Initial sales will be good, first quarter sales, after which sales will stagger unless we see the watch subsidized in countries like the US, UK and Japan. Without subsidies, this will be an epic failure. With subsidies, it could be a huge success.
When you say subsidies do you mean Apple allowing you to pay for the watch over time?
The question then becomes about the lifespan of the battery. How many years is a multi-thousand dollar device supposed to hold a charge?
How about the battery being replaceable. I know this is Apple we're talking about here but ?Watch is unlike anything they've done before. The same rules don't necessarily apply.
Will the S1 processor in the Apple Watch be upgradeable? Is that a serious question? You are talking about the same company that solders RAM into the new Mac Mini.
With that nonsense out the way, I think the watch will do well, but it won't do extremely well until battery life gets fixed and it's self sufficient. My fiance was excited about it until I told her an iPhone is required. When you can put on this watch and go work out and track your progress without having to drag along your iPhone, that's when they will be onto something really special.
Yes, it's a serious question and it's not nonsense. RAM being soldered into the mac mini is irrelevant because the Mac Mini is not made of gold. There's no real reason to hold onto the case of a Mac mini when you want to upgrade it.
People who buy gold watches that cost several thousand dollars do not replace them every two years. A gold watch is something people buy to keep for a decade, at least.
I will be surprised and disappointed if the S1 isn't upgradable. Certainly it won't be user upgradable -- you'll have to take it to an Apple Store and pay for the upgrade. I'll hazard a guess that an upgrade will cost about $250.
Again, you can't use the rational for a notebook PC that you would for a piece of jewelry. You you don't see how jewelry is different from a PC then I don't know what to tell you, except that you need to change your PoV.
That's false. It's been possible on a Mac for most, if not all of it's lifespan. It's possible right now.
We're not talking about a processor, we're talking an entire system that has been compartmentalized and branded. This is also something Apple has never done before. The S-series "computer on a chip" is not the same as taking about the A-series chip in their iDevices.
That does seem ridiculous, but so does spending $5k on a piece of jewelry that acts as a peripheral device for an iPhone, especially one that has a branded S-series SIP that's been branded.
I can definitely see the difference in jewelry and computers, that isn't the issue. What I am saying is Apple has never had a program in recent history where you can bring your Apple product and get a better processor installed. Does that mean you can't do it yourself with off the shelf parts, absolutely not but we are talking about official solutions from Apple.
With that said, none of us know what Apple's plans are but I highly doubt there will ever be a day where Apple will offer to upgrade the S1 in the Apple Watch versus convincing you to purchase the newest one. Apple has been moving as far away as you can from upgrading your products and more towards buying a product and having you replace it once the warranty runs out and fails. Time will tell but I just don't see it happening.
I can definitely see the difference in jewelry and computers, that isn't the issue. What I am saying is Apple has never had a program in recent history where you can bring your Apple product and get a better processor installed. Does that mean you can't do it yourself with off the shelf parts, absolutely not but we are talking about official solutions from Apple.
With that said, none of us know what Apple's plans are but I highly doubt there will ever be a day where Apple will offer to upgrade the S1 in the Apple Watch versus convincing you to purchase the newest one. Apple has been moving as far away as you can from upgrading your products and more towards buying a product and having you replace it once the warranty runs out and fails. Time will tell but I just don't see it happening.
1) It's weird that you're keep talking about a processor when one of the things we know about is the S-series SIP.
2) Again, the difference is how this this is different, and Apple has a very long history of re-inventing it's methodology to cater to a new market. Some might even say this is why they have been financially dominant in the PC, PMP, smartphone, and tablet markets all these years.
Yes, it's a serious question and it's not nonsense. RAM being soldered into the mac mini is irrelevant because the Mac Mini is not made of gold. There's no real reason to hold onto the case of a Mac mini when you want to upgrade it.
People who buy gold watches that cost several thousand dollars do not replace them every two years. A gold watch is something people buy to keep for a decade, at least.
I will be surprised and disappointed if the S1 isn't upgradable. Certainly it won't be user upgradable -- you'll have to take it to an Apple Store and pay for the upgrade. I'll hazard a guess that an upgrade will cost about $250.
I get your point, but we are entering a new era of watches. We are talking about technology in a watch, and technology isn't meant to last 10 years in most instances. I currently wear Seiko watches and keep them for 5+ years, often times even longer if it still works fine. I understand that by going with the Apple Watch I will likely have to buy a new watch each year and sell my old one, much like what I do with my iPhone. Buying a new watch each year is going to be a tough pill to swallow due to the price, but I'm willing to do that to keep up with technology and I would imagine others will as well.
