I just wish people would stop focusing on this thing as a "time-piece". That's the stupidest short-sight that I am continually reading everywhere.
Why?
It might be a computing device but it is a Watch first.
A watch first??? To some, maybe ... But I'll go out on a limb and predict that 80% of Apple Watch purchases will not be as an alternative to a watch timepiece!
When people get a new phone every year they don't just throw the old ones in a drawer, they sell them. the second hand apple market is huge and one of the main drivers that i use Apple products. I love everything else about them as well but the resale value makes upgrading feasible. I think that the same thing will happen with watches. these are not going to be the old man watches that your dad and grandpa had. Nor is that the customer base that Apple is selling to. the people that are buying these are the 20-40 year old tech savvy group that will gladly sell off the gen 1 Apple Watch when the gen 2 comes out. Now the high end Apple watch may be a bit different depending on how expensive they end up being. Those i don't see turning over as much. The other thing to look at is that they are going to wear out faster than a regular watch. In 20 yrs you wont be able to use a gen 1 Apple watch because it will either just stop or software/hardware will advance past what it is capable of.
Honestly you cant even compare the current watch market trends and tendencies to the Apple watch as being a "watch" is way down its list of intended uses. If you but the Apple watch just to tell time then I have some bridges for sale.
Sure, and smartphones are supposed to be phones first. Yet making calls is way down the list of what I do on my iPhone. Texting, e-mail, Internet browsing and company specific Apps take up most of my time. I even spend more time on social media or playing games than I do talking on the phone.
Put 1,000 people in a straight line... go down the line, hold up your iPhone and ask each person to name that object.
I can almost guarantee you that at least 980 of them will say it's a mobile phone/iPhone/phone.
... the same goes for the Apple Watch. Hell, even Apple calls it a Watch.
Maybe Apple should have called it the Apple Wristband Computing Device.
A watch first??? To some, maybe ... But I'll go out on a limb and predict that 80% of Apple Watch purchases will not be as an alternative to a watch timepiece!
I am not trying to predict or dictate how the ? Watch will be used...
Just that the ? Watch, if anything, is a solid timepiece with ideals rooted within its many aspects. The iPhone, while now a multiple usage and (for some) primary computing device will always be a phone.
No matter how people accustom to their ? Watch, it will always be a timepiece... A watch.
When people get a new phone every year they don't just throw the old ones in a drawer, they sell them. the second hand apple market is huge and one of the main drivers that i use Apple products. I love everything else about them as well but the resale value makes upgrading feasible. I think that the same thing will happen with watches. these are not going to be the old man watches that your dad and grandpa had. Nor is that the customer base that Apple is selling to. the people that are buying these are the 20-40 year old tech savvy group that will gladly sell off the gen 1 Apple Watch when the gen 2 comes out. Now the high end Apple watch may be a bit different depending on how expensive they end up being. Those i don't see turning over as much. The other thing to look at is that they are going to wear out faster than a regular watch. In 20 yrs you wont be able to use a gen 1 Apple watch because it will either just stop or software/hardware will advance past what it is capable of.
Honestly you cant even compare the current watch market trends and tendencies to the Apple watch as being a "watch" is way down its list of intended uses. If you but the Apple watch just to tell time then I have some bridges for sale.
20 years? You must be kidding. How many original iPhones are still being used 7 yrs later? 5-6 yrs tops on a Apple Watch before it becomes completely obsolete.
Man I'm getting sick of all this ?Watch analysis. The worst of which coming from Business Insider of course where Jay Yarrow has proclaimed that ?Watch will either be a home run or a flop, as apparently there can be no in between. :rolleyes: Then of course CES is this week and we know every one and their mother will be showing off some kind of "smart" watch/fitness band/activity tracker just to get it out there before ?Watch. Of course all these devices will be cheaper and thus the tech media and Wall Street clowns will call them "iWatch killers" (the media refuses to give up on that name).
