a smart watch. They may buy it eventually, but they re not the first people that this thing will be marketed too. If you take inflation into account, the original Ipod was much more expensive than the 2015 watch and it is NOT teens who bought it first, That is a CERTAINTY.
One thing is for sure, I would never underestimate Apple's ability to move their products regardless of what it is. Personally, I think it's tacky, everything about the current crop of smartwatches, just screams first iteration. With most gadgets, even something as silly as a computer targeted Nerf gun for your office desk, I can find something to like about it and ultimately convince myself that I want it. With these smartwatches though, when I find myself searching there isn't a single good reason that comes to mind that isn't overpowered by my first reaction, man those things are ugly. It's not even about looks, the device is just to small to be of any use other then notifications and quick message glancing. Which might be a helpful feature if you were handicapped or the lazy type who just couldn't be bothered to reach into a pocket for their phone, but then I would prefer a premium watch, hybrid mechanical, containing a translucent display across the face so that anyone looking at it wouldn't be able tell that the watch had these capabilities. Then there is the issue of charging and battery life, maybe if these things could be recharged wirelessly but as they stand who want's to plug in their watch every single night. My nightstand already has to many cables dangling across it, it's also one more charger you have to tout around in your bag. The battery also needs to last for at least a five day work week. I put these smartwatches up their with Googles Glass concept could work one day with a lot more development going into them It's definitely one of those things that you will never need and if you do get one, will probably never actually use after the initial buy high is gone, except when showing it off to someone all the while telling them how great it is. Other then the younger generation, the under 25 crowd, I just couldn't imagine people wearing these things without the fear of looking and feeling like a complete tool.
The whole design screams "Teens, this is for your older, successful young adult brother/ sister." I'm more interested in hearing how young adults.. or.. say 20-40 year olds, perceive it.
Smart guy.
The first girl teen blogger guru that puts her wrist up with an ?Watch attached to the "gotta have this rad matching band from (sponsored) "So-n-So"..." is going to have every Mean Girl teen fighting each other to get this new status symbol.
Most used apps: Chat Drawing and Heart Beats.
This doesn't take a marketing or ad genius to figure out, and it's the only reason that teens were asked for their opinion in the first place: they are an incredible demographic at setting trends and can not be overlooked.
Or did ya all think Jony Ive demoed the Heart Beats and "Heart-Drawing" Chat app for us old geezers, athletes, millionaires and soccer moms? What's the most used Emoji symbol and text equivalent
Prediction time:
The first girl teen blogger guru that puts her wrist up with an ?Watch attached to the "gotta have this rad matching band from (sponsored) "So-n-So"..." is going to have every Mean Girl teen fighting each other to get this new status symbol.
Do people still say "rad"? I thought it was a word from the 80's
http://www.themalaymailonline.com/tech-gadgets/article/apple-watch-lacks-wow-factor-poll-shows
They conclude that to be disappointing but the numbers for people buying the iPhone 6 there aren't that much higher. iPhone 6 buyers were 68% of existing iPhone users, which wouldn't be 68% of the total. If even 1 in 7 iPhone 6 buyers got the watch, that's still 20-25m units. There's a poll here with about 10,000 votes that is pretty much 50/50 love/hate the watch:
http://polarb.com/polls/204888
There's a poll here with over 9,000 votes asking if a watch would be better square or round and the numbers reflect the buying trend in traditional watches with over 80% in favor of round:
http://www.droid-life.com/2014/09/11/thursday-poll-should-a-smartwatch-be-round-or-square/
but there's a poll here with over 14,000 votes asking if the Apple one should have been round and round only comes out slightly ahead:
http://goo.gl/HQJJCh
This seems partly based on the mockups here, which are quite large: http://alcion-uxui.tumblr.com http://www.theverge.com/2014/9/11/6134981/apple-watch-round-concept-photo-essay
There's a poll here asking if Apple's watch is the best with over 3,000 votes:
http://www.phonearena.com/news/Poll-Do-you-think-the-Apple-Watch-is-the-best-smartwatch-yet_id60425
The watches are very platform specific but it shows a potential 24% of the overall smartwatch market (even though that market isn't large just now).
