Insider advises Apple investors to brace for 50% plunge in iPad sales this quarter

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  • Reply 161 of 186
    foggyhillfoggyhill Posts: 4,767member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

     

     

    How was the Air 2 major upgrade over the Air? Because it has the 2GB RAM the Air should have had in the first place? How many developers and consumers are taking advantage of the powerful A8X chip? Don't get me wrong, I love my Air 2 but the only reason I upgraded was for the additional RAM. I definitely have fewer Safari page reloads but unfortunately Safari on iOS 8 is worse than it was on iOS 7 and more RAM can't solve for that.


     

    Are you even serious?

    - Much much stronger CPU/GPU (the GPU part especially is a monster)

    - Touch ID

    - Bonded screen

    - Less reflective screen

    - Both significantly thinner & Lighter

    - NFC

    -  Much better cameras 8MP main camera + Facetime 1.2MP camera with better low light performance

    - 802.11ac WIFI

    - Cheaper storage options 16G/64G/128G

    - RAM (that's probably the lesser thing they updated)

    - More colour options

     

    - The only regression is 8% less battery time a bit more than 10h instead of a bit over 11h (since 11h was over what they promised the last time or this time (10h), its explainable).

    That's a very significant upgrade within the form factor. What on earth would you want more?

     

    If you use the Ipad only to browse the web and don't lock your phone, obviously you won't see a lot of difference since that doesn't really use : NFC, WIFI, the camera, and the GPU/CPU or need much storage; though it being lighter with a less reflective bonded screen should still matter to you.

  • Reply 162 of 186
    pazuzupazuzu Posts: 1,728member
    crosslad wrote: »
    I love my iPad mini retina. I use it for email, as an ebook reader, document editor, music player, video editor, photo editor, video editor, watching tv and playing the odd game. It prints to and scans from my wireless printer, connects to my Bluetooth keyboard, and connects via a wifi hub to an external hard drive and via a Apple TV to my 42" TV. What more do you want from a computer that is about the same size as thin paperback book?

    Power
  • Reply 163 of 186
    mstonemstone Posts: 11,510member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by pazuzu View Post



    Power

    It apparently works for him, however, personally,  I don't use my iPad to that extent because I have an iMac 5K and a Mac Pro and a MBP so iPad is just a casual device for me and I am sure many others fall into the same usage scenario.

  • Reply 164 of 186
    sirozha wrote: »
    Apple never wanted to make an iPad Mini or a 5" iPhone. Yet they have.

    There was not going to be an App Store for iOS, nor was there going to be the iBooks Store because according to Steve Jobs "people don't read books anymore."

    I refuse job offers if a prospective employer doesn't issue or allow Macs, so I'm no WINTEL fan. However, some friends of mine who work exclusively in Windows LOVE Surface Pro 3. There's definitely a use case for such a hybrid device and not only for light home use, but also for network engineering work.

    Jobs would often say stuff that was a diversion or he was a poor sport. The only reason for no initial store was that it wasn't ready. Steve "lied" for a reason. Or just said outlandish stuff. That was a lot of fun. Now it is Tim Everything Is Great Cook.
  • Reply 165 of 186
    I think future iPads and iPhones should have a feature that was in the Newton and in the Palm PDA only to be dropped by most smartphone/tablet manufacturers...bring back the IR transmitter/sensor and make it super powered. Add some hooks into Swift so that you can use your iOS device as the one universal remote control to work with anything that uses an IR remote, the sensor would allow it to learn from your current remote. Tie it into Siri so that you can tell Siri to change channels, to look for your favorite show and turn it on or record it if you have a DVR. Manufacturers would be all over it developing iOS apps for their devices. Allow for encrypted transmissions over IR like how they used to allow the exchange of data in the past without blasting out a wireless signal. Maybe it can beam out the infrared and show the results on the screen in the dark. Or combo an IR and audio burst and receive both to see in the dark or something.
  • Reply 166 of 186
    jmgregory1 wrote: »
    I would guess he's probably close with his predictions.  The iPad has likely hit close to its saturation point and given the size increase in iPhones, many people, myself included, use the iPad much less and have less reason to upgrade.

    Going bigger will simply open up a percentage of the market that wants / needs a bigger screen size, but I don't see it being a game changer that gets millions to upgrade from the iPad 4, Air and Air 2.  

