The first iteration of Apple Watch is for early adopters and those who are not sensitive to price. The second and third iterations will be technologically more advanced and cater to a wider variety of price points. Not hard to comprehend.
Actually, I'm a developer so i know something about the watch. It's almost completely useless unless it's tethered to an iPhone. So, let's break it down since you're a slow learner, ok?
1. It will cost $350++
2. It doesn't really do much without the iPhone being nearby besides tell time as it's just a mini dumb terminal. All apps etc are run off the iPhone and then transmitted to the watch. That means only iPhone users are its initial customer base.
3. There are no bio sensors on this watch beside being able to pickup your heartbeat. It can't even do that reliably.
4. Few killer apps at launch
5. It needs to be charged everyday. I can't even stand charging my iPhone every OTHER day, let alone a watch which is suppose to be set and forget. Any long time watch wearer would tell you that they wouldn't want to wear something that needs that much maintenance.
6. Did I mention that you need to pay $350+++ for all this?
Cook knows this already. He knows that it's a dud. Why do you think management has spent so much time selling the watch before it's even out? In Apple's history since Jobs 2nd arrival, they have NEVER had a marketing blitz as large as the Apple Watch. Every member of the senior management team has given tons of interviews about it. There are tons of magazine spreads. Think about that for a moment. Why do you think that is??? Great products practically sells itself. It requires very little convincing for you to stand in long lines and shell out your very hard earned money. So why would Apple all of a sudden change their strategy when launching a new product? What's changed? I'll let you draw your own conclusions.
1. Close, but nope.
2. Not even close. Axiomatically false. Duh-doy, but not for the reasons you state.
3. Nope. Unknowable.
4. Only need one, but still unknowable before launch, so, Nope.
5. And dumb phone owners who first considered a smartphone also didn't want to go from charging a couple times a week to every day, but culture changes quickly if the technology brings a certain utility that people deem beneficial.
6. Yes, you will pay over $350 for the total purchase with taxes/VAT, but Ballmer said something very similar about the iPhone and yet its ASP keeps going up.
Cook called it a dud? Sure¡ Apple has always "sold" their new product categories before they out. It's called business. Apple is a larger company now servicing more people than ever so there will likely be more money spent, and since it steps firmly into the fashion market as a requisite of being a wearable that isn't unexpected, but you're a nut if you think Apple hasn't done the same sort of multi-step prep for previous new product categories.
PS: You want to tell us how the iPhone will fail because it has no physical keyboard, no '3G', and Apple had to give us 6 months lead, excessive advertising and two special events demos? :rolleyes:
2. Not even close. Axiomatically false. Duh-doy, but not for the reasons you state.
3. Nope. Unknowable.
4. Only need one, but still unknowable before launch, so, Nope.
5. And dumb phone owners who first considered a smartphone also didn't want to go from charging a couple times a week to every day, but culture changes quickly if the technology brings a certain utility that people deem beneficial.
6. Yes, you will pay over $350 for the total purchase with taxes/VAT, but Ballmer said something very similar about the iPhone and yet its ASP keeps going up.
Cook called it a dud? Sure¡ Apple has always "sold" their new product categories before they out. It's called business. Apple is a larger company now servicing more people than ever so there will likely be more money spent, and since it steps firmly into the fashion market as a requisite of being a wearable that isn't unexpected, but you're a nut if you think Apple hasn't done the same sort of multi-step prep for previous new product categories.
PS: You want to tell us how the iPhone will fail because it has no physical keyboard, no '3G', and Apple had to give us 6 months lead, excessive advertising and two special events demos?
From your reasoning I can tell you haven't been following Apple for long. Just about every one of Apple's products, with the exception of the original iPod, Apple TV and the iPad, were immediate hits before launch. I'll repeat so that this sinks in. Apple's products have been immediate hits when they were unveiled by Jobs on stage even before their release. That is, the anticipation by consumers in getting their hands on one was palpable between unveiling and launch day. People could NOT wait...you can see the frenzy online. Do you see that for the watch? The only thing I've seen is consumers saying meh...and Apple senior management hyping the hell out of it by saying that it's the best thing since slice bread. Its like watching them trying to beat a dead horse.