People, in theory at least, don't need to get a new iPhone as often as they do. The thing about Apple's user base, or a large percentage of it, is they WE just lust after a new iPhone ... or iPad or whatever Apple make. That's where trying to use logic on all of this falls down. So I suspect using the 'what people need' argument isn't a good metric for potential sales of the ?Watch. I also predict that even those that buy one will get a new one every couple of years as new features come out, even though they sure as heck won't need one. I have used the 'we can pass it on' excuse so many times when buying the latest iPhone yet I still have every model ever made in a cupboard along with iPads and iPods, Macs and ACDs.
As to the step up from $300 to $500 being an impediment, sales of mid and high end iDevices surely show that to not be a barrier.
I have no idea how well it will sell, I can only hope it does very well as an AAPL share holder.
Spot on. People don't really need new phones every year or two years. And I suspect ?Watch will have shelf life longer than that. I'm guessing Apple thinks it can make a decent amount of money on bands so we'll see new bands offered over time so people can freshen up their watch without having to buy a new one.
Spot on. People don't really need new phones every year or two years. And I suspect ?Watch will have shelf life longer than that. I'm guessing Apple thinks it can make a decent amount of money on bands so we'll see new bands offered over time so people can freshen up their watch without having to buy a new one.
That long? I think it will have a pretty short shelf life, in opposition.
I wouldn't be surprised to see trends similar to how the iPods sold, since it is around that price point but (seemingly) will become obsolete much faster.
I got to say, Who are these people??? We've had them say Apple is dying and some of them are to this day still saying that. Who are all these people Apple is going to be selling Smart Watches to? Are you going to buy one? Most everyone I know has a iPhone and yet not a single one of them has come out and said they plan to buy one!!!
Watches have been a dying market for a number of years. It's not like the phones or tablets. Nothing like when the iPhone launched or the iPad even. Why would I spend $500 on average for a Apple Watch? On a nice normal watch, Ok, I can see that. I still use rarely my nice fancy watch I got for a High School graduation present. So that has been over 20 years now and it still works. Now look at a Smart Watch. You fork out $500 on average for a watch with a limited lifespan. Forget that the battery can't be replaced, at least not very easily, but besides that, this kind of tech will be outdated with something new and improved in a couple years. So now besides replacing your iPhone every 2 years, you'll be replacing your Apple Watch every what, 2-4 years at $500 a pop on top of that phone and for what? Because you're to lazy to grab your big old phone that's on you already?
I mean come on. Has any Smart Watch even sold 1 million up to this point? If you combine them all together will you get 1 million? Pebble has sold a bunch, but they're cheap, have a long battery life, but even then I think it's only in the hundreds of thousands, not a million+. Maybe I'm wrong?!?!?!
I look at the market at who still wears watches. Does anyone else? First there's the OLD PEOPLE!!! Most don't even have a Smart phone, just a dumb phone. Or a cheap Smart phone. This is like my Grandma, wears a watch, just replaced her dumb phone with a cheap ZTE Android phone and just barely knows how to make calls on the thing. Would never get a Smart Watch. Then you have those that wear a suit on the job. Lawyers, businessmen, Judges, etc. These are people that would buy a Rolex over a Smart Watch!!! You may have your few geeks in the group. You know the ones in the past that got the Calculator Watch!!! They might get a Smart Watch. Then there's the group that put on a suit for a Wedding, Funeral, or Church!!! Maybe wear a nice watch then. It would be a dress watch, not a Smart Watch, and not wearing a watch enough to spend $500 on in the first place.
I just don't see Apple selling their planned 5 million a quarter. I don't see 1 million a quarter. 1 million in a year maybe?!?! Just because Apple is making it doesn't magically change anything. I have zero plans to get a Apple Watch. No one I know plans to get a Apple watch. I do have plans to buy a bigger iPad if/when they come out to replace my iPad 3. But No Apple Watch!!! Come on, who here really plans to buy one? Are you going to buy the cheapest $350 version or spend even more? Anyone???
