Rumor: Gold Apple Watch Edition priced up to $5,000, steel version at $500, will debut on Feb. 14

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  • Reply 141 of 247
    solipsismy wrote: »
    Those are all different SKUs based on appearance. This is atypical for Apple. Were you one of those people that said it would be single one-size-and-style-fits-all, like with other smartwatches?

    "One size fits all" means "one size fits one demographic": the gadget geek squad. When Gear was released, Samsung had an ad where two skier dudes try to get the blonde girl's attention, and Mr. Smooth has his Galaxy Gear watch, and this obviously impressed the blonde. The message is undeniable: get a Gear and girls will talk to you.

    What Apple has done with their fashion-conscious active-lifestyle watch is create something that the blonde skier girl in that ad would wear, even if she could only afford the Sport. The 38mm size and bevy of fashionable bands for any occasion make it one of the few smartwatches that could transcend the male gadget enthusiast demographic.
  • Reply 142 of 247
    MarvinMarvin Posts: 14,803moderator
    malax wrote: »
    The audience for the high end watches are people with income in the millions, not assets in the millions.

    The Swatch Groups owns multiple Swiss brands including Tissot and Omega and their financials are here:

    http://www.swatchgroup.com/en/investor_relations/annual_and_half_year_reports/annual_report_2013

    Combined income is ~$9b with ~23% net profit margin (close to Apple's net margin). The whole Swiss market is around $54b so Swatch represents a large portion. I didn't know Seiko was the same company as Epson who make the printers. Their financials are here but it looks like $1.7b for electronics and they made a net loss last year:

    http://quicktake.morningstar.com/stocknet/secdocuments.aspx?symbol=sekey

    Citizen made $3b of which $1.5b was watches and clocks with 5% net margin:

    http://www.citizen.co.jp/global/ir/library/pdf/AR2014.pdf

    If any single brand sold only $5k watches, the total unit volume could be no more than about 300k units. That would be a best-case. The vast majority of watches sold aren't near this price.

    There are 12m millionaires worldwide so they could well cover a good portion this market but it's a small market.

    I'd say it's too small a volume at this price point considering the effort that went into the straps. It would be silly to have a price gap between models of $4500 for the exact same functionality. If someone weighed both the gold and silver models, we'd know roughly the amount of gold used. Experts and jewelers have said $1200 retail price with material cost of $600:

    http://techcrunch.com/2014/09/12/the-gold-apple-watch-could-cost-as-much-as-1200/

    The unnamed source this article mentions is probably the same kind of person that came up with a first year volume of 65m units.

    The launch date of Valentines day is an interesting choice, possibly a bad one as people need to give gifts on Valentines day and spend time with partners. They probably want to make a big deal out of the sketch app they have and sharing heartbeats. I foresee much disappointment if that's the plan ('aww you didn't get me the gold one').
  • Reply 143 of 247
    ipenipen Posts: 410member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by bdkennedy1 View Post



    And in 5 years when Apple stops supporting it and the battery won't hold a charge anymore, it will be worth $100.

     

    Software can always be upgraded and supported, just will be running a little "slower" on the 5 yr old hardware.  Who knows, if it's still working after 50 yrs., it may summon a few millions for you.

  • Reply 144 of 247

    Count me absolutely OUT. I will stick with my RADO, thanks.

  • Reply 145 of 247
    pazuzupazuzu Posts: 1,728member
    That is one f'ugly $5,000 purchase if ever there was one.
    I agree with the other poster- YUCK.
  • Reply 146 of 247
    pazuzupazuzu Posts: 1,728member
    ipen wrote: »
    Software can always be upgraded and supported, just will be running a little "slower" on the 5 yr old hardware.  Who knows, if it's still working after 50 yrs., it may summon a few millions for you.

    My iPhone 4S used now as an iPod can barely hold a charge and how old is that ?
  • Reply 147 of 247
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    What Apple has done with their fashion-conscious active-lifestyle watch is create something that the blonde skier girl in that ad would wear, even if she could only afford the Sport. The 38mm size and bevy of fashionable bands for any occasion make it one of the few smartwatches that could transcend the male gadget enthusiast demographic.

    1) I got a lot of negative comments when I suggested Apple would probably have to go down this route if they were to create such a product. Sometimes, you can't do the same thing over no matter how successful it's been the past (e.g.: Windows desktop on tablet).

