Okay... now the pump and dump has officially begun...
That is the first thing I thought.
Don't get me wrong I see some really positive signs and expect things like Apple Oay to be bigger than some here want to belive. However I still see this as naked stock manipulation.
Don't get me wrong I see some really positive signs and expect things like Apple Oay to be bigger than some here want to belive. However I still see this as naked stock manipulation.
Unlike you, at least one person thought that I had written something totally different than what I actually said.
Like you, I too think that Apple has lots of potential... but statements from hedge funds that talk about trillion dollar market cap... pfffffft...
mvigod is just bitter because he sold all his Apple stock earlier this year for $500. Like a bunch of other investors he pannicked and got fooled by Wall Street manipulation.
Since then mvigod has been going on rants to justify him selling his Apple stock at $500. Its up 60% since he sold and he's very bitter and is hoping Apple tanks.
I see a lot of guys like that. People call me up constantly asking for advice. It's a difficult call at times, but I usually tell them to hold, unless the stock is down, when I tell them to buy.
But mvigod, and other like him really don't understand market psychology. They think it's all numbers, when it clearly it's not. They don't look far enough around the market to see that what they say is only true in a few cases, and not even all the time. I've done well because I don't pat strict attention to the numbers. You also need to know where a company is relative to its peers. You have to know what customers, and potential customers are thinking, and you have to have some idea why Wall Street investors are doing what they are doing.
For example, when the stock began its drop around the end of the third quarter of the year in 2012, it was because hedge funds, and some other large investment firms were fully load in Apple, and with the sharp rise in the stock during the 2010-2012 perios, they were busily selling off to lock in those massive profits. That resulted in the drop in late 2012, which continued during early 2013. That drop made the rest of the market nervous, and with the slight drop in Apple's net, insured a continued drop through the middle of 2013. But by the middle of the year, hedge funds, and other investment firms began again to load up on Apple, and the rising net helped that to continue.
Anyone who knew what was going on could see exactly what happened there, and why it was a bad idea to unload their stock. But those who had no idea of what was happening, and why, did unload their stock to disasterous results.
Ok, cool, keep your Apple stock. Hopefully, no one is betting on one horse!
I'm not sure I get your point. Everything could go down in a correction. Apple dropped by more than a half during 2007. I bought another 1,000 shares then. It cost $80 thousand, which is not a lot from an investment perspective. What is that worth now? Exactly!
Unlike you, at least one person thought that I had written something totally different than what I actually said.
That happens a lot on these forums.
Like you, I too think that Apple has lots of potential... but statements from hedge funds that talk about trillion dollar market cap... pfffffft...
I can see Apple getting there eventually, but "news releases" like this just smack of attempts at short term manipulation. Beyond that I see some markets taking far longer to firm up and become viable than some would like, Apple Watch comes to mind here. I'm not sure if Apple can move technology forward fast enough to make Apple watch a success for normal people. On the other hand I see Apple Pay as having huge potential and likely very fast adoption.
The stock has gone up 60% since mvigod said this. LOL.
Really? Read what I wrote about the only way it would go up. It required a large buyback. That was the caveat. Do you really think they would be going up without the buyback and split? Do you know how much of the EPS growth is from the very buyback I said was required for apple to again breach $600? It's not insignificant. I was wrong when I said I didn't believe cook was that smart to do a massive buyback. Apparently he changed his tune and did it. Kudos to him for the financial engineering.
Also note that apple is no longer a debt free company. I see people posting all the stock prices ex-cash. How about ex-cash net of debt. Do you know how much debt apple carries right now foreign and domestic?
I also see some people here talking all about psychology. Well you saw some apple psychology when it went from 705 to 385. You think that will never happen again? All psychology towards apple and the stock will always be glowing right? Have you invested for long and seen how wall street works? If not you will soon enough.
