Piper Jaffray pegs stainless steel Apple Watch price at $499, Edition at $4,999

Posted:
in Future Apple Hardware edited July 2015
Investment firm Piper Jaffray issued a report on Monday breaking down expected Apple Watch average selling prices, saying an aggregate of consumers will likely spend closer to $550 on the device, considering case and internal storage options.



Building off Apple's quoted starting price of $349, analyst Gene Munster anticipates combined Apple Watch ASPs to fall closer to $550, or $575 to $600 including additional bands.

Apple Watch will come in three separate price tiers -- Apple Watch Sport, Apple Watch and Apple Watch Edition -- each series including two display sizes and a variety of strap choices.

Starting with Apple Watch Sport, the aluminum and glass version widely thought to be the least expensive model, Munster expects an ASP of $450 after factoring in configuration alternatives like case and internal storage options.

The stainless steel Apple Watch model, which also features a more expensive sapphire glass cover, is expected to start at $499 to $549, again depending on customizable features. Munster sees an overall ASP at around $650 for the mid-tier Watch series.

On the high end, the analyst forecasts base model Apple Watch Edition devices to start at $4,999, but classifies segment ASP closer to $7,500 after adding in straps made from precious metals.

Based on current pricing for Apple's silicon iPhone 6 cases, which come in at $35, Munster sees elastomer Apple Watch straps to start in a similar $29 to $35 range, while leather bands could be priced between $49 to $59. Pricing for metal bands like the link bracelet and Milanese loop are more difficult to determine, but the analyst believes steel versions will come in at $99, while gold bands could be priced into the thousands of dollars.

"If you assume that 55 percent of bands purchased are elastomer, 35 percent leather, 10 percent steel, and about 5,000 total gold bands are sold, the average band ASP could be around $50," Munster writes.

He added that if half of all Watch buyers purchase a band -- assuming 8 million Watches are sold in 2015 -- the accessory range would add $25 to Apple's watch category, equating to a $575 ASP. If every Watch customer purchases an extra strap, it would tack on $50, bringing ASP up to $600.

The lower-cost Sport model is expected to make up 55 percent of overall Watch sales, while the mid-tier Apple Watch will take another 45 percent. That leaves very little room for Apple Watch Edition, but Munster believes Apple might sell roughly 10,000 units this year. In an interesting comparison, the firm calculates that Apple Watch Edition business could equate to about two percent of luxury watchmaker Rolex, which moves between 600,000 to 750,000 units each year.

Finally, Munster expects Apple to reveal a better sense of device pricing at its March 9 event, as well as highlight "special features" to drum up consumer interest ahead of release.

AppleInsider will be covering the "Spring forward" event live from San Francisco's Yerba Buena Center next week.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 62

    But the TV set Gene, the TEE VEE! What will it start at!?

     

     

    $499 is optimistic but possible (I've had this in mind at times). $4,999 is a bit more optimistic than I think is possible.

  • Reply 2 of 62
    MacProMacPro Posts: 18,165member
    But the TV set Gene, the TEE VEE! What will it start at!?


    $499 is optimistic but possible (I've had this in mind at times). $4,999 is a bit more optimistic than I think is possible.

    Here's an Omega gold LED watch from the 1970's ...I'm trying to find its cost back then for some perspective.

    1000
  • Reply 3 of 62
    adrayvenadrayven Posts: 460member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by TheWhiteFalcon View Post

     

    But the TV set Gene, the TEE VEE! What will it start at!?

     

     

    $499 is optimistic but possible (I've had this in mind at times). $4,999 is a bit more optimistic than I think is possible.




    I don't think it's optimistic.. I think the 1st and 2nd tiers are more economy. You'll only see $50-$100 bump.. I'd say $450 at the highest price point for steel at most. 

     

    The gold version, yeah, I wouldn't be surprised to see it $7k - $10k

  • Reply 4 of 62
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    Starting with Apple Watch Sport, the aluminum and glass version widely thought to be the least expensive model, Munster expects an ASP of $450 after factoring in configuration alternatives like case and internal storage options.