Most people I talk to aren't even aware that Apple is making a watch. The reason many folks buy iphones because they need something to communicate with. A lot of folks already think an iphone is too expensive unless it is $199 or less.
If you're asking avg people to splurge $399 on something I don't think a phone would be it. Perhaps at $149 but not at $399.
The functionality is too limited to justify the pricetag. Sure there are people with $1k-20k watches but that's for the bling factor and not that many people around that uses it for function.
Prediction: massive markdowns in January.
$299 after 6 months.
(1) Apparently a lot of folks think $199 and up is not too expensive for an iPhone. ASPs have actually gone up, as people have opted for more memory and/or the larger-screened iPhone 6 Plus. Apple doesn't need everybody to get an iPhone to be successful. Clearly, they don't even need a majority of people to get iPhones to be successful. So whatever point you tried to make with respect to the pricing of the iPhone is not really resonating with me.
(2) People with $20K watches get them so they can be seen wearing $20K watches, so that others will know they can afford $20K watches. The fact that an Apple Watch has a fleeting electronic life, as it moves rapidly towards obsolescence, has been posed as an issue. But I think this fact may drive a surprise upside: if folks are getting $20K watches just to be ostentatious, then imagine how ostentatious it is to be seen wearing a watch that everyone knows will be tossed or given away in a year or so. Imagine buying another one. You may be surprised how many people can afford to do this and are also vain enough to do so. This is going to be a very small fraction of sales, but at over $9000 profit per unit (for the $10K minimum, more depending on selected band) Apple is going to make a lot of bank here. I don't think analysts are properly modeling for this.
(3) I can't make sense of your markdown date predictions. You mention January (8 months away from launch) but then also mention a markdown at 6 months. I'm not trying to be snarky, here, because I do think that it is not outside the realm of possibility that Apple won't get the pricing just right from the very beginning. They had to mess with pricing and sales model of the earliest iPhones too.
There is a critical flaw in your analysis. During the final months of his life, Steve Jobs worked closely with Apple personnel to map out product plans for the five (5) years to follow. This means that the ?Watch was conceived and largely developed on Jobs's watch. Pardon the pun.
Yea, and I'm sure he told them not to bring it out until they have the killer feature/s worked out. Never bring a new product to market before its ready!
We can safely predict that wearables will take over from smartphones in the long term. Long term tech trends are easier to predict than short term ones. But whether this particular product at this particular time will be successful, I don't think anyone knows.
The first sign will be when the preorders go live on the 10th, how long it takes to sell out.
I actually disagree that wearables will take over for smartphones in the long term. I ultimately see each having unique capabilities that the other can't provide, and many folks will own both. That's my long term vision.
I actually disagree that wearables will take over for smartphones in the long term. I ultimately see each having unique capabilities that the other can't provide, and many folks will own both. That's my long term vision.
From your reasoning I can tell you haven't been following Apple for long. Just about every one of Apple's products, with the exception of the original iPod, Apple TV and the iPad, were immediate hits before launch. I'll repeat so that this sinks in. Apple's products have been immediate hits when they were unveiled by Jobs on stage even before their release. That is, the anticipation by consumers in getting their hands on one was palpable between unveiling and launch day. People could NOT wait...you can see the frenzy online. Do you see that for the watch? The only thing I've seen is consumers saying meh...and Apple senior management hyping the hell out of it by saying that it's the best thing since slice bread. Its like watching them trying to beat a dead horse.
1) You just excluded every major product category since Jobs return except the iPhone. Well done¡
2) Plenty of complaints for every product category launch from Apple and yet they still succeed, but I'm certain yiu won't acknowldge it after its proved a success.
3) I'd wager ?Watch will beat the unit sales of every previous major Apple product launch for first year sales, sans the iPad, which is the world's fastest selling CE.