Survey respondents are simply answering a survey question, they aren't in a store, holding a watch and making a buying decision. It's easy to say you would or wouldn't buy a watch or do or don't like a design but it's entirely different when you have to hand over $350 or more to own one.
When Apple made the first iPhone, they had a market of 1 billion phones (mostly cheap phones) and they aimed for 1% (10m units). They sell over 150m units per year.
With the watch, they similarly have a market of over 1 billion mostly cheap watches and their aim could similarly be 1%. Given that it's tied to the iPhone, that caps its appeal but if 10% of compatible iPhone buyers gets one, that's actually 10% of 300m people as the compatibility spans multiple years of iPhone models. 30m units would be a pretty successful product considering smartwatches as a whole only sold 2 million units in 2013 and 7-15m projected this year and 25-60m in 2015.
It's mentioned often that people don't wear watches any more but over 1 billion people are buying them so they must be. The challenge is getting people to pay more for them in large volumes. With the phone, that was easy as there was a clear demand for high functionality on the go. I think it will be harder to do with the watch because of the downsides that include charging every day, having functionality tied to the phone making it mostly redundant and the fact they don't allow you to glance at your watch inconspicuously to tell what the time is, you have to make it very noticeable that you're checking what time it is. The sales will ultimately determine its success.
Not so.
I didn't care for the iPhone when it came out, but I knew the iPad would be huge.
So my track record is 50% on those two categories.
You have a tendency to think the worst of those who you disagree with. That's a shame, because it's unbecoming.
24, I plan to buy one at launch, even knowing it might suffer the same fate as most Gen 1 Apple products. I should note I usually wear a watch ($100 Casio), but the funny thing is that I'm really not too interested in the fitness functions. I just can't wait to see what developers do with it. I had an iPod touch shortly after the first one came out, it was amazing to see how it changed over the few years it got updates. Still remember the disaster it was trying to get iPhone OS 2.0...the iPocalypse, it was deemed. Now it'd probably be UpdateGate or something stupid.
Designwise, it's unmatched as far as wearables go, I think it looks pretty nice. It's not a Rolex, but Apple isn't trying to make it one either.
Funnily enough, I saw the more personal communications features and thought "oh, that'll be great for couples, useless for single people though".
Just wait till Jimmy Iovine gets some famous boy band to wear them. Tepid will turn to HOT!
EDIT: I now see PixelDoc said the same thing ... sort of ...
24, I plan to buy one at launch, even knowing it might suffer the same fate as most Gen 1 Apple products. I should note I usually wear a watch ($100 Casio), but the funny thing is that I'm really not too interested in the fitness functions. I just can't wait to see what developers do with it.
I also plan to buy one even though I dread Apple 1.0 product (and I don't normally wear watch). The fitness aspect draws me.
Hopefully the band will survive a few generations of watches so I can buy stainless steel one I desire.
I was among the first to buy the first iPhone. I held it up before the community college class I was teaching and asked how many of them planned to get one. One hand in a class of thirty-two went up. Within two years most students in my classes had them.
This.
I remember getting the original iphone the day it came out and most of my friends and family simply did not get it, they could not understand the big deal.
Then one by one, almost everyone went to a touchscreen phone as their next phone. Very few people I know bought another flip phone or a phone with a physical keyboard as their contracts expired after the iphone was released. Translate that to the watch and apple may have another serious hit on their hands.
That being said, I was more excited for the original iphone than the new watch. But I am not really a watch person, and a smart phone is much more of a necessity than a watch.
First, I never understood this issue of socioeconomic strata with regard to expensive toys. I am a physician, with a decent income. But I've worked too hard to get to where I am to piss away what money I have trying to impress strangers with new toys. I want to impress friends and family even less; I don't want it to appear that I'm rubbing into their faces that I make money than them. Fortunately, my wife is from the Philippines and doesn't have a materialistic bone in her body; she is quite practical. It is amazing how well you can dress and what nice stuff you have if you are willing to buy clearance or out of season items, or buy from a consignment store.
