Shares of Apple reach new all-time high, break record market cap at $659B valuation [u]

124

Comments

  • Reply 61 of 88
    rogifan wrote: »
    philboogie wrote: »
    Now this has become pathetic, to the point of, I dunno, stop being annoyed I guess.

    And posters on the Verge are ripping on Jony Ive for complaining about copying. Considering Samsung's laptops are either Windows or Chrome, their phones are mostly Android and their watches are Android and Tizen where is the flow? Samsung is desperate for relevance. They want to be the fourth company next Apple Google and Microsoft. The problem is they don't really have an ecosystem as they don't control the underlying software. And they don't have brand cache like Apple does. They spent all this money on advertising but all it did was fire up the anti-Apple trolls on tech sites. it didn't endear anyone to the company or the brand. As we can see now people are more than happy to leave Samsung for Apple or cheaper Chinese brands. What's the stickiness with Samsung? There isn't any. Plus consumers don't really seem interested in migrating to a third mobile OS so any plans Samsung has on ditching Android and creating their own is doomed to failure.

    Yeah, just yesterday, I tried to use SammyPay at several stores ...
  • Reply 62 of 88
    pdq2pdq2 Posts: 270member

    In (not-quite direct) contrast is news today that Intel's mobile unit continues to bleed red big time:

     

    Investors Business Daily:

     


    Intel's (NASDAQ:INTC) Mobile and Communications Group will lose $4 billion in 2014, forecasts Morgan Stanley

     

    "While we do expect that phasing out tablet (computer) subsidies over the course of 2015 will cause modest reduction in losses, it could also blunt the company's momentum in tablets significantly."Eliminating these losses would require either massive revenue gains, or massive expense cuts, and we don't see a clear scenario for either of them."



     

    What momentum? Assuming shrinking Intel subsidies makes Surface tablets even more expensive, I don't exactly see sales of the latter taking off with anyone but IT zombies.

     

     

    IBD again:

     


    Intel isn't the only chipmaker struggling in wireless as growth in smartphone shipments slow globally despite Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) launch of the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus. Broadcom is exploring strategic options for its cellular baseband business, including a potential sale or wind-down, amid stiff competition among chipmakers. 

     

    Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM), meanwhile, recently forecast fiscal 2015 revenue below analysts expectations.

     





    While I think it's rather incredible that Apple could bring chip design in-house and make a better go of it than the dedicated chipmakers, that seems to be exactly what is happening.

  • Reply 63 of 88
    mvigodmvigod Posts: 172member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

    So you are saying Apple may drop in the next 3 years.  Thats a pretty lame prediction. 

     

    Please explain why Apple's cash flows will drop significantly in the next 12 months.

     

    Saying that Fall 2012 is the same as Fall 2014 is foolish.  There is a HUGE difference between Apple in 2012 and Apple in 2014.  That you don't know the difference shows your lack of financial knowlege. 

     

    And what have you done with all your vast financial knowlege?  This year alone I've made $50,000 on Apple stock and options.  What have you done?


     

    I explained why apple cash flows will drop but again you will see ipad continue the decline to lower levels.  What the zealots don't realize is these drops I predict are from very high levels which were never sustainable.  ipad has been in YOY decline the last few quarters and will continue.  I agree with KGI's 40% YOY drop for ipad.  iPhone has to fill that gap just to get to zero growth or beyond.

     

    Apple is so big now the only needle mover is iPhone. It is a one product company. The market cap where it is TODAY almost 100% relies on this one single product.  Post iPhone 6 large screen catalyst there won't be another this big anytime soon.  People have wanted large screens for a long time.  Apple went halfway there with the 5 which gave that phone life.  Now again with the 6 but they are out of bullets with that feature.  You will see a decline in the next 12-36 months in this product as well. When Wall Street gets the slightest whiff of this you won't get out in time.  IT will be extremely fast and some profit you had will be lost depending on your cost basis.