As far as me selling apple yes I did. But that doesn't mean I have regrets. A regret would be if I left the large proceeds in cash or put it into a stock that did not do as well. Take a look at Celgene and Mastercard which is where the apple funds were deployed from the Jan conf call date to present. I did just fine Both outperformed the beloved apple. What some of you don't realize here is that even if one stock goes up others can actually go up more. Apple was not the leading stock in the S&P 500 folks.
Like I said many times before. We will see what happens in the next 12-36 months. I believe that is enough time for the realization that the watch won't move the needle. ApplePay is not a needle mover (they get 15 cents on every $100 which will amount to peanuts). iPhone cycles will lengthen and there is margin and carrier subsidy risk. Xiaomi is eating up share in China. China also pushing carriers to cut subsidies. All I'm saying is watch the data and trends and measure your risk. Try to find the top or near it and time your exit. Good luck all.
There is a HUGE difference between Apple late 2012 and now.
First off from 2010- mid 2012 Apple was growing earnings/revenue at a massive pace. It was growing 50-100% a quarter. Than at the end of 2012 beginning of 2013 revenue growth all but stalled and earnings growth went negative. That is a HUGE SHIFT. Because of this tons of GROWTH investors and HEDGE FUNDS dumped their stock. It took a very long time for the VALUE investors to become fully invested in Apple. That transition destroyed Apple's stock price.
Fast forward to 2014. Apple again is growing earnings at 15-20%. But since most of the Growth investors are already out the price has been steady. Even if Apple has a bad quarter the stock will stabalize because of the massive buyback, nice dividend, and the shareholder profile of value/income investors.
Saying that one bad quarter of iPhone sales will tank the stock is stupidity. Thats like saying one bad quarter of hamburger sales at McDonalds will tank the stock or one bad quarter of oil sales will tank Exxon.
Hey let's not forget it was one really good quarter (calendar Q4 2011) that let expectations get out of hand with Wall Street expecting margins of over 40% as far as the eye could see and record profits every quarter. Really the only difference between now and 2012/13 is Wall Street isn't panicked about Samsung like they were back then.
... or... if the Apple Watch doesn't zoom to record sales in the first quarter.
... or... if the iPad has a 9 million unit sales quarter.
... or.... all three together.
I find it funny that some people condemn Wall Street when AAPL is used as a pissing post but the minute that Wall Street starts touting AAPL as the next big thing and will exceed expectations... well, then Wall Street is everybody's momma.
I'm not as concerned about iPad as I think Wall Street has basically given up any expectations on that product. But ?Watch, for sure. We're already seeing crazy talk about potential sales so I expect some firms will throw numbers out there Apple intermally never would expect to meet and then claim the product is a failure if it doesn't meet those lofty expectations.
I'm not sure I get your point. Everything could go down in a correction. Apple dropped by more than a half during 2007. I bought another 1,000 shares then. It cost $80 thousand, which is not a lot from an investment perspective. What is that worth now? Exactly!
Is the market up ten times since then? Exactly!
I don't want to speak for him, but my point was exactly what you're confirming: it's very possible that AAPL will be lower than it is today (perhaps much lower) a year and a half from now. I believe that Apple's market cap will hit $1T someday, but I just accept that there could be a massive correction during the next year or 2 that would push that date well into the future. If the Asian and European economies go into recession, all bets are off for ever-growing Apple sales and AAPL share prices.
Yeah yeah, the last time someone bang up the drums for 1 trillion dollar market cap, Apple dived from $700 to $385 a share. It was right after the release of the iPhone 5, which was a "large screen iPhone" at the time. Back then the media sounded like Apple was dying because of Samsung.
Now that the stock has split and we are at $114 and odd ($800 pre-split), the trillion dollar drum sounds again. Financial analysts were nothing but a bunch of jerks, simply following the herd. Did any of these recommend buying Apple way back at $400?
One difference, now people aren't so skiddish about tim cook... Back then people thought Apple was sure to nose dive without Steve. Now tims done something more difficult than people give him credit for, keeping Apple on the right track.