There is a critical flaw in your analysis. During the final months of his life, Steve Jobs worked closely with Apple personnel to map out product plans for the five (5) years to follow. This means that the ?Watch was conceived and largely developed on Jobs's watch. Pardon the pun.
And there is a critical flaw in your conclusion. While I do believe that Steve worked closely with his team to map out product plans, your conclusion assumes that he demanded they would neither deviate from that plan nor come up with anything on their own. It also assumes that after his passing, that they are complying with such a demand.
I highly doubt both. Steve did not demand that they stick only to the plan, and they wouldn't do so if he had.
It seems to make much more sense that Steve and team performed thought experiments and product planning but that it was understood that these were helpful guidelines, with the understanding that Apple (minus Steve) was free to modify as needed. Never mind the fact that Steve's admonition was "never ask what I would have done". ANybody that thinks Steve would be so stupid is apparently not the brightest bulb in the box themselves.
I actually disagree that wearables will take over for smartphones in the long term. I ultimately see each having unique capabilities that the other can't provide, and many folks will own both. That's my long term vision.
I think it's foolish to assume the goal is to reach a smartphone the way it's foolish to assume the goal of the tablet is to replace the smartphone or smartphone to replace the PC.
The wrist-worn wearable has a unique opportunity and its clear Apple is the first to understand how a wearable device will have to be marketed due to the high level of personalization required.
The wearable market will be huge, and we know this because technology has reached a point where this is now feasible and because the watch market is still a multibillion dollar industry despite many have stopped wearing the watch due to its limited capabilities now copied my nearly all CE around us.
3) I'd wager ?Watch will beat the unit sales of every previous major Apple product launch for first year sales, sans the iPad, which is the world's fastest selling CE.
So more than 15M Apple Watches between now and the end of December then.
EDIT: Just noted you excluded the iPad first year sales. Sorry! With that said what new product launches from the past 7 or 8 years are you including? I wasn't sure which ones you considered to be new lines.
I think it's foolish to assume the goal is to reach a smartphone the way it's foolish to assume the goal of the tablet is to replace the smartphone or smartphone to replace the PC.
The wrist-worn wearable has a unique opportunity and its clear Apple is the first to understand how a wearable device will have to be marketed due to the high level of personalization required.
The wearable market will be huge, and we know this because technology has reached a point where this is now feasible and because the watch market is still a multibillion dollar industry despite many have stopped wearing the watch due to its limited capabilities now copied my nearly all CE around us.
Consistent with my viewpoint, and I totally agree. My only question is how long it takes for the wearable market to reach even half of its potential.
So more than 15M Apple Watches between now and the end of December then.
EDIT: Just noted you excluded the iPad first year sales. Sorry! With that said what new product launches from the past 7 or 8 years are you including? I wasn't sure which ones you considered to be new lines.
Could easily reach 15M Apple Watches by end of Dec. This will make a great Xmas gift, and people will buy a bunch even while the rumor mills are churning out "details" about the Apple Watch 2 that is only a few months away.
Now you're saying they have unique capabilities not possible with smartphones. How quickly you change your tune.
No tune changed that I can see.
To be able to monitor blood pressure and heart rate constantly would be a killer feature for sure. That would differentiate from the iPhone well, not to mention all kinds of other health variables like body fat, glucose levels, etc. As it is, the 'killer' feature I see touted from Cook is notifications, which is not compelling for most people.
So more than 15M Apple Watches between now and the end of December then.
EDIT: Just noted you excluded the iPad first year sales. Sorry! With that said what new product launches from the past 7 or 8 years are you including? I wasn't sure which ones you considered to be new lines.
The end of December isnt a full quarters. We use that because we can use the first four quarters of sales for most Apple products.
When a wearable gives you a virtual iPad in front of you with a virtual tactile keyboard, and a virtual phone which you can hold to your ear, then it can replace the iPhone and iPad. Anything requiring one to focus one's vision on the wrist, like the Apple Watch, is doomed to fail.
