leavingthebigg wrote: »
Apple is promoting security and ease of use.
Out of the gate security beats insecurity. You have agreed to this fact.
One wave to pay sounds easier and faster than Apple Pay since fingerprint authorization is not needed. Some people may want that. Some people might not want that due to the possibility of unauthorized payments. I think you can agree with this fact as well.
Can Apple convince all European banks to support Apple Pay? Probably not. All that is needed to start the Apple Pay ball rolling is three-to-five banks. From there retailers are needed. At the point, Apple will just move forward with Apple Pay. Apple will not wait indefinitely nor will it stop unwilling-to-partner banks from going their own way.
With Apple Watch, a lot of iPhone 5, 5C and 5S users will join a lot of iPhone 6 and 6 Plus users may start to use Apple Pay in Europe securely and easily. I think you can agree with this assumption.
Will Apple easily beat wave to pay? No. Apple will compete by presenting a secure and easy alternative and trying to convince its iPhone and Watch customers to use that alternative.
Once Apple Pay arrives to Europe, most commentators here will be back commenting.
adyb wrote: »
& a lot of us have more than one of each!
The big issue will be getting enough retailers to accept Apple pay so that I feel comfortable leaving some of my cards at home & enjoying a thinner wallet.
I'm in UK and a long time user of chip and pin. With nearly all retailers able to accept NFC Apple Pay will lift off very fast here. I can't wait.
Chip and pin but chip and pin in the UK (and Europe) chased a lot of fraud to the US where swipe existed for much longer. Retailers here take the hit if they accept a fraudulent card not the banks and that was a big driver of chip and pin roll out. Given that still applies retailers will want Apple Pay so as to limit further the chance of a fraudulent transaction.
Also London Transport (all underground trains buses) accept NFC and that is millions of transactions a day.
Woo hoo bring it on!!
knowitall wrote: »
And a lot have no credit card at all.
It's a huge difference compared to the U.S. and that can make AP much less of a convenience.
I agree, that Apple has to convince retailers (and banks) to use the system but to do that they have to compete with the money networks (that are as far as I know separate institutions) on price.
That will be a big fight.
I predict in 5-6 years, ATMs will start adding NFC readers and promote more ApplePay for secure authentication to mitigate unauthorized cash withdrawals. By then, other Google/Android flagship phones will be "forced" to develop (or license?) their own fingerprint ID technology as well, to keep up with ApplePay, so more and more shoppers will start to leave their bank cards at home or locked in their glove compartment. Also, with EMV coming to the US this fall, most merchants will be "forced" to add NFC POS readers, so ApplePay (and GooglePay) adoption will start accelerating.
Remember pin and chip cards are expensive for banks to roll out in the tens of millions.
Smart banks will continue to promote ApplePay because relatively more engaged/affluent iPhone 6, AppleWatch users will demand it. For example, note that on Black Friday and Christmas Day in the US, iPhones produced 4X the level of PURCHASES compared to Google/Android. Therefore, smart banks will want to cherry pick iPhone and Flagship Android customers.
As a further strong-indication of iPhone vs Google/Android use, if twitter is a proxy for engagement, this REAL-TIME TWEET map proves the extreme "relevance" of the iOS system as it shows WHERE worldwide tweeting comes from: http://tweetworldtom.herokuapp.com
So US, European, Japanese, and Chinese banks and merchants will want to "cream-skim" their customer base and rush to attract and keep premium depositors (i.e. iOS users) happy and engaged.
Just the fraud/risk-of-loss mitigation alone is worth it to the banks to promote this more secure ApplePay ID solution, not to mention the quality-customer engagement.