I can tell you didn't even bother to run the numbers or look at Apple's SEC filings. There is litearlly almost ZERO chance this is $60 next year unless we are in WW3
If reminding people that over the past decade there have been at least 4 instances when everyone was bullish on AAPL right before massive (30-50%) drops in AAPL share price makes me a "really bad investor" then guilty as charged. Or, since I wasn't actually making a doom-and-gloom prediction or giving advice, I could just be someone providing some historical context. And if you read what I said, the price could be anywhere from $60 to $180, so even that statement suggests that the low end of that is extremely unlikely.
Damn, some people bought a lot of Apple stock and did quite well...I was busy buying Apple product, making them rich....hmmm
What I see is people hanging on to old iPads because the new one doesn't seem to be enough of an upgrade. The new iPhones have bigger screens and aging people with aging eyes needed bigger everything since Ive has decided to go wispy text on light backgrounds. That was an obvious upgrade trigger, as someone already posted, and sales reflect that.
I think Apple has plenty of innovation left and that's my metric. It will probably be a combination of gradual improvement mixed with sexy and innovative. I'm thinking better screen technology that makes for sharper, better screens mixed with some battery innovation that kicks up battery life significantly.
That's how I see it. Keep the gradual improvement cycle going and when it's mated to a new idea or innovation, that's where the massive upgrade cycle will come from, driving profits through the roof.
By the way, that includes Software innovation as well. I would immediately upgrade my Apple TV if the new one made it possible to run iOS apps and games on my TV. In fact, I think Apple is leaving some ecosystem stickiness on the table as far as their desktops go. I don't see why we can't run iOS apps on our Desktop Macs within a window.
I don't see Apple's future declining...I see billions of devices that will get upgraded en masse as Apple mixes gradual improvement with big leaps in technology.
One difference, now people aren't so skiddish about tim cook... Back then people thought Apple was sure to nose dive without Steve. Now tims done something more difficult than people give him credit for, keeping Apple on the right track.
Good point. It is easy to forget the days when that market assumed that Apple's fortunes would rise and fall with Steve's health. Hopefully we're completely past that now.
Good point. It is easy to forget the days when that market assumed that Apple's fortunes would rise and fall with Steve's health. Hopefully we're completely past that now.
Really? Read what I wrote about the only way it would go up. It required a large buyback. That was the caveat. Do you really think they would be going up without the buyback and split? Do you know how much of the EPS growth is from the very buyback I said was required for apple to again breach $600? It's not insignificant. I was wrong when I said I didn't believe cook was that smart to do a massive buyback. Apparently he changed his tune and did it. Kudos to him for the financial engineering.
Also note that apple is no longer a debt free company. I see people posting all the stock prices ex-cash. How about ex-cash net of debt. Do you know how much debt apple carries right now foreign and domestic?
I also see some people here talking all about psychology. Well you saw some apple psychology when it went from 705 to 385. You think that will never happen again? All psychology towards apple and the stock will always be glowing right? Have you invested for long and seen how wall street works? If not you will soon enough.
As far as me selling apple yes I did. But that doesn't mean I have regrets. A regret would be if I left the large proceeds in cash or put it into a stock that did not do as well. Take a look at Celgene and Mastercard which is where the apple funds were deployed from the Jan conf call date to present. I did just fine Both outperformed the beloved apple. What some of you don't realize here is that even if one stock goes up others can actually go up more. Apple was not the leading stock in the S&P 500 folks.
Like I said many times before. We will see what happens in the next 12-36 months. I believe that is enough time for the realization that the watch won't move the needle. ApplePay is not a needle mover (they get 15 cents on every $100 which will amount to peanuts). iPhone cycles will lengthen and there is margin and carrier subsidy risk. Xiaomi is eating up share in China. China also pushing carriers to cut subsidies. All I'm saying is watch the data and trends and measure your risk. Try to find the top or near it and time your exit. Good luck all.
There's no evidence that the buybacks contributed to this rise by more than just a bit. There's never evidence that buybacks do that. It's Apple's rising sales and profits that have done most of it.