I don't think that day will arrive for a very long time, if ever.
Could easily reach 15M Apple Watches by end of Dec. This will make a great Xmas gift, and people will buy a bunch even while the rumor mills are churning out "details" about the Apple Watch 2 that is only a few months away.
I'm highly doubtful of that because 1) it is technically an accessory device even though designed to also use independently, and 2) it would best the iPad by a large margin to hit 15 MM units in 8 months when it took the iPad a full year to do 14.4 MM.
When a wearable gives you a virtual iPad in front of you with a virtual tactile keyboard, and a virtual phone which you can hold to your ear, then it can replace the iPhone and iPad. Anything requiring one to focus one's vision on the wrist, like the Apple Watch, is doomed to fail.
I don't think that day will arrive for a very long time, if ever.
I agree with your first and second sentences.
I think your third and fourth are naive.
For a good half of the year, my wrist is covered up by a sleeve due to the climate. When I regularly wore a watch, I had to keep pulling back the sleeve to see the time. This would get old quickly with the Apple Watch. And I didn't need to flick my arm up to turn it on! Even if Apple eventually include the sensors that count, like blood pressure, I would prefer to see the data on my iPhone and iPad, not my wrist. I'd prefer a simple band with no display or a traditional watch that tells the time with sensors tucked underneath. I don't want to be constantly looking at my watch for information. It's just not an optimum medium for it compared to the current iDevices or a Mac for that matter.
Comments
1. Close, but nope.
2. Not even close. Axiomatically false. Duh-doy, but not for the reasons you state.
3. Nope. Unknowable.
4. Only need one, but still unknowable before launch, so, Nope.
5. And dumb phone owners who first considered a smartphone also didn't want to go from charging a couple times a week to every day, but culture changes quickly if the technology brings a certain utility that people deem beneficial.
6. Yes, you will pay over $350 for the total purchase with taxes/VAT, but Ballmer said something very similar about the iPhone and yet its ASP keeps going up.
Cook called it a dud? Sure¡ Apple has always "sold" their new product categories before they out. It's called business. Apple is a larger company now servicing more people than ever so there will likely be more money spent, and since it steps firmly into the fashion market as a requisite of being a wearable that isn't unexpected, but you're a nut if you think Apple hasn't done the same sort of multi-step prep for previous new product categories.
PS: You want to tell us how the iPhone will fail because it has no physical keyboard, no '3G', and Apple had to give us 6 months lead, excessive advertising and two special events demos? :rolleyes:
1. Close, but nope.
2. Not even close. Axiomatically false. Duh-doy, but not for the reasons you state.
3. Nope. Unknowable.
4. Only need one, but still unknowable before launch, so, Nope.
5. And dumb phone owners who first considered a smartphone also didn't want to go from charging a couple times a week to every day, but culture changes quickly if the technology brings a certain utility that people deem beneficial.
6. Yes, you will pay over $350 for the total purchase with taxes/VAT, but Ballmer said something very similar about the iPhone and yet its ASP keeps going up.
Cook called it a dud? Sure¡ Apple has always "sold" their new product categories before they out. It's called business. Apple is a larger company now servicing more people than ever so there will likely be more money spent, and since it steps firmly into the fashion market as a requisite of being a wearable that isn't unexpected, but you're a nut if you think Apple hasn't done the same sort of multi-step prep for previous new product categories.
PS: You want to tell us how the iPhone will fail because it has no physical keyboard, no '3G', and Apple had to give us 6 months lead, excessive advertising and two special events demos?
From your reasoning I can tell you haven't been following Apple for long. Just about every one of Apple's products, with the exception of the original iPod, Apple TV and the iPad, were immediate hits before launch. I'll repeat so that this sinks in. Apple's products have been immediate hits when they were unveiled by Jobs on stage even before their release. That is, the anticipation by consumers in getting their hands on one was palpable between unveiling and launch day. People could NOT wait...you can see the frenzy online. Do you see that for the watch? The only thing I've seen is consumers saying meh...and Apple senior management hyping the hell out of it by saying that it's the best thing since slice bread. Its like watching them trying to beat a dead horse.
