Same here. Just bought 150 shares at $125.07 this morning. Even though I don't like the watch prices, but this stock is still way undervalued and since, I've been buying almost 500 shares from $106, $111 and now $125.
I also question what is deemed 'successful'. Certainly sales compared to Android wear devices is one metric, but probably not accurate of the general acceptance.
Beyond Apple fans and early adopters, I don't see the need of another device that simply is a greater convenience.
I can see the Apple watch being a niche product but not ever taking off in record numbers like the iPhone. Even beyond generations 2 or 3.
So, if you were in Apple's position, what would have been your next major product after iPhone/iPad? I'm serious. I'm talking about a mainstream product, that ties into Apple's ecosystem, that people will buy in the millions, will generate high levels of profit, that has legs and growth potential for the future, and that fits the Apple brand and company philosophy. Of all the Apple Watch cynics, I have yet to see a SINGLE person propose a more rational course of action that Apple should have taken. Something feasible and believable for this point in time.
Depends what you mean by catch up. I am sure that Android Wear and its OEMs will do a lot of work to make it "look like" the ?Watch, but in terms of experience I don't believe they will catch up. They won't have the fit & finish of the Apple Watch either.
So, if you were in Apple's position, what would have been your next major product after iPhone/iPad? I'm serious. I'm talking about a mainstream product, that ties into Apple's ecosystem, that people will buy in the millions, will generate high levels of profit, that has legs and growth potential for the future, and that fits the Apple brand and company philosophy. Of all the Apple Watch cynics, I have yet to see a SINGLE person propose a more rational course of action that Apple should have taken. Something feasible and believable for this point in time.
I'm actually curious what product ideas Jobs had in the pipeline. I'm sure he had a lot of competing ideas continually evolving internally and many would never become anything. The iPad was really the Knowledge Navigator Apple had as an idea back in the 80s.
Omg, 5 years really... Imo the Android watches will catch up within 1 year.
Copy in a year? Sure.
CES 2016 will be filled with "me too" products, but 5 years to recreate the level of sophistication and detail Apple has poured into ?Watch is an aggressive and optimistic timeframe, IMO.
It used to be 5 years, but with Apple's even deeper vertical integration with ?Watch alloys and composites up through Swift performance on their 'bespoke' ARM chips and SIPs will anyone be able to copy Apple in this area in the next decade? Some aspects? Sure. Most areas on a very superficial level? OK. But no one else is moving the state-of-the-art forward the way Apple is, so they will always be a distant second so long as they remain too lazy, myopic, and/or ignorant to understand why Apple's investments lead to such groundbreaking products that lead to their amazing customer interest which leads to their revenue and profits.
The killer app is not "design" or some specific app. The killer app is Convenience. And as always, convenience offered by a device isn't usually obvious until you start using it. Once you do though, you can't imagine parting with the dang thing. How many of us who were adults during the pre-mobile phone era feel naked if we leave the house today without our phones?
The daily use demo by Kevin Lynch might look uninteresting but boarding a plane without having to pull out your phone? Little conveniences like that are what will make life without an AppleWatch unimaginable once you start using one. Most of us think of going to the airport and catching a plane as one of the most unpleasant recurring tasks we face. When other passengers see you whiz through the final gate checkpoint, that will resonate; no ad can be more effective at selling the device.
Exactly. This is the main point. And convenience is just another word for liberation from hassle, and even enabling of things you wouldn't or couldn't do before. A few of these little victories over inconvenience, awkwardness and impossibilty every day will be enough to sell the wrist-terminal scenario to snowballing numbers of reasonable people.
Holdouts will begin to feel like flip phone users do now—backward. But by all means, you holdouts go ahead and paint yourselves very publicly into a corner.
Exactly. This is the main point. And convenience is just another word for liberation from hassle, and even enabling of things you wouldn't or couldn't do before. A few of these little victories over inconvenience, awkwardness and impossibilty every day will be enough to sell the wrist-terminal scenario to snowballing numbers of reasonable people.
Holdouts will begin to feel like flip phone users do now—backward. But by all means, you holdouts go ahead and paint yourselves very publicly into a corner.