    I'm not even convinced a bigger screen iPad is something that will work without additional peripherals, like the Surface Pro needs its keyboard.  Sure, there are some situations where a bigger screen can function without a keyboard, such as watching videos, gaming or acting as a reader or photo viewer, but otherwise, going bigger presents issues with weight and handling, making it more likely to be used like a laptop.  At least that is my take on it.

    I think apple needs a iPad pro that runs os10 and has a i5 or i7. I believe while the surface is a shit device the concept is genius. Its not an iPad competitor but rather a macbook air competitor that has some great selling points.
  • Reply 167 of 186
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by foggyhill View Post

     

     

    Are you even serious?

    - Much much stronger CPU/GPU (the GPU part especially is a monster)

    - Touch ID

    - Bonded screen

    - Less reflective screen

    - Both significantly thinner & Lighter

    - NFC

    -  Much better cameras 8MP main camera + Facetime 1.2MP camera with better low light performance

    - 802.11ac WIFI

    - Cheaper storage options 16G/64G/128G

    - RAM (that's probably the lesser thing they updated)

    - More colour options

     

    - The only regression is 8% less battery time a bit more than 10h instead of a bit over 11h (since 11h was over what they promised the last time or this time (10h), its explainable).

    That's a very significant upgrade within the form factor. What on earth would you want more?

     

    If you use the Ipad only to browse the web and don't lock your phone, obviously you won't see a lot of difference since that doesn't really use : NFC, WIFI, the camera, and the GPU/CPU or need much storage; though it being lighter with a less reflective bonded screen should still matter to you.


     

    Honestly after a while the screen doesn't look that much different than the first Air. And I don't notice that the screen is less reflective. But maybe I'm just looking at it wrong. The NFC in the Air 2 lacks the antennas used in iPhone 6/6 Plus. Its only being used as a secure element for ?Pay in in-app purchases. Yeah Touch ID is great but for me much more of a deal breaker with my phone than the iPad. And I consider that a no brainer.  Everyone and their mother knew the Air 2 would have Touch ID. Sure the device is thinner and lighter but at the cost of slightly worse battery life and sound vibration. I never noticed the sound vibration on my first Air. As far as wifi goes there are many times I have to close out of Safari and go back in to get a webpage to load. Of course that may be an iOS 8 issue but at the end of the day while using the product I'm not noticing considerably faster wifi.

     

    Lets not forget when Cook announced the Air 2 and said what could Apple do to make the best product even better he cuts to a 30 second video showing the iPad getting 18% thinner. I'm sure if you asked most people that question getting thinner wouldn't be at the top of their list.

  • Reply 168 of 186
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by mpantone View Post

     



    Why are you quoting unit sales? It's about revenue and margin.

     

    Great, so Apple was selling 84% of total unit sales as iPods in 2006. Guess what? ASP for an iPod is vastly lower than Macs. Today? iPod ASP is vastly lower than iPhones as well as Macs, plus iPhone gross margin is amazingly high. Moreover, the App Store is now a statistically significant contributor to Apple's revenue stream. You can't buy apps for the iPod product line.

     

    Using unit sales as a comparison metric shows that you don't know squat about Apple's basic financials.

     

    After all these years of reading articles here and dozens of other tech news websites, you still have learned nothing.


     

    I'm quoting unit sales because it shows what most people were buying from Apple in the early to mid 2000s were iPods. Of course that's now been replaced by the more expensive iPhone. Which down the line will probably be replaced like something else. That's my only point. Obviously if the bottom falls out of iPhone it would be much more devastating to Apple than has the bottom fallen out of iPod. But there is absolutely no indication that is going to happen. And I have no doubt that Apple has plenty of things cooking in then labs. Last year Tim Cook told Charlie Rose that Apple was working on stuff that hasn't been rumored about.

  • Reply 169 of 186
    alfiejralfiejr Posts: 1,524member

    over 250 millions iPads have been sold so far, and i bet most are still in use. all can run iOS 8 except for the original iPad and there were only about 15 million of those. so the rest are "good enough" for someone in the family to use. the one compelling difference worth upgrading for is the 1.5 lb weight of the iPads before iPad Air arrived at just 1.0 lb, making it much easier to hold. all the other newer features like Touch ID and better cameras and displays are nice but not as important as they are for iPhones.

     

    so ... owners of older iPads won't really have to upgrade to new ones until they no longer get iOS updates and key new features that come with them. so i wouldn't be surprised if iOS 9 supports only the iPad Airs and also drops the first generation Mini. that would begin to push overall consumer sales back up starting in 2016.

