Analyst predicts 1M Apple Watches sold over launch weekend, 2.3M by June

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  • Reply 41 of 147
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    mstone wrote: »
    It is difficult to measure the diagonal of a rounded rectangle. See image. If for example I measured to the theoretical extended corners on the 42mm it would measure exactly 2".

    [image]

    If you can get the height and width, can you not also get an approximation of far in on each side the end of the case is from the display edge (not the border edge) so you can then figure out the height and width of the cornered display, and thereby its screen size on the diagonal. Or even just on side of the display since we know it's a 5:4 aspect ratio? What app can I use to overlay a grid so I can figure this out?
  • Reply 42 of 147
    mstonemstone Posts: 11,510member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SolipsismY View Post





    If you can get the height and width, can you not also get an approximation of far in on each side the end of the case is from the display edge (not the border edge) so you can then figure out the height and width of the cornered display, and thereby its screen size on the diagonal. Or even just on side of the display since we know it's a 5:4 aspect ratio? What app can I use to overlay a grid so I can figure this out?

    The bezel is 1.8mm or 3/32" but I don't think that the cornered display is the right measurement. I think there is some black border inside the screen area.

  • Reply 43 of 147
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismY View Post





    I think I'm going to wait on the MacBook and instead just buy some cheaper Win notebook with USB-C for power laster this year (hopefully) and a new 15" MBP as soon as they get the new trackpad and whatever else they come with. I have to assume if the 15" didn't get the reasonably simply update to the Force Track trackpad, like its 13" brethren, that there are some other major changes in the works. The 15" MBP is 0.04" thinner than the 13" MBP but considering that the Force Trackpad is in both the 11" and 13" MBAs, and the new MacBook, that it can't be due to that aspect of the design it wasn't updated.



    15" didn't get updated because the CPU's it needed weren't shipped in a Broadwell variant yet.

  • Reply 44 of 147
    slurpyslurpy Posts: 5,382member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Benjamin Frost View Post



    I predict that Apple will sell fewer than 10 million in the first year, sadly making it their first major failure since Steve Jobs returned to Apple in 1997.



    It will be the first failure under Tim Cook's watch.

     

    Yeah, we're all sure you felt "sad" while making that post, since clearly trolling the Apple Watch and Tim Cook is the primary reason you get up in the morning, and something you exert great passion and effort towards throughout your day. I notice that the rate you're using the term "failure" in relation to the watch is increasing by the day, no doubt because you know that you're running out of time to call it such. Because of intellectual cowardice, you can pretend now to live in the fictious world where the product is a failure, as opposed to after it launches, where that fictitious world you've built for yourself will fall apart very quickly.

     

    But we all know that when that does inevitably happen, you will of course never hold yourself accountable for your claims of "fact" that you're spouting now, and you will never have the integrity or the honesty to admit that you were wrong. If you had a shred of that, you would instantly ban yourself when the product is shown to be a success, because of the torture you've put everyone on this board through with your incessant lies and trolling. 

  • Reply 45 of 147
    mac_128mac_128 Posts: 3,454member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Sacto Joe View Post



    Apple will sell every watch they make. Nobody knows what that number is, so this "analysis" is just pure speculation.



    And they will likely sell a very large number of additional wrist bands.

     

    I still don't know how that will work exactly -- the Sport watch supposedly comes with the Small and Large band. But the modern buckle will have to come packaged in 3 sizes, and Leather Loop will have to come packaged in 2 sizes. So that will cut into the total number of available watches on launch day, as well as all the different configurations. But I've no doubt even if a person's top choice isn't available, they'll take the second choice and buy the the band they wanted seperately.

  • Reply 46 of 147

    I actually found a black person on the Apple website, but he's presented in a blue T shirt as an Apple Store employee, not a user.  Come on Apple, drop the 'Apple Customer' stereotype, and be more representative of all races, and sexual orientations, not just Anglos and Asians.

    What an utterly moronic post. https://www.apple.com/pr/bios/lisa-jackson.html
  • Reply 47 of 147
    brlawyerbrlawyer Posts: 828member
    I predict that Apple will sell fewer than 10 million in the first year, sadly making it their first major failure since Steve Jobs returned to Apple in 1997.

    It will be the first failure under Tim Cook's watch.

    Well, Ben, it will be Cook's first failure because this is also his first product launch worth noting. Every other financial success Apple has had since 2011 is a result of either (i) SJ's direct creation or (ii) evolutionary releases of the former.

    I actually predict the AW will fare even worse after the initial adrenaline rush; bad UI, terrible physical design, pricing/model confusion à la Performas/Quadras/LCs and ridiculous battery life for a wearable thing.
  • Reply 48 of 147
    mstone wrote: »
     


    If Wikipedia is to be believed, the resolution on the 42mm is 312x390, at 302 PPI. Doing the math puts the screen at 1.65" diagonally.
    The 38mm is 272x340, at 290PPI. That figures out to a 1.5" display.

    The numbers are probably good, since devs would need to know the resolutions for apps.
    It is difficult to measure the diagonal of a rounded rectangle. See image. If for example I measured to the theoretical extended corners on the 42mm it would measure exactly 2".

    <img alt="" class="lightbox-enabled" data-id="57240" data-type="61" src="http://forums.appleinsider.com/content/type/61/id/57240/width/350/height/700/flags/LL" style="; width: 350px; height: 280px">

    Sorry about that I'm not very good with inches

    That's not a good way to measure the screen size. You're including a huge black margin which can't display anything. The actual usable screen is surprisingly small.
  • Reply 49 of 147
    mstonemstone Posts: 11,510member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by brlawyer View Post



    I actually predict the AW will fare even worse after the initial adrenaline rush...