How many of you have been in a meeting where the boss gives a guy a death stare for pulling out his phone to glance at the screen? Score one for the AppleWatch.
So, if you were in Apple's position, what would have been your next major product after iPhone/iPad? I'm serious. I'm talking about a mainstream product, that ties into Apple's ecosystem, that people will buy in the millions, will generate high levels of profit, that has legs and growth potential for the future, and that fits the Apple brand and company philosophy. Of all the Apple Watch cynics, I have yet to see a SINGLE person propose a more rational course of action that Apple should have taken. Something feasible and believable for this point in time.
I think that is part of the definition of "cynic" - critical of something/everything, but not able to provide any better ideas (though I am sure someone will throw out a customizable desktop tower as the path to greatness...).
I wrote similarly a few weeks ago, when an argument was that Apple should focus on living room instead of the ?Watch. I do agree that living room has some growth for Apple, but the growth potential does not seem nearly as good (longer term) as wearables. TV/video content & tech is encumbered with regulations and per-country/region h/w requirements. And where a large (and growing) number of people seem to believe all content should be free. Compare that with wearables where the market is each person, with multiple accessories, and one device can be used globally. I have a feeling Apple might know what they are doing.
CES 2016 will be filled with "me too" products, but 5 years to recreate the level of sophistication and detail Apple has poured into ?Watch is an aggressive and optimistic timeframe, IMO.
It used to be 5 years, but with Apple's even deeper vertical integration with ?Watch alloys and composites up through Swift performance on their 'bespoke' ARM chips and SIPs will anyone be able to copy Apple in this area in the next decade? Some aspects? Sure. Most areas on a very superficial level? OK. But no one else is moving the state-of-the-art forward the way Apple is, so they will always be a distant second so long as they remain too lazy, myopic, and/or ignorant to understand why Apple's investments lead to such groundbreaking products that lead to their amazing customer interest which leads to their revenue and profits.
Excellent post. Yes, some components of Apple products can be duplicated to some degree, but as an entire ecosystem and entire products, they are pulling further and further ahead because of all the areas they have made so much investments in. There isn't a single company in the world that can compete with a combination of things like the appstore, insane build quality, custom ultra-efficient ARM chips, Touch ID, Apple Pay, Swift, Metal, Secure element, Full 64bit support, etc. As Apple leverages these more and more, as well as new technologies (ie. force touch), and integrates them fully across products, there's nothing anyone else can do. The lack of standards in the Android world makes it impossible to build anything that truly competes on all these levels.
Small amt compared to you, but I haven't sold a single share since my initial purchases. Yes, this def looks like manipulation. Everything from the keynote gave me optimism about the future. New Macbook makes everything else out there look like shit, and the Watch will be something that not only is a growing profit center, but will attract more affluent people to both Apple stores, and Apple products. Just like previous Apple products, anaysts/wallstreet don't understand it, and how it ties into the whole Apple ecosystem, experience,and product line.
Arcuri believes that Apple may update the Apple Watch platform very soon. He suspects that "2.0 Watch versions" will debut this fall and will not require tethering to an iPhone --?something that he believes limits the potential market significantly.
There's an aspect of that kind of thinking that seems deeply flawed to me. Who introduces a $10,000 gold watch in April and then makes it obsolete in October? My guess --- NOBODY!
I don't know how Apple is going to balance the competing expectations of people coming from the luxury watch market and people coming from the smartphone market, but I just can't see them treating this product like another iPod or iPhone. Something has to give.
I've been thinking that it would be possible to pay to get the guts updated, while keeping the case. Technically the design seems very amenable to this.
Alternatively (nearly equivalently), perhaps you can get a substantial credit on a trade-in.
But something has to be done here.... If somebody buys a $10k gold watch and it's obsolete in 2 years, with no upgrade path, they are going to be massively pi$$ed. And somehow I don't think you want to pi$$ off people who can afford $10k gold watches.
When Wall Street praise Apple, AAPL price drops. When they bash it, price goes up in coming days. So, with this, I'll dump my 500 shares at this quarter report and buy back sometime in Aug-Sept.
