Earnings preview: Wall Street expects 37M iPhones, 12M iPads sold by Apple in Sept. quarter

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 39
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,505member
    flydog wrote: »
    You know very little about how the companies you mentioned earn revenue, and apparently it is derived from walking the aisles at Home Depot than any real world knowledge.  GE, for example, derives almost a quarter of its revenue from energy and aviation.  An average GE aircraft engine lists at nearly 20 million.  The nuclear power reactors that GE builds cost billions.  

    Hey, how do you know TheOthergeoff doesn't have a source for <$700 nuclear reactors and jet engines? ;)

    To back up your excellent post: http://www.geaviation.com http://www.ge-energy.com/products_and_services/products/nuclear_power_plants/
  • Reply 22 of 39
    wizard69wizard69 Posts: 13,377member
    WallStreet hasn't gotten Apple numbers right in some time. In that regard who cares, we will get the real numbers soon.
  • Reply 23 of 39
    blah64blah64 Posts: 993member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

    My estimate is $42B revenue.

    40 million iPhones

    iPad sales will surprise to the upside


     

    Do you have anything to support these numbers, or is it a wild-assed guess like most of the "estimates" we see?  (by armchair quarterbacks and professionals)

  • Reply 24 of 39
    blah64blah64 Posts: 993member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post



    What's being ignored is the statement that Cook made during the last presentation, as well as the slide put up during that statement, when he said that sales of the new phone was much higher than last year's introduction. He said higher, and then went and said much higher.



    So unless sales took a rather large, and last minute drop, we could see higher phone sales than expected. I'm expecting 38 million, or even a bit higher. 40 million could be possible, but that's a big number.



    As for iPad sales, that's tough. I don't even know where to go with that, with the new models just now coming out.



    Mac sales should be interesting. Even Gartner and IDC are estimating an 8-9% growth. We're seeing a 1% growth estimate here. That's a big discrepancy. Growth the last two quarters were 17 and 18%, so why the sudden drop?

     

    At least someone is paying attention and doing some actual analysis.

     

    I too, took Tim Cook's words about sales being "much higher" to heart.  I think he was trying to give people a head's up without officially changing guidance, which I don't think they do at this late stage.  I expect iPhone numbers to beat estimates, based on his comments.

     

    The thing is, Apple has always telegraphed future intent.  If you go back and listen to Steve Jobs over the decades, he gave hints about where Apple was headed all the time.  He didn't come straight out and say what future products were going to be, but he was a lot more open in some ways than people gave him credit for.

     

    I totally agree on iPad sales.  Unless any of us have sales-counting monkeys out monitoring sales at retail sites (like Munster), any guesses on iPad sales are merely that - guesses.

     

    And I'm also puzzled on the Mac sales discrepancy, though I haven't been following it as closely as the iDevices lately.  Gartner isn't too bad, but I treat everything I hear from IDC as complete crap.  I can't possibly get inside their collective head, but their behavior appears to be corrupt.

     

    What I think will make a huge difference during this announcement, like usual, is guidance for earnings (next Q) and margins for both for this past quarter and guidance for next quarter.  If both of those surprise on the upside I think we could see new highs very quickly.  If not, I think we might be stuck in the current range (96-101) for a while, until the next unknown becomes a little more known.  That likely will be a better understanding of how Apple Pay is going to be accepted in the market.  I do think margins will be key for the moment.  iPhone margins may surprise to the upside, because of the way they've lured customers up the pricing scale with memory and bigger screens, but new iPads may lower margins somewhat.  I'm struggling to balance everything right now.

     

    Are you willing to make a prediction on the immediate affect this announcement will have on AAPL? I'm having a tough time right now without better clues on margins.

  • Reply 25 of 39
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by TheWhiteFalcon View Post

     

     

    Apple deserves to be punished, remember? They won't act the way these analysts predict.


     

     

    I'm expecting to see in about 6 months a lot of revenue from Apple's Pay system. I don't think the analysts quite appreciate how this is going to change the game. My mother stuffs her ID and credit cards into the case with her phone. The smart phone is an integral part of a person's day. Couple payments with more use of QC scanning and you could see a dramatic shift in how purchases are made.

     

    For more than 30 years I figured we'd have some wearable device that is part of our purchasing -- and here it (almost) is. There's no reason this couldn't be put in the new watch or even a ring.

