Insider advises Apple investors to brace for 50% plunge in iPad sales this quarter

Posted:
in iPad edited September 2015
Apple's shrinking iPad sales are expected to continue their downward trend this year, led by a particularly drastic year over year drop this quarter, according to well-connected analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who does not expect a new 12.9-inch model to turn things around in the immediate future.




Kuo, of KGI Securities, believes iPad shipments will "struggle to top" 45 million units this year, he said in a new research note on Friday, a copy of which was obtained by AppleInsider. That would result in a 30 percent year over year decline from 2014.

Apple is expected to introduce a new 12.9-inch iPad model this year, and Kuo still believes that larger form factor is on track to launch. However, he doesn't expect the new model to "contribute meaningfully to shipments momentum anytime soon."

Kuo believes iPad sales will get off to a particularly rough start in 2015, with his projections calling for shipments to decline 52.7 percent in the first quarter of calendar 2015 to just 10.1 million units. Next quarter, he expects them to drop another 30 to 40 percent to between 7 million and 8 million units.




Kuo's predictions call for iPad shipments in 2015 to witness their steepest decline in the product's short five-year history.

Last month, Kuo was well above market expectations when he said he believed Apple had shipped 73 million iPhones in the December quarter. His lofty estimate proved more accurate than most, as Apple soon after reported massive record sales of 74.5 million iPhones in the three-month period.
«13456710

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 186

    Will it be profitable? Yes.

     

    Is it still selling enough for Apple to continue development? Yes.

     

    Will analysts use this as a reason to eviscerate Apple and Tim Cook, and downgrade the stock? Of course!

     

     

    Is there room for improvement in the iPad line? You bet.

  • Reply 2 of 186
    The lighter they make it, the slower it'll drop ¡
  • Reply 3 of 186
    And the shorting begins...
  • Reply 4 of 186
    LOL @ Kuo.
  • Reply 5 of 186

    I would guess he's probably close with his predictions.  The iPad has likely hit close to its saturation point and given the size increase in iPhones, many people, myself included, use the iPad much less and have less reason to upgrade.

     

    Going bigger will simply open up a percentage of the market that wants / needs a bigger screen size, but I don't see it being a game changer that gets millions to upgrade from the iPad 4, Air and Air 2.  

     

    I'm not even convinced a bigger screen iPad is something that will work without additional peripherals, like the Surface Pro needs its keyboard.  Sure, there are some situations where a bigger screen can function without a keyboard, such as watching videos, gaming or acting as a reader or photo viewer, but otherwise, going bigger presents issues with weight and handling, making it more likely to be used like a laptop.  At least that is my take on it.

  • Reply 6 of 186
    The iPad is the new now-dead iPod - but this time without SJ to create true new demand for the next big thing.

    Its purported "replacement"? The pathetic AWatch.

    At least give us a new Mac Pro, then.
  • Reply 7 of 186
    How is Kuo an insider? He is a street analyst, not an Apple employee.
  • Reply 8 of 186
    jfc1138jfc1138 Posts: 3,090member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by brlawyer View Post



    The iPad is the new now-dead iPod - but this time without SJ to create true new demand for the next big thing.



    Its purported "replacement"? The pathetic AWatch.



    At least give us a new Mac Pro, then.



    Steve's dead, time to move on.

     

    The Mac Pro? Yeah that's a company saver... ROTFLMAO. Something that screams "niche product"?

    http://www.apple.com/mac-pro/performance/

     

    Good one.

  • Reply 9 of 186
    They need IMHO to converge its usage with OS - it can operate as both iPad and computer. If not that at least expand capability with the simple addition of recognizing a mouse so it can be used as a traditional display when doing word processing. I actually think expanding its function with mouse capability would blur the lines further and expand its usage especially in school settings.

