German investment firm Berenberg predicts doom for Apple, sets price target of $60

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Comments

  • Reply 41 of 94
    flaneur wrote: »
    Here's a story about Ahmad by PED from 2012.

    http://fortune.com/2012/10/29/apple-from-a-tech-titan-into-a-dinosaur-but-not-for-a-year/

    This analyst has been at it for awhile. I'm thinking that there's an anti-corporate, anti-high-price and profit climate of opinion that is peculiar to Germany and some other areas of Europe.

    The rationale: they aren't as impressed by high quality per se, being more accustomed to it as part of the consumer environment. The US, in contrast, has been starved for high quality for its own sake for many decades.

    That guy's boss should immediately fire him.
  • Reply 42 of 94
    jbdragonjbdragon Posts: 2,305member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by macinthe408 View Post



    This is useless without a timeline. When he's wrong for the next 50 years, and right on the 51st he can then say, "See, I told you I was right."



    To quote Chuck Palahniuk (Fight Club): %u201COn a long enough time line, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.%u201D

     

    As they say, a broken clock is still right twice a day!  More doom and gloom for Apple, oh now.  Now it the time to buy more stock and Apple will shoot up even more.  Will they ever learn?  So many people just don't get Apple.  Doesn't fit the normal business model for them.  Maybe they're trying to get stock prices to drop low and buy so that it'll jump back up and they can make millions?

  • Reply 43 of 94
    jbdragon wrote: »
    As they say, a broken clock is still right twice a day!  More doom and gloom for Apple, oh now.  Now it the time to buy more stock and Apple will shoot up even more.  Will they ever learn?  So many people just don't get Apple.  Doesn't fit the normal business model for them.  Maybe they're trying to get stock prices to drop low and buy so that it'll jump back up and they can make millions?

    The thing is this guy is the kind of broken clock that has the hands spinning backward at 10x speed.
  • Reply 44 of 94
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,718member
    hngfr wrote: »
    Maybe he knows about another stock split ?
    /s

    That was my initial reaction ...but without the /s being needed .. LOL
  • Reply 45 of 94
    zoetmbzoetmb Posts: 2,654member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jd_in_sb View Post



    This is like being bearish on Gillette because they are too dependent on razors.



    Actually, Gillette and Schick are in a bit of trouble because the upstart razor blade subscription companies, like Dollar Shave Club, which offers blades at a far cheaper price, are starting to do quite well and causing severe disruption in the market, although the traditional razor blade companies are fighting back by offering their own subscription models. 

     

    But there's no Apple analogy there.    

     

    I think there is some merit to an analysis that says that iPhone sales in saturated markets will eventually slow, although certainly not in the short term.   As there's fewer radically new features in each year's new model and as Verizon, AT&T, Sprint, etc., back away from subsidizing phones, there will be an inevitable slowdown in existing markets, although Apple has plenty of growth left in new markets.   But at the same time, over time Apple always seems to improve its manufacturing efficiency, so profits may not erode much at all.  

     

    We've seen slowdowns in Macs, iPods and iPads.   But I think Apple already understands this and will pursue new markets, such as the watch (even though those sales will never match phone sales) and the rumored car (although I don't happen to believe that one). 

     

    Personally, as I've posted before, in 15 years I think Apple is going to be primarily an A.I. and robotics company and almost unrecognizable compared to the company it is today.   And with all the experience they've been getting building solar facilities for their server farms that they've been building - who knows - Apple might become an energy company.           

     

    While many companies have eventually lost their way, I think betting against Apple is quite foolish.   

     

    As I've posted before:

    Quote:

    John C. Dvorak, 1984:?

    "The Macintosh uses an experimental pointing device called a ?'mouse'. There is no evidence that people want to use these things. I? don’t want one of these new fangled devices."

     

    The Economist, Feb 1995:?

    "[Apple] seems to have two options. The first is to break itself up, ?selling the hardware side. The second is to sell the company outright."

     

    former Apple VP Gaston Bastiaens, Jan 1996

    ?"Within the next two months, Sony will acquire Apple. … Sony will be the white knight who will step into the picture."

     

    Michael Dell, October 1997:?

    "I'd shut [Apple] down and give the money back to the shareholders."

     

    Hiawatha Bray, Boston Globe, 1998: ?

    "The iMac will only sell to some of the true believers. The iMac doesn’t include a floppy disk drive for doing file backups or sharing of data. ... The iMac will fail. "

     

    Michael S. Malone 10/5/2000: ?"Apple R.I.P."

    Nevertheless, the bloom is off the rose. The incredible run-up Apple stock has enjoyed since Steve's return is over, and the sheen of success that had enveloped the company has been tarnished.



    A temporary setback? Don't be too sure. Unlike, say, Hewlett-Packard, Apple has always been a company that deals poorly with failure. When things go bad at Apple, they go very bad.



    Steve Jobs can't run companies, but he has proven that he is a genius at motivating teams of people to produce extraordinary products. In fact, he may be the greatest project team leader in the history of high tech. That is no small achievement. But it does not translate to being the CEO of a giant corporation.

     

    Cliff Edwards 5/21/2001:

    ?"Commentary: Sorry, Steve: Here's Why Apple Stores Won't Work -- New retail outlets aren't going to fix Apple's sales"

     

    Bill Ray (Mobile) 12/23/2006: ?

    "Why the Apple phone will fail and fail badly"

     

    Matthew Lynn 1/14/2007: ?

    "Apple iPhone Will Fail in a Late, Defensive Move

     

    John Dvorak 3/28/2007:?