     

    the quesiton for 2015 the analyst ignores is how much headway the iPad makes in enterprise sales this year, where there are huge untapped potential markets. that's the wildcard.

  • Reply 170 of 186
    relicrelic Posts: 4,735member
    wisdomseed wrote: »
    The take off would be if they offered it as a laptop and not simply an iPad. I have used touch screen laptops and generally speaking they suck. But an Apple laptop with a touch interface would be so much better. Maybe that is where a 12.9 inch screen would be the business because you could easily match it with a full sized keyboard in the case instead of those wrong sized smaller ones. But then lower sales isn't the worst thing. I, like may others prefer the iPad to other devices, that is computer and phones. Its cool to have little things but as you get older, like I am, the iPad is still the primary go to device. The only problem is that it costs so much, it isn't fiscally responsible to upgrade every year or even every other year.

    I find the exact opposite to be true when using my touchscreen laptop, ThinkPad Yogo S240, 12.5", i7, 16GB, 512GB SSD. I wanted a computer that I could disable the EFI and use with Solaris. It also has a Wacom Stylus that is increasingly becoming the most useful feature on it. In fact I'm so hooked on touch enabled devices that I'm done buying laptops that don't have it. Since the ThinkPad Yoga also runs OSX like it was specifically designed for it I have permanently retired my MacBook Air. I just waited to long for Apple to upgrade at least the resolution of the Air 11", yes the ThinkPad is a little larger but the features and battery life more than make up for it. I was getting about 3 hours with the Air, the Yoga, 7 easily not to mention the beautiful 500 Nit 1080p dislay. No, I don't care about Retina, Linux still has issues with desktop DPI, so Retina displays look way too tiny to be useful.

    My new Mac Pro on the other hand is an amazing machine so I don't miss having a Apple laptop, especially when I personally think that the ThinkPad makes a better OSX machine for me anyway.
  • Reply 171 of 186
    sog35 wrote: »
    This is the same clown that said the iPhone6+ would be delayed till 2015

    Same clown who said the iWatch was coming out in Dec2014

    Clown also said a new AppleTv was coming out in Nov2014

    http://appleinsider.com/articles/14/07/13/analyst-ming-chi-kuo-apples-55-inch-iphone-6-faces-production-issues-launch-may-be-pushed-to-2015

    Same clown that said Large iPad was coming out in 2nd Qtr 2015. Oh but now he's saying it isn't.

    http://news.investors.com/technology-click/012015-735320-aapl-stock-up-ahead-of-fiscal-q1-earnings.htm

    Clown said iWatch was coming out in 3rd Qtr 2014
    Clown said there would be a budget iMac in Mar2014
    Clown said iPadAir2 was coming in August2014

    Clown said new AppleTV in 2014 with a full App Store and motion sensor.

    http://www.macrumors.com/2014/04/09/apple-2014-product-roadmap/

    here master ming said the iPhone5S was coming out in June. LOL
    Also Clown said iPhone 5C was going to cost $350 unlocked. LLOLLLOLOLLLOLL!!!!

    http://www.macrumors.com/2013/03/04/new-iphones-still-expected-to-launch-in-junejuly-fingerprint-sensor-for-iphone-5s/

    Basically this clown says a TON of stuff and a TON of contradictory stuff.  So eventually he gets some stuff 'right'
  • Reply 172 of 186
    But the human mind tends to latch on to the one or two things where he was close, even in this article with his last sales estimate, then give him way too much credit. I've been waiting for someone to research his misses and post them, thank you.
  • Reply 173 of 186

    Pretty clear this "insider" ain't one and is just guessing based on his personal bias. He seems to like predicting doom, gloom, delays and problems for Apple.  Meanwhile, I can't remember the last time Apple had any kind of problem that lasted more than about 24 hours.  Most of the so-called "Apple problems" in the headlines seem to be malicious pranks played by their enemies, like "Bendgate" which turned out to be a total scam but actually took the stock down 3%, which could have been the purpose of the prank.

     

    There is a cottage industry out there in putting out bearish negative stories about Apple. Much of it might have started with Samsung when they went after Apple after Jobs died, as is proven in court document internal emails.  Samsung sent a lot of money paying off writers of various kinds to put out misleading stories.  That may be over though as Samsung has completely failed now in the premium cel phone market and may not even survive another year as even a wannabe competitor of Apple's.  

