If true, it would be awesome. Can Apple make that many phones in a qtr?
It's probably a "pump and dump" ploy by analysts.
You probably more right than wrong there, they trying to get apple's number to raise in the next 3 weeks so they can dump it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by zoffdino
IF UBS is confident in its data, its price target would be $125 for next month. A 35% iPhone growth will move the stock massively. I assumed UBS back tested its model against past iPhone sales. What's the outcome of that experiment?
Do you really think they tested their assumptions, be real this guys are all pulling numbers out of the air, they doing the supply chain scratch and sniff to determine what number smell best to them.
Quote:
Originally Posted by schlack
69 million? how can apple beat that next year?! doomed!!
Yep they are Doomed, the talk already started last quarter that if Apple pulls this off they could never top this number so we should get out now. We have companies losing or barely making money and their stock keep climbing and Apple continues to be better than any other company in the world and people are looking for reason to drive the value down.
Even though unit sales maybe correct, they are greatly underestimating sales and especially profit. With iPhone 6, most people went out to get 64gb instead of 16gb, giving apple an extra $80 in profit per sale of a unit, you know it costs them $5-6 extra for additional storage. That's why in the first month when iphone came out, the ship time on the 64gb, was 4 weeks longer than basic or 128gb model. It was a very smart marketing decision to go from 16 to 64gb, it just makes it feel like you are getting a great deal:)
That's not that difficult, if Apple sold only iPhone6 it is about 4405 m3 or a cube of 16,4m x 16,4m x 16,4m (16,4m3).
Not quite unless you cut the phones to make them fit in an exact cube. You have to account for the dimensions of the phone so you have complete phones in all directions. I'm not explaining it very well but I hope you get it. I like the calculation though!
Even though unit sales maybe correct, they are greatly underestimating sales and especially profit. With iPhone 6, most people went out to get 64gb instead of 16gb, giving apple an extra $80 in profit per sale of a unit, you know it costs them $5-6 extra for additional storage. That's why in the first month when iphone came out, the ship time on the 64gb, was 4 weeks longer than basic or 128gb model. It was a very smart marketing decision to go from 16 to 64gb, it just makes it feel like you are getting a great deal:)
I agree more people bought the 64 and 128 models then the 16, however you cost estimates are off, the NAND that apple uses runs about $0.75/GB so cost delta will be about $36, you can not compare the cheap consumer grade SD NAND cards to what Apple is using, they are different beasts. The 64GB added around $40 to the profits.
I'm trying to imagine manufacturing 69 million of anything (in 3 months!) that a machine wasn't just stamping out.
How many employees does Foxconn have, anyway?
That's why they lead into the release: stockpiling phones to get ahead of the initial spike in demand. It's still an enormous number and an amazing manufacturing scheduling achievement: but there's some flexibility at the initial launch months.
Not quite unless you cut the phones to make them fit in an exact cube. You have to account for the dimensions of the phone so you have complete phones in all directions. I'm not explaining it very well but I hope you get it. I like the calculation though!
IIRC there's a brick laying pattern that would result in a cube using rectangular bricks, you alternate directions at the corners: so with a 6 being 2.62 by 5.44 leaving room for "mortar" and you could construct a pretty decent cube.
IIRC there's a brick laying pattern that would result in a cube using rectangular bricks, you alternate directions at the corners: so with a 6 being 2.62 by 5.44 leaving room for "mortar" and you could construct a pretty decent cube.
Yes it would still be a cube but two of the dimensions would need to be multiples of the width and height of the two phone models. The third dimension would be a multiple of them phone thickness (are they the same thickness?). The geek in me says that it would be interesting to determine the most symmetric cube dimensions given the sales numbers of each phone model. But Aple never releases that breakdown and I prefer debating the possibilities to actually doing the calculation!
Yes it would still be a cube but two of the dimensions would need to be multiples of the width and height of the two phone models. The third dimension would be a multiple of them phone thickness (are they the same thickness?). The geek in me says that it would be interesting to determine the most symmetric cube dimensions given the sales numbers of each phone model. But Aple never releases that breakdown and I prefer debating the possibilities to actually doing the calculation!
Yes, adding in the second model would get tricky. Possibly easier to build a dome like Santa Maria del Fiore.
Comments
If true, it would be awesome. Can Apple make that many phones in a qtr?
It's probably a "pump and dump" ploy by analysts.
You probably more right than wrong there, they trying to get apple's number to raise in the next 3 weeks so they can dump it.
IF UBS is confident in its data, its price target would be $125 for next month. A 35% iPhone growth will move the stock massively. I assumed UBS back tested its model against past iPhone sales. What's the outcome of that experiment?
Do you really think they tested their assumptions, be real this guys are all pulling numbers out of the air, they doing the supply chain scratch and sniff to determine what number smell best to them.
69 million? how can apple beat that next year?! doomed!!
