Swiss watch industry headed for an 'ice age' thanks to Apple Watch, Swatch inventor says

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  • Reply 21 of 146
    ingelaingela Posts: 217member

    As jewelry, high end traditional watches will be fine. But my microwave has a clock, my oven and TV have clocks. My car, my computer and phone have a clock.No need to strap one on too. But this is just the beginning. Soon we will see wrist devices dispatched to to entire police forces with dedicated apps. To warehouse workers, Everywhere. And it's not just the Swiss that need worry, Apple itself. After adoption comes commoditization. So it's a never ending loop of innovation, adaptation, commodization. Industry has to always try and stay ahead of it.



    The first thing Android wear will copy is the haptic feedback for notifications. As with the early smart phone inventions before it, it now seems obvious. Hindsight is 50/50

  • Reply 22 of 146
    adybadyb Posts: 203member
    dugbug wrote: »
    the kids these days are all digital.  The watch will be big.  Maybe not this first cut, but analog watches will go the way of rotary phones.

    I think that there is a part of the analog market that will continue strongly as there is something about a quality movement, especially to my eyes one that is visible, that has more to do with art than simply telling the time.

    I can however see that there will be a number of watches with a more technical bent that could be hit hard by the Apple Watch.
  • Reply 23 of 146
    tundraboytundraboy Posts: 1,844member

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by tundraboy View Post



    Humility is an undervalued virtue.



    Imagine the companies who would still be around today, or at least be in better shape, if their CEOs exhibited a little more humility in the face of new competitive threats.



    Blackberry, Microsoft, Dell, Palm, the list goes on.

     

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by davidness View Post

     

     

    Don't forget Kodak & Polaroid.


     

    I didn't put them on my list because I don't remember the CEOs of those companies making arrogant or dismissive public statements like the ones I listed.

     

    You should always respect the competition, if only because not doing so leads to smugness that leads, in turn, to fatal inaction.

  • Reply 24 of 146
    tundraboytundraboy Posts: 1,844member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Ingela View Post

     

    The first thing Android wear will copy is the haptic feedback for notifications. As with the early smart phone inventions before it, it now seems obvious. Hindsight is 50/50


     

    Haptic feed back is patented.  And Apple really is the first to deploy anything like it.  I won't claim to be an expert but unlike rounded corners or swipe to unlock, I think this patent is a lot easier to defend and enforce.

  • Reply 25 of 146
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 33,407member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by tundraboy View Post

     

     

    Haptic feed back is patented.  And Apple really is the first to deploy anything like it.  I won't claim to be an expert but unlike rounded corners or swipe to unlock, I think this patent is a lot easier to defend and enforce.




    Haptics is not something that is new, however Apple's specific implementation is new.

  • Reply 26 of 146
    singularitysingularity Posts: 1,328member
    ingela wrote: »
    <p>As jewelry, high end traditional watches will be fine. But my microwave has a clock, my oven and TV have clocks. My car, my computer and phone have a clock.No need to strap one on too. But this is just the beginning. Soon we will see wrist devices dispatched to to entire police forces with dedicated apps. To warehouse workers, Everywhere. And it's not just the Swiss that need worry, Apple itself. After adoption comes commoditization. So it's a never ending loop of innovation, adaptation, commodization. Industry has to always try and stay ahead of it.<br /><br />The first thing Android wear will copy is the haptic feedback for notifications. As with the early smart phone inventions before it, it now seems obvious. Hindsight is 50/50</p>
    I believe it's already in Android wear
  • Reply 27 of 146
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Ingela View Post

     

     And it's not just the Swiss that need worry, Apple itself. After adoption comes commoditization.


    Nope. That doesn't apply. If that was the case the Mac would be dead and so would the iPhone.

  • Reply 28 of 146
    paxmanpaxman Posts: 4,712member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismY View Post



    I think it's clear that's part of the perception Apple wishes to change with their $349 to $17,000 price range, every CE component being identical across that price range, with no capacity or performance difference only materials and looks differences, and the heavy push towards today's fashion. Will they succeed? I can't answer, but I do think it's the right way to go.