    2) I suspect Apple's ads will be highly focused on the emotional side while showing a variety of fashion-use examples. Using your example, the female skier might have the 38mm ?Watch, a guy might have the 42mm ?Watch Sport for skateboarding (not sure if it'll have at least IP67 rating so avoiding my first choice, surfing), and a more distinguished man or woman, might have ?Watch Edition that goes with their outfit. Really the possibilities are endless because the range is very large with so many fashion options. I also expect the ads to focus more on non-geeks, unlike how other "smartwatches" are marketed. Id est, we won't see a high-tech ad where the ?Watch transforms.

    3) Presumably, this is the first time Apple has used the same chip for different sized devices. Sure, the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus, and the iPad Air 2 and iPad Mini 3 use the same basic main board components, but they aren't the same board. The 38mm and 42mm ?Watches appear to use the exact same S-Series CoC, which is unique for Apple as far as I can tell.

    4) I don't think I've ever been this excited about a product I have no interest in buying (at this point). Perhaps it's the unanswered questions, the drastically new territory, and/or the unique tech being introduced, but it's exciting.
  • Reply 148 of 247
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismY View Post





    1) I got a lot of negative comments when I suggested Apple would probably have to go down this route if they were to create such a product. Sometimes, you can't do the same thing over no matter how successful it's been the past (e.g.: Windows desktop on tablet).



    2) I suspect Apple's ads will be highly focused on the emotional side while showing a variety of fashion-use examples. Using your example, the female skier might have the 38mm ?Watch, a guy might have the 42mm ?Watch Sport for skateboarding (not sure if it'll have at least IP67 rating so avoiding my first choice, surfing), and a more distinguished man or woman, might have ?Watch Edition that goes with their outfit. Really the possibilities are endless because the range is very large with so many fashion options. I also expect the ads to focus more on non-geeks, unlike how other "smartwatches" are marketed. Id est, we won't see a high-tech ad where the ?Watch transforms.



    3) Presumably, this is the first time Apple has used the same chip for different sized devices. Sure, the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus, and the iPad Air 2 and iPad Mini 3 use the same basic main board components, but they aren't the same board. The 38mm and 42mm ?Watches appear to use the exact same S-Series CoC, which is unique for Apple as far as I can tell.



    4) I don't think I've ever been this excited about a product I have no interest in buying (at this point). Perhaps it's the unanswered questions, the drastically new territory, and/or the unique tech being introduced, but it's exciting.



    I'm glad Apple is starting to enter new product categories (not terribly excited about Beats, but I am interested to see where they take it). Watches are another infant category for new ideas and I expect there to be a lot of innovation rather quickly now that Apple is in the mix.

  • Reply 149 of 247
    asciiascii Posts: 5,936member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by pazuzu View Post



    That is one f'ugly $5,000 purchase if ever there was one.

    I agree with the other poster- YUCK.



    Photographs never do justice to jewellery items. You have to see them in person to really appreciate the craftsmanship.

  • Reply 150 of 247
    roake wrote: »

    I don't think that word means what you think it means.
    Watches are from the steam era. Round pocket watches near the beginning, round wrist watches near the end of the era.
    There is no reason watches are round today except nostalgia.
    Amplify this nostalgia and you get steampunk.
  • Reply 151 of 247

    I predict a huge number of services cropping up to gold-plate steel iWatches. Colorware are you ready?

  • Reply 152 of 247
    darkpawdarkpaw Posts: 212member

    <Where's the bloomin' delete option?>

  • Reply 153 of 247
    darkpawdarkpaw Posts: 212member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismY View Post

    Quote:

    If they package them up together, they'll have 10 Sport edition with the blue strap and 10 with the green strap, which is fine for 10 of the 20 people who wanted the blue strap, IYSWIM.




    I don't understand that sentence. There are only 10 ?Watch Sport options altogether. They only show 2 ?Watch Sport with the blue strap (38mm and 42mm in silver aluminum), and the same for green, pink and white. For the 5th colour they have a black band, which also comes with the space grey aluminium, instead of silver. That's 10 SKUs in all.

     

    I don't mean there's 10 SKUs. I mean, they'll have 10 of one version in the store with the blue strap, and 10 with the green strap. Only 10 people who wanted a blue one will be able to get it, and the others will either have to suck it up with a green strap, or wait.

     

    IMHO, Apple should let you choose the strap you want, rather than having a watch and a strap in one box (because, as I say, they may not have the combination you want in stock).

  • Reply 154 of 247
    malaxmalax Posts: 1,598member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Roake View Post

     



    As a doctor myself, with an income higher than the average lawyer, I can assure you that the average doctors and lawyers are not millionaires.  There are exceptions to the rule.

