Initial Apple Watch stock dries up in minutes, shipping times quickly jump to 4-6 weeks

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  • Reply 21 of 362
    tgr1tgr1 Posts: 33member
    eightzero wrote: »
    I ordered 2 about 7 hours after it went live. Shows delivery in June. I think it possible Apple will use the pre-order data to tweak their supply chain, and the dates will slowly move sooner. I wouldn't be surprised if 4-6 weeks is pretty much the norm. If the wait times stay at 3 months or more...well...there's likely gonna be some splainin' to do.

    Also seems a number of people ordered different models and will cancel once they get a chance to try on. That will also move things up.

    I own a Pebble now and am really looking to my Apple Watch. So happy will be getting delivery in the first wave.
  • Reply 22 of 362
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,516member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

    how do you know this?


    Because I was on immediately and saw the 4-6 week ship time.  Many hours later, it was still 4-6 weeks.

  • Reply 23 of 362
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,516member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

     



    Unless there were production issues, of course. I am not saying there were, but that might be a factor.


    It is pretty clear to me that supply was severely constrained from the get-go.  Whether it was due to production issues or whether this is a method to figure out how many of each SKU to build, I don't know.  But people on here thinking that the ship times grew to this state are incorrect. I was there immediately and observed long ship times for several of the models, and those times remain unchanged even today.  

     

    Don't get me wrong, I believe that demand is also high, but these long ship times are the result of a supply shortage.

  • Reply 24 of 362
    cash907cash907 Posts: 893member
    jungmark wrote: »
    "No lines = doom!" - clueless analysts

    Said no one, anywhere.
  • Reply 25 of 362
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,516member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by ECats View Post

     

     

    With popular models selling out online in less than 30 minutes, queuing would guarantee missing out on a launch day delivery. For shoppers to stand a chance they'd have to buy online at home, thus the queues weren't ever going to be massive.

     

    Savvy shoppers knew one couldn't pre-order in store; which is something that Apple announced because it realised that demand was too large and anyone who waited for a try-on session would end up with a several-month long shipping delay, that would be a huge let down after having just handled the device.

     

    The ship dates are now getting extreme, certain edition models now showing August deliveries, and some models simply being listed as "Sold Out" in China.

     

    If analysts are thinking this is a bad launch, they need to find a new job.


     

    If by "sold out", you mean ship date estimate of 4-6 weeks, then I can confirm to you that at least one of the "popular models" was "sold out" in less than 30 seconds (not 30 minutes) which is how long it took me to get on and through to the watch I think that I want.  (If I don't like it, or want a different band later, I'll either sell it on Craigslist/eBay or go into the Apple Store and return it or buy a new band (whatever is appropriate).

     

    This is indicative of a severe supply shortage, for whatever reason, I don't know.  But if Dickprinter thinks this is one of those situations where Apple plans for undersupply as a means of hyping the product, I think that that would be overdone.  Apple wouldn't be so stupid as to have no product to sell for 2 months right from the start.  No.  This was a supply shortage, plain and simple.

     

    I do believe that demand is also very high, but it is impossible to measure how high when your supply is so constrained.

  • Reply 26 of 362
    cpsrocpsro Posts: 3,042member

    So, what has been the holdup in production? The Watch is janky enough that I have zero interest in waiting weeks for delivery.

  • Reply 27 of 362
    mac_128mac_128 Posts: 3,454member
    thompr wrote: »
    It is pretty clear to me that supply was severely constrained from the get-go.  Whether it was due to production issues or whether this is a method to figure out how many of each SKU to build, I don't know.  But people on here thinking that the ship times grew to this state are incorrect. I was there immediately and observed long ship times for several of the models, and those times remain unchanged even today.  

