Android Wear stumbles out of the gate with just 720K units shipped in 2014

15791011

Comments

  • Reply 121 of 201
    Originally Posted by robbyx View Post

    I can read just fine.


     

    Apparently not. When you feel like trying again, I’d love to reply.

  • Reply 122 of 201
    robbyxrobbyx Posts: 479member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

     

     

    Apparently not. When you feel like trying again, I’d love to reply.


     

    How about you answer my questions?  So Beats is OK but Pandora is not on your Apple TV?  Yes or no?  If yes, why isn't Pandora allowed?  Furthermore, saying that an App Store is "stupid" and therefore not viable is hardly a reason.  Give me some actual REASONS that an App Store on Apple TV makes no sense.

  • Reply 123 of 201
    I know we're waaaaay off-topic here talking about AppleTV in a smartwatch thread.... but I gotta jump in.

    Apple has an MFI program for game controllers... the App Store with infrastructure already in place... and thousands of eager developers.

    Why couldn't AppleTV become a game console?

    Sure... it wouldn't have the same titles you'd find on XBox and Playstation... but people are happy playing games on Apple devices... games that don't appear anywhere else. There's definitely a market there.

    I know "Apple" and "gaming" don't usually go together... but check out the money being spent on iPhone/iPad games. Why not extend that to the big screen in the living room or bedroom?
  • Reply 124 of 201
    robbyxrobbyx Posts: 479member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Michael Scrip View Post



    I know we're waaaaay off-topic here talking about AppleTV in a smartwatch thread.... but I gotta jump in.



    Apple has an MFI program for game controllers... the App Store with infrastructure already in place... and thousands of eager developers.



    Why couldn't AppleTV become a game console?



    Sure... it wouldn't have the same titles you'd find on XBox and Playstation... but people are happy playing games on Apple devices... games that don't appear anywhere else. There's definitely a market there.



    I know "Apple" and "gaming" don't usually go together... but check out the money being spent on iPhone/iPad games. Why not extend that to the big screen in the living room or bedroom?



    Sorry, the Apple TV hijack is my fault.  But I'm headed to bed and bowing out.  So get back to talking about the Watch!

     

    And I agree with just about everything you said.  I can't for the life of me figure out why Apple still refuses to open Apple TV up and offer an App Store, which will mostly be games.  The only point of disagreement...I think you might very well find many Xbox and PS games making their way to Apple TV.  If the hardware is adequate and the market is huge, why wouldn't a game publisher release on every possible platform?  Of course, the platform exclusive games would never make it to Apple TV...which is why I think Apple needs to buy Nintendo and bring all of the Nintendo franchises to iOS exclusively.  

  • Reply 125 of 201
    nairbnairb Posts: 253member

    Just goes to show that watches are out. I haven't worn one since I stopped doing triathlons in 1992. None of my friends wears one except for sport, and then they need a water-resistant one (not splash resistant like the smart watches are). Finished sport, watch comes off. 

     

    My grandad still wears a watch, as do most people in his bowling club.

     

    There are millions of apple fans out there who will buy anything apple (something that android does not have) but outside of these groups, and maybe special health groups if monitoring takes off) I can not see much market for a smart watch, no matter how good it is. When it says, water-resistant to 10 meters, then you sill see sports people starting to buy it.

  • Reply 126 of 201
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

     

    I bet that more than 720K buttplugs were sold in 2014...


     

    Shh. Don't give Jony ideas.

  • Reply 127 of 201
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by robbyx View Post

     

    I'm not the only one who doesn't see a need for wearables......


     

    You make a decent point, but it's based on "today-thinking".   In the late 1800s there would have been plenty of predictions about how poorly a loud, smelly, maintenance-needing, fuel-needing, hard to operate, "horseless carriage", would sell.

     

    I think the Apple Watch is part of a technological trend (unlike all other watches/smartwatches) that can't be stopped.

     

    Apple talked about how personal the device is, and how it's part of a natural progression:

     

    1 Mainframe

    2 Personal Computer

    3 Laptop

    4 Phone

    5 Smartphone

    6 Wearable

    7

    8

    9

    10

    .......

    19

    20 Electronics in our brain.

     

    Unlike all other watches and smartwatches, which AREN'T on this trajectory, Apple is creating something entirely new.

     

    It can't be compared to today's wearables.  It's a personal-assistant/intimate-communicator. 

    Today's crap-tastic "smartwatches" that can show a TXT are locked in yesteryear's concepts.

     

    It doesn't matter if someone today "wears a watch".  It's not a watch. 

     

    We've seen articles about how indispensable people's smartphones are ("I'd rather have my X stolen than my phone").  What about a device that sends/receives heartbeats with my spouse, and "countless other unnamed personal innovations from developers". 

    All of which is ON MY BODY all the time?

     

    Exaggeration alert:  Won't we soon start being bitter that we have to drag the boat-anchor phone around in our pockets to support the watch?  (follow-up:  by then the watch won't need the phone).