    They already have 34 different HW styles to choose from. I am not expecting them to also be different by NAND capacity. For holding songs for a workout you really don't need that many. Even a 1GB iPod Shuffle will hold 130 songs at 256kibps with an average duration of 4 minutes. Over 8 hours of music for 1GB is plenty… and I'm expecting it to be 4GB with most of that available to the user.
    On the high end, the analyst forecasts base model Apple Watch Edition devices to start at $4,999, but classifies segment ASP closer to $7,500 after adding in straps made from precious metals.

    All the ?Watch Editions contain the "precious metal" gold, but it's all as part of the plastic or leather strap. There is no sold gold strap at this point.
    Based on current pricing for leather iPhone cases, Munster sees Apple selling Watch straps made out of the same material in the $49 to $59 range. Pricing for metal bands like the link bracelet and Milanese loop are more difficult to determine, but the analyst believes steel versions will come in at $99, while gold bands could be priced into the thousands of dollars.

    Again, what gold bands?
    Finally, Munster expects Apple to reveal a better sense of device pricing at its March 9 event, as well as highlight "special features" to drum up consumer interest ahead of release.

    No shit, Cumberbatch. Munster is sure going out on a limb there.

    - - -

    If he was going to have something worth talking about he could at least have done his homework on the actual product, and perhaps talk about the price range of the ?Watch straps which are plastic, leather and stainless steel, as well as talk about potential price differences for the 38mm v 42mm, and the unique SKUs for the space grey aluminum, black stainless steel, and rose gold options.
  • Reply 5 of 62
    dickprinterdickprinter Posts: 1,060member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by TheWhiteFalcon View Post

     

    But the TV set Gene, the TEE VEE! What will it start at!?

     

     

    $499 is optimistic but possible (I've had this in mind at times). $4,999 is a bit more optimistic than I think is possible.


    Herman, Lily, Marilyn or Eddie could predict Apple products and pricing info better than Gene.

  • Reply 6 of 62
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    Here's an Omega gold LED watch from the 1970's ...I'm trying to find its cost back then for some perspective.

    1000

    $499, according to this site…


    From an inflation calculator website: What cost $499 in 1973 would cost $2622.95 in 2014.
  • Reply 7 of 62
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismY View Post





    $499, according to this site…


    From an inflation calculator website: What cost $499 in 1973 would cost $2622.95 in 2014.



    Looks plated though, not solid.

  • Reply 8 of 62
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member

    Looks plated though, not solid.

    According to the site I linked it is 18-kt gold plated over stainless steel.
  • Reply 9 of 62
    michael scripmichael scrip Posts: 1,912member
    Only 6 more days until we know the actual retail price...

    This is the most torturous version of The Price Is Right

    :D
  • Reply 10 of 62
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Michael Scrip View Post



    Only 6 days until we know the actual retail price...



    This is the most torturous version of The Price Is Right



    image



    Went looking for a relevant image, found this instead.

     

  • Reply 11 of 62
    entropysentropys Posts: 1,647member
    This is first I have heard of 'internal configuration options'?
    Are they saying they will come in a range of storage capacities? Why? Why not just have enought to manage the apps, say 4 or 8 GB, and the rest comes from the iPhone?
  • Reply 12 of 62
    michael scripmichael scrip Posts: 1,912member

    When I hear these "analysts" attempt to predict Apple prices... I envision this:

    400
  • Reply 13 of 62
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    entropys wrote: »
    This is thirst I have heard of 'internal configuration options'?
    Are they saying they will come in a range of storage capacities? Why? Why not just have enought to manage the apps, say 4 or 8 GB, and the rest comes from the iPhone?

    I don't get it either. It also just makes no sense to make the purchase that much more complex for the buyer. When you buy jewelry you aren't looking at how much NAND it has so I feel it would be mistake if Apple offered each of the 34 models in 4GB, 8GB and 16GB capacities, for example, resulting in 102 SKUs.
  • Reply 14 of 62
    yojimbo007yojimbo007 Posts: 960member
    Apple has not mentioned anything about gold bands......
    It will be interesting to see if his orediction comes through ?