You're painting a picture that's possible, but not likely. Apple Pay is being estimated to be a major source of profits for Apple, but it will take a good two years for enough new phones and new terminals in retail to get there. Apple knows this, and so does the financial community, from what I've been reading. The watch should do well. If Apple just sells 10 million a year, at an average price of $450, let's say, and they get an average of $400 from each sale, taking into account that they won't be selling all of them, then that's an additional $4 billion a year. It doesn't seem like much, but it's additional to the bottom line. Meanwhile, Apple Pay is thought to possibly add as much as $3 billion of pure profit to Apple by 2017. That's equal to $15 billion in sales.
So Apple can certainly add to its bottom line with these new product categories, in addition to increasing sales elsewhere. Last year, Apple increased earnings by about 14%, and so far this year, it's over 18%. So they can manage 15-20% if they do well.
As far as subsidies go, I believe that there's a panic over that that makes no sense. Cook announced that already, 75% of Apple's phone sales are unsubsidized. That's not much different than anyone else's phone sales.
I don't want to speak for him, but my point was exactly what you're confirming: it's very possible that AAPL will be lower than it is today (perhaps much lower) a year and a half from now. I believe that Apple's market cap will hit $1T someday, but I just accept that there could be a massive correction during the next year or 2 that would push that date well into the future. If the Asian and European economies go into recession, all bets are off for ever-growing Apple sales and AAPL share prices.
The thing that's being missed here is that anything can go off the rails, and it has nothing to do with the premise that was brought up. Of course, if there's a massive market correction, as Carl is saying there will be sometime out to the next five years, then every expectation for the market will drop. So what? That's not the point. We could be hit by a massive asteroid, and civilization might fall. So what?
We can't think like that. If we do, we might as well stop investing altogether and buy gold and gemstones, as a friend insisted I do back in 2007. Good thing I didn't listen.
Comments
That is the first thing I thought.
Don't get me wrong I see some really positive signs and expect things like Apple Oay to be bigger than some here want to belive. However I still see this as naked stock manipulation.
The whole market is up, so of course Apple is up.
Apple could go down in a correction.
Ok, cool, keep your Apple stock. Hopefully, no one is betting on one horse!
That is the first thing I thought.
Don't get me wrong I see some really positive signs and expect things like Apple Oay to be bigger than some here want to belive. However I still see this as naked stock manipulation.
Unlike you, at least one person thought that I had written something totally different than what I actually said.
Like you, I too think that Apple has lots of potential... but statements from hedge funds that talk about trillion dollar market cap... pfffffft...
I see a lot of guys like that. People call me up constantly asking for advice. It's a difficult call at times, but I usually tell them to hold, unless the stock is down, when I tell them to buy.
But mvigod, and other like him really don't understand market psychology. They think it's all numbers, when it clearly it's not. They don't look far enough around the market to see that what they say is only true in a few cases, and not even all the time. I've done well because I don't pat strict attention to the numbers. You also need to know where a company is relative to its peers. You have to know what customers, and potential customers are thinking, and you have to have some idea why Wall Street investors are doing what they are doing.
For example, when the stock began its drop around the end of the third quarter of the year in 2012, it was because hedge funds, and some other large investment firms were fully load in Apple, and with the sharp rise in the stock during the 2010-2012 perios, they were busily selling off to lock in those massive profits. That resulted in the drop in late 2012, which continued during early 2013. That drop made the rest of the market nervous, and with the slight drop in Apple's net, insured a continued drop through the middle of 2013. But by the middle of the year, hedge funds, and other investment firms began again to load up on Apple, and the rising net helped that to continue.
Anyone who knew what was going on could see exactly what happened there, and why it was a bad idea to unload their stock. But those who had no idea of what was happening, and why, did unload their stock to disasterous results.
I'm not sure I get your point. Everything could go down in a correction. Apple dropped by more than a half during 2007. I bought another 1,000 shares then. It cost $80 thousand, which is not a lot from an investment perspective. What is that worth now? Exactly!