I personally think being able to upgrade anything is a nice option to give to the customer, just with my knowledge of Apple and their past actions, I just don't see that fitting into their business model, it's just not like them.
Looks like we haven't learned much that iphone 6 success is larger screen. Apple watch have to be miracle device to do way more usability than smartphone iphone does with longer battery life otherwise just piece on wrist for show-off.
1) It's weird that you're keep talking about a processor when one of the things we know about is the S-series SIP.
2) Again, the difference is how this this is different, and Apple has a very long history of re-inventing it's methodology to cater to a new market. Some might even say this is why they have been financially dominant in the PC, PMP, smartphone, and tablet markets all these years.
I apologize, processor, SIP, whatever, I look at it as a "part" and I don't see Apple upgrading parts in a tiny watch versus selling you a new one. Hopefully that clears up whatever semantics we are talking about. My opinion is based purely on Apple's actions and their business model. The watch is new territory and with new territory comes changes. We will know soon enough what Apple has planned for us.
How about the battery being replaceable. I know this is Apple we're talking about here but ?Watch is unlike anything they've done before. The same rules don't necessarily apply.
I think that two free EOL battery swaps would be a decent justification for the price.
Originally Posted by wood1208
Looks like we haven't learned much that iphone 6 success is larger screen.
I apologize, processor, SIP, whatever, I look at it as a "part" and I don't see Apple upgrading parts in a tiny watch versus selling you a new one. Hopefully that clears up whatever semantics we are talking about. My opinion is based purely on Apple's actions and their business model. The watch is new territory and with new territory comes changes. We will know soon enough what Apple has planned for us.
OK, so if we're talking about components within a device, then, yes, Macs have had and still have the ability to replace batteries and/or RAM, the former Apple will do in the store. Even now Apple has moved to replaced broken iPhone screens in their Apple Stores instead of simply handing you a refurbished unit.
So there is a precedent here of internals being altered after purchase for a fee, but you still don't seem to be acknowledging that jewelry is inherently different than traditional CE. That is not to say that Apple will be allowing for the SIP to be upgraded, but to simply discount an entirely new category for Apple and entire unique category for a CE company that has has a successful track record of reinventing their MO for a new product category is foolhardy.
I think knows how to make money, I think they did their homework, and I think ?Watch will fail if the life of the product equates to the life of an any old iDevice.
PS: Why have the enclosed SIP at all if the ?Watch is a closed environment that will never be opened up?
OK, so if we're talking about components within a device, then, yes, Macs have had and still have the ability to replace batteries and/or RAM, the former Apple will do in the store. Even now Apple has moved to replaced broken iPhone screens in their Apple Stores instead of simply handing you a refurbished unit.
So there is a precedent here of internals being altered after purchase for a fee, but you still don't seem to be acknowledging that jewelry is inherently different than traditional CE. That is not to say that Apple will be allowing for the SIP to be upgraded, but to simply discount an entirely new category for Apple and entire unique category for a CE company that has has a successful track record of reinventing their MO for a new product category is foolhardy.
I think knows how to make money, I think they did their homework, and I think ?Watch will fail if the life of the product equates to the life of an any old iDevice.
PS: Why have the enclosed SIP at all if the ?Watch is a closed environment that will never be opened up?
I'm with you, and you definitely raise some interesting points and I'm probably to quick to judge and make my opinion known.I will be fully prepared to eat crow once we find out the details.
I'm with you, and you definitely raise some interesting points and I'm probably to quick to judge and make my opinion known.I will be fully prepared to eat crow once we find out the details.
To be clear, no one disagrees with you about such an occurrence as being weird for Apple, but the whole thing is already through the looking glass, so to speak.
Again, you can't use the rational for a notebook PC that you would for a piece of jewelry.
This is a key point.
Jewelry is a fashion statement, but it can also acquire sentimental or other importance. Grandpa's wristwatch, grandma's diamond ring, etc. The Apple Watch will do much more than a typical wristwatch, and yet there is very little chance that it will last long enough to create its own personal history.
Personally, I prefer old wristwatches, either family heirlooms or something I've worn for decades because there's something meaningful in the history of the object. Recently I got a new diver's watch, my first new watch in over thirty years. Yes, it's shiny, yet it doesn't have that lived-in look as my old chronograph which still looks great but clearly has been places. No amount of money can buy that.