I've been to two Home Depot stores in the Pacific Northwest and they use the iSC line of multilane retail terminals. They don't have the NFC logo on them but have NFC built in. Both times I've used my iPhone it has worked flawlessly but it still asks for my signature. I asked the cashier about this and they said the NFC portion hasn't been configured. It has to a certain extent because I've paid for things in their stores. Retailers say they don't want to pay for the expensive terminals but many already have them, they just don't have qualified IT staff to actually figure out how to configure them properly. I believe this is the biggest issue for wide scale implementation and it's show with the hacking of Target and Home Depot, among others. These companies don't want to commit enough money to protect their resources especially in the cut-throat retail business. Go ahead and blame credit card companies but the real problem is retail corporations who have to deal with investors who demand large profits. When they do their risk analysis they see the cost of being hacked as being a "low risk" compared to the cost of providing adequate security. I'm sure places like Target and Home Depot have a large amount of theft but they factor that into their bottom line. Paying for increased credit card or payment security doesn't help the bottom line since the credit card company feels the pain and the store doesn't. This is why the credit card companies are extremely happy with ApplePay since it should greatly reduce their losses. Maybe they just need to demand ApplePay-compatible cash register terminals or threaten to withdraw support for their credit and debit cards at non-compliant stores. People spend more when using credit cards instead of cash and the joke system the CurrencyC group is pushing won't last long especially in stores where people spend a lot of money.
I, too, have been able to use ApplePay numerous times at Home Depot in the state of Washington, and no PIN nor signature was required.
I'm confident that later this fall, NFC POS readers will be coming to most all major US retail chains, and thus ApplePay adoption by many more merchants will accelerate.
Another venue in which ApplePay really shines is in ONLINE purchasing. Here it is obviously more secure and convenient as one is not required to enter all those CC numbers and billing address, etc.
If ApplePay can continue to garner all this free publicity PLUS avoid being hacked after millions and millions of transactions, then this should greatly enhance Apple's moat and eco-system.
Apple's purchase of, and implementation of, AuthenTec's proprietary fingerprint ID technology was a wicked-smart move.
knowitall wrote: »
I see, you understand the points I made.
AP has a few other problems in Europe as well, almost all stores already have bank card and creditcard payment systems also iPhones are vastly outnumbered by other devices in several countries its even below 10%.
leavingthebigg wrote: »
One thing that is nice benefit about Apple Pay is it cannot easily be copied by competitors.
Apple's web site says the following, which isn't all that technical:
With Apple Pay, instead of using your actual credit and debit card numbers when you add your card, a unique Device Account Number is assigned, encrypted, and securely stored in the Secure Element, a dedicated chip in iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch. These numbers are never stored on Apple servers. And when you make a purchase, the Device Account Number, along with a transaction-specific dynamic security code, is used to process your payment. So your actual credit or debit card numbers are never shared by Apple with merchants or transmitted with payment.
I do believe Apple designed the backend with assistance/acceptance by credit card companies, banks, and NFC-enabled cashier terminal systems. The front-end, including TouchID, Secure Element, and possibly the unique Device Account Number was developed by Apple and might have been patented. I know it's just a process but when you combine all elements of that process it become a unique one, which should stand the testing done by lawyers for Samsung and others. It's obvious credit card companies are happy with Apple's design and I haven't seen any advertisements for any other system from credit card companies and banks. This doesn't mean they actually understand the security involved. They might just be jumping on the bandwagon. Like I said, I don't see any jumping on the MCX bandwagon and Google's wallet ads quit a long time ago.
Google, Samsung, and others can try and create their own version of Apple Pay but I have my doubts about how accepted it will be by the banks. Apple came up with a tightly integrated, secure product, something Google can't do because their system is "open" (/s) while Samsung's product would have to be trusted by US banks, something I'm not sure will happen when you look at the type of phones they sell in bulk (don't think they will ever get anything like Secure Element). Last I read Apple owns over half the (real) smartphone market in the US and maybe in many other countries that use credit cards a lot. Android-based phones proliferate the low-end market and countries with lower economies. Products like Apple Pay will only work when there's enough money being spent to justify the infrastructure. It's simple economics, which is why Apple released Apple Pay in the US first and will be targeting countries with larger amounts of disposable income next.