Most people I talk to aren't even aware that Apple is making a watch. The reason many folks buy iphones because they need something to communicate with. A lot of folks already think an iphone is too expensive unless it is $199 or less.
If you're asking avg people to splurge $399 on something I don't think a phone would be it. Perhaps at $149 but not at $399.
The functionality is too limited to justify the pricetag. Sure there are people with $1k-20k watches but that's for the bling factor and not that many people around that uses it for function.
Prediction: massive markdowns in January.
$299 after 6 months.
(1) Apparently a lot of folks think $199 and up is not too expensive for an iPhone. ASPs have actually gone up, as people have opted for more memory and/or the larger-screened iPhone 6 Plus. Apple doesn't need everybody to get an iPhone to be successful. Clearly, they don't even need a majority of people to get iPhones to be successful. So whatever point you tried to make with respect to the pricing of the iPhone is not really resonating with me.
(2) People with $20K watches get them so they can be seen wearing $20K watches, so that others will know they can afford $20K watches. The fact that an Apple Watch has a fleeting electronic life, as it moves rapidly towards obsolescence, has been posed as an issue. But I think this fact may drive a surprise upside: if folks are getting $20K watches just to be ostentatious, then imagine how ostentatious it is to be seen wearing a watch that everyone knows will be tossed or given away in a year or so. Imagine buying another one. You may be surprised how many people can afford to do this and are also vain enough to do so. This is going to be a very small fraction of sales, but at over $9000 profit per unit (for the $10K minimum, more depending on selected band) Apple is going to make a lot of bank here. I don't think analysts are properly modeling for this.
(3) I can't make sense of your markdown date predictions. You mention January (8 months away from launch) but then also mention a markdown at 6 months. I'm not trying to be snarky, here, because I do think that it is not outside the realm of possibility that Apple won't get the pricing just right from the very beginning. They had to mess with pricing and sales model of the earliest iPhones too.
There is a critical flaw in your analysis. During the final months of his life, Steve Jobs worked closely with Apple personnel to map out product plans for the five (5) years to follow. This means that the ?Watch was conceived and largely developed on Jobs's watch. Pardon the pun.
Yea, and I'm sure he told them not to bring it out until they have the killer feature/s worked out. Never bring a new product to market before its ready!
We can safely predict that wearables will take over from smartphones in the long term. Long term tech trends are easier to predict than short term ones. But whether this particular product at this particular time will be successful, I don't think anyone knows.
The first sign will be when the preorders go live on the 10th, how long it takes to sell out.
I actually disagree that wearables will take over for smartphones in the long term. I ultimately see each having unique capabilities that the other can't provide, and many folks will own both. That's my long term vision.
I actually disagree that wearables will take over for smartphones in the long term. I ultimately see each having unique capabilities that the other can't provide, and many folks will own both. That's my long term vision.
+1
1) You just excluded every major product category since Jobs return except the iPhone. Well done¡
2) Plenty of complaints for every product category launch from Apple and yet they still succeed, but I'm certain yiu won't acknowldge it after its proved a success.
3) I'd wager ?Watch will beat the unit sales of every previous major Apple product launch for first year sales, sans the iPad, which is the world's fastest selling CE.
There is a critical flaw in your analysis. During the final months of his life, Steve Jobs worked closely with Apple personnel to map out product plans for the five (5) years to follow. This means that the ?Watch was conceived and largely developed on Jobs's watch. Pardon the pun.
And there is a critical flaw in your conclusion. While I do believe that Steve worked closely with his team to map out product plans, your conclusion assumes that he demanded they would neither deviate from that plan nor come up with anything on their own. It also assumes that after his passing, that they are complying with such a demand.
I highly doubt both. Steve did not demand that they stick only to the plan, and they wouldn't do so if he had.