I've noticed this with leather goods as well. I have leather cases for my iPad mini and my MacBook Air, but they will never acquire the worn-in look as something that has been around for decades, like an old briefcase or belt. Soon enough, Apple will change the device dimensions, and I'll be forced to buy a new leather case.
I get your point, but we are entering a new era of watches. We are talking about technology in a watch, and technology isn't meant to last 10 years in most instances. I currently wear Seiko watches and keep them for 5+ years, often times even longer if it still works fine. I understand that by going with the Apple Watch I will likely have to buy a new watch each year and sell my old one, much like what I do with my iPhone. Buying a new watch each year is going to be a tough pill to swallow due to the price, but I'm willing to do that to keep up with technology and I would imagine others will as well.
I personally think being able to upgrade anything is a nice option to give to the customer, just with my knowledge of Apple and their past actions, I just don't see that fitting into their business model, it's just not like them.
A two or three year old iPhone probably won't play the lastest games.
But will a two or three year old Apple Watch display notifications and track your heart rate?
I'm wondering how much work the SoC in the Apple Watch actually does. The Apple Watch is supposedly an extension of your iPhone... so would it need to be replaced as often as the Phone?
To be clear, no one disagrees with you about such an occurrence as being weird for Apple, but the whole thing is already through the looking glass, so to speak.
I understand and your comments made me sit back and think for a minute. While it may not be hard to convince someone to buy a new Apple Watch every year, it would be hard to convince someone to buy a gold plated watch every year. Apple designed the S1 definitely adds fuel to the theory and makes a lot of sense.
First: you will be able to upgrade your AppleWatch capability -- just upgrade your iPhone!
Second: the AppleWatch for the multitudes costs $350 ... it should be viable for 3-4 years ...
So, the monthly cost of the AppleWatch will be between $7-$10 per month ...
My argument for making the battery and SIP upgradable is, how can I maximize sales and profits of a "smartwatch" that others won't be able to match? I could do what Sony, Samsung, et al. are doing by selling a device with a limited life span, but that limits both unit sales and expensive, jewelry-like purchases because CE is an inherent part of the experience.
This will mean Apple can't tackle the collectible part of the market because those devices, need to be usable after many years. You maximize the profits by creating a new external design every year but allow the functionality to be the same or similar, like with traditional watches. This all depends on your ability to engineer the CE aspect in such a way that the jewelry aspect will have a long shelf life. This is clearly a major undertaking, but it's the undertaking that I don't think I would ignore before announcing my "smartwatch" if I were running Apple. Could that be what Ive met by this being the most difficult product he's had to develop since he needs the SIP (and other components) to be designed around many years of advancements?
If you can accomplish this you then get more people that will purchase your device, more people that will purchase a more expensive version of your device, and more people that will purchase multiple versions of your device, just as they do now with traditional watches. If anyone can pull that of it's Apple, but I'm not sure anyone can.
Comments
The question then becomes about the lifespan of the battery. How many years is a multi-thousand dollar device supposed to hold a charge?
When you say subsidies do you mean Apple allowing you to pay for the watch over time?
How about the battery being replaceable. I know this is Apple we're talking about here but ?Watch is unlike anything they've done before. The same rules don't necessarily apply.
Will the S1 processor in the Apple Watch be upgradeable? Is that a serious question? You are talking about the same company that solders RAM into the new Mac Mini.
With that nonsense out the way, I think the watch will do well, but it won't do extremely well until battery life gets fixed and it's self sufficient. My fiance was excited about it until I told her an iPhone is required. When you can put on this watch and go work out and track your progress without having to drag along your iPhone, that's when they will be onto something really special.
Yes, it's a serious question and it's not nonsense. RAM being soldered into the mac mini is irrelevant because the Mac Mini is not made of gold. There's no real reason to hold onto the case of a Mac mini when you want to upgrade it.
People who buy gold watches that cost several thousand dollars do not replace them every two years. A gold watch is something people buy to keep for a decade, at least.
I will be surprised and disappointed if the S1 isn't upgradable. Certainly it won't be user upgradable -- you'll have to take it to an Apple Store and pay for the upgrade. I'll hazard a guess that an upgrade will cost about $250.