     

    I know nobody who is long the stock wants to hear this. When I was long shares I fought everyone who said anything negative about apple or the stock. I get it.  It's your money and love for the company here.  Sell your stock and stay out of it for 30 days.  You would be amazed how your opinions get clear when you have no vested interest either way.  I did this and decided the safest way to play apple was short PUTS.  This is a hedge of what is essentially a bullish position but with a huge margin of safety for downside.  I think apple will hold the 75 to 85 range once my scenario plays out, and it will.  My advice to all is just to time your exit.  You may have more upside but find your way out before traders see the whites of apple's iphone eyes and realizes trees don't grow to the moon.

  • Reply 64 of 88
    rogifan wrote: »
    philboogie wrote: »
    Now this has become pathetic, to the point of, I dunno, stop being annoyed I guess.

    And posters on the Verge are ripping on Jony Ive for complaining about copying. Considering Samsung's laptops are either Windows or Chrome, their phones are mostly Android and their watches are Android and Tizen where is the flow? Samsung is desperate for relevance. They want to be the fourth company next Apple Google and Microsoft. The problem is they don't really have an ecosystem as they don't control the underlying software. And they don't have brand cache like Apple does. They spent all this money on advertising but all it did was fire up the anti-Apple trolls on tech sites. it didn't endear anyone to the company or the brand. As we can see now people are more than happy to leave Samsung for Apple or cheaper Chinese brands. What's the stickiness with Samsung? There isn't any. Plus consumers don't really seem interested in migrating to a third mobile OS so any plans Samsung has on ditching Android and creating their own is doomed to failure.

    I guess The Verge will keep on having those posters.

    Samsung is probably not in trouble, due to their massive stake in the manufacturing of tech, but it does look like they're shrinking in relevance, purely in terms of consumer interest. Their phone market share will shrink with Apple's 6 Plus, their computers indeed look like also-ran and they don't seem to have any incentive products to entice consumers to buy their brand over, say, Lenovo (or whatever is in the top 5 nowadays)

    So, in short, I agree with you. One thing though, and this may very well not be of disagreement, I do think they are here to stay. Obviously not Samsung the conclamorate but also Samsung Electronics. They are such a humongous corp I don't see them go belly under anytime soon. Or anytime for that matter.
  • Reply 65 of 88
    malaxmalax Posts: 1,598member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by mvigod View Post

     

    I know nobody who is long the stock wants to hear this. When I was long shares I fought everyone who said anything negative about apple or the stock. I get it.  It's your money and love for the company here.  Sell your stock and stay out of it for 30 days.  You would be amazed how your opinions get clear when you have no vested interest either way.  I did this and decided the safest way to play apple was short PUTS.  This is a hedge of what is essentially a bullish position but with a huge margin of safety for downside.  I think apple will hold the 75 to 85 range once my scenario plays out, and it will.  My advice to all is just to time your exit.  You may have more upside but find your way out before traders see the whites of apple's iphone eyes and realizes trees don't grow to the moon.


    I wish Tim had had your advise to rely on over the past few years, then the Apple product pipeline wouldn't be completely empty.  Because of course Apple is a one-product company and their entire strategy is "make more iPhones."  Too bad they aren't an innovative market leader that has shown time after time that they can create new products and new product categories that change the world and make nearly unimaginable profits.  Wait, what?

     

    But say I was to take your unsolicited advice and sell the AAPL shares that I have been acumulating over the past decade, what would you have me invest in? Maybe a nice safe money market fund or a 12 month CD at 0.4%?

  • Reply 66 of 88
    mvigodmvigod Posts: 172member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by malax View Post

     

    I wish Tim had had your advise to rely on over the past few years, then the Apple product pipeline wouldn't be completely empty.  Because of course Apple is a one-product company and their entire strategy is "make more iPhones."  Too bad they aren't an innovative market leader that has shown time after time that they can create new products and new product categories that change the world and make nearly unimaginable profits.  Wait, what?

     

    But say I was to take your unsolicited advice and sell the AAPL shares that I have been acumulating over the past decade, what would you have me invest in? Maybe a nice safe money market fund or a 12 month CD at 0.4%?


     

    I owned apple at $1.20 split adjusted and sold when the stock hit 500 (presplit) and redeployed my cash but not into a CD.  Not sure why you would suggest such a conservative choice.  I put most of my very large profits into Mastercard, Celgene and Visa which have done quite well.    I also wrote large number of PUT contracts short for Apple which are now all 99% profit and expiring this january at 100% barring an apple fall under 87.50.  

