Apple's fate is sealed, doom lurks in the wings.

in General Discussion edited January 2014
This is why Apple is totally fu[ked with respect to system performance:

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I'll sum it up for you all: Pentium 4 hits 2.4 GHz.

Please. The G4 is NOT so efficient that a 1 GHz G4 can keep up with an x86 chip that is clocked to over twice the GHz! That's ridiculous. Even more ludicrous is the comparison between Powermacs and Dells of similar cost: it pits the 800 MHz Powermac G4 against the 2.4 GHz Dell box...which is clocked a FULL THREE TIMES FASTER THAN A SIMILARLY PRICED G4!!! It's as if Motorola has simply given up.

It's nice that Apple is offering dual 1 GHz CPUs, but it's not a solution to the problem. And the dual G4s are only on the high end powermacs! I can buy a 2.4 GHz Wintel for the same price as the LOW END Powermac G4, in which case the Pentium is THREE times as fast as the G4! THREE (3) TIMES as FAST!!!! WTF?!?!? And what about dual Pentium 4 boxes? So much for the dual powermac advantage. Apple is YEARS behind Wintels in hardware performance--YEARS!!! It's like Apple hardware sunk into a vat of cryogenic preservatives 5 years ago and is now competing against cutting edge Wintels. It feels like Apple is making the equivalent of the Commodor 64 and the competition all are building Mac-like computers for LESS MONEY. The absurdity of the situation is astounding.

Apple MUST be totally insane. They cannot sustain sales in the face of such competition. Soon Apple's core markets will begin migrating to Wintels, because they are not only cheaper, but higher performance. It doesn't matter how great OS X is, professionals are going to move to Wintel if the performance gap is so enormous. Powermacs can be designed to give unlimited, simulated blow jobs and Apple will still lose their core markets...because in the end if a professional can spend less on a Wintel and get better performance, and spend less time watching progress bars, well the choice is obvious. No matter how much Windows sucks the choice is not going to be the Mac. Not if it's ancient hardware.

Check out Apple's sales figures and the future is bleak. The migration is already underway, with Mac sales slipping every quarter. A few blips with new product intros, but the overall trend is unmistakable. Macs cannot compete with superior Wintel hardware.

Apple is doomed unless something drastic is done. At the very least, Apple needs G5 powermacs by MWNY clocked to 1.6, 1.8, 2.0 GHz. And we KNOW that this is totally impossible. Best case scenario is G5s at 1.0, 1.2, 1.4 GHz. Still about half the clockspeed of the Pentiums, and of course the pentiums will hit 3 GHz before Moto even manages a single speed bump to the G5, IF the G5 even shows up! Even if Moto delivers the impossible, by next fall Macs will once again be clocked to half the GHz of Wintels that cost about half as much.

Apple is fu[ked. They gave it their very best, but in the end Apple will be done in not by their own shortcomings, but by those of Motorola. It is so sad to see Apple brought down by one of their suppliers. Nobody would feel bad if Apple went belly up because of their own ineptitude, but the current PPC situation is a tragedy of epic proportions. It's enough to bring grown men to tears. The efforts of Apple engineers over the past few years have been utterly amazing, but in the end it will be for nothing. The coolest OS EVER will be for nothing. The innovative design will be nothing more than a cautionary footnote in the annals of the computer industry. We're all going to have the equivalent of Amiga's rotting in our closets before long.

At least we'll save money on Wintels after Apple is gone. It's always good to see the glass as half full. And when we buy new computers, we won't have to throw out the mouse before even opening the box. The future is not all dark for Mac users, but for Apple, I fear the worst.


  • Reply 1 of 134
    spindlerspindler Posts: 713member
    There is some truth to what you are saying.

    PowerMac sales have slipped from 350,000 - 400,000 units a quarter down to 200,000 - 275,000 per quarter and I don't see them going back up. The good news though is that in the past Steve Jobs sold Next Cubes that could take up to eight processors. I don't see why they can't make quad processor or better machines and they have customers that will buy them.

    Sales have slipped in the consumer space only because the CRT iMac was anemic and outdated. Steve Jobs made a big mistake by not introducing a 17 inch CRT iMac. Perhaps it would have been a pedestrian undertaking but it would have been a strong seller. I think Apple will get back to around a million units a quarter with the new iMac but the MHZ gap has to take it's toll eventually.