Again, you can't use the rational for a notebook PC that you would for a piece of jewelry. You you don't see how jewelry is different from a PC then I don't know what to tell you, except that you need to change your PoV.
That's false. It's been possible on a Mac for most, if not all of it's lifespan. It's possible right now.
We're not talking about a processor, we're talking an entire system that has been compartmentalized and branded. This is also something Apple has never done before. The S-series "computer on a chip" is not the same as taking about the A-series chip in their iDevices.
That does seem ridiculous, but so does spending $5k on a piece of jewelry that acts as a peripheral device for an iPhone, especially one that has a branded S-series SIP that's been branded.
I can definitely see the difference in jewelry and computers, that isn't the issue. What I am saying is Apple has never had a program in recent history where you can bring your Apple product and get a better processor installed. Does that mean you can't do it yourself with off the shelf parts, absolutely not but we are talking about official solutions from Apple.
With that said, none of us know what Apple's plans are but I highly doubt there will ever be a day where Apple will offer to upgrade the S1 in the Apple Watch versus convincing you to purchase the newest one. Apple has been moving as far away as you can from upgrading your products and more towards buying a product and having you replace it once the warranty runs out and fails. Time will tell but I just don't see it happening.
IMO, the key to a large volume of AppleWatch sales --[B][I][COLOR=blue] is the millennials using ApplePay to buy stuff ...[/COLOR][/I][/B]
And it is [I] in the interest of quite a few to [/I] do whatever it takes to make that happen!
1) It's weird that you're keep talking about a processor when one of the things we know about is the S-series SIP.
2) Again, the difference is how this this is different, and Apple has a very long history of re-inventing it's methodology to cater to a new market. Some might even say this is why they have been financially dominant in the PC, PMP, smartphone, and tablet markets all these years.
Yes, it's a serious question and it's not nonsense. RAM being soldered into the mac mini is irrelevant because the Mac Mini is not made of gold. There's no real reason to hold onto the case of a Mac mini when you want to upgrade it.
People who buy gold watches that cost several thousand dollars do not replace them every two years. A gold watch is something people buy to keep for a decade, at least.
I will be surprised and disappointed if the S1 isn't upgradable. Certainly it won't be user upgradable -- you'll have to take it to an Apple Store and pay for the upgrade. I'll hazard a guess that an upgrade will cost about $250.
I get your point, but we are entering a new era of watches. We are talking about technology in a watch, and technology isn't meant to last 10 years in most instances. I currently wear Seiko watches and keep them for 5+ years, often times even longer if it still works fine. I understand that by going with the Apple Watch I will likely have to buy a new watch each year and sell my old one, much like what I do with my iPhone. Buying a new watch each year is going to be a tough pill to swallow due to the price, but I'm willing to do that to keep up with technology and I would imagine others will as well.
I personally think being able to upgrade anything is a nice option to give to the customer, just with my knowledge of Apple and their past actions, I just don't see that fitting into their business model, it's just not like them.
1) It's weird that you're keep talking about a processor when one of the things we know about is the S-series SIP.
2) Again, the difference is how this this is different, and Apple has a very long history of re-inventing it's methodology to cater to a new market. Some might even say this is why they have been financially dominant in the PC, PMP, smartphone, and tablet markets all these years.
I apologize, processor, SIP, whatever, I look at it as a "part" and I don't see Apple upgrading parts in a tiny watch versus selling you a new one. Hopefully that clears up whatever semantics we are talking about. My opinion is based purely on Apple's actions and their business model. The watch is new territory and with new territory comes changes. We will know soon enough what Apple has planned for us.
I think that two free EOL battery swaps would be a decent justification for the price.
Because that isn’t the reason for its success.
OK, so if we're talking about components within a device, then, yes, Macs have had and still have the ability to replace batteries and/or RAM, the former Apple will do in the store. Even now Apple has moved to replaced broken iPhone screens in their Apple Stores instead of simply handing you a refurbished unit.
So there is a precedent here of internals being altered after purchase for a fee, but you still don't seem to be acknowledging that jewelry is inherently different than traditional CE. That is not to say that Apple will be allowing for the SIP to be upgraded, but to simply discount an entirely new category for Apple and entire unique category for a CE company that has has a successful track record of reinventing their MO for a new product category is foolhardy.
I think knows how to make money, I think they did their homework, and I think ?Watch will fail if the life of the product equates to the life of an any old iDevice.
PS: Why have the enclosed SIP at all if the ?Watch is a closed environment that will never be opened up?
