Nearly all Apple Watch retail try-ons are resulting in preorders, Cowen says

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  • Reply 41 of 112
    See how crap that Rolex watch is.....can't even display correct time. Apple watch has 10:09 and Rolex 12:04
    (Before anyone States obvious that the Apple watch is a demo unit and therefore the time is fixed to 10:09.)
    But damn that Rolex looks likes a fossil compared to Apple Watch. I preordered mine but like most people I'll only get it in June. Fingers crossed that's only and estimate and it arrives in May. Wishful thinking right?????
  • Reply 42 of 112

    Re: Is this guy brain dead?  By sog35.

     

    No, he's referrering to the average price of all units sold.  He suspects the sales numbers will skew even more towards the sport model.

     

    He is not assuming the price of an individual unit will go down.

  • Reply 43 of 112
    atlappleatlapple Posts: 496member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

    Agree.  Can't imagine someone buying a Rolex for 10x more money after looking at that picture.  The Watch makes a Rolex look like a relic from the past.




    Unless someone is looking to buy the limited edition the demographic buying the sport version which appears to be the most popular right now isn't looking to by a Rolex. 

     

    Thats like saying I can't imagine someone buying a BMW i8 coupe at 10x the price of a Honda Civic. 

     

    The Apple Watch is first generation technology anyone that will spend the same on an Apple Watch as they would on a Rolex has more money than brains. People can debate if they think the watch looks nice or is ugly, it's the technology part of the watch that becomes an issue in a few years if that long. 

  • Reply 44 of 112
    brucemcbrucemc Posts: 1,541member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TheWhiteFalcon View Post



    http://www.mondaynote.com/2015/04/12/an-apple-watch-meta-review-reimagined/



    Jean-Louis has a good breakdown of the clickbait reviews (as well as a much appreciated slam of Patel) and what they really say. This is going to be a gamechanging device.

    My opinion as well is that this will indeed be a game changing device, but it will take a few years for this to become obvious to the masses (and perhaps never for the anti-Apple crowd - or more likely it will have been "obvious all along").  I like Ben Thompson's take at Stratechery.   A wearable like ?Watch is the best device to interact with the emerging "internet of things".  This is because the watch is always with you, and can secure your identity much more easily than a "carry-able" like a phone.  A large number of conveniences can be a very powerful motivator.

     

    I like to think of the car fob that can automatically unlock the car door when you touch the handle, and starts the car with a button.  The fob stays in your pocket - no need to reach for it with say gloves on or hands full.  I have had a car with thus functionality for 7 years now, and I really don't want to do without it.  It is a small convenience, but one that just makes your day better.  Now imagine this on an order of magnitude more - my car knows it is me vs. my wife and automatically adjust the seat & mirrors accordingly.  Secure entry to home, office, and of course Starwood hotels.  Secure payments are out of the gate (but need some time to get widely adopted).  Everyone has their own list of uses across fitness, health, connectivity, etc.



    The opportunities that we can see now look very appealing, so imagine what say 3 years of experience will hold.  The challenge of course is that the "internet of things" is only in the very early stages, and is fragmented in devices, protocols, etc.  It is that chicken-and-egg scenario, where the drive to build out the IOT depends upon compatible wearable, and the drive to make a compatible wearable depends on the IOT being there.  Because Apple has the brand power to get loyalists to commit, have focused so much on making it fashionable enough to wear, and with their ecosystem can make the early wearable "useful enough", Apple can jump start this market.

     

    It does sound corny and cliche, but I truly believe in making wearables a real market that will jumpstart the usefulness of the IOT, that "only Apple could make this happen".

  • Reply 45 of 112

    I agree. I compare traditional watches as Buicks and Apple watch as Tesla. And we know what happend to Buick

  • Reply 46 of 112
    mr omr o Posts: 1,046member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Mac_128 View Post



    BTW, I don't think the picture with the Rolex side by side with the watch do it any favors.

     

    He should definitely wear the smaller size of the ? watch as the (bottom side of the) Milanese loop looks awkward: The band should wrap around your wrist, not go straight down from the edge of your wrist.

  • Reply 47 of 112
    brucemcbrucemc Posts: 1,541member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by AtlApple View Post

    ...