    I struggle with preconceptions, and its an interesting struggle. I love it when the status quo, as it were, is up-ended and I realize that my idea of what something truly is is nothing but a construct in my mind. I agree that Apple has thought this out well and is doing the right thing. The term 're-define' is so overused it has become an empty cliché but that is what Apple is trying to do. It is a challenge to alter people's perception of what a watch is. This may well be the point at which the traditional watch becomes an antique. People like jewelry but why will they carry a clunky mechanical device that tells the time. I haven't worn a watch for many years but then again I don't wear jewelry. I wonder if the wrist watch suddenly became the new pocket watch.

     

    I also think Apple happens to be doing this at the perfect time. People are fascinated by smart devices, they have money to spare and they are fickle. Together with Health Kit, Research Kit, Home Kit Car Play and Apple Pay the Apple Watch could become bigger than we ever thought. I can see it but I am not sure I believe it. Loving it, though.

  • Reply 29 of 146
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 13,002member
    tundraboy wrote: »
    Humility is an undervalued virtue.

    Imagine the companies who would still be around today, or at least be in better shape, if their CEOs exhibited a little more humility in the face of new competitive threats.

    Blackberry, Microsoft, Dell, Palm, the list goes on.

    No, they'd still be gone, or in dire straits.
  • Reply 30 of 146
    bageljoeybageljoey Posts: 1,977member
    williamh wrote: »

    In the end, there may be some benefit for quality watch makers as Apple expands the number of people who even consider wearing a watch. I haven't worn a watch since I started carrying a phone about 20 years ago. Now, I want that iWatch. Maybe someday, just an excellent watch.

    This^^^
    Is exactly what I would say.
    I don't know how many existing watch customers Apple will poach, but they will most likely grab the vast majority of new (or long returning) watch customers.
  • Reply 31 of 146
    mac_128mac_128 Posts: 3,454member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by williamh View Post



    When you can get a beautiful Apple Watch (I love it) for the same price or cheaper than a Swiss watch that doesn't have all the good health sensors, etc., it's hard for me to consider the plain ol' watch.

    Not everybody will love the aesthetic of the ?Watch. Not everybody needs the abilities of a smart watch. Watch aficionados are more interested in fashion than function. It's unlikely people who buy watches are going to switch en masse to the ?Watch merely because of its capabilities and price, any more than they would replace an expensive bracelet with the ?Watch as a choice in jewelry because of all the things it can do. There is a huge gulf between these two designs, regardless of what they do, and I suspect that people who would by one will not necessarily be interested in the other.

     

  • Reply 32 of 146
    hill60hill60 Posts: 6,992member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by AdyB View Post





    I think that there is a part of the analog market that will continue strongly as there is something about a quality movement, especially to my eyes one that is visible, that has more to do with art than simply telling the time.



    I can however see that there will be a number of watches with a more technical bent that could be hit hard by the Apple Watch.

     

    Don't forget, you can also use an analog watch as a compass, by pointing it's hands to the sun, as long as you know whether to compensate for daylight savings.

  • Reply 33 of 146
    ingelaingela Posts: 217member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by singularity View Post





    I believe it's already in Android wear

    Yes your're right! I should have googled that first.

  • Reply 34 of 146
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    sflocal wrote: »

    This is a stupid statement.  Exactly what are the watchmakers supposed to do?  They make a completely different product than Apple's watch.  They have zero in-house software/ecosystem capabilities.  They sell a product that does one thing, tell time.... okay two if I include style/prestige.


    What does Mock want?  Rolex can't create a watch OS, so in theory, they'd probably have to use that piece-of-sh!t Android OS which will really put some brown skid-marks on their brand.


    I think Apple will take a sizable chunk out of the watch market in the next couple years.  I highly doubt that it will take away from the very high-end watch market.  I think many folks that can afford 5-figure watches are not tech-literate at all.  They will still want the pricey, legacy timepieces.  Those will never truly go out of style.


    The lower-end watch makers like swatch, timex, etc.. I think they will be impacted.

    I forget who first said it, but I know I fieat saw it on Daring Fireball. Basically it said Google is catching up to Apple faster than Apple is catching to Google is cloud services.

    In terms of reducing a lead I think that's generally true, but that's because HW-based solutions are considerably less complex than SW-based solutions, not because Google is a more competent or focused company than Apple.