    What happens when Moto is at 2 GHZ and Intel at 5.5GHZ? How are you going to sell 1.4GHZ iMacs when you can buy a 4.2GHZ PC for cheap? Something has to give.

    [ 04-02-2002: Message edited by: spindler ]</p>
  • Reply 2 of 134
    I don't think Apple is dead yet, but if the current course continues for the next couple years, you will be right. They need a major leap in speed, and get close to where AMD is these days. If they can't manage that, it becomes more and more difficult to justify buying a Mac, despite the large number of advantages the platform offers.

    Apple has time, if they can close the performance gap within the next 18 months or so, I think the future will be very bright. An operating system that kick that pants of anything M$ has to offer, competitive hardware in a great looking package will succeed. But you are right that the performance gap now is more than embarrassing; it's devastating.

    Apple has the time, let's hope they don't become the next Polaroid or Xerox.
  • Reply 3 of 134
    eugeneeugene Posts: 8,254member
    SGI's not dead yet and the R14000A is stuck at 600 MHz...

    [ 04-02-2002: Message edited by: Eugene ]</p>
  • Reply 4 of 134
    idogcowidogcow Posts: 111member
    Apple has been dying since the debut of the Macintosh for goodness sake..Apple's always doomed by someone or another..They'll will pull themselves out like they always have.

    Even if it means OS X for x86. Apple may give it a shot if it gets too desperate.
  • Reply 4 of 134
    [quote]Soon Apple's core markets will begin migrating to Wintels, because they are not only cheaper, but higher performance.<hr></blockquote>

    This began with the introduction of the Athlon in 1999. Sales, revenues and profits have dwindled while R&D and other costs have risen. To say the situation is bleak is an understatement.

    At the current rates of progress, Apple will be at 2GHz in the year 2004 while Intel will be at 6-8GHz at lower price points.

    And lets not forget the upcoming AMD 64bit CPU that should blow everything away in FPU performance under $5000. It arrives this fall.

    I don't see Apple surviving past the year 2005. I certainly plan to switch to x86 a lot sooner.

    [ 04-02-2002: Message edited by: Nostradamus ]</p>
  • Reply 6 of 134
    [quote]Originally posted by Eugene:

    <strong>SGI's not dead yet and the R14000A is stuck at 600 MHz...


    SGI is not a consumer company and they operate in an extremely tight niche market.

    [ 04-02-2002: Message edited by: Nostradamus ]</p>
  • Reply 7 of 134
    bigcbigc Posts: 1,224member
    Yeah, and the sky is falling too.
  • Reply 8 of 134
    [quote]Originally posted by Nostradamus:


    At the current rates of progress, Apple will be at 2GHz in the year 2004 while Intel will be at 6-8GHz at lower price points.

    [ 04-02-2002: Message edited by: Nostradamus ]</strong><hr></blockquote>

    The current rate of progress isn't the problem; their speed has doubled within the last 18 months. The problem is that they haven't recovered from 2 years of stagnation. That means they have to do better than the competition if they hope to catch up. That's a pretty big if.
  • Reply 9 of 134
    max8319max8319 Posts: 347member
    they seem to be selling a lot of imacs, ipods, ibooks....they're not doing too bad.

    apple's never going to get to 15% market share, but it will survive. apple has many loyal customers.....

    they will survive....but probably won't grow much.
  • Reply 10 of 134
    airslufairsluf Posts: 1,861member
  • Reply 11 of 134
    The only glimmer of hope I've detected is Apple's recent interest in 3d rendering software.

    Current Mac hardware is terrible for 3d work, it just plain sucks. Thus if Apple is formulating a plan for capturing the 3d design market, part of the plan MUST include competitive hardware.

    It's circumstantial evidence, but it's the most hopeful evidence I've seen lately for a bright Apple future.

    It's true that Apple has been in tight situations before, but this time it's different. Let me clarify:

    In the mid 90s when Apple was doing poorly and doomsday predictions were made, the company had internal problems that could be fixed. They were problems with Apple:

    ?Poor management.

    ?Confusing product line

    ?Too much unfocused R&D efforts.

    ?Lame OS architecture with no future.

    ?Little to differentiate Macs form Wintels

    But in Apple's favor, the PPC line had great promise, and Mac hardware, while expensive, was still priced within range of Wintel hardware.