    The Apple Watch is first generation technology anyone that will spend the same on an Apple Watch as they would on a Rolex has more money than brains. People can debate if they think the watch looks nice or is ugly, it's the technology part of the watch that becomes an issue in a few years if that long. 


    For the vast majority, it is true that we would not spend so much on a gold edition of a v1 technology product.  But there are people who spend money like that every day on fashion, sometimes for clothes they wear very little.  Such is the life of the wealthy, and there are millions upon millions of these people around the globe.  Purchasing the Apple Watch Edition & then getting a new one in a year or two (should they fancy it) simply fits in with how some people do it.



    And just like their expensive clothes, it doesn't imply the watch will be thrown in the dumpster.  The wealthy may give to family, friends, charity, sell/trade, etc.

  • Reply 48 of 112
    We scheduled a try on to see the sizes in person. A web site can't show you how something looks on your wrist against your skin and bones...

    We completed the try on and while still in the store ordered a 38 Steel with Milanese loop using the Apple Store app on our phones.
  • Reply 49 of 112

    For me, the "killer app" is the one that taps you periodically and suggests you stand up and walk about a bit because you have been sitting too long.

     

    I checked out the watch at the local Apple store this weekend. Not particularly impressed. A bit too chunky for my taste. But, I will get one anyway because I want to see what it is like to wear one for a few days. That itself is worth $350 to me. 

     

    I buy too many Apple products. Why not this one?

     

    I saw and tried out the new Macbook as well. In a word - Fabulous. Like the silver more than space gray or gold.

  • Reply 50 of 112
    My impression was the watches are smaller than photos indicate. The 42 is the perfect size for my wrist and is thinner than I thought it would be.

    Interesting. I had the opposite experience.

    In person I felt like they look way bigger than they did online. In person the 42 seemed massive - even the 38 seemed like a substantial watch...

    Thats why we call these subjective opinions. :)
  • Reply 51 of 112
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,882member
    Unscientific polls are useless. Perhaps slightly better than anecdotal evidence but still useless.
  • Reply 52 of 112
    iaeeniaeen Posts: 588member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by BeowulfSchmidt View Post

     

    Re: Is this guy brain dead?  By sog35.

     

    No, he's referrering to the average price of all units sold.  He suspects the sales numbers will skew even more towards the sport model.

     

    He is not assuming the price of an individual unit will go down.




    $422 is only $22 above the 42mm sport (the "most popular" model). To put that in perspective, Apple would need to sell 435 sports per $10k edition, 35 sports per $1,000 SS bracelet (the one I purchased), and 8 sports per $600 entry level SS. These are really rough numbers, but that is still going to work out to be well above 95% sports needed to maintain that average.

     

    Contrast that with estimates that the pre-order was only about 65% sports (according to the estimates from Slice). That number is definitely off too, but I doubt it is off that much.

  • Reply 53 of 112
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by tadd View Post

     

    I might have pre-ordered a watch after the scheduled try-on but they would only allow pre-orders on-line so at the end of the demo my wife and I went home.  At the try-on, they did not know the complete set of prices.  They had to go into the menus on an iphone-like-device to find out.  That was pretty tedious.  

     

    I had some questions that the Apple sales people couldn't answer:

    1. will there be aftermarket bands for the watch?  Is that something Apple is prohibiting somehow?

    2. What does the watch do or say when it goes out-of-range of the cellphone or if the cellphone is powered off?

    3. Can you get the phone's battery level to show on the clock-face along with the time?

    4. Is the magnet on the Milanese Loop band a danger to credit card magnetic strips in my wallet? 

    5. what software support is there for wearing the watch on the other arm?  Does it move the crown-knob to the other side?  


     

     

    4) - doubt it.. because I carry a money clip that has HUGE magnets in it. never had a problem with the mag strips on my cards.

    5) yes. you can invert the display - so the position of the crown doesn't really matter.. and I'd wager you can flip the band too.

  • Reply 54 of 112
    quinneyquinney Posts: 2,528member
    jinspin wrote: »
    I agree. I compare traditional watches as Buicks and Apple watch as Tesla. And we know what happend to Buick

    GM still makes Buicks. You should probably use Pontiac or Oldsmobile for your analogy.
  • Reply 55 of 112

    Any of those would be fine. They are seen as old people cars sadly for GM.