I am not trying to predict or dictate how the ? Watch will be used...
Just that the ? Watch, if anything, is a solid timepiece with ideals rooted within its many aspects. The iPhone, while now a multiple usage and (for some) primary computing device will always be a phone.
No matter how people accustom to their ? Watch, it will always be a timepiece... A watch.
It's very well disguised as a watch. It's actually an input/output device for your identity, assisted by the computer in your pocket.
Since you wear it on your wrist, might as well tell the time too.
Spot on. People don't really need new phones every year or two years. And I suspect ?Watch will have shelf life longer than that. I'm guessing Apple thinks it can make a decent amount of money on bands so we'll see new bands offered over time so people can freshen up their watch without having to buy a new one.
You guys need to get out of the nerdy-utilitarian mindset on the ?Watch. This doesn't operate on the iPhone model. A lot of people who wear watches own several of them. It's a fashion item; people wear the watch to match the mood or outfit. And like other fashion items such as shoes, jewelry, accessories, posh dresses, etc., a lot of people own more than one.
I mean come on. Has any Smart Watch even sold 1 million up to this point? If you combine them all together will you get 1 million?
The same sentiment has been expressed about tablet computers before the iPad came out. Bottomline, we just don't know how the AppleWatch will do. Just like nobody really knew how the iPad would be received by the market. Not even Apple.
It has NFC, BLE and WiFi radios ... recognize iBeacons ... make payments ... connect to ? with WiFi ... indoor / outdoor navigation ...
Will it make / receive phone calls through the iPhone across the room -- just like the Mac or iPad ...
"I've fallen and I can't get up" ... But I'm wearing my Apple Watch ...
Just need to get / monitor the basics: pulse, blood pressure, respiration, body temperature ...
Radios and batteries, likely, are its biggest challenges ...
Qualcomm has a market cap of ~ $123 Billion ...
On models with solid bands, these could contain much larger batteries ...
Radio waves can be used to charge batteries ...
Does it really need to be an all-in-one replacement for an iPhone ... will most people carry an iPhone anyway -- just for safety, security, additional capabilities ...
Quality never goes out of style ...
How many new models of mid - top-end watches are released per year by their manufacturers ,,,
How does this affect the worth / value of the existing "classic" models ...
How frequently are premium watches tuned up / repaired -- at what cost ...
That long? I think it will have a pretty short shelf life, in opposition.
I wouldn't be surprised to see trends similar to how the iPods sold, since it is around that price point but (seemingly) will become obsolete much faster.
I'm excited to see:)
Short shelf life based on what? I'll bet one of the biggest reasons people upgrade their phones so frequently is camera improvements. ?Watch doesn't have a camera. I doubt ?Watch will be running really complex native apps that will require frequent SoC upgrades. I just don't see what will make gen 1 obsolete that quickly. And by obsolete I mean unusable.
I am really frustrated by all this talk about a watch. I don't know about how it works or what it is or how much it will cost. I don't know anyone who has got one or whether they would like it even if they did. I just don't know how many it will sell or even if they will sell. I am baffled every time it is mentioned. Am am happy to record my ignorance of something that has not been released into the public domain, and at no time feel I am wasting my time.
Another thing. I have no idea what I shall be having for my tea on any day next week. The matter has not yet been decided. I can only assume the decision shall be made by me or others nearer the time.
18 million is stunningly optimistic. The iPhone, which surely has a larger audience, sold about 10 million the first year; the iPad sold only a couple million.
The second generation will probably sell 20 million in its first year, but I don't think the first generation is likely to see that kind of uptake that quickly.
This strongly assumes that current Apple device owners are going to want a $500 smartwatch. Or any smartwatch to be honest.
Also how often are watches replaced? Especially $500 watches? The thing about phones is that people get new phones every couple of years. But people expect good watches to last a long long time. So repeat sale prospects aren't great, in my opinion.