That being said, I've been anxious to get most of the previous Apple products. I even found myself buying an iPad I when I wasn't quite sure what I was going to do with it (but it ended up being a very nice item for us). However, with the Apple Watch, I find that I'm only vaguely interested. I can about guarantee that I won't buy the first iteration. Maybe later, when it packs more sensors and has a better battery life (then the reputed ~24 hrs on a charge it now seems to have).
I do know one thing. While I make a decent amount of money, I would see buying some "socioeconomic status" item more embarrassing than gratifying. I am not nearly so vain and insecure that I have to display symbols of wealth in order to feel good about myself (quite the opposite). As such, I'll consider the Apple Watch only when it offers me something I need. And tapping someone's wrist remotely ain't it.
Surveys are not really reliable, they get such varying results. The following survey for overall interest after the launch suggested 10% of people would buy one:
http://www.themalaymailonline.com/tech-gadgets/article/apple-watch-lacks-wow-factor-poll-shows
They conclude that to be disappointing but the numbers for people buying the iPhone 6 there aren't that much higher. iPhone 6 buyers were 68% of existing iPhone users, which wouldn't be 68% of the total. If even 1 in 7 iPhone 6 buyers got the watch, that's still 20-25m units. There's a poll here with about 10,000 votes that is pretty much 50/50 love/hate the watch:
http://polarb.com/polls/204888
There's a poll here with over 9,000 votes asking if a watch would be better square or round and the numbers reflect the buying trend in traditional watches with over 80% in favor of round:
http://www.droid-life.com/2014/09/11/thursday-poll-should-a-smartwatch-be-round-or-square/
but there's a poll here with over 14,000 votes asking if the Apple one should have been round and round only comes out slightly ahead:
http://goo.gl/HQJJCh
This seems partly based on the mockups here, which are quite large: http://alcion-uxui.tumblr.com http://www.theverge.com/2014/9/11/6134981/apple-watch-round-concept-photo-essay
There's a poll here asking if Apple's watch is the best with over 3,000 votes:
http://www.phonearena.com/news/Poll-Do-you-think-the-Apple-Watch-is-the-best-smartwatch-yet_id60425
The watches are very platform specific but it shows a potential 24% of the overall smartwatch market (even though that market isn't large just now).
Survey respondents are simply answering a survey question, they aren't in a store, holding a watch and making a buying decision. It's easy to say you would or wouldn't buy a watch or do or don't like a design but it's entirely different when you have to hand over $350 or more to own one.
When Apple made the first iPhone, they had a market of 1 billion phones (mostly cheap phones) and they aimed for 1% (10m units). They sell over 150m units per year.
With the watch, they similarly have a market of over 1 billion mostly cheap watches and their aim could similarly be 1%. Given that it's tied to the iPhone, that caps its appeal but if 10% of compatible iPhone buyers gets one, that's actually 10% of 300m people as the compatibility spans multiple years of iPhone models. 30m units would be a pretty successful product considering smartwatches as a whole only sold 2 million units in 2013 and 7-15m projected this year and 25-60m in 2015.
It's mentioned often that people don't wear watches any more but over 1 billion people are buying them so they must be. The challenge is getting people to pay more for them in large volumes. With the phone, that was easy as there was a clear demand for high functionality on the go. I think it will be harder to do with the watch because of the downsides that include charging every day, having functionality tied to the phone making it mostly redundant and the fact they don't allow you to glance at your watch inconspicuously to tell what the time is, you have to make it very noticeable that you're checking what time it is. The sales will ultimately determine its success.
Interesting stuff. Thanks Marvin.
I was skeptical to your claim that over a billion watches are sold annually worldwide, so I did a minimal amount of searching and found this:
http://www.statisticbrain.com/wrist-watch-industry-statistics/
If accurate, a couple of interesting things from the above link.
1) you are correct, 1.2 billion watches sold worldwide in 2013.
2) china and hong kong account for well over 80% of global production
3) swiss watch ASP is $739, chinese watch ASP $3 (maybe the swiss will indeed want to pay attention to apple)
4) swiss own 54% of market value (this is apples target market, its their bread and butter to own the profits)
5) only 2% of watches sold are made from precious metals
Fascinating.
Well, I could probably produce a survey that says the exact opposite. Posting links that support one’s opinion is about as easy as it gets on the Internet. So what’s your point?