     

    So what this proves is that false negative stories may have short term kneejerk affects day trader types can take advantage of but the real life excellence and fortress-strong excellence and popularity of Apple products wins out very quickly thereafter. In fact as an investor I bought more AAPL stock on the Bendgate dip, so thank you pranksters for putting out that lie.

     

    Other liars about Apple are certain stock analysts who put out nonsensical downgrades of the stock for no rational reason. These have included some top firms too, like Wells Fargo, Citi, Nomura and Jeffries.   No idea why they do this when it is so obvious Apple is firing on all cylinders and the stock is so undervalued, but I guess everyone has a right to an opinion.  

     

    As for the iPad, dont worry about it.   We all understand why sales are slowing and it has more to do with the popularity of Macs and large iPhones than anything else, which is a plus for Apple, not a negative. That and the well documented fact that there is seldom any need to upgrade your iPad.

  • Reply 174 of 186
    foggyhillfoggyhill Posts: 4,767member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

     

     

    Honestly after a while the screen doesn't look that much different than the first Air. And I don't notice that the screen is less reflective. But maybe I'm just looking at it wrong. The NFC in the Air 2 lacks the antennas used in iPhone 6/6 Plus. Its only being used as a secure element for ?Pay in in-app purchases. Yeah Touch ID is great but for me much more of a deal breaker with my phone than the iPad. And I consider that a no brainer.  Everyone and their mother knew the Air 2 would have Touch ID. Sure the device is thinner and lighter but at the cost of slightly worse battery life and sound vibration. I never noticed the sound vibration on my first Air. As far as wifi goes there are many times I have to close out of Safari and go back in to get a webpage to load. Of course that may be an iOS 8 issue but at the end of the day while using the product I'm not noticing considerably faster wifi.

     

    Lets not forget when Cook announced the Air 2 and said what could Apple do to make the best product even better he cuts to a 30 second video showing the iPad getting 18% thinner. I'm sure if you asked most people that question getting thinner wouldn't be at the top of their list.


     

    - Forgot the upgrade to the touch detector under the glass which is now more responsive, ridiculously more than Android tablets (and any other Apple tablets).

     

    So, an upgrade that you dont find interesting discounting even things that are key buying points for tablets used for media consumption and basic communication. Go back to a Ipad Air, or use them side by side, and see if there is truly no difference with the Air 2.

     -, Weight, improvements

      - Much better screen (because of bonding and less reflectivity), mostly useful when reading, especially outside. This is particularly good if your vision is not very good even when corrected (like mine), or you look at the screen many hours a day.

      - Cheaper storage

      - More responsive screen

      - Better Facetime camera

     

    - In a family, wireless multi data stream setting (not alone at home), those improvements also come in play

      (If you are alone at home this matters less)

      - Touch ID

      - 802.11ac

     

    - These improvements are more future proofing the device, or specific to certain tablet usage

       - GPU update

       - NFC

     

    - The only Improvements I think are superfleous

       - The 8MP Camera

  • Reply 175 of 186
    nikon133nikon133 Posts: 2,600member
    huffcw wrote: »
    I agree. A 12" iPad that can dock or connect to a keyboard/trackpad accessory and automatically switch to OS X would have me very interested in purchasing this new device. Avoiding the need to carry two devices would be a huge benefit -- having all the benefits of iOS and OS X together in one streamlined package. 

    I am sure the computing power would be limited to some degree, but it wouldn't be a problem for many as long as it is powerful enough to handle common tasks. <span style="line-height:1.4em;">Not sure how they would handle the fact that iOS runs on ARM and OS X on Intel -- but I'm sure there's a way they could make it work. </span>

    Apologies if someone already covered same ideas... didn't have time to read through all posts.

    I think that, within limits imposed by iOS, iPads have reached hardware maturity where people really don't have much reason to quickly upgrade, unless because of enthusiasm or rare niche scenarios (like hardcore gaming).

    I know quite a few guys who are still running iPad 2... and not planning to upgrade it for as long as it runs. Same with people with iPad 4 or 1st gen iPad Air. I'm not mentioning iPad 3 because I don't know anyone with it, strangely.

    Pumping more capable hardware does not help if software imposes limits. People must be given new, more advanced ways of using tablets in order to go for new hardware. The way tablets were perceived (and used) by most simply does not benefit much from further hardware progress. In a way, tablets are following desktop/laptop PC scenario, only it took much less time to get there.