At $300 I can see it working out. $500 is a big step up, for a watch / iDevice companion.
$500 is the average selling price. You can't have an average selling price of $300 when the Apple Watch starts at $349.
The Watch requires a compatible iOS device for full functionality so they look at the compatible install base of around 400m people then assume that 5% of those people will want the accessory. That's around 20m units.
You'd assume most people will buy the $349 model but the higher models will push the average selling price up.
Say that 70% buy the entry one, 25% buy the next one (assume it's priced at $550) and then 5% buy a solid gold one at $1200. That gives an ASP of $440. It's been reported at $450 in the past and I think that's a reasonable ASP. This means 20m units x $450 = $9b.
This clearly isn't much of a dent on $183b yearly revenue (4-5% as mentioned in the article) but their revenue only grew 7% between 2013 and 2014 so the Watch would comprise a larger percentage of the growth and is noted as being 35% of the expected growth from 2014 to 2015, which will be driven by the iPhone 6.
All very reasonable estimates and realistic projections.
I don't think the market for the Watch will be the luxury watch market. I think the biggest draw will be from people who buy Timex, G-Shock and other sports watches. Those watches are not attractive and have limited functionality. The Apple Watch can even be programmed by the buyer and with a language like Swift, that's compelling functionality. Sports enthusiasts can even earn money selling their app to others. You'll get golfing apps that keep scores right on the watch - there will be text input methods.
I expect somewhere between 2-20m units sold in the first year and anything above 10m would be a good result. It'll roll out to multiple countries so even 0.5m units per country should be enough to reach that.
The battery life can be improved, I don't like the homepage interaction or the aesthetic design much but for a first product they have to hit a balance between making a product you want to buy but not so good you never want to buy another one.
Comments
A watch first??? To some, maybe ... But I'll go out on a limb and predict that 80% of Apple Watch purchases will not be as an alternative to a watch timepiece!
Honestly you cant even compare the current watch market trends and tendencies to the Apple watch as being a "watch" is way down its list of intended uses. If you but the Apple watch just to tell time then I have some bridges for sale.
People are correctly focusing on it as a timepiece because that is what Apple have called it: a watch.
Sure, and smartphones are supposed to be phones first. Yet making calls is way down the list of what I do on my iPhone. Texting, e-mail, Internet browsing and company specific Apps take up most of my time. I even spend more time on social media or playing games than I do talking on the phone.
Put 1,000 people in a straight line... go down the line, hold up your iPhone and ask each person to name that object.
I can almost guarantee you that at least 980 of them will say it's a mobile phone/iPhone/phone.
... the same goes for the Apple Watch. Hell, even Apple calls it a Watch.
Maybe Apple should have called it the Apple Wristband Computing Device.
A watch first??? To some, maybe ... But I'll go out on a limb and predict that 80% of Apple Watch purchases will not be as an alternative to a watch timepiece!
I am not trying to predict or dictate how the ? Watch will be used...
Just that the ? Watch, if anything, is a solid timepiece with ideals rooted within its many aspects. The iPhone, while now a multiple usage and (for some) primary computing device will always be a phone.
No matter how people accustom to their ? Watch, it will always be a timepiece... A watch.
20 years? You must be kidding. How many original iPhones are still being used 7 yrs later? 5-6 yrs tops on a Apple Watch before it becomes completely obsolete.
Spot on. People don't really need new phones every year or two years. And I suspect ?Watch will have shelf life longer than that. I'm guessing Apple thinks it can make a decent amount of money on bands so we'll see new bands offered over time so people can freshen up their watch without having to buy a new one.
*Slowly raises hand, remembers he has a 6 sitting next to it, slowly lowers hand*
Spot on. People don't really need new phones every year or two years. And I suspect ?Watch will have shelf life longer than that. I'm guessing Apple thinks it can make a decent amount of money on bands so we'll see new bands offered over time so people can freshen up their watch without having to buy a new one.