    "Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone. Commentary: Company risks its reputation in competitive business."

     

    Christopher Versace (Fortune) 11/6/2012:?

    "The Trouble with Apple's iPad Mini"

     


  • Reply 46 of 94
    If share investors base their investments on this type of extreme info (prone to subjective opinions with bias in both directions) then no wonder the world economy is so volatile and frequently clashes. Maybe it would be better for investors to pay no attention to such nonsense and make their own opinions based on what is actually happening rather than a few people's flights of fancy.
  • Reply 47 of 94
    BMW is too reliant on only selling cars, therefore I think the stock price should be $1.
  • Reply 48 of 94
    These guys are right: Apple is a flash in the pan, one trick pony. The iPhone 6 screen can't get any bigger: it must be a dead man walking. iPad has been "beaten" by white box android tablets in the all-important numbers game. iTunes sales are down. App Store breaking even. AppleTV stagnant specs. MacBook Air still not retina. Mac Pro stale. Apple Watch is late and too expensive and requires an iPhone. Apple Pay is "loosing". Apple Maps still sucks. And Apple keeps spending money on magic solar farms and bankrupt sapphire factories, because Timid Timmy is too scared to fire anybody. /s

    Sound familiar?
  • Reply 49 of 94
    clemynxclemynx Posts: 1,552member
    No need to claim to be an analyst to know that growth will eventually stop. Apple can't possibly sell more phones every year. But then I fail to see why or how would sales suddenly drop...
    Economists and bankers are the worst. People who believe that having followed a course on 'economic science' makes them specialist on everything. Economy is a pseudo science.
  • Reply 50 of 94

    The law of large numbers has to do with statistical sampling, not with determining company fundamentals. It says that as you increase your sample size you're more likely to get a "true" value. It has nothing to do with stock pricing. Or company earnings, growth, etc. It doesn't mean that as a company grows, that incremental growth becomes more difficult. Frankly, it's irrelevant for predicting what a company's fundamentals will look like at any period in the future.

  • Reply 51 of 94
    what's the german word for clueless?
  • Reply 52 of 94
    Apple continues to be misunderstood by many investors. That's why Apple performs the way they do. They don't follow the norm. They're too disciplined. You could have said the same about the iPod. The roughly 7 year cycle.

    As side note, why do you think Apple sits on so much cash and is buying back stock. IMHO, they want to control their destiny - not leave it to analysts like this one.

    Remind me to never leave my money with Berenberg'.
  • Reply 53 of 94
    radarthekatradarthekat Posts: 3,842moderator

    Apple's cash per share will reach $60 before its stock price ever would.  

     

    On the too-heavily-dependent-on-one-product theme, couldn't the same be said of, oh, say... Tesla?  Or BMW? Or U.S. Steel? Or... (you get my point).

     

    Better than the other end of the spectrum, where something like Amazon is too heavily dependent upon 60 million products, few of which provide them any significant profit margin.  

     

    Sheesh, these folks call themselves analysts.  

  • Reply 54 of 94
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by woodycurmudgeon View Post



    I want some of whatever they are smoking in Germany.

    ROFLMAO

    :smokey:

  • Reply 55 of 94
    xixoxixo Posts: 450member

    "Fisher Says Prices of Stocks Are Low,” said a headline in the New York Times on October 22, 1929, referring to economist Irving Fisher. Two days later, the stock market crashed, and by the end of November the New York Stock Exchange was down 30% from its peak.

     

    Fisher had based his statement on strong earnings reports, few industrial disputes, and evidence of high investment in research and development (R&D).

     

    Sometimes the conventional wisdom will pull the rug out from under your feet...

  • Reply 56 of 94
    Wow.

    Talk about losing credibility.

    These guys just took a personal vendetta into their profession.

    I can see their own business going down the tubes with practices like that.

    Best case scenario is it was a rogue analyst who was getting fired already or something along those lines.

    But not likely.

    Funny how thre folks forget how successful the Mac itself is. The iPad as well. In addition to the iPhone.

    And the market always varies. That's shy Apole does well to have the lineup they have.

    Now adding s watch. Another thing these guys are playing ignorant about.

    Sure these guys made headlines. But not in a good way.
  • Reply 57 of 94
    linkmanlinkman Posts: 1,035member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by telliott5 View Post



    BMW is too reliant on only selling cars, therefore I think the stock price should be $1.

    Yeah, something like 95%+ on the automobile/motorcycle industry with related financial services and only a profit margin of around 24%. 112 euros/share is ready to crash.

  • Reply 58 of 94
    xixoxixo Posts: 450member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ClemyNX View Post



    ... I fail to see why or how would sales suddenly drop...

     

    This, happening in a more populated region:

    image

     

    or this:

    image

  • Reply 59 of 94
    brucemcbrucemc Posts: 1,541member

    The guy/firm is most likely doing it for free publicity/advertising/awareness.  A controversial Apple story is the best way to get clicks these days.  Not sure what the upside is for them - I guess they hope potential investors will remember their name, but not their stupid forecast.

  • Reply 60 of 94
    pdq2pdq2 Posts: 270member

    Y'know, I think some days, Fandroids (or anti-Apple folks) just pop a bolt.

     

    ...or maybe being wrong about "sell, Sell, SELL!"-ing Apple in the past, he's just doubling down on his bad bet.

     

    ...or maybe this guy is not finding satisfaction in his current employment. I mean, how much fun can it be when the company you badmouth just keeps blowing past everyone else in virtually every metric?

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