    With mouse capability it could simply toggle on when it recognizes a mouse being used when paired. Need to do things to distinguish it from the iPhone.
  • Reply 10 of 186
    I don't think not upgrading the mini helps their sales. Most people who like the mini size probably skipped this expensive insulting upgrade our lack there of
  • Reply 11 of 186

    Still, 45 million is double what Apple sells in Macs. So...that's not too bad.

     

    Yes, once you get a big screen phone and already have a computer...it's hard to see where the iPad fits in 90% of the time. For some people, their phone is their computer 100% of the time.

     

    (With that said, and iPad is a great computer for a lot of people, so combo phone/iPad can easily be their setup. Most people do not need a full-fledged computer. An iPad or a Chromebook would be just fine.)

  • Reply 12 of 186
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,307member
    brlawyer wrote: »
    The iPad is the new now-dead iPod - but this time without SJ to create true new demand for the next big thing.

    Its purported "replacement"? The pathetic AWatch.

    At least give us a new Mac Pro, then.

    Not figured out ? yet?
  • Reply 13 of 186
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 4,019member

    Just consider iPad as larger iPod and they should be placed in the same category. Who upgrades iPod every year or 2 years? Pretty much the same here. I don't see myself to upgrade iPad every 2 years either. I got iPad Mini 2 and Air when they're released and won't see myself to upgrade it in the next 2 years.

  • Reply 14 of 186
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 4,019member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by iZENstein View Post



    They need IMHO to converge its usage with OS - it can operate as both iPad and computer. If not that at least expand capability with the simple addition of recognizing a mouse so it can be used as a traditional display when doing word processing. I actually think expanding its function with mouse capability would blur the lines further and expand its usage especially in school settings.



    With mouse capability it could simply toggle on when it recognizes a mouse being used when paired. Need to do things to distinguish it from the iPhone.

    Merging to use OS? no, no. It will further damage to the laptop sale. Bad business and financial move. 

  • Reply 15 of 186
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 4,019member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by brlawyer View Post



    The iPad is the new now-dead iPod - but this time without SJ to create true new demand for the next big thing.



    Its purported "replacement"? The pathetic AWatch.



    At least give us a new Mac Pro, then.

    You will be eating your words when Apple Watch hits the shelf. My prediction is that Apple Watch sale number will be over 15 millions the first year.

  • Reply 16 of 186
    And Apple is doomed blah blah blah, Groundhog Day all over again.
  • Reply 17 of 186

    Just make a 6 inch iPhone and be done with it.  lol

  • Reply 18 of 186
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by iZENstein View Post



    They need IMHO to converge its usage with OS - it can operate as both iPad and computer. 

     

    I agree. A 12" iPad that can dock or connect to a keyboard/trackpad accessory and automatically switch to OS X would have me very interested in purchasing this new device. Avoiding the need to carry two devices would be a huge benefit -- having all the benefits of iOS and OS X together in one streamlined package. 

     

    I am sure the computing power would be limited to some degree, but it wouldn't be a problem for many as long as it is powerful enough to handle common tasks. Not sure how they would handle the fact that iOS runs on ARM and OS X on Intel -- but I'm sure there's a way they could make it work. 

  • Reply 19 of 186
    What's the emoticon for laughing and pointing at yet another loser analyst who pretends to be an "insider" to buttress yet another round of "Apple is doomed" predictions?
  • Reply 20 of 186
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 4,019member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

    This is the same clown that said the iPhone6+ would be delayed till 2015

     

    Same clown who said the iWatch was coming out in Dec2014

     

    Clown also said a new AppleTv was coming out in Nov2014

     

    http://appleinsider.com/articles/14/07/13/analyst-ming-chi-kuo-apples-55-inch-iphone-6-faces-production-issues-launch-may-be-pushed-to-2015


    Same clown who said iPhone 5C would be a flop too? LOL

    http://appadvice.com/appnn/2013/10/reliable-analyst-cuts-sales-forecast-for-the-iphone-5c

Sign In or Register to comment.