Yep they are Doomed, the talk already started last quarter that if Apple pulls this off they could never top this number so we should get out now. We have companies losing or barely making money and their stock keep climbing and Apple continues to be better than any other company in the world and people are looking for reason to drive the value down.
Sept 2012 - $700
You're so silly.
But even if Apple sold 69m phones, we probably wouldn't see reflection until after the 27th.
Even though unit sales maybe correct, they are greatly underestimating sales and especially profit. With iPhone 6, most people went out to get 64gb instead of 16gb, giving apple an extra $80 in profit per sale of a unit, you know it costs them $5-6 extra for additional storage. That's why in the first month when iphone came out, the ship time on the 64gb, was 4 weeks longer than basic or 128gb model. It was a very smart marketing decision to go from 16 to 64gb, it just makes it feel like you are getting a great deal:)
I've always thought it would be close to 65 million... which is still massive.
Trying to imagine what 69 million iPhones would look like if they were all set out together.
I'm trying to imagine manufacturing 69 million of anything (in 3 months!) that a machine wasn't just stamping out.
How many employees does Foxconn have, anyway?
Not quite unless you cut the phones to make them fit in an exact cube. You have to account for the dimensions of the phone so you have complete phones in all directions. I'm not explaining it very well but I hope you get it. I like the calculation though!
69 million people work at Foxconn. Each one makes one phone. ????
After they make 'em, they each jump off a cliff like lemmings. ????
Even though unit sales maybe correct, they are greatly underestimating sales and especially profit. With iPhone 6, most people went out to get 64gb instead of 16gb, giving apple an extra $80 in profit per sale of a unit, you know it costs them $5-6 extra for additional storage. That's why in the first month when iphone came out, the ship time on the 64gb, was 4 weeks longer than basic or 128gb model. It was a very smart marketing decision to go from 16 to 64gb, it just makes it feel like you are getting a great deal:)
I agree more people bought the 64 and 128 models then the 16, however you cost estimates are off, the NAND that apple uses runs about $0.75/GB so cost delta will be about $36, you can not compare the cheap consumer grade SD NAND cards to what Apple is using, they are different beasts. The 64GB added around $40 to the profits.
We could reach Uranus with that many iPhones. Ha!!!
Edit: apologies I quoted the wrong person.
I'm trying to imagine manufacturing 69 million of anything (in 3 months!) that a machine wasn't just stamping out.
How many employees does Foxconn have, anyway?
That's why they lead into the release: stockpiling phones to get ahead of the initial spike in demand. It's still an enormous number and an amazing manufacturing scheduling achievement: but there's some flexibility at the initial launch months.
Thoughts already rolling thru my head!
Get your head out of the gutter! Meh, screw it, let me join in!
And we'll all be there when the time is right to do this:
[VIDEO]<iframe width="420" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/RM6Dywb4ux4" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>[/VIDEO]
Don't ruin it for all the nerds in here having nerdgasms!!!
That's what she said... :smokey:
Thanks, you are correct. I did a bit of googling. 16gb =$7.30 down from $9.30 last year, 64gb=$31, and 128gb=63$.
So the rough profit on 64gb is (100-31+7.30=) 76.30 $-30% retail markup, of about $50, 128gb prolly brings in $100 extra profit.
Not quite unless you cut the phones to make them fit in an exact cube. You have to account for the dimensions of the phone so you have complete phones in all directions. I'm not explaining it very well but I hope you get it. I like the calculation though!
IIRC there's a brick laying pattern that would result in a cube using rectangular bricks, you alternate directions at the corners: so with a 6 being 2.62 by 5.44 leaving room for "mortar" and you could construct a pretty decent cube.
Yes it would still be a cube but two of the dimensions would need to be multiples of the width and height of the two phone models. The third dimension would be a multiple of them phone thickness (are they the same thickness?). The geek in me says that it would be interesting to determine the most symmetric cube dimensions given the sales numbers of each phone model. But Aple never releases that breakdown and I prefer debating the possibilities to actually doing the calculation!
Yes it would still be a cube but two of the dimensions would need to be multiples of the width and height of the two phone models. The third dimension would be a multiple of them phone thickness (are they the same thickness?). The geek in me says that it would be interesting to determine the most symmetric cube dimensions given the sales numbers of each phone model. But Aple never releases that breakdown and I prefer debating the possibilities to actually doing the calculation!
Yes, adding in the second model would get tricky. Possibly easier to build a dome like Santa Maria del Fiore.
http://www.obscure.org/~perky/uofr/fall2002/ISYS203U/Duomo_Site/construction.html
That would be one expensive dome!
That would be roughly 766,666 iPhone produced every day.
Assuming the factories run 24 hours a day... that would be 31,944 iPhones produced every hour.
Or 532 iPhones produced every minute.
Or almost 9 iPhones produced every second.
So... in the time it took you to read this comment... 90 iPhones were just built.
:wow:
When has Apple stock ever been where it should be? It's always been undervalued.
The market isn't rational. And I think America loves an underdog - like Amazon?