     

    Of course you have to choose what you want to move money into if you take profits on something.  That is up to you and your own homework and situation.  

     

    As far as apple innovating new products that are successful they have yet to do so under Cook.  The iWatch will be the first test.  Do you predict it will have iphone success or even ipad success or more like Apple TV success.  You do realize Apple TV doesn't move the needle whatsoever for Apple, right?  Until something comes out under Cook that didn't involve Jobs that has needle moving success you shouldn't count your chickens.

     

    You can stick with apple.  It's your money.  Nobody forcing you to buy, sell or hold.  All up to you.  Just do your homework and be aware of the environment and the possible permutations that may occur going forward.  

  • Reply 67 of 88
    mvigodmvigod Posts: 172member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

    First off do you even know what percentage of profits come from iPad?

    What percentage of profits come from iPhone?

     

    If you can't answer those questions than you have done a crappy  analysis.

     

    So now KGI knows EXACTLY how many tablets Apple will sell in the next 6 months?  Sure.  By the way Apple's iPad units were down YoY last quarter yet the PROFITS were still up 20% and the stock up 15%.  Explain that.

     

    And if Apple was really going to drop to $70 do you think Apple would buy back $20,000,000,000 in shares last quarter at $95-$100?  Really?

     

    If you are short PUTS you are doing a bullish bet.  Why don't you buy PUTS if you are so confident the stock will tank.

     

    Frankly your analysis is poor and weak.  Citing a drop in iPad units is not a good reason for a 30-40% drop in share price.  The last 3 quarters iPad unit sales have been down yet the share price is up 40%. 


     

    Yes here are the percentages of revenue and profits by product for apple.

     

    http://www.macrumors.com/2014/10/20/apple-earnings-fiscal-2014/

     

    http://appleinsider.com/articles/14/10/20/apple-sets-new-sept-quarter-record-earning-421b-in-revenue-on-sales-of-39m-iphones

     

    KGI has been the most accurate to date on apple and their pipeline.  

     

    Why were profits up 20%?  Some due to increased sales for the quarter. Also the aggressive buyback is responsible for some of that.  

     

    You have two other headwinds you might want to keep in mind.  The irish double dutch tax game is over.  Apple will be paying MORE in taxes going forward. Not a trivial amount either.  It was good while it lasted but that loophole is done ( read here: http://www.forbes.com/sites/robertwood/2014/10/14/ireland-corks-double-irish-tax-deal-closing-time-for-apple-google-twitter-facebook/ )

     

    The 2nd headwind is the law of large numbers.  If you have 160B in annual revenue and want to grow 20% you need to find 32B in additional revenue.  That is an enormous task.  For comparison if you are doing 50B in revenue you need only find an incremental 10% in revenue.  In other words as you get bigger the amounts you must find get increasingly and exponentially larger.

     

    To answer your PUT question.  Yes I am bullish on apple above 75 to 85 over the next few months to a year max.  After that I am very bearish from 12 to 36 months after the iphone 6 "mother of all upgrades" (as cook put it) runs its course.  I will buy puts as this time approaches but between now and the next 6 to 12 months I don't see Wall Street seeing what's coming until it is right in front of their nose.  

     

    Also an ipad drop of 40% would not be a 40% drop in share price.  Read my posts. Never said that.  The reason will be the drop in iphone growth going out past this iphone 6 cycle along with ipad declines.  Apple is the iphone company now with most of the profits coming from there.  For anyone to think at this size (650B) and the growth required that they can do this for another 8 to 10 years at a 5% to 10% annual growth.  

     

    For those who are long I say don't sell yet.  Just keep these things in mind. Watch for them.  Decide for yourself when you want to exit to preserve your profits or buy PUTS to protect yourself as apple laps the iphone 6 launch upgrade.  As I said the danger zone is around 12 to 36 months from now.  Just be alert.  Alot will also depend on how much apple runs up between now and then.  The higher it runs in the near term would be more reason to consider an exit sooner.  To exemplify this imagine if Apple becomes the momo darling and runs to 300/share by next month.  It is almost a 2 trillion company there trading at a crazy multiple.  Would you sell?  I'm sure most who are sane would.  Well reality says that sane number to sell it is much lower than 300.