It seems to make much more sense that Steve and team performed thought experiments and product planning but that it was understood that these were helpful guidelines, with the understanding that Apple (minus Steve) was free to modify as needed. Never mind the fact that Steve's admonition was "never ask what I would have done". ANybody that thinks Steve would be so stupid is apparently not the brightest bulb in the box themselves.
Now you're saying they have unique capabilities not possible with smartphones. How quickly you change your tune.
I think it's foolish to assume the goal is to reach a smartphone the way it's foolish to assume the goal of the tablet is to replace the smartphone or smartphone to replace the PC.
The wrist-worn wearable has a unique opportunity and its clear Apple is the first to understand how a wearable device will have to be marketed due to the high level of personalization required.
The wearable market will be huge, and we know this because technology has reached a point where this is now feasible and because the watch market is still a multibillion dollar industry despite many have stopped wearing the watch due to its limited capabilities now copied my nearly all CE around us.
EDIT: Just noted you excluded the iPad first year sales. Sorry! With that said what new product launches from the past 7 or 8 years are you including? I wasn't sure which ones you considered to be new lines.
Now you're saying they have unique capabilities not possible with smartphones. How quickly you change your tune.
Well, maybe he was concurring with my assertion that this is the long term view but not necessarily the situation today, at first launch.
I think it's foolish to assume the goal is to reach a smartphone the way it's foolish to assume the goal of the tablet is to replace the smartphone or smartphone to replace the PC.
The wrist-worn wearable has a unique opportunity and its clear Apple is the first to understand how a wearable device will have to be marketed due to the high level of personalization required.
The wearable market will be huge, and we know this because technology has reached a point where this is now feasible and because the watch market is still a multibillion dollar industry despite many have stopped wearing the watch due to its limited capabilities now copied my nearly all CE around us.
Consistent with my viewpoint, and I totally agree. My only question is how long it takes for the wearable market to reach even half of its potential.
So more than 15M Apple Watches between now and the end of December then.
EDIT: Just noted you excluded the iPad first year sales. Sorry! With that said what new product launches from the past 7 or 8 years are you including? I wasn't sure which ones you considered to be new lines.
Could easily reach 15M Apple Watches by end of Dec. This will make a great Xmas gift, and people will buy a bunch even while the rumor mills are churning out "details" about the Apple Watch 2 that is only a few months away.
No tune changed that I can see.
To be able to monitor blood pressure and heart rate constantly would be a killer feature for sure. That would differentiate from the iPhone well, not to mention all kinds of other health variables like body fat, glucose levels, etc. As it is, the 'killer' feature I see touted from Cook is notifications, which is not compelling for most people.
The end of December isnt a full quarters. We use that because we can use the first four quarters of sales for most Apple products.
He made no comment about this product not being what he wants it to be in rev 0. He clearly stated it's an abject failure.
I don't think that's a safe prediction at all.
When a wearable gives you a virtual iPad in front of you with a virtual tactile keyboard, and a virtual phone which you can hold to your ear, then it can replace the iPhone and iPad. Anything requiring one to focus one's vision on the wrist, like the Apple Watch, is doomed to fail.
I don't think that day will arrive for a very long time, if ever.
I agree with your first and second sentences.
I think your third and fourth are naive.
I'm highly doubtful of that because 1) it is technically an accessory device even though designed to also use independently, and 2) it would best the iPad by a large margin to hit 15 MM units in 8 months when it took the iPad a full year to do 14.4 MM.
For a good half of the year, my wrist is covered up by a sleeve due to the climate. When I regularly wore a watch, I had to keep pulling back the sleeve to see the time. This would get old quickly with the Apple Watch. And I didn't need to flick my arm up to turn it on! Even if Apple eventually include the sensors that count, like blood pressure, I would prefer to see the data on my iPhone and iPad, not my wrist. I'd prefer a simple band with no display or a traditional watch that tells the time with sensors tucked underneath. I don't want to be constantly looking at my watch for information. It's just not an optimum medium for it compared to the current iDevices or a Mac for that matter.
Another nail in its coffin, I'm afraid.