It might be hard for Google/Android to implement and fingerprint ID system as good as Apple's because of Apple's AuthenTec patent portfolio in this technology. Apple also has 64-bit technology which enables the secure enclave part of the phone. This means the iphone doesn't have to wake up or open any apps to use ApplePay as well. Apple's fingerprint reader is also sapphire crystal, for what it's worth. With Google/Android being so fragmented, I think they would have a lot of challenges to get this fingerprint ID part polished and uniform.
I agree, I think it will be interesting to see how Google updates Wallet. If that happens, there will be so many comparisons and further good publicity.
Bottom Line for all this back and forth:
- pulling your phone out of your pocket to pay is undeniably physically simpler than any credit card system can ever be. because that card is always inside something - wallet, purse, etc. - and getting it out and using it takes two hands and two steps, and the same again to put it back. (plus i button my wallet pocket, so three steps each way for me).
- fingerprint identity confirmation - the Apple implementation - is simply the most secure method now available. it can't be practically hacked (forget the movie-thriller nonsense about someone using a mold of your fingerprint - that could never "go to scale").
- the banks are pushing Apple Pay hard totally out of their own self-interest because: (a) its security will reduce their fraud losses - a huge $ amount to then add to their profits, and (b) they want to kill Google's "man in the middle" Google Wallet system that siphons off their lucrative credit card transaction fee revenues, or (c) any other merchant digital payment system that does that too, like Walmart's MCX.
will Europe embrace Apple Pay? i have no idea. at least the high-end retailers i would think, due to its top notch security. same for Asia. beyond that, we'll see. every global market is different.
solipsismy wrote: »
In fact, they have to go out of their way to have NFC and then not support ?Pay.
cali wrote: »
And people still don't understand the Beats deal.
Beats made hundreds of millions of dollars in its first year with a $0 advertising budget.
Apple has a way of gaining billions pf dollars of advertising for free while Sammy and others have to break the bank.
Apple is the cheapskate billionaire.
geekmee wrote: »
Also, something that NO ONE has mentioned: It's my understanding that the standard ratio for valuing the future value of a buyout is ten times its current value.
gtbuzz wrote: »
Maybe ApplePay will work better than my Visa with a Chip. Walmart's Chip processing leaves a lot to be desired. Old Fashioned Swipe & Sign is much faster than Chip Pay and Wait, and Wait, and Wait Some More . . . Tonight I tried to buy an inexpensive Timex at Walmart in GA and after 2 attempts to Pay & Wait with the Visa Merrill Signature Chip Card, I gave up, canceled, swiped, signed and left. They have had Chips in their cards for several years. Walmart cannot seem to get the Chip Pay Technology down as they should. Anyone having any luck with Apple Pay at Walmart ?
anantksundaram wrote: »
NO ONE has mentioned it because there is NO such thing as a 'standard ratio for valuing the future value of a buyout.'
The two broad methods are 'relative valuation' and 'DCF (discounted cash flow) valuation.' (There is a third one -- asset valuation -- but let's put that aside, since it's not applicable to all situations).
In any reasonable-sized acquisition ('buyout') -- by which one means something in excess of a few tens of millions of dollars -- publicly-traded companies such as Apple do both. Otherwise, corporate boards would not typically approve them.
RV involves looking at trading comparables and transaction comparables. With respect to both, buyers look at various multiples (e.g., P/E, P/Sales, EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT) and with respect to the latter, buyers looks at premiums paid in similar transactions. All of these relative value metrics vary dramatically from industry to industry, and even within industry, from transaction to transaction, depending on factors such as bid competition, synergies expected, etc.
The real thing, however, is DCF. Without getting into details, suffice it to say that it requires forecasting future cash flows (i.e., modeling revenues, costs, investment spending), assessing the cash flow risks (i.e., deriving the cost of capital) for the target company, and the assessing expected long-run growth rate in cash flows (which, in turn, is a function of how much the company reinvests in the business and the return it is expected to generate in the long-run). Each of these three fundamentals also varies dramatically from industry to industry, and even within industry, from transaction to transaction.
There is a fair amount of detail there that I do not wish to get into here. Happy to give you some references if you'd like to learn more. But it'll involve some work.
The bottom line is, there is no cookie-cutter 'standard ratio.'