  • Reply 68 of 88
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,922member
    mvigod wrote: »



    I'll see you back here in 12 to 36 months where I predict, on record, that apple will be trading in the 70 to 85 per share range.  Talk to you in that time period.  In the meantime time your exit accordingly.    

    So your prediction window is two years? Are you kidding me? It may happen on a blip. Be more courageous. Give a more precise prediction.
  • Reply 69 of 88
    mvigodmvigod Posts: 172member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

    Wow you must be really deep in the game.  never heard of iWatch from Apple.

     

    sure you bought it at $1.20. And i bought it at 10 cents.  lot of story tellers here

     

    I feel sorry for you.  You missed the move up from $500 to $800. 

     

    So Apple is such a bad stock to buy Mr Financial Genuis tell us what is a good stock to buy right now?

    Hope that company you suggest has a Steve Jobs and an iPhone like product waiting in the wings next year.

    So tell us what company to invest in instead of Apple.

     

    Then lets track that company's results with Apple for the next 12 months.


     

    I already wrote where I deployed my apple profits.  read up on my posts.  And yeah I bought apple at 8 bucks and change a very long time ago before the split.  It served me well in retirement and regular accounts.  

     

    As far as the move from 500 to 800 it really only matters where the money was deployed.  It is jumping from one horse onto another.   I sold during apple's conf call when cook failed to do a huge buyback or dividend in 2012.  Yup sold after hours that he was that dumb and didn't get it (yes he finally did later).  Anyway he did me a favor.  The horses I jumped on have done just fine compared to apple.  Celgene, Mastercard.  Here are the returns from my sell date and immediate redeployment into Celgene and Mastercard on Jan 28th, 2012:

     

    Click for chart:  http://yhoo.it/1wufppi

     

    Celgene: Up 195%

    Mastercard: Up 139%

    Apple: Up 74%

     

    In addition to redeployment of all the apple proceeds into these winners I wrote a ton of PUT contracts at much lower strike prices with far out dates (at the time).  Those all expire at 100% profit this january.  Those didn't require me to lay out any money for those who understand puts.  I took the proceeds and  levered up even further into Celgene and Mastercard.  No complaints from me.  Had Cook done what I wanted on that call and issued a large dividend and massive buyback (he did neither then) I would have held all the long shares and not been up quite this far.  

     

    Remember Apple is not the only stock out there that has done well and will do well.  Plenty of other names out there with lots more upside unless you think Apple will double and become a 1.3 trillion market cap.   I'll be hunting for 10 baggers while you wait for apple to find its way to 6 trillion from here.  

  • Reply 70 of 88
    mvigodmvigod Posts: 172member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

    Lets look at mvigod's history.

     

    This is what he posted on April 23, 2014

    http://forums.appleinsider.com/t/178784/as-apples-growth-slows-media-questions-if-patience-resolve-of-wall-street-investors-will-last#post_2521436

     

     

    Stock price on that date he posted this was $73.86.  Stock is now $113.

     

    The stock is up 53% since he posted this. 

    The stock is up 53% since he said growth is OVER and Apple is not a good stock to buy.

     

    How much more WRONG can a person get.

     

    You were right about one thing.  We will never see $600 again.

     

    You were so WRONG the last 6 months I'm surprised you have the BALLS to come here to give stock advice again.  If someone actually listened to you in April they would have lost out on a 53% profit.


     

    Difference is I will be right.  One cannot account for short term trading sentiment.  I don't look at quarters but several years and long trends.  Over a year or so anything can happen in any stock.  How many of you think Tesla, Amazon, GoPro or Netflix are accurate representations of their underlying worth right now?  Anything can happen over the short term.  

     

     

    Per Graham and Buffett " in the short term, the stock market behaves like a voting machine, but in the long term it acts like a weighing machine (i.e. its true value will in the long run be reflected in its stock price)"

  • Reply 71 of 88
    mvigodmvigod Posts: 172member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by jungmark View Post





    So your prediction window is two years? Are you kidding me? It may happen on a blip. Be more courageous. Give a more precise prediction.