That long? I think it will have a pretty short shelf life, in opposition.
I wouldn't be surprised to see trends similar to how the iPods sold, since it is around that price point but (seemingly) will become obsolete much faster.
I'm excited to see:)
I got to say, Who are these people??? We've had them say Apple is dying and some of them are to this day still saying that. Who are all these people Apple is going to be selling Smart Watches to? Are you going to buy one? Most everyone I know has a iPhone and yet not a single one of them has come out and said they plan to buy one!!!
Watches have been a dying market for a number of years. It's not like the phones or tablets. Nothing like when the iPhone launched or the iPad even. Why would I spend $500 on average for a Apple Watch? On a nice normal watch, Ok, I can see that. I still use rarely my nice fancy watch I got for a High School graduation present. So that has been over 20 years now and it still works. Now look at a Smart Watch. You fork out $500 on average for a watch with a limited lifespan. Forget that the battery can't be replaced, at least not very easily, but besides that, this kind of tech will be outdated with something new and improved in a couple years. So now besides replacing your iPhone every 2 years, you'll be replacing your Apple Watch every what, 2-4 years at $500 a pop on top of that phone and for what? Because you're to lazy to grab your big old phone that's on you already?
I mean come on. Has any Smart Watch even sold 1 million up to this point? If you combine them all together will you get 1 million? Pebble has sold a bunch, but they're cheap, have a long battery life, but even then I think it's only in the hundreds of thousands, not a million+. Maybe I'm wrong?!?!?!
I look at the market at who still wears watches. Does anyone else? First there's the OLD PEOPLE!!! Most don't even have a Smart phone, just a dumb phone. Or a cheap Smart phone. This is like my Grandma, wears a watch, just replaced her dumb phone with a cheap ZTE Android phone and just barely knows how to make calls on the thing. Would never get a Smart Watch. Then you have those that wear a suit on the job. Lawyers, businessmen, Judges, etc. These are people that would buy a Rolex over a Smart Watch!!! You may have your few geeks in the group. You know the ones in the past that got the Calculator Watch!!! They might get a Smart Watch. Then there's the group that put on a suit for a Wedding, Funeral, or Church!!! Maybe wear a nice watch then. It would be a dress watch, not a Smart Watch, and not wearing a watch enough to spend $500 on in the first place.
I just don't see Apple selling their planned 5 million a quarter. I don't see 1 million a quarter. 1 million in a year maybe?!?! Just because Apple is making it doesn't magically change anything. I have zero plans to get a Apple Watch. No one I know plans to get a Apple watch. I do have plans to buy a bigger iPad if/when they come out to replace my iPad 3. But No Apple Watch!!! Come on, who here really plans to buy one? Are you going to buy the cheapest $350 version or spend even more? Anyone???
It's very well disguised as a watch. It's actually an input/output device for your identity, assisted by the computer in your pocket.
Since you wear it on your wrist, might as well tell the time too.
Spot on. People don't really need new phones every year or two years. And I suspect ?Watch will have shelf life longer than that. I'm guessing Apple thinks it can make a decent amount of money on bands so we'll see new bands offered over time so people can freshen up their watch without having to buy a new one.
You guys need to get out of the nerdy-utilitarian mindset on the ?Watch. This doesn't operate on the iPhone model. A lot of people who wear watches own several of them. It's a fashion item; people wear the watch to match the mood or outfit. And like other fashion items such as shoes, jewelry, accessories, posh dresses, etc., a lot of people own more than one.
I mean come on. Has any Smart Watch even sold 1 million up to this point? If you combine them all together will you get 1 million?
The same sentiment has been expressed about tablet computers before the iPad came out. Bottomline, we just don't know how the AppleWatch will do. Just like nobody really knew how the iPad would be received by the market. Not even Apple.