  • Reply 56 of 112
    slurpyslurpy Posts: 5,328member

    Tried some on today. The Watch is gorgeous and the bands are not only clever and simple, they're attractive and comfortable. I tend to hate watch bands, funny how Apple on its first try has produced what I think are the best and most functionally  innovative bands the industry has seen. 

  • Reply 57 of 112

    Re: Is this guy brain dead?  By sog35.

     

    No, he's referrering to the average p

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by iaeen View Post

     



    $422 is only $22 above the 42mm sport (the "most popular" model). To put that in perspective, Apple would need to sell 435 sports per $10k edition, 35 sports per $1,000 SS bracelet (the one I purchased), and 8 sports per $600 entry level SS. These are really rough numbers, but that is still going to work out to be well above 95% sports needed to maintain that average.

     

    Contrast that with estimates that the pre-order was only about 65% sports (according to the estimates from Slice). That number is definitely off too, but I doubt it is off that much.


     

    I don't think that's as farfetched as you seem to think.  It's possible (mind, I have no data other than past experiences with other, unrelated products, on which to base such an idea, just guessing) that once the early adopters and uber-fans get theirs, the Sport numbers will start to creep up.  "Possible," not a sure thing.  Much too early for someone like me to say.

  • Reply 58 of 112
    eightzeroeightzero Posts: 2,648member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by slickdealer View Post

     

     

    The Apple Watch has a wifi chip.  Apple hasn't spoken much about it.

     

    If you are on a known wifi network (such as at home) it will continue to function over wifi for notifications.  1st party apps will all work fine.  3rd party apps still depend on the phone.  


     

    I'm really curious about this. Apple Watch is clearly an iPhone accessory, and for practically all of it's valuable features, it depends on a connection to an iPhone. Yes, there are many standalone things like the music playback (via BT) and the fitness tracking that are self contained (and of course the clock/timepiece function.) But it seems to me that all Apple Watch needs to do is communicate with your iPhone, and other than a lag issue, I'm not clear why it can't connect via wifi to your iPhone wherever it is. It seems natural to allow it to connect via the same wifi network your iPhone is on (presumably even reading the LI/PW from it when it pairs.) Without a GPS chip, apple watch can't know where it is without iPhone, and if iPhone is somewhere else...well...

     

    I do understand Apple not being thrilled about allowing the watch to connect to an open network on a routine basis. It'll be interesting to see how it pans out.

  • Reply 59 of 112
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by RichL View Post



    31 million is an insane prediction. If Apple sells more than 5 million, the Apple Watch should be considered a massive success.

     

    I agree with you. I would say 5 million would be a low for worldwide sales though.

     

    Honestly, as an investor I'm happy it seems to be doing well. As a consumer/Apple fan/moderate tech geek: I still don't get this product... Good thing success doesn't depend on me! 

  • Reply 60 of 112
    mrboba1mrboba1 Posts: 276member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

    No.  That average is RIDICULOUS.  Could it happen?  Of course anything is technically possible.  Is it possible that the average cost of the Apple Watch will be $10,000?  That is possible too.  But highly unlikely.  Just like its highly unlikely that the average selling price will be $422.

     

    Even if 99% of the watches sold are Sport ( 60% large, 39% small) and 1% is Edition ( $12k average) you are still looking at $497.  That is assuming ZERO steel watches sold.  Even if Edition is only .5% is is still $438.

     

    I'm sorry but $422 estimate is flatout stupid.  If $422 is true than Apple is only getting about 11% of its Watch revenue from the Steel and Gold line TOTAL!  Do you seriously think Apple would invest all that money on advertising and bands to get a skimpy 11% of revenue compared to 89% from the Sport model?  Give me a break.


     

     

    Even if it is 80/19.5/.5 with an avg Edition price of 12.7k (40/30/30 price split) with a 60/40 split large to small, the ARP is 479.60.

     

    Even to get to 423, I have to go to 90% Sport, 9.8% SS, and .2% Edition.

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