     

    Sorry but no such thing as precise in stock "trading" over short term.  Over the long term is different:

     

     Warren Buffett and Ben Graham said "in the short term, the stock market behaves like a voting machine, but in the long term it acts like a weighing machine (i.e. its true value will in the long run be reflected in its stock price)"

     

    Ignore that at your own peril

  • Reply 72 of 88
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mvigod View Post

    How many of you think Tesla, Amazon, GoPro or Netflix are accurate representations of their underlying worth right now?  Anything can happen over the short term.  

     

     

    Per Graham and Buffett " in the short term, the stock market behaves like a voting machine, but in the long term it acts like a weighing machine (i.e. its true value will in the long run be reflected in its stock price)"


    That's excellent advice from Graham and Buffett, and one we should all heed.

     

    At the current market cap of ~$650B, Apple's operating assets -- which are the ones that pretty much produce all of the earnings -- are worth ~$500B. I know there's some debt, but let's ignore it (it's not a huge amount).

     

    In other words, at $500B, the trailing P/E of Apple's operating assets is <14x. The forward P/E is <12x.

     

    Why don't you do a similar calculation -- it's quite easy to do -- for Tesla, Amazon, Google, GoPro, LinkedIn, Netflix, Twitter, Alibaba, etc. and tell us why you think Apple might be (remotely) like any one of them?

  • Reply 73 of 88
    jfc1138jfc1138 Posts: 3,090member
    n/m

  • Reply 74 of 88
    Thursday AAPL closing: $112.82. W00t
  • Reply 75 of 88
    quinneyquinney Posts: 2,528member
    mvigod wrote: »


      I also wrote large number of PUT contracts short for Apple which are now all 99% profit and expiring this january at 100% barring an apple fall under 87.50.  
    ...

    So are you going to leave your short position open for another two months to get that last 1%?
  • Reply 76 of 88
    mvigodmvigod Posts: 172member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by quinney View Post





    So are you going to leave your short position open for another two months to get that last 1%?

     

    No. I will close out after January 1 to put the gain into 2015.  I am already well into the Obama bonus tax bracket this year and don't want to push more income into this years level.   I could let them expire in January as expiration is before earnings so I don't see even my highest strike price PUT getting hit (87.50/share) barring a nuclear war or ebola pandemic black swan type event.

  • Reply 77 of 88
    chasmchasm Posts: 2,501member
    Some sites (and I'm not blaming AI here, they're quoting others) can't do their math.

    The previous all-time market cap high was $665.7B, reached in September 2012. Source: Forbes, which shows its work on how it got that figure:

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2014/08/19/have-apples-shares-really-hit-an-all-time-high/

    Close, but no cigar today. Quite possibly, however, it will break the record tomorrow.
  • Reply 78 of 88
    bugsnwbugsnw Posts: 717member

    Someone asked why Apple purchasing a ton of shares hasn't affected their market cap.

     

    As Apple buys shares, their earnings per share outstanding go up. If nothing else changes, the PE ratio (Price divided by those increasing earnings) goes down.

     

    Market psychology probably kicks in and the participants seek out balance. An investor who yesterday was willing to pay $20 for every $1 in earnings is still willing to pay that, even though that morning Apple purchased a bunch of shares, mathematically lowering their PE down below 20.

     

    The market priced in a certain market value for Apple. Investors were willing to pay so much per $1 in earnings. Those factors probably combine to rapidly correct for Apple taking shares out of circulation.

     

    So the price per share goes up, the PE increases to its previous value, and the market valuation remains stable.

     

    You have to factor a bit of elasticity in this scenario as well as future expectations, generally positive, that arise from buybacks.

  • Reply 79 of 88
    OK. If Apple where a country...

    Moved up to place 30. Between South Africa and Philippines.
    And before Switzerland, Venezuela and United Arab Emirates.
    Creepy ;-).
  • Reply 80 of 88
    macspotter wrote: »
    OK. If Apple where a country...

    Moved up to place 30. Between South Africa and Philippines.
    And before Switzerland, Venezuela and United Arab Emirates.
    Creepy ;-).

    Apple should be a country.
Sign In or Register to comment.