     

    Getting a fee on transactions is what makes really rich people on Wall Street. On the downside, if Apple becomes a financial services company, their innovation may suffer as they get sucked into "moving around bits of numbers" for money. Too much money on the planet (about 40% of profits) are made with this useless activity.

  • Reply 26 of 39
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,323member
    kpom wrote: »
    But there were only 9 days (9/19-9/27) in which the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus were on sale. And the pre-orders don't count as sales until they are delivered to the customer.

    No. They count before they are delivered. It's a bit more complex than most people think. For a pickup retail sale, what you're saying is true, but not for orders. When I commit to a purchase, it's counted.
  • Reply 27 of 39
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 10,157member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by schlack View Post



    as a stock owner, i'm fearful that the market will hate apple no matter how awesome they do.



    I had to basically ‘order’ my financial adviser to add some AAPL to my IRA portfolio, even if only a token amount (28 shares). For some reason they just don’t like it. 

  • Reply 28 of 39
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,323member
    blah64 wrote: »
    <p style="color:#181818;font:13px Arial;margin:0px 0px 0px 0px;">At least someone is paying attention and doing some actual analysis.</p>

    <p style="color:#181818;font:13px Arial;margin:0px 0px 0px 0px;min-height:15px;"> </p>

    <p style="color:#181818;font:13px Arial;margin:0px 0px 0px 0px;">I too, took Tim Cook's words about sales being "much higher" to heart.  I think he was trying to give people a head's up without officially changing guidance, which I don't think they do at this late stage.  I expect iPhone numbers to beat estimates, based on his comments.</p>

    <p style="color:#181818;font:13px Arial;margin:0px 0px 0px 0px;min-height:15px;"> </p>

    <p style="color:#181818;font:13px Arial;margin:0px 0px 0px 0px;">The thing is, Apple has always telegraphed future intent.  If you go back and listen to Steve Jobs over the decades, he gave hints about where Apple was headed all the time.  He didn't come straight out and say what future products were going to be, but he was a lot more open in some ways than people gave him credit for.</p>

    <p style="color:#181818;font:13px Arial;margin:0px 0px 0px 0px;min-height:15px;"> </p>

    <p style="color:#181818;font:13px Arial;margin:0px 0px 0px 0px;">I totally agree on iPad sales.  Unless any of us have sales-counting monkeys out monitoring sales at retail sites (like Munster), any guesses on iPad sales are merely that - guesses.</p>

    <p style="color:#181818;font:13px Arial;margin:0px 0px 0px 0px;min-height:15px;"> </p>

    <p style="color:#181818;font:13px Arial;margin:0px 0px 0px 0px;">And I'm also puzzled on the Mac sales discrepancy, though I haven't been following it as closely as the iDevices lately.  Gartner isn't too bad, but I treat everything I hear from IDC as complete crap.  I can't possibly get inside their collective head, but their behavior appears to be corrupt.</p>

    <p style="color:#181818;font:13px Arial;margin:0px 0px 0px 0px;min-height:15px;"> </p>

    <p style="color:#181818;font:13px Arial;margin:0px 0px 0px 0px;">What I think will make a huge difference during this announcement, like usual, is guidance for earnings (next Q) and margins for both for this past quarter and guidance for next quarter.  If both of those surprise on the upside I think we could see new highs very quickly.  If not, I think we might be stuck in the current range (96-101) for a while, until the next unknown becomes a little more known.  That likely will be a better understanding of how Apple Pay is going to be accepted in the market.  I do think margins will be key for the moment.  iPhone margins may surprise to the upside, because of the way they've lured customers up the pricing scale with memory and bigger screens, but new iPads may lower margins somewhat.  I'm struggling to balance everything right now.</p>

    <p style="color:#181818;font:13px Arial;margin:0px 0px 0px 0px;"> </p>

    <p style="color:#181818;font:13px Arial;margin:0px 0px 0px 0px;">Are you willing to make a prediction on the immediate affect this announcement will have on AAPL? I'm having a tough time right now without better clues on margins.</p>

    Apple predicting is a sport, not a science. I normally only worry about long term, as I'm an investor, not a trader. I used to trade a lot, but not for the past ten years, or so. But, having said that, the usual is dependent on how well Apple has done compared to the average expectations, and the highs. Then we get the "whisper" numbers. Frankly, all of this is garbage.