    I think that same HW v SW comparison works here, as well, this time in Apple's favour. I think Apple has already shown they can not only design and build a wrist-worn device of excellent quality that even far surpasses their other CE devices. I think we'll see evidence buikd that the "watch" companies can't make great smartwatch (I expect them to partner with SW companies). And I think we'll see other companies try to follow Apple's lead (to an extent) by offering many smartwatch SKUs that are mostly differentiated by their look, not their smartness.

    This will cause problems for the "watch" makers because they have have to but a company or give up control to someone like Google with Android Wear. That hasn't really helped Android-based vendors make a lot of money and when dealing with a fashionable object Android or Windows isn't going to sell a high-end Rolex smartwatch if the last couple decades are any indication. Then you have the CE companies trying the same thing but no high-end customers or favoruae mindshare to speak of that won't be able to make a dent. Maybe Samsung can sell a $12k black Platinum smartwatch with Android Wear with "WristWiz" to the Korean market that works with well their phones but I don't think that will work well in general.

    PS: This really hasn't been discussed, but it's amazing that $349 can get you the same functionality as $17K with a very similiar if not exact build quality across the range. There is a huge range in cars and we can say they all so the same thing — get you from point A to B — but the build quality and performavce is no way close between the least and most expensive.
  • Reply 35 of 146
    I don't see myself needing a watch now. But that's what I thought about the iPod, iPhone and iPad at first. By version 3 I had to have them all.

    I don't actually think Apple will rob customers in large numbers from watch makers. They'll bring in new customers. Heck, if they can get glucose monitoring down and home kit catches on, I'll definitely be on board in a year or two.
  • Reply 36 of 146
    paxmanpaxman Posts: 4,712member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismY View Post



    PS: This really hasn't been discussed, but it's amazing that $349 can get you the same functionality as $17K with a very similiar if not exact build quality across the range. There is a huge range in cars and we can say they all so the same thing — get you from point A to B — but the build quality and performavce is no way close between the least and most expensive.

    Well, I wrote something about this yesterday - but more the other way around. Someone said the gold edition was 'the best' and I argued it was not, it was perhaps the nicest. Cost + precious materials can equate to the 'nicest', but not the best. I suspect people with a lot of money, of which there are many, will not be able to resist the allure of the sheer luxury but really, shouldn't they expect several days battery and a slimmer design? I wonder if further differentiation will come with new technical advances, or if it will be a pure luxury 'thing'.

     

    Oh, and are you bicycling while you are typing or using Siri while sailing? I've seen some mistake ridden post but that one pretty much topped the lot. Not that I care :)

  • Reply 37 of 146
    paxmanpaxman Posts: 4,712member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by D.J. Adequate View Post



     Heck, if they can get glucose monitoring down and home kit catches on, I'll definitely be on board in a year or two.



    There is so much scope for development the mind boggles. I remember a few years someone claimed it was the 'golden age' for Apple. Perhaps it has only just started?

  • Reply 38 of 146
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    paxman wrote: »
    Oh, and are you bicycling while you are typing or using Siri while sailing? I've seen some mistake ridden post but that one pretty much topped the lot. Not that I care :)

    Dictated whilst walking. :D I know, so many errors. I much prefer using my Mac.
  • Reply 39 of 146
    wigbywigby Posts: 692member
    I'm highly suspicious of this supposedly huge watch industry.

    As far as I know, the average price of the watch today is about $3, largely made up of cheap Chinese renditions. The Western world has largely abandoned watches, other than for the high end, a very small market. Once upon a time, everyone wore watches. Then the mobile phone came along, making them redundant, like the mp3 player, the camera, etc.

    Will Apple get everyone wearing watches again in the first world? I doubt it. We have iPhones.

    Except Apple isn't the only one in this market. Apple might make the most money in it but everyone else in this market meaning Android who will sell billions of devices and Apple will make billions. Then when everyone you know has a smartwatch, you will want or need one just like when everyone first joined Facebook or got their first smartphone.
  • Reply 40 of 146
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismY View Post



    PS: This really hasn't been discussed, but it's amazing that $349 can get you the same functionality as $17K with a very similiar if not exact build quality across the range. There is a huge range in cars and we can say they all so the same thing — get you from point A to B — but the build quality and performavce is no way close between the least and most expensive.

     

    I was going to bring that up yesterday... but couldn't decide which avenue/angle to take... considering that there was an Apple Watch orgy happening in most threads.

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