Is the market up ten times since then? Exactly!
I can see Apple getting there eventually, but "news releases" like this just smack of attempts at short term manipulation. Beyond that I see some markets taking far longer to firm up and become viable than some would like, Apple Watch comes to mind here. I'm not sure if Apple can move technology forward fast enough to make Apple watch a success for normal people. On the other hand I see Apple Pay as having huge potential and likely very fast adoption.
Lets look at mvigod's history.
This is what he posted on April 23, 2014
http://forums.appleinsider.com/t/178784/as-apples-growth-slows-media-questions-if-patience-resolve-of-wall-street-investors-will-last#post_2521436
The stock has gone up 60% since mvigod said this. LOL.
Really? Read what I wrote about the only way it would go up. It required a large buyback. That was the caveat. Do you really think they would be going up without the buyback and split? Do you know how much of the EPS growth is from the very buyback I said was required for apple to again breach $600? It's not insignificant. I was wrong when I said I didn't believe cook was that smart to do a massive buyback. Apparently he changed his tune and did it. Kudos to him for the financial engineering.
Also note that apple is no longer a debt free company. I see people posting all the stock prices ex-cash. How about ex-cash net of debt. Do you know how much debt apple carries right now foreign and domestic?
I also see some people here talking all about psychology. Well you saw some apple psychology when it went from 705 to 385. You think that will never happen again? All psychology towards apple and the stock will always be glowing right? Have you invested for long and seen how wall street works? If not you will soon enough.
As far as me selling apple yes I did. But that doesn't mean I have regrets. A regret would be if I left the large proceeds in cash or put it into a stock that did not do as well. Take a look at Celgene and Mastercard which is where the apple funds were deployed from the Jan conf call date to present. I did just fine
Both outperformed the beloved apple. What some of you don't realize here is that even if one stock goes up others can actually go up more. Apple was not the leading stock in the S&P 500 folks.
Like I said many times before. We will see what happens in the next 12-36 months. I believe that is enough time for the realization that the watch won't move the needle. ApplePay is not a needle mover (they get 15 cents on every $100 which will amount to peanuts). iPhone cycles will lengthen and there is margin and carrier subsidy risk. Xiaomi is eating up share in China. China also pushing carriers to cut subsidies. All I'm saying is watch the data and trends and measure your risk. Try to find the top or near it and time your exit. Good luck all.
Hey let's not forget it was one really good quarter (calendar Q4 2011) that let expectations get out of hand with Wall Street expecting margins of over 40% as far as the eye could see and record profits every quarter. Really the only difference between now and 2012/13 is Wall Street isn't panicked about Samsung like they were back then.
I'm not as concerned about iPad as I think Wall Street has basically given up any expectations on that product. But ?Watch, for sure. We're already seeing crazy talk about potential sales so I expect some firms will throw numbers out there Apple intermally never would expect to meet and then claim the product is a failure if it doesn't meet those lofty expectations.
I'm not sure I get your point. Everything could go down in a correction. Apple dropped by more than a half during 2007. I bought another 1,000 shares then. It cost $80 thousand, which is not a lot from an investment perspective. What is that worth now? Exactly!
Is the market up ten times since then? Exactly!
I don't want to speak for him, but my point was exactly what you're confirming: it's very possible that AAPL will be lower than it is today (perhaps much lower) a year and a half from now. I believe that Apple's market cap will hit $1T someday, but I just accept that there could be a massive correction during the next year or 2 that would push that date well into the future. If the Asian and European economies go into recession, all bets are off for ever-growing Apple sales and AAPL share prices.
One difference, now people aren't so skiddish about tim cook... Back then people thought Apple was sure to nose dive without Steve. Now tims done something more difficult than people give him credit for, keeping Apple on the right track.
you are a really bad investor.