There's an aspect of that kind of thinking that seems deeply flawed to me. Who introduces a $10,000 gold watch in April and then makes it obsolete in October? My guess --- NOBODY!
I don't know how Apple is going to balance the competing expectations of people coming from the luxury watch market and people coming from the smartphone market, but I just can't see them treating this product like another iPod or iPhone. Something has to give.
I've been thinking that it would be possible to pay to get the guts updated, while keeping the case. Technically the design seems very amenable to this.
Alternatively (nearly equivalently), perhaps you can get a substantial credit on a trade-in.
But something has to be done here.... If somebody buys a $10k gold watch and it's obsolete in 2 years, with no upgrade path, they are going to be massively pi$$ed. And somehow I don't think you want to pi$$ off people who can afford $10k gold watches.
Who buys $10k watch? Some celebrities or rich folks who don't care about money. So, they won't even care if it's upgradable because they consider $10K watch as jewelry more than a useful tech device. Well, $10k for them just like pocket changes.
Apple actually will charge $10,000 for the Edition, I confess I was wrong. IMO it's a loss leader, I expect Apple will sell very few and give more Editions away to celebrities, for appearance etc., than it sells. Which begs the question, how deeply discounted will Apple Watch be? 25% to 40% discounts aren't unusual in the watch business. Look at the prices in Tourneau or on Amazon. Apple prices MacBooks with discounts in mind. How much below MSRP will the Watch and accessories sell for once an abundant supply is available, I wonder?
I wish Apple luck. I have ownerd every model iPhone ever made yet have no interest at all in the watch. Hopefully I am not the norm.
I have been an Apple supporter/customer since 1982 and I finally bought my first iPhone last October. No you are not the norm, you just don’t get it yet. This is a whole new category Apple just created. Current smart watches are just like the smart phones were before 2007. Once people figure out the potential of this new category (health kit, home Kit, carplay, etc) they will come around.
Wall Street might have been happy but it didn't last through the end of yesterday's trading and definitely disappeared this morning with a total selloff across the entire market hitting AAPL very hard. What were they expecting, free watches?
I think it's the news about the CIA hacking Xcode and investors wondering how that impacts China sales of Apple devices.
From the ads and demos I've seen, Apple freaking nailed this watch interface. Hit it out of the park. I'm still a few years from being a smartwatch customer, but Android Wear has some catching-up to do in the sexy department (and, as most of you know, I say this as someone who prefers Android over iOS).
Apple's going to bank on this. This probably is the next iPod or the next iPhone.
Comments
good time to buy shares IMO.
just bought 240 shares at $125
Take advantage of the manipulation my friend.
Same here. Just bought 150 shares at $125.07 this morning. Even though I don't like the watch prices, but this stock is still way undervalued and since, I've been buying almost 500 shares from $106, $111 and now $125.
This is me as well.
I also question what is deemed 'successful'. Certainly sales compared to Android wear devices is one metric, but probably not accurate of the general acceptance.
Beyond Apple fans and early adopters, I don't see the need of another device that simply is a greater convenience.
I can see the Apple watch being a niche product but not ever taking off in record numbers like the iPhone. Even beyond generations 2 or 3.
So, if you were in Apple's position, what would have been your next major product after iPhone/iPad? I'm serious. I'm talking about a mainstream product, that ties into Apple's ecosystem, that people will buy in the millions, will generate high levels of profit, that has legs and growth potential for the future, and that fits the Apple brand and company philosophy. Of all the Apple Watch cynics, I have yet to see a SINGLE person propose a more rational course of action that Apple should have taken. Something feasible and believable for this point in time.
Depends what you mean by catch up. I am sure that Android Wear and its OEMs will do a lot of work to make it "look like" the ?Watch, but in terms of experience I don't believe they will catch up. They won't have the fit & finish of the Apple Watch either.
Xiaomi will have it in 6 months.
I'm actually curious what product ideas Jobs had in the pipeline. I'm sure he had a lot of competing ideas continually evolving internally and many would never become anything. The iPad was really the Knowledge Navigator Apple had as an idea back in the 80s.
I was confident of Apple Watch's success. But now that the clowns... analysts on Wall Street agree, I'm not so sure.