    But now, the circumstances are beyond Apple's control. Now, Apple is doing everything RIGHT, and they are still losing.

    ?Top notch management.

    ?Excellent product line, well focused, beautiful hardware.

    ?Focused, efficient R&D.

    ?Best OS ever, and it's future looks even better!

    ?Amazing software to compliment OS X and differentiate Macs from Wintels.

    Even PC Mags admit that Apple's iApplications are superior to Wintel offerings, and they are grudgingly admitting that OS X is indeed a powerful OS with a bright future. From a software point of view, Macs haven't been this far ahead of Wintels since the days of DOS.

    To summarize, Apple is doing EVERYTHING in their power to pump out the best computers they can. Their management is among the best in the industry, their design is primo. Apple is doing everything right.

    The problems facing Apple today are unfortunately out of Apple's control. There is the obvious problem of the PPC architecture. But there is the more insidious problem of sales volume. Apple is on a slippery slope where because of their low production volume, costs are higher. Those high costs lead to less sales, even lower volume, and thus even higher costs. It's a vicious circle with no clear way out.

    As for Motorola, that's out of Apple's control. I suppose Jobs could go over and start bitch-slapping some Moto execs, but that probably wouldn't help scale the G4, or bring the G5 any closer to reality.

    So comments like, "Apple's always doomed," or "the sky is falling again", demonstrate that some posters don't understand the problems currently facing Apple. They are a different set of problems than in the 90s, and in many ways they are more formidable, and in some cases nearly insurmountable.

    But please understand, I wish I were chicken little and Steve Jobs would bust out a 2 GHz, $1200 Powermac G5. I really wish that would happen, for the sake of all the Mac users who have so much invested in the platform, who understand and appreciate quality, and most of all, who are the coolest computer users on the planet.
  • Reply 12 of 134
    amorphamorph Posts: 7,112member
    [quote]Originally posted by Nostradamus:


    SGI is not a consumer company and they operate in an extremely tight niche market.


    Consumers don't care about MHz anymore - there's more than enough to go around now - and they aren't the point of this thread anyway. The problem, as the original poster saw it, was with the professional lines.

    Apple has a few niche markets. The demands of their consumer niche (and some of their professional niches - roughly 1 lawyer in 4 in the US is a Mac user) are satisfied by uniquely functional, compatible machines running uniquely functional, compatible software at competitive prices. The demands of their main professional markets are satisfied by acceptable speed and a raftload of advantages that don't show up on software benchmarks, such as AppleScript, ColorSync, lower maintenance costs, etc. The educational market has innovative and inexpensive hardware and software solutions. The brand-new (for Apple) UNIX workstation market is attracted by a (relatively) dirt cheap machine that doubles as a general-purpose PC and a workstation.

    That's not to say that Apple has no problems. The processor speed issue is a real one, and it's been dogging them for a while now. But they've faced worse obstacles and overcome them. Several times. As another poster said, Apple's been dying since they were founded. They aren't dead yet.
  • Reply 13 of 134
    macjedaimacjedai Posts: 263member
    [quote]Originally posted by Amorph:


    Consumers don't care about MHz anymore - ... They aren't dead yet.</strong><hr></blockquote>

    I agree with most of what you said (although some consumers still can't get over the MHz myth, unfortunately ... some of them are usually high up in corporations as well), but Apple must take swift action in order to be successful. As I asked on another thread, when is the contract up that releases Apple from having Moto as a primary supplier? I think it is coming up soon, and I think that is one reason why Apple has taken an interest in processor development/production. JYD, keep calling them as you see them, some folks need the "shock treatment" to WAKEUP. And if enough of us wakeup, maybe, just maybe, Apple will listen more intently. I'm hoping it occurs sooner, rather than later. I've been waiting quite a while to buy a new Mac (with new architecture MB / DDR and all the trimmings). My "FrankenMac" 9600 is getting kinda old, and can't handle the newer games the way it used to (yes, it's modded, but the mobo is slow).
  • Reply 14 of 134
    pscatespscates Posts: 5,847member
    Speed, speed, speed. MHz, MHz, MHz, us vs. them, Mac vs. PCs, processor envy, numbers, benchmarks, etc.

    Buy a goddamn PC then. If sheer speed/performance is your main desire and strongest requirement, you might be using the wrong platform.