    Don't get me wrong, I believe that demand is also high, but these long ship times are the result of a supply shortage.
    I agree. Apple is essentially a build to order company that maintains a very limited supply of stock on hand. I think they had a limited amount of stock ready to ship, all based on people favoriting their watches online. But the vast majority ordered today will likely need to be assembled. If Appe was transparent about this and advertised BTO, with the actual manufacturing to doorstep estimate, this frenzy today would have been completely avoided.
  • Reply 28 of 362
    ottobot wrote: »
    Here is an odd thing. When I placed my order via my iPhone using my standard Apple ID, the Apple Store App, and Apple Pay, the receipt was sent to my work email address and included my work phone number in the receipt. That email address and phone number are not linked to my Apple ID or Apple Pay at all. I have triple checked my account and my personal information is stored in Apple's systems. How could that have switched?

    I had a similar issue. I checked out with ApplePay using the iPhone Apple Store App. The billing address defaulted to my work address clearly pulled in from my contacts on the phone I think. I never gave Apple my work address. Strange
  • Reply 29 of 362
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,516member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

    How do you know thousands of people did not beat you by a second or two?


    If it only takes thousands to slip the date all the way from 2 weeks to 4-6 weeks, then that would be consistent with the shortage I am describing.  For whatever reason, millions of watches were not built in advance and almost ready for shipment to meet the 24th date.  The watches that are 4-6 weeks out haven't even been manufactured yet, and from what I could see when I got online last night, that was true of most models almost immediately.  Even if some thousands of people swiped some up before I saw these, it still points to low supply.

     

    I'm not suggesting this was necessarily a mistake on Apple's part.  I kind of like RadarTheKat's hypothesis that Apple doesn't really know yet how many of each SKU to make, so they're doing this online soft-launch to figure that out.

  • Reply 30 of 362
    dr millmossdr millmoss Posts: 5,403member

    I ordered a 42mm with the Milanese Loop within two minutes of the store coming back up (about two minutes later than announced). Delivers 4/24 to 5/8 with standard shipping. Glad I stayed up late, as I want to have some time with it before a vacation abroad in mid-June.

  • Reply 31 of 362
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,516member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

    30 seconds is not fast enough.  Probably tens of thousands of people or even bots beat you to the punch.

     

    Dickprinter....apt name for a person who thinks Apple needs to do tricks to sell their product and build hype.


    I doubt that "tens of thousands" beat my wife to the punch of purchasing a $1000 model.  

     

    But even if tens of thousands beat me to the punch when I purchased the popular space gray ?Watch Sport with black band, it would still support my interpretation that Apple did not significantly ramp up manufacturing into this event.  They are building-to-order because they didn't know how many of each to make.

  • Reply 32 of 362
    dr millmossdr millmoss Posts: 5,403member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by thompr View Post

     

    If it only takes thousands to slip the date all the way from 2 weeks to 4-6 weeks, then that would be consistent with the shortage I am describing.  For whatever reason, millions of watches were not built in advance and almost ready for shipment to meet the 24th date.  The watches that are 4-6 weeks out haven't even been manufactured yet, and from what I could see when I got online last night, that was true of most models almost immediately.  Even if some thousands of people swiped some up before I saw these, it still points to low supply.

     

    I'm not suggesting this was necessarily a mistake on Apple's part.  I kind of like RadarTheKat's hypothesis that Apple doesn't really know yet how many of each SKU to make, so they're doing this online soft-launch to figure that out.




    How many thousands do you assume were available for 4-24 shipping? If it was only 20,000 per model, then that's something like 500,000 units. I could easily see them processing that many preorders in an hour or so.

  • Reply 33 of 362
    eightzeroeightzero Posts: 2,747member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

     



    How many thousands do you assume were available for 4-24 shipping? If it was only 20,000 per model, then that's something like 500,000 units. I could easily see them processing that many preorders in an hour or so.


    Building millions of anything is a herculean task, but Apple did rather play this close to the vest. IIRC, there is a shareholder earnings call on like 4/27. It will be interesting to hear Tim's comments. They did specifically say that they would not report Apple Watch sales or shipments separately. Probably many reasons for that, not the least of which is that information like that is valuable for many things. Apple is rather famous for not giving away information that has value for free.

     

    Seems clear to me Apple really is planning for the long term with this product. Cool.