Copy in a year? Sure.
CES 2016 will be filled with "me too" products, but 5 years to recreate the level of sophistication and detail Apple has poured into ?Watch is an aggressive and optimistic timeframe, IMO.
It used to be 5 years, but with Apple's even deeper vertical integration with ?Watch alloys and composites up through Swift performance on their 'bespoke' ARM chips and SIPs will anyone be able to copy Apple in this area in the next decade? Some aspects? Sure. Most areas on a very superficial level? OK. But no one else is moving the state-of-the-art forward the way Apple is, so they will always be a distant second so long as they remain too lazy, myopic, and/or ignorant to understand why Apple's investments lead to such groundbreaking products that lead to their amazing customer interest which leads to their revenue and profits.
Exactly. This is the main point. And convenience is just another word for liberation from hassle, and even enabling of things you wouldn't or couldn't do before. A few of these little victories over inconvenience, awkwardness and impossibilty every day will be enough to sell the wrist-terminal scenario to snowballing numbers of reasonable people.
Holdouts will begin to feel like flip phone users do now—backward. But by all means, you holdouts go ahead and paint yourselves very publicly into a corner.
Exactly. This is the main point. And convenience is just another word for liberation from hassle, and even enabling of things you wouldn't or couldn't do before. A few of these little victories over inconvenience, awkwardness and impossibilty every day will be enough to sell the wrist-terminal scenario to snowballing numbers of reasonable people.
Holdouts will begin to feel like flip phone users do now—backward. But by all means, you holdouts go ahead and paint yourselves very publicly into a corner.
How many of you have been in a meeting where the boss gives a guy a death stare for pulling out his phone to glance at the screen? Score one for the AppleWatch.
So, if you were in Apple's position, what would have been your next major product after iPhone/iPad? I'm serious. I'm talking about a mainstream product, that ties into Apple's ecosystem, that people will buy in the millions, will generate high levels of profit, that has legs and growth potential for the future, and that fits the Apple brand and company philosophy. Of all the Apple Watch cynics, I have yet to see a SINGLE person propose a more rational course of action that Apple should have taken. Something feasible and believable for this point in time.
I think that is part of the definition of "cynic" - critical of something/everything, but not able to provide any better ideas (though I am sure someone will throw out a customizable desktop tower as the path to greatness...).
I wrote similarly a few weeks ago, when an argument was that Apple should focus on living room instead of the ?Watch. I do agree that living room has some growth for Apple, but the growth potential does not seem nearly as good (longer term) as wearables. TV/video content & tech is encumbered with regulations and per-country/region h/w requirements. And where a large (and growing) number of people seem to believe all content should be free. Compare that with wearables where the market is each person, with multiple accessories, and one device can be used globally. I have a feeling Apple might know what they are doing.
Copy in a year? Sure.
CES 2016 will be filled with "me too" products, but 5 years to recreate the level of sophistication and detail Apple has poured into ?Watch is an aggressive and optimistic timeframe, IMO.
It used to be 5 years, but with Apple's even deeper vertical integration with ?Watch alloys and composites up through Swift performance on their 'bespoke' ARM chips and SIPs will anyone be able to copy Apple in this area in the next decade? Some aspects? Sure. Most areas on a very superficial level? OK. But no one else is moving the state-of-the-art forward the way Apple is, so they will always be a distant second so long as they remain too lazy, myopic, and/or ignorant to understand why Apple's investments lead to such groundbreaking products that lead to their amazing customer interest which leads to their revenue and profits.
Excellent post. Yes, some components of Apple products can be duplicated to some degree, but as an entire ecosystem and entire products, they are pulling further and further ahead because of all the areas they have made so much investments in. There isn't a single company in the world that can compete with a combination of things like the appstore, insane build quality, custom ultra-efficient ARM chips, Touch ID, Apple Pay, Swift, Metal, Secure element, Full 64bit support, etc. As Apple leverages these more and more, as well as new technologies (ie. force touch), and integrates them fully across products, there's nothing anyone else can do. The lack of standards in the Android world makes it impossible to build anything that truly competes on all these levels.