     

    Personal indeed.

  • Reply 128 of 201
    I remember not that long ago seeing AI members poo pooing the Note as being a niche product for selling only 5 million in a quarter (I seem to recall sog35 being one of the people denigrating the Note for selling such low numbers).

    At least now I know that things have changed and selling 2.5 million per quarter is no longer niche and is now considered a massive amount.

    Yes, because selling 5million in the biggest market in Tech history is exactly the same as selling 5million in a market that is currently little more than niche with the market leader a product and company that started as a Kickstarter.
  • Reply 129 of 201
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by addicted44 View Post





    Yes, because selling 5million in the biggest market in Tech history is exactly the same as selling 5million in a market that is currently little more than niche with the market leader a product and company that started as a Kickstarter.

     

    Doesn't matter... niche is niche.

     

    By the way... the 3.5" iPhone 4 was only selling between 13-14 million at the time of the first Note. Anything over 5" was not considered to be a big market... so it wasn't the "biggest market in tech history".

  • Reply 130 of 201
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

    check your history holmes.  I wasn't even here when the iPhone4 came out.  I started when the iPhone5 was out.  So yes, selling 5 million smartphones in 2013 was niche.


     

    That's what I said... anything in that range is considered a niche product.

  • Reply 131 of 201
    jmc54jmc54 Posts: 207member
    :DQuote:

    Originally Posted by formosa View Post

     

    Maybe Samsung can squeeze out two more generations of Gear before the AppleWatch is shipped.




    I'm sure they'll squeeze out something!

  • Reply 132 of 201
    pazuzupazuzu Posts: 1,728member
    sog35 wrote: »

    I upped my bet to 15,000,000 units.

    Are you in or not?

    15,000,000 would be the fastest selling Apple product EVER.  Faster than iPod ( a few million) faster than iPhone (7 million) faster than iPad (14.3 million).

    So if you REALLY think the Watch is such a crap product there is NO WAY it becomes the fastest selling Apple product EVER!!! Right?  Right!!!

    Make the bet or else your words are just hot air.

    It's only faster selling because it would include more buyers- China. Are you daft?
  • Reply 133 of 201
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by pazuzu View Post





    It's only faster selling because it would include more buyers- China. Are you daft?

     

    Just take the bet. It's not like losing will affect your standing on AI. lol

     

    (even though I agree that the goalposts have been changed... but that's not what the bet is about)

  • Reply 134 of 201
    (even though I agree that the goalposts have been changed... but that's not what the bet is about)

    He moved the values against himself, and by 50%. He's moved it beyond the iPad's first 4 quarters of unit sales and it's an accessory device for an iPhone 5 and newer.

    [@]sog35[/@] is being extremely giving in this bet and saying that sales in other countries don't count because they weren't on the original iPad list is like saying the US doesn't count because there are now more people in the US now, Apple has more mindshare, and we're no longer in the same recession thereby making sales higher. That's all BS! This is simple supply and demand economics and logistics of distribution.
  • Reply 135 of 201
    brucemcbrucemc Posts: 1,541member

    Well this thread has certainly been useful in getting some predictions out.  We have now seen that @pazuzu is adamant that the ?Watch will be a spectacular failure, but won't take up an "extremely generous" bet by @sog35 regarding 15M units sold in 12 months (ohhh...not if it includes China...they might buy it...).  Even 10M sold would be very successful by any normal person's definition of a first gen product (itself an accessory) in a very immature market (I am already on record with the 10M definition of success - double the "smart" wrist wearable market of 2014).  So we now can disregard anything that pazuzu says, as he hasn't got the balls to backup any of his numerous negative claims.

     

    Then there is the @island hermit who seems like he will take the bet at 15M (but not 10M - again not with China...), but seems to be hung up on comparing the Note sales (first of a phablet device into a healthy smart phone market) to that of what Apple Watch might to into a very new/immature market as an accessory.  He seems to be trying to shift the goal posts of success, while accusing others of it.  By the way, I do consider the initial Note sales to be a strong success for Samsung, as would most.

     

    BTW, from what I could find in a search, the first Samsung Note sold 10M units in its first 10 months on the market (not quite 5M per quarter).

    http://www.talkandroid.com/127404-samsung-10-million-galaxy-notes-sold-worldwide/

     

    Now we only need to get some predictions from the other prominent Apple doom-sayers.

  • Reply 136 of 201
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by brucemc View Post

     

    Then there is the @island hermit who seems like he will take the bet at 15M (but not 10M - again not with China...), but seems to be hung up on comparing the Note sales (first of a phablet device into a healthy smart phone market) to that of what Apple Watch might to into a very new/immature market as an accessory.  He seems to be trying to shift the goal posts of success, while accusing others of it.  By the way, I do consider the initial Note sales to be a strong success for Samsung, as would most.