It has NFC, BLE and WiFi radios ... recognize iBeacons ... make payments ... connect to ? with WiFi ... indoor / outdoor navigation ...
Will it make / receive phone calls through the iPhone across the room -- just like the Mac or iPad ...
"I've fallen and I can't get up" ... But I'm wearing my Apple Watch ...
Just need to get / monitor the basics: pulse, blood pressure, respiration, body temperature ...
Radios and batteries, likely, are its biggest challenges ...
Qualcomm has a market cap of ~ $123 Billion ...
On models with solid bands, these could contain much larger batteries ...
Radio waves can be used to charge batteries ...
Does it really need to be an all-in-one replacement for an iPhone ... will most people carry an iPhone anyway -- just for safety, security, additional capabilities ...
Quality never goes out of style ...
How many new models of mid - top-end watches are released per year by their manufacturers ,,,
How does this affect the worth / value of the existing "classic" models ...
How frequently are premium watches tuned up / repaired -- at what cost ...
Is the Apple Watch upgradeable ...
That long? I think it will have a pretty short shelf life, in opposition.
I wouldn't be surprised to see trends similar to how the iPods sold, since it is around that price point but (seemingly) will become obsolete much faster.
I'm excited to see:)
Short shelf life based on what? I'll bet one of the biggest reasons people upgrade their phones so frequently is camera improvements. ?Watch doesn't have a camera. I doubt ?Watch will be running really complex native apps that will require frequent SoC upgrades. I just don't see what will make gen 1 obsolete that quickly. And by obsolete I mean unusable.
I don't know about how it works or what it is or how much it will cost.
I don't know anyone who has got one or whether they would like it even if they did.
I just don't know how many it will sell or even if they will sell.
I am baffled every time it is mentioned.
Am am happy to record my ignorance of something that has not been released into the public domain, and at no time feel I am wasting my time.
Another thing. I have no idea what I shall be having for my tea on any day next week.
The matter has not yet been decided. I can only assume the decision shall be made by me or others nearer the time.
18 million is stunningly optimistic. The iPhone, which surely has a larger audience, sold about 10 million the first year; the iPad sold only a couple million.
The second generation will probably sell 20 million in its first year, but I don't think the first generation is likely to see that kind of uptake that quickly.
$500 is the average selling price. You can't have an average selling price of $300 when the Apple Watch starts at $349.
The Watch requires a compatible iOS device for full functionality so they look at the compatible install base of around 400m people then assume that 5% of those people will want the accessory. That's around 20m units.
You'd assume most people will buy the $349 model but the higher models will push the average selling price up.
Say that 70% buy the entry one, 25% buy the next one (assume it's priced at $550) and then 5% buy a solid gold one at $1200. That gives an ASP of $440. It's been reported at $450 in the past and I think that's a reasonable ASP. This means 20m units x $450 = $9b.
This clearly isn't much of a dent on $183b yearly revenue (4-5% as mentioned in the article) but their revenue only grew 7% between 2013 and 2014 so the Watch would comprise a larger percentage of the growth and is noted as being 35% of the expected growth from 2014 to 2015, which will be driven by the iPhone 6.
All very reasonable estimates and realistic projections.
I don't think the market for the Watch will be the luxury watch market. I think the biggest draw will be from people who buy Timex, G-Shock and other sports watches. Those watches are not attractive and have limited functionality. The Apple Watch can even be programmed by the buyer and with a language like Swift, that's compelling functionality. Sports enthusiasts can even earn money selling their app to others. You'll get golfing apps that keep scores right on the watch - there will be text input methods.
I expect somewhere between 2-20m units sold in the first year and anything above 10m would be a good result. It'll roll out to multiple countries so even 0.5m units per country should be enough to reach that.
The battery life can be improved, I don't like the homepage interaction or the aesthetic design much but for a first product they have to hit a balance between making a product you want to buy but not so good you never want to buy another one.