OK, so if we're talking about components within a device, then, yes, Macs have had and still have the ability to replace batteries and/or RAM, the former Apple will do in the store. Even now Apple has moved to replaced broken iPhone screens in their Apple Stores instead of simply handing you a refurbished unit.
So there is a precedent here of internals being altered after purchase for a fee, but you still don't seem to be acknowledging that jewelry is inherently different than traditional CE. That is not to say that Apple will be allowing for the SIP to be upgraded, but to simply discount an entirely new category for Apple and entire unique category for a CE company that has has a successful track record of reinventing their MO for a new product category is foolhardy.
I think knows how to make money, I think they did their homework, and I think ?Watch will fail if the life of the product equates to the life of an any old iDevice.
PS: Why have the enclosed SIP at all if the ?Watch is a closed environment that will never be opened up?
I'm with you, and you definitely raise some interesting points and I'm probably to quick to judge and make my opinion known.I will be fully prepared to eat crow once we find out the details.
It's so hard to predict the success of a new product category like this. But I think this prediction makes a lot of sense, with one caveat.
Might as well argue the sun came up in the morning every day for the last week, but that doesn't means it will come up tomorrow!
To be clear, no one disagrees with you about such an occurrence as being weird for Apple, but the whole thing is already through the looking glass, so to speak.
[B][U]First:[/U][/B] you will be able to upgrade your AppleWatch capability -- just upgrade your iPhone!
[B][U]Second:[/U][/B] the AppleWatch for the multitudes costs $350 ... it should be viable for 3-4 years ...
So, the monthly cost of the AppleWatch will be between $7-$10 per month ...
I suspect that most will be able to justify ~ $10/month with the services provided by the AppleWatch.
Again, you can't use the rational for a notebook PC that you would for a piece of jewelry.
This is a key point.
Jewelry is a fashion statement, but it can also acquire sentimental or other importance. Grandpa's wristwatch, grandma's diamond ring, etc. The Apple Watch will do much more than a typical wristwatch, and yet there is very little chance that it will last long enough to create its own personal history.
Personally, I prefer old wristwatches, either family heirlooms or something I've worn for decades because there's something meaningful in the history of the object. Recently I got a new diver's watch, my first new watch in over thirty years. Yes, it's shiny, yet it doesn't have that lived-in look as my old chronograph which still looks great but clearly has been places. No amount of money can buy that.
I've noticed this with leather goods as well. I have leather cases for my iPad mini and my MacBook Air, but they will never acquire the worn-in look as something that has been around for decades, like an old briefcase or belt. Soon enough, Apple will change the device dimensions, and I'll be forced to buy a new leather case.
A two or three year old iPhone probably won't play the lastest games.
But will a two or three year old Apple Watch display notifications and track your heart rate?
I'm wondering how much work the SoC in the Apple Watch actually does. The Apple Watch is supposedly an extension of your iPhone... so would it need to be replaced as often as the Phone?
To be clear, no one disagrees with you about such an occurrence as being weird for Apple, but the whole thing is already through the looking glass, so to speak.
I understand and your comments made me sit back and think for a minute. While it may not be hard to convince someone to buy a new Apple Watch every year, it would be hard to convince someone to buy a gold plated watch every year. Apple designed the S1 definitely adds fuel to the theory and makes a lot of sense.
My argument for making the battery and SIP upgradable is, how can I maximize sales and profits of a "smartwatch" that others won't be able to match? I could do what Sony, Samsung, et al. are doing by selling a device with a limited life span, but that limits both unit sales and expensive, jewelry-like purchases because CE is an inherent part of the experience.
This will mean Apple can't tackle the collectible part of the market because those devices, need to be usable after many years. You maximize the profits by creating a new external design every year but allow the functionality to be the same or similar, like with traditional watches. This all depends on your ability to engineer the CE aspect in such a way that the jewelry aspect will have a long shelf life. This is clearly a major undertaking, but it's the undertaking that I don't think I would ignore before announcing my "smartwatch" if I were running Apple. Could that be what Ive met by this being the most difficult product he's had to develop since he needs the SIP (and other components) to be designed around many years of advancements?
If you can accomplish this you then get more people that will purchase your device, more people that will purchase a more expensive version of your device, and more people that will purchase multiple versions of your device, just as they do now with traditional watches. If anyone can pull that of it's Apple, but I'm not sure anyone can.