    Also him saying " 55% sport, 45% stainless, that leaves little room for gold.... " is kind of a meaningless and confused backwards assesment.

    The "room" is not limited to two models....
    There are 3 models and each will have a certain percentage ...
  • Reply 15 of 62
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    yojimbo007 wrote: »
    Apple has not mentioned anything about previous metal bands......
    It will be interesting to see if his prediction comes through ?

    Despite having no interest in buying anything made of gold I hope they also introduce the link bracelet and Milanese loop in solid gold. I think that would be a good reveal for this sort of event.
  • Reply 16 of 62
    canukstormcanukstorm Posts: 1,868member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismY View Post





    Despite having no interest in buying anything made of gold I hope they also introduce the link bracelet and Milanese loop in solid gold. I think that would be a good reveal for this sort of event.

    Who's gonna buy that? Bill Gates?

  • Reply 17 of 62
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by CanukStorm View Post

     

    Who's gonna buy that? Bill Gates?




    I would love to see Bill somewhere once with a Mac and an iPhone.

  • Reply 18 of 62
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    sog35 wrote: »
    Munster cant even add now. He said 55% sport and 45% stainless. That leaves 0% for gold. Wtf.

    He thinks they will sell only 10,000 gold the first year. Ridiculous. They will sell 20 times that amount in China alone.

    That can happen. It only means that ?Watch Edition sales are too low to make a difference.

    Let's say you have 54.95 and 44.95, that's %5 and 44% with 0.01% being for ?Watch Edition, but that's just a rounding issue which is why we can have totals equaling over 100%. Note he stated 8 million unit for 2014 with only 10,000 for ?Watch Edition. That's 0.125%, would leave 99.875% for ?Watch and ?Watch Sport. Depending on how those are rounded and divided can't you get 55% and 45%? Let's see..

    0.125% ÷ 2 = 0.0625%.
    55% - 0.0625% = 54.938% or 54.94% or 54.9% or 55%, depending on where you're rounding.
    45% - 0.0625% = 44.938% or 44.94% or 44.9% or 45%, depending on where you're rounding.
  • Reply 19 of 62
    foggyhillfoggyhill Posts: 4,767member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SolipsismY View Post





    $499, according to this site…


    From an inflation calculator website: What cost $499 in 1973 would cost $2622.95 in 2014.

     

    Well, using an inflation calculator for something with lots of gold doesn't quite work out :-).

    Gold price now are 13 times that of 1973.

    If the original watch with bracelet had 1.5 ounces (not completely unreasonable), you'd get $145 , then $1885 dollars now just for the gold.

     

    IF use only the gold content (not the tech) to calculate the final modern price I'd have, a $6500 modern price watch.

    But, that's one hell of a markup (240%!), I'd expect they also had priced in the value of the tech.

     

    Splitting the inflationary increase for the tech, from the one for the gold.

    Digital watches appeared in 1972 (year before) and retailed for $2000.

    Prices though for the tech were in a freefall throughout the 1970s. $10 for digital watch by 1979.

    So, by 1973 I'd expect the price for the tech to be $145 maybe

    So, $145 (gold)+$145 (tech) + 72% = $500 (seems about right).

    So, in 2015, $1885 + $770 + 72% = $4567 (that's the "modern" price for this watch.

    Of course, being a collector item, it is surely worth more than that.

     

    Notice how close this price is to the current estimates for the Edition... That should tell you something :-).

     

    Of course, the edition watch doesn't have a gold bracelet, so the markeup could in fact be higher than 80%... Good ol' Apple :-).

    Wonder if they worried about how long the battery lasted in that watch, or if they could pass it as an heirloom ;-).

  • Reply 20 of 62
    Here's an Omega gold LED watch from the 1970's ...I'm trying to find its cost back then for some perspective.

    1000

    Whoa. It looks like it's from the future! This is what Logan 5 would wear to the laser disco!
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