I can tell you didn't even bother to run the numbers or look at Apple's SEC filings. There is litearlly almost ZERO chance this is $60 next year unless we are in WW3
If reminding people that over the past decade there have been at least 4 instances when everyone was bullish on AAPL right before massive (30-50%) drops in AAPL share price makes me a "really bad investor" then guilty as charged. Or, since I wasn't actually making a doom-and-gloom prediction or giving advice, I could just be someone providing some historical context. And if you read what I said, the price could be anywhere from $60 to $180, so even that statement suggests that the low end of that is extremely unlikely.
Damn, some people bought a lot of Apple stock and did quite well...I was busy buying Apple product, making them rich....hmmm
What I see is people hanging on to old iPads because the new one doesn't seem to be enough of an upgrade. The new iPhones have bigger screens and aging people with aging eyes needed bigger everything since Ive has decided to go wispy text on light backgrounds. That was an obvious upgrade trigger, as someone already posted, and sales reflect that.
I think Apple has plenty of innovation left and that's my metric. It will probably be a combination of gradual improvement mixed with sexy and innovative. I'm thinking better screen technology that makes for sharper, better screens mixed with some battery innovation that kicks up battery life significantly.
That's how I see it. Keep the gradual improvement cycle going and when it's mated to a new idea or innovation, that's where the massive upgrade cycle will come from, driving profits through the roof.
By the way, that includes Software innovation as well. I would immediately upgrade my Apple TV if the new one made it possible to run iOS apps and games on my TV. In fact, I think Apple is leaving some ecosystem stickiness on the table as far as their desktops go. I don't see why we can't run iOS apps on our Desktop Macs within a window.
I don't see Apple's future declining...I see billions of devices that will get upgraded en masse as Apple mixes gradual improvement with big leaps in technology.
I think he qualified his comment nicely. Let's remember he usually states an opinion as a fact. This is progress. We should be encouraging it.
One difference, now people aren't so skiddish about tim cook... Back then people thought Apple was sure to nose dive without Steve. Now tims done something more difficult than people give him credit for, keeping Apple on the right track.
Good point. It is easy to forget the days when that market assumed that Apple's fortunes would rise and fall with Steve's health. Hopefully we're completely past that now.
Good point. It is easy to forget the days when that market assumed that Apple's fortunes would rise and fall with Steve's health. Hopefully we're completely past that now.
Until Tim catches the flu or something.
There's no evidence that the buybacks contributed to this rise by more than just a bit. There's never evidence that buybacks do that. It's Apple's rising sales and profits that have done most of it.
You're painting a picture that's possible, but not likely. Apple Pay is being estimated to be a major source of profits for Apple, but it will take a good two years for enough new phones and new terminals in retail to get there. Apple knows this, and so does the financial community, from what I've been reading. The watch should do well. If Apple just sells 10 million a year, at an average price of $450, let's say, and they get an average of $400 from each sale, taking into account that they won't be selling all of them, then that's an additional $4 billion a year. It doesn't seem like much, but it's additional to the bottom line. Meanwhile, Apple Pay is thought to possibly add as much as $3 billion of pure profit to Apple by 2017. That's equal to $15 billion in sales.
So Apple can certainly add to its bottom line with these new product categories, in addition to increasing sales elsewhere. Last year, Apple increased earnings by about 14%, and so far this year, it's over 18%. So they can manage 15-20% if they do well.
As far as subsidies go, I believe that there's a panic over that that makes no sense. Cook announced that already, 75% of Apple's phone sales are unsubsidized. That's not much different than anyone else's phone sales.
Then, there are those who play the virtuous circle game ... they invest in AAPL, use proceeds to buy Apple ... which gooses [appreciates] AAPL ...
The thing that's being missed here is that anything can go off the rails, and it has nothing to do with the premise that was brought up. Of course, if there's a massive market correction, as Carl is saying there will be sometime out to the next five years, then every expectation for the market will drop. So what? That's not the point. We could be hit by a massive asteroid, and civilization might fall. So what?
We can't think like that. If we do, we might as well stop investing altogether and buy gold and gemstones, as a friend insisted I do back in 2007. Good thing I didn't listen.