Good for you. I just bought $5K worth @ $124.50.
Small amt compared to you, but I haven't sold a single share since my initial purchases. Yes, this def looks like manipulation. Everything from the keynote gave me optimism about the future. New Macbook makes everything else out there look like shit, and the Watch will be something that not only is a growing profit center, but will attract more affluent people to both Apple stores, and Apple products. Just like previous Apple products, anaysts/wallstreet don't understand it, and how it ties into the whole Apple ecosystem, experience,and product line.
Yup.
There's an aspect of that kind of thinking that seems deeply flawed to me. Who introduces a $10,000 gold watch in April and then makes it obsolete in October? My guess --- NOBODY!
I don't know how Apple is going to balance the competing expectations of people coming from the luxury watch market and people coming from the smartphone market, but I just can't see them treating this product like another iPod or iPhone. Something has to give.
I've been thinking that it would be possible to pay to get the guts updated, while keeping the case. Technically the design seems very amenable to this.
Alternatively (nearly equivalently), perhaps you can get a substantial credit on a trade-in.
But something has to be done here.... If somebody buys a $10k gold watch and it's obsolete in 2 years, with no upgrade path, they are going to be massively pi$$ed. And somehow I don't think you want to pi$$ off people who can afford $10k gold watches.
When Wall Street praise Apple, AAPL price drops. When they bash it, price goes up in coming days. So, with this, I'll dump my 500 shares at this quarter report and buy back sometime in Aug-Sept.
There's an aspect of that kind of thinking that seems deeply flawed to me. Who introduces a $10,000 gold watch in April and then makes it obsolete in October? My guess --- NOBODY!
I don't know how Apple is going to balance the competing expectations of people coming from the luxury watch market and people coming from the smartphone market, but I just can't see them treating this product like another iPod or iPhone. Something has to give.
I've been thinking that it would be possible to pay to get the guts updated, while keeping the case. Technically the design seems very amenable to this.
Alternatively (nearly equivalently), perhaps you can get a substantial credit on a trade-in.
But something has to be done here.... If somebody buys a $10k gold watch and it's obsolete in 2 years, with no upgrade path, they are going to be massively pi$$ed. And somehow I don't think you want to pi$$ off people who can afford $10k gold watches.
Who buys $10k watch? Some celebrities or rich folks who don't care about money. So, they won't even care if it's upgradable because they consider $10K watch as jewelry more than a useful tech device. Well, $10k for them just like pocket changes.
Apple actually will charge $10,000 for the Edition, I confess I was wrong. IMO it's a loss leader, I expect Apple will sell very few and give more Editions away to celebrities, for appearance etc., than it sells. Which begs the question, how deeply discounted will Apple Watch be? 25% to 40% discounts aren't unusual in the watch business. Look at the prices in Tourneau or on Amazon. Apple prices MacBooks with discounts in mind. How much below MSRP will the Watch and accessories sell for once an abundant supply is available, I wonder?
I was confident of Apple Watch's success. But now that the clowns... analysts on Wall Street agree, I'm not so sure.
LOL. Exactly. We should go against Wall Street clowns to make money in stocks.
I wish Apple luck. I have ownerd every model iPhone ever made yet have no interest at all in the watch. Hopefully I am not the norm.
I have been an Apple supporter/customer since 1982 and I finally bought my first iPhone last October. No you are not the norm, you just don’t get it yet. This is a whole new category Apple just created. Current smart watches are just like the smart phones were before 2007. Once people figure out the potential of this new category (health kit, home Kit, carplay, etc) they will come around.
Wall Street might have been happy but it didn't last through the end of yesterday's trading and definitely disappeared this morning with a total selloff across the entire market hitting AAPL very hard. What were they expecting, free watches?
I think it's the news about the CIA hacking Xcode and investors wondering how that impacts China sales of Apple devices.
From the ads and demos I've seen, Apple freaking nailed this watch interface. Hit it out of the park. I'm still a few years from being a smartwatch customer, but Android Wear has some catching-up to do in the sexy department (and, as most of you know, I say this as someone who prefers Android over iOS).
Apple's going to bank on this. This probably is the next iPod or the next iPhone.