    Larger iPad might give temporary boost, but eventually - I believe - it will take Apple to "Surface" iPad in order to keep momentum long run. Not necessarily put desktop OS on tablet, but add desktop features to iOS - more substantial multitasking, proper user-side file system, better network-ability... also release hardware to support new functionality. As someone already mentioned, dock with DP/USB/LAN/... ports, capable of turning iPad into small PC... can't say for the others, but I can say that I would be looking into getting rid of my old ThinkPad Tablet 2 and replacing it with such iPad.
  • Reply 176 of 186
    foggyhillfoggyhill Posts: 4,767member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by nikon133 View Post





    Apologies if someone already covered same ideas... didn't have time to read through all posts.



    I think that, within limits imposed by iOS, iPads have reached hardware maturity where people really don't have much reason to quickly upgrade, unless because of enthusiasm or rare niche scenarios (like hardcore gaming).



    I know quite a few guys who are still running iPad 2... and not planning to upgrade it for as long as it runs. Same with people with iPad 4 or 1st gen iPad Air. I'm not mentioning iPad 3 because I don't know anyone with it, strangely.



    Pumping more capable hardware does not help if software imposes limits. People must be given new, more advanced ways of using tablets in order to go for new hardware. The way tablets were perceived (and used) by most simply does not benefit much from further hardware progress. In a way, tablets are following desktop/laptop PC scenario, only it took much less time to get there.



    Larger iPad might give temporary boost, but eventually - I believe - it will take Apple to "Surface" iPad in order to keep momentum long run. Not necessarily put desktop OS on tablet, but add desktop features to iOS - more substantial multitasking, proper user-side file system, better network-ability... also release hardware to support new functionality. As someone already mentioned, dock with DP/USB/LAN/... ports, capable of turning iPad into small PC... can't say for the others, but I can say that I would be looking into getting rid of my old ThinkPad Tablet 2 and replacing it with such iPad.

     

    The problem with that "supposed" replacement is that Surface, and are their ilk, are massively lower seller than the current Ipad. So, if indeed they had something so much better to offer, you'd think this would be reflected in actual sales!

  • Reply 177 of 186
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    sog35 wrote: »
    Your mistake is you are comparing the Air1 to the Air2.  No one expects people to upgrade each year.  You need to compare the Air2 to the iPad3/4.  The gap between those devices are massive and there is dozens of reasons to upgrade.  Most important is the much faster CPU, much lighter design, and touchID.

    They are certainly more massive, but the iPad Air 2 is major YoY upgrade for an iPad. Perhaps the only one that could be seen as more is the iPad 2 to iPad 3 because it went Retina, and 4x more pixels did go a long way to making a better user experience, which is probably why so many are still happy with the Retina iPad they first got.
  • Reply 178 of 186
    jfc1138jfc1138 Posts: 3,090member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by pazuzu View Post





    Tablets are a fad. People realize they are good basically for viewing.



    What do you think the vast majority of computers in consumer hands are used for?

     

    Viewing.

  • Reply 179 of 186
    jfc1138 wrote: »
    What do you think the vast majority of computers in consumer hands are used for?

    Viewing.

    Exactly.

    Also... in the old days everyone used the same type of machine to do any sort of internet or computing tasks. Whether you're a grandma checking email... or a guy doing 3D modelling... you used a "personal computer"

    The computer was the only device available that could do any of those tasks. So everybody had one. Granted the 3D guy was using a much faster machine... but the type of machine is the same.

    Fast forward a couple decades... and we've got smartphones and tablets. Suddenly... consumers don't "need" a personal computer to do those simple tasks anymore.

    The only reason Grandma had a personal computer was because it was the only thing available at the time.

    But now she can check her email... look at Facebook... play games... all with a tablet that is thin and light and MUCH simpler to operate.

    So yes... I think most consumers are just viewing content... and a tablet can perform those tasks wonderfully.

    The 3D guy still needs a very powerful workstation... but the average consumer doesn't.
  • Reply 180 of 186
    mj webmj web Posts: 918member
    I concur with Kuo. Just about everyone who wants an iPad has an iPad -- including me! And I don't envision replacing it anytime soon. I get much more function out of my MB Air, preferring OS X and its full blown apps to IOS's walled garden and neutered apps. Apple is on the right track with IBM in rebranding iPads to the enterprise. And I believe iPad's role is underutilized as a retail Kiosk, especially in light of Apple Pay. But for consumers like myself, iPads are kinda meh.
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