    I'm old enough to remember that as long as a company ended up somewhere within the expectations, the stock would rise. Now, if the whisper numbers aren't broken, or at least met, the stock drops. So if Apple is at the top two thirds of the numbers, then they will be fine, as long as their guidence isn't lower than what everyone feels comfortable with. If they have at least 10% growth in sales and net, then that would be good. Guidence around $63-65 billion would be good, but not magnificent.

    Otherwise,who the hell knows?
  • Reply 29 of 39
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,323member

    I'm expecting to see in about 6 months a lot of revenue from Apple's Pay system. I don't think the analysts quite appreciate how this is going to change the game. My mother stuffs her ID and credit cards into the case with her phone. The smart phone is an integral part of a person's day. Couple payments with more use of QC scanning and you could see a dramatic shift in how purchases are made.

    For more than 30 years I figured we'd have some wearable device that is part of our purchasing -- and here it (almost) is. There's no reason this couldn't be put in the new watch or even a ring.

    Getting a fee on transactions is what makes really rich people on Wall Street. On the downside, if Apple becomes a financial services company, their innovation may suffer as they get sucked into "moving around bits of numbers" for money. Too much money on the planet (about 40% of profits) are made with this useless activity.

    While I'm eager for Apple Pay, I don't see it as having much to do with Apple's stock price as yet. Why? Because there aren't enough phones out there, and not enough terminals. After a year, or so, we should see movement.
  • Reply 30 of 39
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,323member
    sog35 wrote: »
    You should fire him on the spot.  I'm being totally serious.

    Did he recommend Apple when it was $400?  If not, you should again fire him on the spot.

    These guys are very conservative. They are more in the business of not having you lose money, than making it.

    I've a friend who asked me several years ago if I had a recommendation, as he had almost $100,000 in cash that was unexpected. I told him to buy Apple. His advisor (he has a managed account, something that I would never do) said that it was a great idea, as soon as Apple pulled back a bit. It was $220 at the time, and never pulled back. He never did buy it.
  • Reply 31 of 39
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,323member
    Hey! The new cover for my preorder of the iPad Air 2 just came in. Looks a lot like the one for my iPad Air. I just tried it on the Air. It fits exactly as before, except there must be a slight difference, which I haven't measured yet, as it just came, because the center doesn't sit completely flat without me using a finger to gently push it down. Then it moves up again. The old cover was about 0.625" high at that spot (the first bend point nearest the hinge, but the new one is up a good 0.1875".

    The new one also has slightly more texture on the inside, perhaps to be more effective in cleaning the glass.

    I'm assuming it's because there's some minor difference in the edge of the two, as the new Air 2 is thinner.
  • Reply 32 of 39
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by melgross View Post





    While I'm eager for Apple Pay, I don't see it as having much to do with Apple's stock price as yet. Why? Because there aren't enough phones out there, and not enough terminals. After a year, or so, we should see movement.

     

    10 Million iPhone 6 and 6+ sold already. Likely other iPhone 5s will be supported.

     

    Assume $100 average purchase per month with 50% conversion at 2% transaction fee and we get $10 million per month in revenue. $120 Million per year. Sure, it will take a year for anything significant to happen.

     

    Year after that, maybe $100 million revenue per month -- then people start to notice. By year 3, Microsoft will tout the "Windows RE3 Pro Sales Bank Exchange Pro" OS with "Purchase Win Pro" solution. Apple stock will take a hit.

     

     

    The point I'm making is that in 3 years, the impact will be obvious, and then you will have actually "fans" of VISA complaining about the markup of Apple when that's the markup AFTER they get a fee from VISA.

  • Reply 33 of 39
    10 Million iPhone 6 and 6+ sold already. Likely other iPhone 5s will be supported.

    Assume $100 average purchase per month with 50% conversion at 2% transaction fee and we get $10 million per month in revenue. $120 Million per year. Sure, it will take a year for anything significant to happen.

    Year after that, maybe $100 million revenue per month -- then people start to notice. By year 3, Microsoft will tout the "Windows RE3 Pro Sales Bank Exchange Pro" OS with "Purchase Win Pro" solution. Apple stock will take a hit.