    So when it sells out and has a 4 week back order delivery date, we can chalk it up to adrenaline rush?

  • Reply 50 of 147
    mstone wrote: »
    brlawyer wrote: »
    I actually predict the AW will fare even worse after the initial adrenaline rush...
    So when it sells out and has a 4 week back order delivery date, we can chalk it up to adrenaline rush?

    You can chalk it up to the fanboys, yes.
  • Reply 51 of 147
    mstonemstone Posts: 11,510member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Benjamin Frost View Post





    You can chalk it up to the fanboys, yes.

    Yes! There are only about 50 million of us, including the girls.

  • Reply 52 of 147

    I think analysts may be misjudging the size of the market for any brand of smart watch. For Apple, let's see the sales figures after the "early adopters" finish their shopping this month. I don't think the Apple Watch will be a significant mainstream hit because people will be content to continue using their iPhone as an everything device. Even the guy I know who works at my local Apple store said he's not going to buy the Apple Watch because his iPhone is all that he needs. I agree with him. In fact, I'm going into the Apple Store on April 10th not to check out the watch, but to get the gorgeous new MacBook.

  • Reply 53 of 147
    dsddsd Posts: 186member

    I'm going to wait until a left-handed model comes out.

  • Reply 54 of 147
    mstonemstone Posts: 11,510member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by dsd View Post

     

    I'm going to wait until a left-handed model comes out.


    Honest question: Has there ever been a left handed wristwatch?

  • Reply 55 of 147
    mr. memr. me Posts: 3,221member
    I predict that Apple will sell fewer than 10 million in the first year, sadly making it their first major failure since Steve Jobs returned to Apple in 1997.

    It will be the first failure under Tim Cook's watch.
    So say that 10 million ?Watch sales will make it Apple's first major failure since 1997? I had always assumed that the UK had an excellent education system. You should not have slept through your mathematics classes. The ?Watch is not a MacBook Air. MacBook Airs are sold on very thin margins. Each ?Watch--from the Sport to the Edition--will be sold at crazy margin. The 42 mm yellow gold Edition, for example, contains 69 grams of gold alloy. The price of gold today is slightly more than $38.00/gram. This means that the gold used to construct the 42 mm Edition costs $2622. Gold alloys are priced as though they are pure gold of equal weight. I estimate the internals cost about $50. Through in the intellectual property, bands, charging cables, packaging, and delivery--the cost of production of the 42 mm Edition may be as much as $3,000 each. However, each 42 mm Edition is priced at $15,000 per--a profit of $12,000 each and a markup of 400%. Neither aluminum [used in the ?Watch Sport] nor stainless steel [used in the ?Watch] is traded on the precious metals market. The ?Watch Sport probably has the smallest margin, but it is difficult to see how it can be less than 100% (or about $175 each). The SS ?Watch probably has a margin that rivals the Edition on a percentage basis.

    The bottom line is that the ?Watch will be a license for Apple to mint money. If Apple sells only 10 million ?Watches, then its profits on them will easily be in the neighborhood of $2 billion. We should all fail so badly.
  • Reply 56 of 147
    rf9rf9 Posts: 70member
    That's funny. You know it can be worn on either arm, right? The UI flips for the other arm.
  • Reply 57 of 147
    mstone wrote: »
    dsd wrote: »
     
    I'm going to wait until a left-handed model comes out.
    Honest question: Has there ever been a left handed wristwatch?

    All normal watches are left and right-handed because you don't need to fiddle with them, you just look at them.
  • Reply 58 of 147
    rf9rf9 Posts: 70member
    I have to bookmark this thread so I can come back in a year and re-read all of the doom predictions after this sells 20 million.
  • Reply 59 of 147
    rf9rf9 Posts: 70member
    All normal watches are left and right-handed because you don't need to fiddle with them, you just look at them.
    The Apple watch can be worn on the right arm too. Reverse the bands and the UI flips. The only difference is that the button is above the crown instead of below.
  • Reply 60 of 147
    mr. me wrote: »
    I predict that Apple will sell fewer than 10 million in the first year, sadly making it their first major failure since Steve Jobs returned to Apple in 1997.

    It will be the first failure under Tim Cook's watch.
    So say that 10 million ?Watch sales will make it Apple's first major failure since 1997? I had always assumed that the UK had an excellent education system. You should not have slept through your mathematics classes. The ?Watch is not a MacBook Air. MacBook Airs are sold on very thin margins. Each ?Watch--from the Sport to the Edition--will be sold at crazy margin. The 42 mm yellow gold Edition, for example, contains 69 grams of gold alloy. The price of gold today is slightly more than $38.00/gram. This means that the gold used to construct the 42 mm Edition costs $2622. Gold alloys are priced as though they are pure gold of equal weight. I estimate the internals cost about $50. Through in the intellectual property, bands, charging cables, packaging, and delivery--the cost of production of the 42 mm Edition may be as much as $3,000 each. However, each 42 mm Edition is priced at $15,000 per--a profit of $12,000 each and a markup of 400%. Neither aluminum [used in the ?Watch Sport] nor stainless steel [used in the ?Watch] is traded on the precious metals market. The ?Watch Sport probably has the smallest margin, but it is difficult to see how it can be less than 100% (or about $175 each). The SS ?Watch probably has a margin that rivals the Edition on a percentage basis.

    The bottom line is that the ?Watch will be a license for Apple to mint money. If Apple sells only 10 million ?Watches, then its profits on them will easily be in the neighborhood of $2 billion. We should all fail so badly.

    If I slept through my maths classes, then you learnt yours on another planet.

    The 42mm Edition is $12,000, not $15,000. Also, I didn't decree the watch a failure at 10 million sales but fewer than 10 million.

    Perhaps you were nodding off in your reading classes, for which I forgive you.
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