  • Reply 34 of 362
    Nice marketing Apple Inc.! The last 3 years, every new product comes with a huge delay time to create a buzz! Classic!
  • Reply 35 of 362
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,516member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

    AppleWatch comes in 22 models.  Of course they won't build million of each model before they get data


    I know this sog.  

     

    But I doubt that Apple even had 1 million total of all models/types/sizes based on the observation that most models were at 4-6 weeks almost immediately.  Even if 10,000 people hit many of the more popular models almost right away to cause the slippage to 4-6 weeks, it wouldn't add up to 1 million.  (You can't just multiply 10,000 by the number of all models/types/sizes.  Many will be far less popular and wouldn't even get 100 orders in the first few minutes.)

     

    I think Apple received a shit-ton of orders, regardless.  Ship times now into June are pretty telling.

     

    All I'm really saying is that I don't think the manufacturing of ?Watch has been ramped up very high yet.  Hopefully Apple can ramp it quickly to satisfy the demand, and hopefully the demand will not subside significantly when us extreme fanbois are sated.

     

    Thompson

  • Reply 36 of 362
    iqatedoiqatedo Posts: 1,761member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by thompr View Post

     

    Same here.

     

    I'm not believing that it was crushing demand that caused the delayed shipping for certain models.  I mean, sure, maybe the demand was very high.  But I know for a fact that the model I purchased started out at 4-6 weeks from the get-go, and it never changed from there.  My interpretation...

     

    Apple either had a hard time ramping up all models for launch day, or as someone else suggested, they are starting out with a build-to-order model because they don't know how many of each SKU to start with until they see the tendencies.

     

    Thompson




    I suspect that you are correct in this. Delivery date probably depends on model and location. I was on very quickly. Delivery about 3 hours later was quoted as beginning in June.

  • Reply 37 of 362
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,516member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by cicconegreek View Post



    Nice marketing Apple Inc.! The last 3 years, every new product comes with a huge delay time to create a buzz! Classic!

    This delay is too long to be just a buzz-creating stunt.  They could have achieved the same buzz at 4-6 weeks and not go into June.  This is a true supply/demand imbalance, for whatever reason.

     

    And the last iPhone launch was crazy huge, in all kinds of unprecedented ways.  To suggest that it could have been even more huge if Apple hadn't been intent on pulling a marketing stunt by constraining supply is to under-appreciate the magnitude of what they did to supply what they did.  Ten million in 3 days?  Are you kidding me?  Should they have been able to easily build, ship, and activate 15 million?  20 million?  What's your number to believe that Apple did the best they bloody-well could?

  • Reply 38 of 362
    iqatedoiqatedo Posts: 1,761member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cicconegreek View Post



    Nice marketing Apple Inc.! The last 3 years, every new product comes with a huge delay time to create a buzz! Classic!

     

    Nice trolling @cicconegreek! The last 3 years, every troll claimed every new product comes with a huge delay time to create a buzz! Classic!

  • Reply 39 of 362
    dr millmossdr millmoss Posts: 5,403member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by eightzero View Post

     

    Building millions of anything is a herculean task, but Apple did rather play this close to the vest. IIRC, there is a shareholder earnings call on like 4/27. It will be interesting to hear Tim's comments. They did specifically say that they would not report Apple Watch sales or shipments separately. Probably many reasons for that, not the least of which is that information like that is valuable for many things. Apple is rather famous for not giving away information that has value for free.

     

    Seems clear to me Apple really is planning for the long term with this product. Cool.




    They always play it close, though as you say, it will be interesting to see if they announce any numbers, either early next week or at the earning call. I could write Tim's script right now: "We are incredibly thrilled by the fantastic response to Apple Watch."

  • Reply 40 of 362
    cm477cm477 Posts: 95member

    Space gray & Black, 42 mm: June delivery. I was kicking myself for forgetting to order it as soon as orders went live and was going to abandon the purchase this morning. But then I read the other posts here, and realized that even those who ordered this model right away had June deliveries. I guess I can look for alternative sources in the meantime. So I guess the speculation begins: huge demand or is Apple managing the supply closely? 

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