    I don't know what else to say.

    I'll take a sub-1GHz Mac over a 2.4GHz PC anyday, because - as I've said many times before - it's more than just the MHz and outright speed that appeals to, or impresses, me.

    Speed is down to about number 5 or 6 on my list, to be honest. I kinda dig the other stuff: ease of use, tight integration of software/hardware, the OS, cool industrial design, the iApps, the cool "whole widget" approach from Apple, etc.

    All those things trump the hell out of any MHz rating. To me, anyway.
  • Reply 15 of 134
    macjedaimacjedai Posts: 263member
    [quote]Originally posted by pscates:

    <strong>Speed, speed, speed. MHz, MHz, MHz, us vs. them, Mac vs. PCs, processor envy, numbers, benchmarks, etc.

    Buy a goddamn PC then. If sheer speed/performance is your main desire and strongest requirement, you might be using the wrong platform.

    I don't know what else to say.

    I'll take a sub-1GHz Mac over a 2.4GHz PC anyday, because - as I've said many times before - it's more than just the MHz and outright speed that appeals to, or impresses, me.

    Speed is down to about number 5 or 6 on my list, to be honest. I kinda dig the other stuff: ease of use, tight integration of software/hardware, the OS, cool industrial design, the iApps, the cool "whole widget" approach from Apple, etc.

    All those things trump the hell out of any MHz rating. To me, anyway.</strong><hr></blockquote>

    Speaking for myself, it's not MHz and speed, speed, speed. It's how well I can run my apps, games, and naturally the user experience. I work/fix PCs Monday through Friday (I'm a Field Technician for part of the AIM alliance, and I'm not talk'n Apple), and believe me, working on PCs makes me appreciate the Mac alot more than most folks. The last thing I want to do is fix a computer when I get home (hence my primary machine being a Mac). Now granted, my lack of performance is my own fault (a PM9600 with an XLR8 G4/450, 768MB RAM, and an ATI Radeon isn't anything to sneeze at), but high frame rate graphics IS lacking. You might say, drop the $$ and get a DP GHz setup ... and it may come down to that, if Apple doesn't get off its @$$, but I'd rather drop the coinage on a more up-to-date system (meaning a motherboard with better than PC133 RAM). And to answer one of your suggestions, I not only recently bought, but built a PC just to mess around with technology that Apple should already have in their Pro-Line currently (the PC has a P4/ 1.8GHz, 512MB PC2700/333MHz DDR, NVidia GF3 Ti, WinXP Prof &lt;yuck&gt; all for under $1,000 monitor not included). The point of this thread is to shake some folks out of the idea that Apple is doing well, when actually Apple needs to take action to prevent sliding down a hill to non-existance. Part of that preventive maintenance (in my opinion) is bringing the technology in the motherboard up to current standards, while attempting to close the MHz gap. Which opens a whole new "can of worms", as voiced earlier in this thread ... It's out of Apple's Hands, and Moto plays a good part in it. Hence my question on when the AIM contract is up? I still prefer my Mac, but the differences between it and the PC are becoming fewer, and if I see it, what about the rest of the world.
  • Reply 16 of 134
    jimmacjimmac Posts: 11,898member
    Hey all,

    There is a small glimmer of hope, Think Secret has a line on a rumor of a new Powermac to be released in August ( perhaps announced at MWNY ? ).

    OS X has been going well, it would be nice for Apple to take this situation seriously. Steve Jobs is no dummy so it's like this : Ether apple knows the writing is on the wall and just won't admit it yet, or they have something up their sleeve. I hope for the latter.
  • Reply 17 of 134
    reynardreynard Posts: 160member
    I started reading this site about 4 years ago. (Just a rough estimation) Apple was recovering; the iMac was a hit and the blue G3 tower was beautiful and competitive. The biggest complaint was the round mouse. The rumors focused on how Apple would beat itself with the next machine, not so much how it would compare to Wintel. And the G4 "supercomputer" came out it seemed that Apple had just begun to fight. Yeah!

    I mainly read for the curiosity, and the vicarious thrill it gave me to hear about what the "big boys" were doing with their computers and what more they could do when the new machines came out. (Ironic I use the term "big boys" when most of you are one third my 48 years of age.) Myself, getting the red eye out of a photo is a big accomplishment. But I AM a consumer. And a teacher. And it is getting harder to justfify choosing Mac.