     

    Now we only need to get some predictions from the other prominent Apple doom-sayers.


     

    You're making assumptions.

     

    The Note took somewhere in the neighbourhood of 12-15% of smartphone sales at the time. smartphones were healthy but not that healthy. Feature phones were by far the dominant phone at the time. The Note was quite a strange bird. The iPhone 4 was 3.5" and the Note was 5.3". Many people on here laughed at first quarter sales of 5 million. Considered the number "small" and insignificant. Understand... it had nothing to do with comparison to the overall market. 5 million seemed to be thought of as a small number in today's electronics market... that includes a lot of devices besides smartphones.

     

    My comment was to say that NOW it seems that 2.5 million sales per quarter of a device are considered "Massive"... and this into a much larger marketplace than when the Note was introduced.

     

    Regarding goalposts... first it was just "massive" sales of a product... "best" of any Apple introduction... and then, as you pointed out as well, it has become a comparison of an "accessories" market and an "immature" market. In other words, you shrunk the market to make the sales look larger. By the time the Apple Watch goes on sale, I'm not sure which market will have the largest set of potential buyers... the Note or the Apple Watch... it's all relative. Different year... different set of buyers. That "accessory" will probably have over 300 million potential buyers when it goes on sale. That's a huge market to only get 10-15 million buyers.

     

    Doom sayer?  Hahahahahahahahaha

  • Reply 137 of 201
    [quote name="island hermit" url="/t/184761/android-wear-stumbles-out-of-the-gate-with-just-720k-units-shipped-in-2014/120#post_2675103"]The Note took somewhere in the neighbourhood of 12-15% of smartphone sales at the time. smartphones were healthy but not that healthy.[/QUOTE]

    I have no reason not to believe you but the numbers seem dubious for less than 3.5 years ago when the first Galaxy Note launched in October 2011. That's when the iPhone 4S launched. Note that the iPhone 4 was already on Verizon at that time and they sold over 4 million iPhone 4S's in the first 3 days.

    [QUOTE]Feature phones were by far the dominant phone at the time.[/QUOTE]

    Months before the iPhone 4S and Galaxy Note launched Neilsen stated that smartphones had finally overtaken dumb phones for new device purchases.

    [LIST][*] http://venturebeat.com/2011/06/30/nielsen-smartphones-finally-overtake-feature-phones-for-new-device-purchases/
    [/LIST]

    And less than 2 years later there are plenty of other independent reports of smartphones overtaking dumb phones in 2013. I doubt I'd say anything is "by far the dominate phone"-type based on those numbers.
  • Reply 138 of 201
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismY View Post





    I have no reason not to believe you but the numbers seem dubious for less than 3.5 years ago when the first Galaxy Note launched in October 2011. That's when the iPhone 4S launched. Note that the iPhone 4 was already on Verizon at that time and they sold over 4 million iPhone 4S's in the first 3 days.

    Months before the iPhone 4S and Galaxy Note launched Neilsen stated that smartphones had finally overtaken dumb phones for new device purchases.
    And less than 2 years later there are plenty of other independent reports of smartphones overtaking dumb phones in 2013. I doubt I'd say anything is "by far the dominate phone"-type based on those numbers.

     

    Whoops... I thought the debut for the first Note was in January of 2011.

     

    Okay... move it down to 7-8%.

  • Reply 139 of 201
    I think there are far too many unknowns to make any guesses at this time, but I would think even 10 million would be impressive for an iPhone accessory device that starts at $350; and that's before considering the other unusual aspects of this product category.

    I have yet to make a decision as to buying the ?Watch or the Fitbit Charge HR, and I won't make that determination until they update their info, which I expext will happen with their next event for ?Watch right before pre-orders happen. There are several features that will make it a shoe-in if they are included.
  • Reply 140 of 201
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SolipsismY View Post



    I think there are far too many unknowns to make any guesses at this time, but I would think even 10 million would be impressive for an iPhone accessory device that starts at $350; and that's before considering the other unusual aspects of this product category.



    I have yet to make a decision as to buying the ?Watch or the Fitbit Charge HR, and I won't make that determination until they update their info, which I expext will happen with their next event for ?Watch right before pre-orders happen. There are several features that will make it a shoe-in if they are included.

     

    Hell, 5 million would be impressive, if it wasn't Apple. I only say that because Tim Cook has already said that he doesn't believe in the law of large numbers (har... you're a funny guy, Tim)... or, what he meant to say... that Apple will continue to grow at a good clip.

     

    How many people believe that Apple will sell 85 million iPhones next holiday quarter or 60 million iPhones in the following quarter 2016? If either of those numbers actually shrink from the year before, Q1 & Q2 2015, then the Apple Watch will have to sell more than 5 or 10 million units to see Apple grow at a good clip... unless, of course, iPad sales all pick up.

     

    ... and, please, none of this Apple is doomed horseshit (not directed at you S).

Sign In or Register to comment.