    The point I'm making is that in 3 years, the impact will be obvious, and then you will have actually "fans" of VISA complaining about the markup of Apple when that's the markup AFTER they get a fee from VISA.

    In 5-10 years Apple will kick out the credit card companies and have their own banks.
  • Reply 34 of 39

    You are correct about the price following income growth.  It is pretty hard for Wall Street or anyone to pass up low PE and solid growth.  The only reason Apple needs to spend money on it's own stock is it has been so successful for so long, it has a large number of shareholders who are way overweight in this stock.  If you put 5% of a $1,000,000 portfolio in Apple during October 2004, you are sitting on $1,500,000 in Apple stock.  The rest of your portfolio is probably not much more than equal to that figure.  Apple may well grow quite a bit over the next 5 years, but you would be well served by your planning if you started selling 5 % of your holdings during each of the next 10 years.  If Apple continues to grow you would be moving assets out of your big winner and diversifying your assets.  The richest man in the world got there by doing just that with his Microsoft holdings.  Ask yourself how much Bill Gates would be worth if he had kept Microsoft as his only holding?  Adding dividends to this income and you would be looking at moving $100,000 out of Apple each year.  If Apple keeps growing at 10% per year you would still be adding to your Apple nest egg and growing your income at the same time.  If Apple grows at 20% you will have nothing to worry about.  If Apple starts losing market share or stops growing in 2 years you would have already diversified $200,000 out of Apple.  If you started this back when Apple was at $650 the first time you would be sitting pretty with a much more balanced and safer portfolio.  

     

    The above logic applies to more and more Apple owners over time and that is why there is so much downward pressure on the stock price of a very successful company.  It is to exploit this "weakness" that Apple's board has begun buying it's own business.  

  • Reply 35 of 39
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,323member
    10 Million iPhone 6 and 6+ sold already. Likely other iPhone 5s will be supported.

    Assume $100 average purchase per month with 50% conversion at 2% transaction fee and we get $10 million per month in revenue. $120 Million per year. Sure, it will take a year for anything significant to happen.

    Year after that, maybe $100 million revenue per month -- then people start to notice. By year 3, Microsoft will tout the "Windows RE3 Pro Sales Bank Exchange Pro" OS with "Purchase Win Pro" solution. Apple stock will take a hit.


    The point I'm making is that in 3 years, the impact will be obvious, and then you will have actually "fans" of VISA complaining about the markup of Apple when that's the markup AFTER they get a fee from VISA.

    10 million phones is nothing. Neither is 220,000 terminals. The 5s isn't supported other than for in app and online purchasing. You're making assumptions about amounts that you have no right to make. It's just a guess. We can't use your numbers, as they aren't based on anything.

    No one will complain about the markup as it has already been explained. Nothing to talk about there.
  • Reply 36 of 39
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,323member
    sog35 wrote: »
    If they are not in the business of making money why don't you save the MASSIVE FEES they charge and simply put your money into an index fund?

    Index funds have out performed 80% of the actively managed funds in the last 40 years.  I throw most of my money in S&P500 index funds for my 401k.  For my 401k the actively managed funds that have performed WORSE than the index yet still charged a ridiculous 3% management fee.

    Did you read the part where I said I don't use those? I buy individual stocks. I've always done better doing that. Better than the market.
  • Reply 37 of 39
    pdq2pdq2 Posts: 270member

    You know, I think if Apple can beat expectations this quarter, it's really going to stand out, and the doubters, while they will still doubt, will have a much tougher time selling their story. I mean, Samsung warned of (another) pretty horrible quarter, Google's core profits are slipping, and I doubt any of the other Android manufacturers are going to post any positive surprises. While not a real competitor, IBM's crash and burn this AM ("please- I'll give you $1.5B to take these chip plants and patents") stands as quite a contrast.

     

    Who else will come close to good news? More revenue and bigger losses from AMZN? MSFT, juggling the books and avoiding sales numbers as usual? HP?

     

    I know I'm counting my chickens here, but I don't remember a time when AAPL was so dominant in tech success.

  • Reply 38 of 39
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,323member
    sog35 wrote: »
    I was pretty darn close

    $42B revenue
    39.3 iPhones

    Yup, really on the high side. Stock is safe for now!
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