    I just bought a 733 G4. I dont regret it. I think OSX has potential. And I love the 17" Studio Display. But my son wanted a Wintel. Just as recently as a year ago, I was dismissing his requests to go over to the dark side. It was just a fad I assumed--his friend bought a PC and he wanted to be like him. Guess what? I bought him an HP. YOu dont need to hear all that it comes with and for how little $.

    But there is more. Its NEVER frozen in 3 weeks. My G4 has several times. It is so quick. Here I mean just for opening windows, applications, etc. Just basic stuff. And that XP is not a bad operating system. I mean it works. Its not pretty. But its logical, quick, and stable. (But its true that it seems to have no soul! Just like its owner, Bill Gates. Ok, there's my one jab)

    I owe Apple a lot. Were it not for their OS and the Mac Classic, I may never have done anything but word processing and AOL. I have hundreds of files Ive created on the Mac that have really helped me reach my students. I can zero in on a certain skill that just isnt explained well in the book nor the support materials. I love Apple. But like I said, its getting hard for today's consumer to justify an Apple purchase. Not for the old timers, or even most of those now using Macs. But the people buying their first computer, I could not begrudge them buying a PC. Hell, buy two of them for the price of a Mac and use the second if your first breaks down!!

    Yes, Apple has very solid, stable market segments out there. People dont want to change computers. But are we so committed that we will persuade our friends or even our children to buy Apple? Especially our children when we parents are paying for the computer! Apple's famed loyal customer base will buy it some time. But how long can they continue with just bandages? Market share has to go up, not just plateau. Its too low now. And please resist saying such things as:

    "Apple has been pronounced dead many times; Apple isnt going anywhere!"

    I dont really consider the day that Apple is gone. I worry more their products simply becoming uncompetitive. Many people think that has already happened. Personally, Im not bragging about getting a G4 Power Mac. Just two years ago I would have thought I would have been telling everybody about my powerful G4 tower.

    Here, we are all rooting for Apple. Few other companies have had the creativitly and style of Apple. I would sorely miss their elegance.
  • Reply 18 of 134
    b8rtm8nnb8rtm8nn Posts: 55member
    It is transitional year, but the one thing Apple didn't count on was the strong Unix response. You would be surprised how many IT folks are considering using OSX for high end tasks, they are waiting for better hardware and server software, but they are paying attention. There is tremendous pressure to port OSX server to x86, there is tremendous pressure to bring OSX up to speed with BSD from the Unix community, there is tremendous pressure for Apple to split it's focus internally to groups that can focus on consumers, folks that handle pro USERS and folks that are IT professionals.

    The point is, not too many pro users have moved from OS9 yet, new hardware will most likely arrive this summer and OSX should be updated, because it is slow. But the potential of Apple has increased exponentially in the last two years, their employee roster is filling up with some legends and they have cash to help them through any tough times. We are going through a big transition for Apple, but I haven't heard any real rumblings from developers or Apple's partners, so the doom and gloom speak is woefully premature.
  • Reply 19 of 134
    stimulistimuli Posts: 564member
    Well, I'll spell it out for ya.

    The G5 is 64bit -not 32 bit- and is aimed at high end machines. By high end I mean 'blow SGIs out of the water.' They will have sophisticated graphics subsystems designed, from the ground up, to do media calculations. Like quicktime compression. Like 3D that the world has never seen.

    But there's no way you'll be able to afford one. Sorry, but like I said, these new powermacs will be SGI style contenders.

    What YOU'll be buying in the near future is a mid-tier powermac, likely dual, with fancier, scalable, high-clocked G4s. DDR, ATA 133, GeForce 4s. They will be fast, but still consumer-grade.

    Believe it or not, not one person in this forum has a use for a 64 bit, $10,000+ workstation. Unless you are using Maya, or realtime effects compositing, or real time streaming to 1000 seperate people, at three different compression levels.

    In my mind, from a consumer standpoint, the interesting stuff will be iApps and much more optimized code compilers, so you'll have a wealth of Unix (Linux,*BSD) apps to play with. Which might sound lame, but it actually isn't, when you consider the momentum Linux and BSD are gaining these days.
  • Reply 20 of 134
    eugeneeugene Posts: 8,254member
    Nostradamus, and Apple operates in a niche market as well. Your point?
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