BMO forecasts 19M Apple Watch sales in 2015, with more than half selling in holiday season
Momentum for the Apple Watch will likely take a short time to build driven mostly by apps, one analyst believes, with sales quickly escalating to 10 million units in the holiday 2015 shopping season.
Keith Bachman of BMO Capital Markets believe Apple will sell 19 million Apple Watch units in calendar year 2015, with more than half of those being sold in the December quarter. His prediction was issued in a new note to investors this week, a copy of which was provided to AppleInsider.
Bachman is bullish on the Apple Watch, but he believes it will take some time for applications to be built that will truly sell the public on the upcoming wrist-worn device.
His estimates suggest there will be an installed base of more than 484 million iPhone users as of December 2015. Sales of 19 million Apple Watch units would equate to 3.9 percent of the total user base.
For fiscal year 2016, Bachman believes Apple will sell 36.5 million of the Apple Watch, growing to 10.9 percent of iPhone users by September of 2016.
Bachman's confidence in the Apple Watch comes despite the fact that there is still much not known about the wearable. In particular, he's especially curious to find out final pricing, application availability, and battery life.
Regarding the high-end price point, BMO's analyst isn't concerned if the 18-karat gold Apple Watch Edition sells for more than $10,000. He suspects Apple will sell very few units at that price, as most high-end watch consumers will opt for a brand like Rolex that can stand the test of time.
Bachman also isn't concerned about suspected battery life of around 24 hours. He noted that most consumers have become accustomed to recharging their iPhone at night by their bedside, and he expects Apple Watch users will do the same.
BMO has maintained its price target of $135 for shares of AAPL, along with an "outperform" rating.
Keith Bachman of BMO Capital Markets believe Apple will sell 19 million Apple Watch units in calendar year 2015, with more than half of those being sold in the December quarter. His prediction was issued in a new note to investors this week, a copy of which was provided to AppleInsider.
Bachman is bullish on the Apple Watch, but he believes it will take some time for applications to be built that will truly sell the public on the upcoming wrist-worn device.
His estimates suggest there will be an installed base of more than 484 million iPhone users as of December 2015. Sales of 19 million Apple Watch units would equate to 3.9 percent of the total user base.
For fiscal year 2016, Bachman believes Apple will sell 36.5 million of the Apple Watch, growing to 10.9 percent of iPhone users by September of 2016.
Bachman's confidence in the Apple Watch comes despite the fact that there is still much not known about the wearable. In particular, he's especially curious to find out final pricing, application availability, and battery life.
Regarding the high-end price point, BMO's analyst isn't concerned if the 18-karat gold Apple Watch Edition sells for more than $10,000. He suspects Apple will sell very few units at that price, as most high-end watch consumers will opt for a brand like Rolex that can stand the test of time.
Bachman also isn't concerned about suspected battery life of around 24 hours. He noted that most consumers have become accustomed to recharging their iPhone at night by their bedside, and he expects Apple Watch users will do the same.
BMO has maintained its price target of $135 for shares of AAPL, along with an "outperform" rating.
Comments
I have to wonder how long it will be before that becomes: 20% Apple (90% of the profit) and 70 % Scamsung (20% of the profit) 10% Microcrap (-10% of the profit)
How about settle for 1% of the watch market?
Yeah, that's good! I agree with this ... and so would someone else.
1) It's someone's guess so there is no looks like.
2) Do you have the post in which he agreed to the bet so others can moderate for the winner?
3) If you are certain of 19M units then why haven't you taken me up on my bet of $350 to the winner (the starting price of ?Watch)?
I think you forgot a couple between those two.
Do people still remember Bachman Turner Overdrive?
I stand corrected.
I think you forgot a couple between those two.
iSheep = the term fandroids use to describe Apple device owners when idevices beat the shit out of android.
So much hatred for MS from you lately.
Sounds reasonably accurate. I'm inclined to be guided by Jony's phrase that Apple Watch is a "compelling beginning."
WatchAware.com has an interesting piece about the sensors on the back not being a heart rate sensor.
I used to believe it would be a failure, but now it is looking more appealing to me. I think it will be a modest success that will satiate initial demand, then level off and decline like iPad sales did.
Ipads still sold 21M last quarter (10B in sales!), 18% under its peek. Taking in almost 100% of the industry profits.
If it "fails" in this way 4.5 years from release, they'd have a runaway success.
They'd take that.
If Apple sells 20 million Apple Watches a year, then at an average of $600 a watch, Apple will add $12 BILLION in revenue.
The ENTIRE worldwide watch market is $16 BILLION in revenue.
Apple not only will create and add revenue to the worldwide watch market, it will TAKE A LARGE CHUNK out of the luxury watch market.
Go Apple!
That's a big 'if' on both the number of units and ASP. What basis do you have for those values that are more than 25% higher than the fastest selling CE ever sold, the iPad, being beaten by an iPhone accessory with a higher ASP?