     

    There are basically two kinds of doctors (with regard for expenditures), the conservative doctor that saves for retirement and lives within his/her means, and the doctors that go nuts with debt and have to work ALL the time just to pay the monthly bills; the latter are the doctors you see with a million-dollar house and the luxury cars... always just one step ahead of bankruptcy.  I have a very modest house, two vehicles in a 4-person family (both of which we purchased used), and no special luxury items (no pool, no vacation house, we don't buy expensive jewelry or even watches, etc.).  My wife is a native of another country, and we do save up and travel there every 3-years or so, but that's about it for unusual expenses, and when we make that trip, we don't stay in fancy hotels; we fly economy, and stay in places that are affordable.  When we travel within the US, we drive.  I'm not sure how people get the idea that being a doctor means you are filthy rich.


    I believe the generally accepted definition of a millionaire is (something along the lines of) "has cash and investments (not including primary residence) of at least $1,000,000."  So there are lots and lots of basically middle class people who are technically millionaires.  My point was that that's not a useful threshold for figuring out who can afford to throw $5000 at a watch without breaking a sweat.  I agree that the average doc is not going to rush out and buy the Apple Watch Edition edition.  That's targeted at people who have incomes, not net worths, in the millions.  Someone here asserted that 0.5% of Americans have incomes of $2M+.  I suspect that that's way off, but take it at face value for a minute.  That would mean that just in the US there are 1.5 million people with that kind of disposable income.  Sell an Edition watch to 5% of them for $5000 and you've grossed a third of a billion dollars.

  • Reply 155 of 247
    I was lead to believe that the stainless steel version is the $350, with the sport either cheaper or more expensive then that, not sure that even at this point apple decided exact prices, just estimates.
  • Reply 156 of 247
    malaxmalax Posts: 1,598member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by darkpaw View Post

     

     

    I don't mean there's 10 SKUs. I mean, they'll have 10 of one version in the store with the blue strap, and 10 with the green strap. Only 10 people who wanted a blue one will be able to get it, and the others will either have to suck it up with a green strap, or wait.

     

    IMHO, Apple should let you choose the strap you want, rather than having a watch and a strap in one box (because, as I say, they may not have the combination you want in stock).


    It will be interesting to see how Apple handles this.  I suspect that you'll only be able to get every combination if you order online.  Otherwise, there will be a small subset available as pre-bundled options.  E.g., perhaps the space grey one only comes with a black band if you're grabbing one at Target.

     

    edit: Actually look at the page for the Sports version of the watch (at the very bottom).  It says "View all 10 models in the collection." and then shows 5 color combinations each in 2 sizes.  If you want a black metal, you get a black band.  If you want a colorful band to go with it, order a second band.  That's my assumption at this point.  http://www.apple.com/watch/apple-watch-sport/

     

    All told Apple appears to be committed to 34 models.  "The Edition collection features six uniquely elegant expressions of Apple Watch." "View all 18 models in the collection." (for Apple Watch) "View all 10 models in the collection." for Apple Watch Sport.

     

    Interestingly, one of the band options for the steel Apple Watch is the Sport Band.  I expect that is the $350 option.  The other bands are going to be more expensive, and the Apple Watch Sport might be more expensive.

  • Reply 157 of 247
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    darkpaw wrote: »
    IMHO, Apple should let you choose the strap you want, rather than having a watch and a strap in one box (because, as I say, they may not have the combination you want in stock).

    In terms of inventory and storage there is definitely logic to what you suggest, but from a sales perspective I don't see that happening.
  • Reply 158 of 247
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Curtis Hannah View Post



    I was lead to believe that the stainless steel version is the $350, with the sport either cheaper or more expensive then that, not sure that even at this point apple decided exact prices, just estimates.

     

    I thought the steel was an upgrade from the base case material (aluminum?)

  • Reply 159 of 247

    Paying that much money for a watch that will eventually be obsolete because it's a tech watch? No way. Spending that much on a rolex watch that never be obsolete? Sure. I can understand that. I can't afford it, but I can understand it. 

  • Reply 160 of 247
    Can't wait to get that gold one!

    When I sell a limb or two ;) (not the arm though)

    If they do announce some sort of maintenance schedule to upgrade the watch then I would seriously consider the gold. It'll be like nothing else.

    The only problem I see is if the internal CoC is being replaced there won't be as much hype around the "new version of the ? Watch" as there is with all the other products.

    "New ? Watch internals just annouced. Be prepared to wait in line to..uhh..get your watch updated."

    Realistically I'm targeting the sport model. I want to wear it when doing my extracurricular activities.
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